The other point is, the WHO report on China stated
The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare
as they found asymptomatic cases went on to present symptoms later.
So maybe all the 90pc figure is telling us is that they were testing people promptly.
We need a test to find out who's had it. 🙁
No it isn’t, it’s whataboutery. You could equally say there’s no point in an IT manager working from home because brickies and plasters don’t. If a child mixes with his/her peers at school it’s still well worth avoiding the dozens random people of all ages you meet doing outside interests. Including kids from other schools.
My 8yo understands it. It’s not complicated.
Quote honestly... you seem to just be defending a straw man.
The entire school environment could pretty well have been designed to transfer infectious diseases.
My 10yr old still has a rather interesting definition of washing... More often than not at weekend dinner he comes to the table having "washed his hands" but seems to have completely missed the mud. When he eats out (and at home) he'll get food half way round his face and especially if we are out being a self conscious 10yr old boy then goes to wash it off... yet noone would be in any doubt what he'd just eaten as its still all over his face.
Quite honestly the idea he won't pick up a football, pen, pencil sharpener, library book whatever without washing his hands before he sticks them in his nose or mouth is a lost cause as is it most likely for the next kid to pick up the same.
After using a tissue to open the doors to the Dr's surgery yesterday I asked which bin to put it in...the GP just shrugged and said they we pretty much the same now. I used the clinical waste one because it had a foot pedal!
She's got 3 school age kids and told me she fully expects to be infected from then not the surgery.
You could equally say there’s no point in an IT manager working from home because brickies and plasters don’t.
complete whataboutary.... the IT managers kids are not likely to be brickies or plasterers living at home. I'd also expect CaOH to be a rather effective killer of a virus that survives by it's oily covering... but that's perhaps just a bad choice of profession.
same conclusion, got to use one or two isolation measures like a safety valve
I hadn't got round to reading it yet. Astonishing.
I have. Its likely this will be far worse than the banking crash.
Not sure you have. The two don't even compare. The banking crash was a single systemic problem fairly easily solved by throwing a lot of money at it. This is nothing short of a revolution in the way economies and nations across the world will function. And if that twitter thread is correct in that it's going to be like that for up to two years, then it's not going to be overturned easily.
Quite so. So what is humanities toolkit, beyond the social measures?
Vaccine - right at the start of a 14 month 'will it kill people' trial.
Some mitigating antivirals, being trialled in china for effectiveness.
Start building an awful lot of forced ventilation machines.
What else do we have on the go?
She’s got 3 school age kids and told me she fully expects to be infected from then not the surgery.
I’ve 2 school age kids. I fully expect I’ll be more than likely infected through work then home. Hope that things out.
Oh and tissues go in none clinical waste.
In between the dark humour, and wide eyed amazement at what’s going on, I’m genuinely terrified of where this will end up.
The Government will award itself sweeping powers to do all sorts of things under the guise of protecting the economy, looking after its citizens (hah!) and stopping the virus. They won't necessarily consult any experts on it, they'll tell the experts what they want the answer to be and then work from there via various mixed messages, leaks, U-turns and perhaps the help of the odd well-trained journalist or friendly diaster-based newspaper.
They'll then use them at will for all sorts of "other" stuff that they don't like.
Meanwhile, the NHS will never recover from the battering it's taken - the last 10 years of austerity have been small-arms fire compared to the bunker-buster that's about to hit it now. And then it can be sold off to the Americans. And in 5 years time, people will look about them in a daze and then vote the Tories back in again.
#crystalball
We need a test to find out who’s had it. 🙁
According to Boris, antibody test is close.
I'll get interested when it's not just bullshit Boris saying it, though.
I’ve 2 school age kids. I fully expect I’ll be more than likely infected through work then home. Hope that things out.
Three school kids here. Most people in my small office are being careful about washing etc. I expect to be hospitalised from slipping down the steps while carefully not holding the bannister. Or breaking a finger trying to open a door without touching the handle.
For people getting excited about over zealous Facebook spam blocking earlier:
I’ll get interested when it’s not just bullshit Boris saying it, though.
It’s just Boris he’s repeating what experts have said.
A friend’s 8 year old stuck a Lego man up his bum yesterday. Then lost the head when he pulled it out, but fished it out separately. How in god’s name he’s going to be able to keep to the required hygiene standards I don’t know...
No it isn’t, it’s whataboutery. You could equally say there’s no point in an IT manager working from home because brickies and plasters don’t. If a child mixes with his/her peers at school it’s still well worth avoiding the dozens random people of all ages you meet doing outside interests. Including kids from other schools.
My 8yo understands it. It’s not complicated.
Quote honestly… you seem to just be defending a straw man.
The entire school environment could pretty well have been designed to transfer infectious diseases.My 10yr old still has a rather interesting definition of washing… More often than not at weekend dinner he comes to the table having “washed his hands” but seems to have completely missed the mud. When he eats out (and at home) he’ll get food half way round his face and especially if we are out being a self conscious 10yr old boy then goes to wash it off… yet noone would be in any doubt what he’d just eaten as its still all over his face.
Quite honestly the idea he won’t pick up a football, pen, pencil sharpener, library book whatever without washing his hands before he sticks them in his nose or mouth is a lost cause as is it most likely for the next kid to pick up the same.
After using a tissue to open the doors to the Dr’s surgery yesterday I asked which bin to put it in…the GP just shrugged and said they we pretty much the same now. I used the clinical waste one because it had a foot pedal!
She’s got 3 school age kids and told me she fully expects to be infected from then not the surgery.
Your post doesn't address my post at all.
You could equally say there’s no point in an IT manager working from home because brickies and plasters don’t.
complete whataboutary….
Yes, I was giving an example of similar whataboutery, that was my point.
It’s just Boris he’s repeating what experts have said.
Same as "herd immunity" you mean?
International cooperation is far form nonexistent…
https://twitter.com/nvondarza/status/1240291543115878406?s=21
…but needs ramping up.
kelvin
SubscriberFor people getting excited about over zealous Facebook spam blocking earlier:
Yeah, that lines up with what I've seen- there were things like live broadcasts getting blocked last night. I thought maybe they'd tried to adapt the spam blocker to deal with fake medical advice etc but this seems just as likely.
Managed to convince my Father to come back a week early from Egypt, he's got a flight out on Saturday. The nice Egyptian state appear to be jailing people for questioning the official outbreak numbers or suggesting what the true infection rates are.
I don’t know why the town in Italy, and the picture seen by WHO in China differs so much on this point.
The ICL paper claims the data in China indicates 40-50% of cases are unreported.
This doesn’t suggest they had a cast iron grip on just how many infections symptomatic or not occurred.
In that town in Italy, it reads as if the testing rate was more or less 100% symptoms or no symptoms?
For people getting excited about over zealous Facebook spam blocking earlier:
So not an over zealous government. Who would have guessed.
that's the gist of it, complete blanket 100% testing, so they could establish a true picture of the infections
small town, mind... unlike Wuhan with 11 million.
Announcement (of some form) on schools coming from the government at 5pm.
[that info is from NEU updating members via email]
London lockdown coming by Friday, was informed by a well placed friend. Now it's popping up in the FT and Telegraph.
Seems that one of the blokes from work who came in last Friday Ill, has now been diagnosed as having it. I sat near him for the morning until he decided to go home.
Wobder if I have it? No symptoms so far.
He reckons he picked it up at the Liverpool Madrid game last Wednesday.
Thanks, sorry I was fixated on the line above.
Good news, means the death rates are (typically) overestimated by a factor of 10 and since there’s no test for antibodies in people who’ve had it that number doesn’t include people who have had it in the past and didn’t know they had it.
That depends on how widely Italy is testing and how good their contact tracing is. 10 asymptomatic people doesn't translate linearly to an overestimate of death rates by a factor of 10.
You are making shit up without knowing anything about virology or public health.
10 asymptomatic people doesn’t translate linearly to an overestimate of death rates by a factor of 10
Fair point. So all we can conclude, is the face value fact - lots of people will have it, and have no symptoms.
USA/Canada border closing.
If that doesn’t cut through to the “it’s just like a cold, I’ll see you down the pub” brigade, what will?
Footage of funeral pyres of the tens of thousands of weekly dead maybe.
that’s the gist of it, complete blanket 100% testing, so they could establish a true picture of the infectionssmall town, mind… unlike Wuhan with 11 million.
It actually strikes me as being more dangerous in a way.
A virus that can kill in large numbers but remain symptom free in a large portion is going to be extremely difficult to control.
It’d be interesting to see how many of the carriers without symptoms went in to develop symptoms
He reckons he picked it up at the Liverpool Madrid game last Wednesday.
Well what a surprise? Who'd have thunk it? 5,000 fans fly in to Liverpool from Madrid - the epicentre of the Spanish outbreak - mingle in the city's pubs and bars for a couple of days, then cram into a packed football stadium and they've managed to spread a virus?
Well nobody could possibly have foreseen such an eventuality
was informed by a well placed friend
you are Laura Kuensberg and I claim my £5!
Lockdown or guidance
well placed in front of his keyboard? Was on Telegraph website 4 hours ago 😂was informed by a well placed friend
Some french teenagers quite happy to hide and play with police . But overall , people are sticking to it . Today sunshining and mid twentys temperature not helping .
We have a massive garden , and family all living on same plot , so not a big issue .
I still work , retirement home and adult special needs , doing catering but trying to avoid contacts and leaving early . no cases yet but when it does it will be deadly .
Deffo going riding tomorrow , i have all the passes to be out and about .
This guy has a different take on it.
According to him no country has tested a random sample of the population to establish the infection rate. So we lack infomation to make decisions.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University
well placed in front of his keyboard? Was on Telegraph website 4 hours ago
I would complain about the speed of his completely free advice to GTFO of London - but I try not to read the Torygraph.
Or...
the “it’s just like a cold, I’ll see you down the pub” brigade
Serious question: Thursday night is pub night. Do I risk it tomorrow?
Pros:
- Could be the last one for quite some time.
- I suspect our local would be very grateful for the business.
- There are currently NO confirmed cases in Northumberland.
- Beer.
Cons:
- Potential death.
You will not die.
Others may, just because you wanted to go to the pub…
The answer seems obvious to me.
Sadiq Khan's office saying no decision re lockdown.
If, at some point, it happens:
- neither the met nor the army have sufficient manpower to police it effectively
- how many renters will try to escape back to mummy & daddy outside london and, possibly, bring infection with them
Interesting times.
Yeah, but... BEER!
I’ve 2 school age kids. I fully expect I’ll be more than likely infected through work then home. Hope that things out.
Not really, if you decide not to take any measures at work or getting to/from work simply to prove a point then it's simply a self-fulfilling prophecy. Equally it depends what your profession is... if you are a Forest Ranger I'd expect the chance of exposure at work is rather low and can be made even lower. If you are working on a checkout it's pretty high as you handle everything that needs scanning and you would need to be thinking about it all the time, not touch eyes, mouth,face.
Drac will be taking EVERY precaution.
his guy has a different take on it.
That's also a massive difference between asymptomatic infections (about half) on the ship, and the town in Italy (about 90%).
I'm not sure about his maths, and it would seem the rest of the world isn't, too.
The cruise ship maintained an overall fatality of 0.91%.
The cruise ship over 70s demographic, fatality rate was 7.3%
You will not die.
Others may, just because you wanted to go to the pub…
Missus is frontline NHS. I'd be very surprised if we get through this without being infected, but as I say, there are NO confirmed cases here.
Put it this way: say we are 3 weeks behind London up here. Would you have gone to the pub 3 weeks ago in London?