Check the exchange rates. Capital flight from “winging it” UK is on going… some serious statements about containment and securing household income needed this week. Including for renters, employees and self employed. Keeping companies afloat, and giving home owners some breathing space, is not enough.
According to Boris, antibody test is close.
I’ll get interested when it’s not just bullshit Boris saying it, though.
Liverpool Echo announcing and picked up by others but then again... my brother has an engineering company and phoned the number for fabricating parts for respirators.... answer phone and no response from them?
binners
Well what a surprise? Who’d have thunk it? 5,000 fans fly in to Liverpool from Madrid – the epicentre of the Spanish outbreak – mingle in the city’s pubs and bars for a couple of days, then cram into a packed football stadium and they’ve managed to spread a virus?
Well nobody could possibly have foreseen such an eventuality
I know... you couldn't make this stuff up.
irc
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested
I was reading a comparative paper between that and others earlier. It was 17% non-symptomatic
The testing was also carried out over intervals allowing some (if imperfect) extrapolation on those going on to develop symptoms later...
Would you have gone to the pub 3 weeks ago in London?
Aimed at me? No, I would not have. Those that did have no blame on them though, advice has been so slow to come from official sources. You have been told now. Flick back through this spread and read about the “lag” before being confident that you are in an area with no infection.
Again. You are not at risk. Others are. Act accordingly.
Frank, got a link?
All I could find was
A source close to Sadiq Khan, London's Mayor, said: "We expect a shutdown of London, but nobody in central Government is saying when that will be or what form it will take.
News from Taiwan… they selective closed schools by geographical region, centrally controlled, to stop spread. They didn’t just leave heads to wing it.
[ edit : they also had 2 weeks of blanket closures extending the holidays last month – I still expect we’ll do the same with the Easter Hols ]
That can't be right - Vallance said Taiwan hadn't closed schools. And he's an expert, yes?
Put it this way: say we are 3 weeks behind London up here. Would you have gone to the pub 3 weeks ago in London?
The question is SHOULD you have gone to the pub 3 weeks ago in London?
Vallance said Taiwan hadn’t closed schools.
He was wrong. Most schools were closed for two extra weeks… they extended the holidays. And geographical closures, based on testing and contact analysis, have been essential in containing the virus.
Also, have a look at what Taiwan and Singapore have done in schools. It’s a long way from our bustling corridors, no temp testing, no hand gel, kids spitting on each other breeding grounds.
Gavin Williamson is a ______
Sorry, but that “spreading faster than expected” line has riled me. The cheek.
Schools closed, except for children of key workers.
DrJ
That can’t be right – Vallance said Taiwan hadn’t closed schools. And he’s an expert, yes?
Well he's being rather selective ... "Taiwanese schools reopened on 25th February after an extended CNY break."
but take a time to scroll through the list... because if closed and reopened under special measures is the best he can do... ???
https://www.iscresearch.com/cornavirus-covid-19-update
Johnson now telling us that schools are very safe environments. Maybe his school was.
Johnson now repeating Williamson’s statement that schools close for most pupils on Friday.
Well he’s being rather selective … “Taiwanese schools reopened on 25th February after an extended CNY break.”
but take a time to scroll through the list… because if closed and reopened under special measures is the best he can do… ???
He's getting a lot of shit from other scientists on twitter for this.
Sorry, but that “spreading faster than expected” line has riled me. The cheek.
Faster than we expected, not faster than every other expert on the planet expected. We based ours on the best possible science. Bigly Science! Better than thems foreign science!
Not really, if you decide not to take any measures at work or getting to/from work simply to prove a point then it’s simply a self-fulfilling prophecy.
So you believed a GP but not me. Thanks for proving my point.
Drac will be taking EVERY precaution.
Damn right and more if I can, I have been following the guidelines for weeks and upping my infection control as much as possible.
Schools closed, except for children of key workers.
The irony of me forgetting to mute my phone and being woke by that. It fits in with what my kids school announced they expected to happen last week.
Vallance using terms from his GSK days like "agile".
Bellend.
Rayban - source was radio reporter reading message from Khan's office on his behalf.
Live update ...according to local rag...
1950 confirmed UK cases ...
then ...following the breakdown directly underneath
Latest figures from the Department of Heath and Social Care state that the number that 56,221 people have been tested in the UK, of which 53,595 were confirmed negative and 2,626 were confirmed as positive.
My local is delivering beer by the bottle. Order online, it arrives that day.
This is how I'm supporting them.
Serious question: Thursday night is pub night. Do I risk it tomorrow?
Isn’t your wife diabetic?
If mine was I’d not be breaking the social contact recommendations.
Well that's a lot of kids screwed prematurely with regard to exams, should have made that decision after Easter. Be interesting who defines which kids are from key workers. Also be interesting to see how teachers will be expected to teach over the internet as well as baby sitting key workers kids. Typical Johnson though, make big decisions others will have to work out how to implement.
They’ve delayed as long as the could (or longer). If they could have safely left this measure ‘till the Easter break, they absolutely would have.
That’s also a massive difference between asymptomatic infections (about half) on the ship, and the town in Italy (about 90%).
I’m not sure about his maths, and it would seem the rest of the world isn’t, too.
The cruise ship maintained an overall fatality of 0.91%.
The cruise ship over 70s demographic, fatality rate was 7.3%
Other thing with the cruise ship they gave the infected the antiviral remdesivir as part of an experimental trial, so no way of knowing if that skewed the data.
Also be interesting to see how teachers will be expected to teach over the internet as well as baby sitting key workers kids
For 2 weeks the high school here have been planning for this, homework packs, online access and websites to use. Any half decent school will have been doing the same. They don’t have to wait until the day before the schools close to plan this.
I meant the decision about the exams not going ahead, not the schools closing.
Serious question: Thursday night is pub night. Do I risk it tomorrow?
Pros:
– Could be the last one for quite some time.
– I suspect our local would be very grateful for the business.
– There are currently NO confirmed cases in Northumberland.
– Beer.Cons:
– Potential death.
The governments 'strong' advice is to avoid going to pubs, in order to avoid increasing the death rate, reduce the strain on the NHS and to ensure that the overall damage of the virus, both health & economic, can be reduced in the long run.
Can you explain why you think the advice doesn't apply to you?
Pound is ****ing tanking isn't it. Lowest point against the dollar since when?
The yanks are giving cheques out to every citizen according to sky. Universal basic income from Trump? LOL!
Sky saying this is partly a correction from the post Boris election Brexit confidence.
Unintended consequences etc
The yanks are giving cheques out to every citizen according to sky. Universal basic income from Trump? LOL!
They're not cheques. They're vouchers to spend at Mar-A-Lago on Trump merchandise
Talking of the orange one, did you hear his pres conference? It was nice of him to point out what the hospital ships look like. Apparently, they're big and white with a big red cross on the side of them.
Who knew?
I meant the decision about the exams not going ahead, not the schools closing.
I didn’t reply to that part.
Same as yesterday it’s a press conference not an in-depth report, details will follow.
I meant the decision about the exams not going ahead, not the schools closing.
Oh, my response was harsh then. Sorry. Yes, too soon… although I think the end decision was likely to be the same, they should have waited, and made it clear what they were going to do instead at the same time as announcing cancellations. So much speculation already about how Alevels will be awarded.
Drac, schools have been planning to teach kids at home, not teaching kids at home whilst also looking after kids in school, big difference.
Sky saying this is partly a correction from the post Boris election Brexit confidence.
What confidence?
Just passed spoons on way home from work, it's as busy as ever.
Jesus wept.
data here has been updated with some new graphs
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
Right.
For AA and all his colleagues who volunteer or need to continue to work so myself and others can support those who need us. If you choose not to for yourself or family then I completely understand. As nation we all need to do what we can to look after ourselves, our family and the nation.
It’s going to get difficult, it will test us all but we will fight on.
Right I’m nearly at work about to inundated with today’s guidelines.
Just passed spoons on way home from work, it’s as busy as ever.
Jesus wept.
Seems to be a theme. Girl at work's husband was walking through Leicester city centre earlier. Pretty much deserted except for Spoons which was rammed full.
Looks like the 'determined to be Brexity bellends' contingent are determined to be bellends. If I lose my job I will be volunteering as a police auxiliary (even if it isn't a thing) and getting ready to go in, rubber bullets and CS gas first, questions (in words of one syllable) later.
Isn’t your wife diabetic?
She is - but she is massively more likely to get it from work than from me going to the pub.
Can you explain why you think the advice doesn’t apply to you?
Well arguably, advice that applies in London, where we have hundreds of confirmed cases and over 9 million people packed into a very densely populated city, makes slightly less sense in a sleepy village in rural Northumberland when there are zero confirmed cases across the entire county.
But mostly I'm just interested in the responses here, as my drinking buddies include GPs, consultants, and NHS management who still appear to be keen for a pint tomorrow!😲
For 2 weeks the high school here have been planning for this, homework packs, online access and websites to use. Any half decent school will have been doing the same. They don’t have to wait until the day before the schools close to plan this.
No, but until they know what's expected of them, they can't make any decent plans. Other than "closing on Friday", there isn't much else they can make plans around. Will there be exams? When are the kids coming back? Will some of them need to be in? Still nack-all planning they can do.
My analyses looks a bit like the FT rebasing of the epidemic plot and I've been providing them since Sunday and I update them daily from the ECDC. Sadly the UK deaths have accelearted outside of my prediction interval (100 deaths by Wednesday was a threshold), based on other countries at a similar point in the epidemic. Cases are doubling at the same rate as previously.
The exponential growth is due to unrestricted supply of susceptibles, and the past deviations in China and South Korea are not due to herd immunity (fewer susceptibles), but contact restriction. Closing down contacts is the correct decision. Closing the schools is the same correct decision.
The thing about populations is that, given the right data, they are reasonably predictable. And when ALL reasonable predictions predict bad, you MUST act.
spreading faster than expected
2 points there,
my son's yr 2 class, 1/3rd are off today , paranoia, cold or covid?
Which brings me to my 2nd point , we don't know because we're not testing
We can't model or track the spread if we don't have accurate sampling data, only testing those bad enough to present in hospital only gives a tiny snapshot of what's going on.
And it's obvious to all that we don't have the resources & possibly enough kits & testing labs set up.
It's the reason the containment phase collapsed so quickly
Of course no minister is going to admit we are so unprepared & under resourced
Instead it's 'spreading faster than expected'
Of course it is!, you've no idea what to expect because you're not testing & leaving it until now to close schools with so little data is a massive gamble. (If kids are more likely to be asymptomatic the true extent of spread could be much much bigger than realised)
As a scientists I'm very upset that the scientific advice seems to have been so off- or certainly what the advisors & Johnson were saying at the pressers
Going back to trump's presser - yes, he was atrocious as usual but compare'n'contrast what the US are doing to support workers and the economy with UK's actions to date.
johnson and his crew need to up their game massively to shore up the economy.
I'm not ignoring the healthcare side of this - I'm very interested and concerned in that but it's outside my area of knowledge
Schools close on Friday indefinitely.
Let's think about the ramifications of that for a minute.
Gov announced help for rent-payers, though I missed the details as I was out delivering milk and Weetabix to mum and g/f thanks to today's round of shopping zombies strip-mining everything in a ten-mile radius.
Would you have gone to the pub 3 weeks ago in London?
At eight quid a pint, would I **** as like.
For AA and all his colleagues who volunteer or need to continue to work so myself and others can support those who need us. If you choose not to for yourself or family then I completely understand.
Not sure it'll be voluntary!! Also not sure how it will work, for me as a secondary school teacher I would expect most kids should be able to look after themselves, its the vulnerable kids, the abused kids and the neglected kids that I worry for but would they even come into school......worrying times.
I'll happily staff a school library or whatever for those kids that need looking after!
Going back to trump’s presser – yes, he was atrocious as usual
"Try to stay apart. Social distancing they call it. No more than 10 people in a room."
"Believe me, no one knows more about Covfefe virus than me. Bigly." 🤦🏻♂
What confidence?
They missed the word 'trick' off of the end.