Just had a letter from the local school trust.
Further to the communication from central government this evening, the [trust] would like to be in a position to offer what is being
required of schools, i.e. partial opening to key workers’ children and vulnerable
children. However, we do not yet know exactly what is being required/ offered. We
just wanted to let you know that – we will be getting together and drawing up a plan
that we can communicate to you all.We will start planning for this tomorrow and will be in touch to find out what the need
is like in our school community so please check your emails especially if you are in
one of the key worker groups (we don’t as yet have clarity on who that is).
So yes, it does sound like Boris has announced this provision without actually consulting the school trusts that will need to deliver it or having the information ready to give them.
Let’s think about the ramifications of that for a minute.
I’ll be thinking about the ramifications of that for the next six months
I
-
could
have a job on tomorrow.
Mate that I'm working with needs the money more than I do, but can't do it alone. Not saying I don't want the money, but....
Not 100% keen given Merkel was just on telling everyone to avoid social contact and unnecessary movement. However, she didn't say don't do anything specific.....
Isn’t it the same in Germany as most places - travel to/from and doing work is ok?
RM.
Yes, which is kinda contradictory to the avoiding social contac, unnecessary movement and stay at home.
I could work, I don't need to....
So yes, it does sound like Boris has announced this provision without actually consulting the school trusts that will need to deliver it or having the information ready to give them.
I think the point the school is making is that it doesn't know who the key workers are - and why would they? And until they know then they don't know how many kids they need to school.
Instead it’s ‘spreading faster than expected’
Actually it isn’t. It is spreading at the same rate as it has in almost every other country. It is however spreading faster than desirable, because deaths follow cases (at approximately 1%) and the death rate will be what swamps medical resources.
Can anyone remember when Italy imposed the stricter measures, school closures etc.
I was getting optimistic that the new cases had levelled off the last 4 days, but another jump today, so maybe they were just hitting the limit of the daily tests and have increased capacity.
Well arguably, advice that applies in London, where we have hundreds of confirmed cases and over 9 million people packed into a very densely populated city, makes slightly less sense in a sleepy village in rural Northumberland when there are zero confirmed cases across the entire county.
But mostly I’m just interested in the responses here, as my drinking buddies include GPs, consultants, and NHS management who still appear to be keen for a pint tomorrow!😲
A lot of my friends are doctors and some of them are also acting like entitled bellends...
According to your logic then the virus is never going to spread to Northumberland as there aren't any confirmed cases there. Aside from that we know that they aren't systematically testing the entire population & they have stopped testing except for hostpital admissions. We also know that the virus can transmit asymptomatically & we also know that a lot of the symptoms are similar to other common viruses... Given all that how do you know that the virus isn't in your village? ( & health professionals are far more likely than others to be exposed to it.)
But beyond all that..It's about setting the standard of what is acceptable behaviour. The virus has spread around the world at an exponential rate. The only way to contain it is to limit social contact, and yet there are apparently loads of people (many of whom should definitely know better) who seem to think that the restrictions don't apply to them for whatever reason they happen to think up. That is the attitude which will ultimately kill people in their thousands. We are all in this together and if we don't all act together the consequences will be horrific... but you go ahead and enjoy your pint.
In other news, good friends of ours are moving to Aberdeen and have a leaving do booked for Saturday night.
They've decided that it would be safer for everyone to group Skype and get the beers in from the local off license of their choice. We have to rewrite the usual social etiquette over the next few months, but it need not mean that people aren't connected.
I've also volunteered for our community support group so that those who are self-isolating have access to grocery deliveries and whatever goods they need from local shops.
I felt the need to share a little positivity, if we cooperate and work together we might make life more bearable.
Is anyone else slightly terrified the whole economic system is going to collapse? According to the report I read, it states that the current measures will have to be used repeatedly for the next 12-18 months - until a vaccine is developed and rolled out. Sorry, capitalism says no.
I was getting optimistic that the new cases had levelled off the last 4 days, but another jump today, so maybe they were just hitting the limit of the daily tests and have increased capacity.
Hard to know, there's a latency period between contracting & showing symptoms, plus developing serious complications could take longer, then we don't know if they've been struggling in ITU for 2 weeks
Was in lincoln waitrose earlier; easier to list what they did have than what they didn't.
Some expensive soaps left; one of them described as 'scandinavian inspired' but made in China.
Bailgate area is usually busy every evening but....plenty of parking, bars open but few customers and they weren't social distancing.
Even the 'spoons at the dog end of town was pretty empty.
Instead it’s ‘spreading faster than expected’
Actually it isn’t. It is spreading at the same rate as it has in almost every other country. It is however spreading faster than desirable, because deaths follow cases (at approximately 1%) and the death rate will be what swamps medical resources
I think the trouble is that it's going faster than the uk's model expected, or at least than they admitted they were expecting - either one of those tends to destroy one's faith in the establishment, doesn't it ?
Still looking on the bright side at least I'm no longer a randy 18 year old desperate to pull, it going to be slim pickings for quite some time! All I had to worry about in the late 80's early 90's was AIDS and a condom sorted that!
either one of those tends to destroy one’s faith in the establishment, doesn’t it ?
Not in the least. You cannot expect scientists to predict how a brand new disease will behave. The question is, how do they respond? And like many things, you won't know what would have happened if we'd done nothing, and you don't have other outbreaks of the same disease to compare against so scientists could have done a brilliant job and you'd never know. So if you assume they're shit without really being able to tell, it's more about your attidue than their performance.
But mostly I’m just interested in the responses here, as my drinking buddies include GPs, consultants, and NHS management who still appear to be keen for a pint tomorrow!
A doctor in Wisconsin tested positive and they are now testing 200 patients and other staff, including severely immunocompromised children.
Still looking on the bright side at least I’m no longer a randy 18 year old desperate to pull, it going to be slim pickings for quite some time! All I had to worry about in the late 80’s early 90’s was AIDS and a condom sorted that!
As a singleton I'm thinking there could be a dearth of any action for quite some time! I have a lady who is keen to come round on Friday, but she's frontline nhs and I'm not going to lie, I'm not sure I want her infiltrating my nice secure bunker with her germs..
either one of those tends to destroy one’s faith in the establishment, doesn’t it ?
Not really. Nothing in this world is simple, clear cut, black and white - let alone planning to deal with an unknown pandemic.
Is the panic and anger at the government down to the fact that people just can't cope with uncertainty
Not in the least. You cannot expect scientists to predict how a brand new disease will behave. The question is, how do they respond?
Yes, but you can expect them to listen to the wider scientific community as opposed to a listening to handful of homegrown experts whilst ignoring other uk based experts and the rest of the worlds. With sniveling **** wits like Steven Barclay claiming that they are working with the best possible science, shutting down critics and then backtracking.
There are plenty of younger scientists who'd be doing a better job than dinosaurs like Vallance and Whitty as well.
The criticism of the governments statement that it's spreading faster than they expected is entirely valid, they have stated that it is, yet the rate is only as fast as other European countries. That is farcical. Nothing more, nothing less.
I’m not sure I want her infiltrating my nice secure bunker with her germs..
make her wear a condom?
I have a friend currently living in Panama, & he's just sent this:
We understand that many of you live abroad and may be anxious to know about the situation on the ground here in Panama with regard to the COVID-19 virus (“Coronavirus”). Fortunately, the number of cases in Panama remains relatively low, with only 55 recorded cases and one fatality since the first incident was confirmed on March 9. Regardless, the Panamanian government has been implementing very strict measures to prevent the spread of the virus:
* Flights originating from Europe and Asia are now prohibited from landing in Panama.
* Passengers on cruise ships that have visited high-risk areas are prohibited from disembarking in Panamanian ports.
* Only Panamanian nationals and foreigners with permanent residency in Panama are permitted to enter the country, and they are required to go into home quarantine for 14 days immediately upon their arrival (effective March 16).
* All citizens have been instructed to remain at home as much as possible during these first few critical weeks (self-isolation). In addition, they are asked to avoid unnecessary travel, especially to the interior of the country. (To date, the virus has largely been contained in the Greater Panama City area, with only six cases reported in the interior.)
* Employers have been asked to enable tele-working options for as many employees as possible, and to stagger work hours for those who must come into the office to reduce the number of travelers on public transit during peak hours.
* Funds have been released for the immediate purchase and additional medical equipment (mechanical ventilators, monitors and intensive care beds) that would be required should the country see a dramatic increase in cases that require hospitalization. Intensive care wards have also been expanded throughout the country’s public hospitals.
* The Gorgas Hospital laboratory has sufficient test kits to keep up with the current demand. However, 24,000 additional test kits are on order, and some will be distributed to private hospitals to ease the possible burden on public facilities should the disease progress.
* Strict fines have been put in place through the Consumer Protection Agency to prohibit price gouging by local merchants. Additionally, merchants have been instructed to restrict the number of essential cleaning and personal hygiene items (hand sanitizer, bleach, alcohol, toilet paper) for sale to an individual to ensure a steady supply for the general population.
* Special financing will be made available to small businesses who require assistance in overcoming the challenges they will undoubtedly face while the country confronts this situation.
* Fairs, conventions, cultural events, religious gatherings, concerts and sporting events have been banned throughout the entire country.
* Access to beaches, rivers and public swimming pools has been banned.
* Bars, discotheques, night clubs, casinos, theatres, cinemas are prohibited from operating.
* Indoor and outdoor playgrounds, gyms, sports fields and courts have been shut down.
* Restaurants may continue to operate but can only offer take-out and delivery options. In-salon dining is prohibited.
* All public and private gatherings of over 50 people are prohibited, with strict fines imposed on those who violate this sanction.
* Regular public education campaigns are being transmitted through the local media and through the cellular telephone network by the Ministry of Health (MINSA) and the National Disaster Response Unit (SINAPROC) as new regulations are issued by the government.
As a singleton I’m thinking there could be a dearth of any action for quite some time! I have a lady who is keen to come round on Friday, but she’s frontline nhs and I’m not going to lie, I’m not sure I want her infiltrating my nice secure bunker with her germs..
Looks at it this way. If either of you start coughing during the evening you'll then have a full two weeks to work on her...
Can't be too careful.
Nevermind all this coronavirus jibba Jabba, I want to know if tpniker is 'on for one'. Take the above advice and please tell us how it goes <insert meme of Vic reeves rubbing his thighs>
Yes, but you can expect them to listen to the wider scientific community as opposed to a listening to handful of homegrown experts whilst ignoring other uk based experts and the rest of the worlds.
So basically just do what everyone else is doing right?
Not in the least. You cannot expect scientists to predict how a brand new disease will behave. The question is, how do they respond? And like many things, you won’t know what would have happened if we’d done nothing, and you don’t have other outbreaks of the same disease to compare against so scientists could have done a brilliant job and you’d never know. So if you assume they’re shit without really being able to tell, it’s more about your attidue than their performance.
Well, there was a number of countries where it started in advance of ours; perhaps look there to see what transpires.
Don't fancy that ? OK, get the views of some respected scientists & epidemiologists (tick), crunch some numbers (tick, I assume) and then publish your workings at least amongst the relevant scientific community (X)
The approach of the government (not strictly that of the CMO and CSA, though they were pretty much "in the room" all the time), has smacked of a combination of hubris and condescension, mixed with insufficient planning / preparation. If not these then utterly shitty communication.
Poor, could should do better
I just came across this documentary from 2018 - an experiment carried out on spread of a flu like pandemic. Well worth watching if only for Dr Hannah Fry.
Contagion: The BBC Four Pandemic
Sounds a bit like the Event 201 Coronavirus Pandemic Simulation from October last year...
There's all kinds of conspiraloons kicking off about it on twitter, but then again, there's always folk spouting nonsense for attention!!
https://twitter.com/reb0rn13/status/1221478727038775296
https://twitter.com/ItsTommyDee1/status/1221200857758425088
https://twitter.com/ComicDaveSmith/status/1240364178193424384
Just passed spoons on way home from work, it’s as busy as ever.
Every cloud has a silver lining.
So basically just do what everyone else is doing right?
No. What scaredypants said and also...
It's clear that the government were using outdated models and operating from a pandemic guide that was three years old designed for a flu outbreak. The relevant wider British scientific field had not been consulted properly, they had not been approached to verify the accuracy of the initial models that were being used and we had not engaged foreign scientists and their work with the rigor that was needed.
In short, as scaredypants stated, arrogance and hubris.
Sorry, capitalism says no.
I’m not sure capitalism exists right now, who knows if it will after?
I’m not sure capitalism exists right now, who knows if it will after?
I'm pretty sure it does and in its purest most unbridled form. Are the measures being put in place to ensure the minimum loss of life or the minimum economic loss?
So there’s 4 confirmed case in Northumberland.
Is the panic and anger at the government down to the fact that people just can’t cope with uncertainty
No, I think it's more down to shit planning and lack of a clear direction in time of crisis.
or the minimum economic loss?
if you take away demand there is no market. No market, no capitalism. The losses were inevitable once they calculated that sacrificing 5% of the population would probably create mass social disorder (which it would have). The question is whether free market ideologues have the will and the skill to run a command economy. That’s where the risk of collapse is. It’s why we probably need a unity govt.
The government will do whatever it needs to do to protect the existing capitalist system. After all it is in hock to it.
They’ll try, yes. Will they succeed though?
Probably.
Probably
In time yes. It took 30 years for the free marketeers to regain control after WWII. This could be bigger.
This thread has definitely disappeared down the rabbit hole.
One for Drac - in the store cupboard....an Alnwick Rum christmas pudding, home made in Alnwick.
I don't mean the pudding is for him/her....
One of Sarah’s they’re delicious.
Good to know Drac; excellent choice on my part!
Frank what do you mean by going down the rabbit hole? There are changes occurring in the economy, society, and politics of a magnitude, speed and scale across the world that have never occurred before. When the politicians and media use the word ‘unprecedented’ they’re not making it up.
Interesting the Archbishop of Canterbury tonight likened what’s happening in the UK to a nuclear bomb going off. He’s probably about right, and it’s happening all over the world. We children of the Cold War might have been worrying about the wrong thing.
London:
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1240427621848092672?s=21
TfL are giving the same standard response to all queries on twitter:
https://twitter.com/tfl/status/1240433221369724929?s=21
Daz - the endless speculation, increasing signs of paranoia, uninformed comment on this thread make quite a melange and it's one that I'm opting out of.
There appear to be a couple of posters with some scientific knowledge but other than that - what is there other than what I referred to in my first sentence?
I don't disagree about the changes we're experiencing but it's far from clear these will be permanent.
We (however you choose to define that) have experienced 'unprecedented' events in the past and, as the shake-out proceeds, find that the new world is not dissimilar to the old one.
This could be different; who knows?
In the morning I will be contacting my local council to discuss setting up a community support group with a focus on the elderly and others who may be self-isolating.
My children are now adults leading their own lives but if they were still dependants I would be talking with them rationally and responsibly, basing my comments on established facts and not speculating.
Globally, the risk of a viral pandemic has been long acknowledged, war-gamed and then ignored by politicos. The most recent example was during the transition from Obama to trump; will post link when I can - then I'm out.
The science has always been there - not fully developed - but the wilful dismissal of 'experts' by politicos is unforgivable.
When this passes, as it will, do you think there will be a significant increase in NHS funding or change in how it's managed?
I would like to think so but doubt it.
One last thing to add, the ECB have announced plans to buy EUR750 bn of corporate bonds to support the euro; UK's efforts so far are looking thin compared to that and the US (trump notwithstanding).