They’ve made that very clear.
HAH!
School – Stay open. Clear, unequivocal, not mixed.
Yep
Other – Social distancing.
Utterly pointless if you are in a school mixing with 1000 or so people a day.
Its a mixed message, now the science may or may not be right but the message isnt getting through.
Meanwhile partial closures are doing what with the virus? Spreading it more or spreading it less?
Lamd of my fathers just closed all schools by friday!
That ‘authority’ diminishes rapidly …
That has not been my experience. It just requires different approaches as they get older.
I've had the same conversation three times today with different children
"Aw Dad,....Do I need to go to school?"....
All three are at school , as are all of their friends.
Edit: For the rest of the week as Nicola Sturgeon has just announced that Scottish schools will close on Friday
Worry about the things that you have the ability to influence.
Sending your kids to school, or not, is very clearly one of those things.
schools are necessary
They get shut for two months every Summer in France and two weeks in the Autumn and two weeks over the festive season, and two weeks for skiing and two weeks at Easter and the country still manages to be one of the most prosperous on the planet.
They're shut now and Madame and the kids are still working. I haven't had a peep out of her all morning she been so busy keeping the kids amused on line.
They get shut for two months every Summer in France and two weeks in the Autumn and two weeks over the festive season, and two weeks for skiing and two weeks at Easter and the country still manages to be one of the most prosperous on the planet.
As part of the planned curriculum. 🤦🏻♂️
They’re shut now and Madame and the kids are still working. I haven’t had a peep out of her all morning she been so busy keeping the kids amused on line.
She’s probably on chaturbate.
She’s probably on chaturbate.
lol wut?
Scottish and Welsh schools closing according to Sky. Scotland for 6 months!
Utterly pointless if you are in a school mixing with 1000 or so people a day.
suggest reading the imperial paper
As part of the planned curriculum
Do you think the schools that are currently open to all kids are following the planned curriculum still? All teachers I know are currently looking after double or triple sizes classes… they’re just supervising and keeping kids away from home, for the sake of adults carrying on with their work, they are not teaching to the curriculum.
Scottish and Welsh schools closing according to Sky. Scotland for 6 months!
how ever thats not what was said - thats putting words in the first ministers mouth
what was said was "cannot promise they will open before the summer" which is far from will remain closed for 6 months.
IT may come to that , but to be clear she didnt say "schools are closed for 6 months" today.
Scotland for 6 months!
Planning for everyone (where possible) to be at home for the foreseeable is wise. Proper mitigation can start then. Many education publishers are making their books available online for free. More material and guidance so that education can be ongoing can now be made available, and I’m sure will be. If things change, and schools can open after Easter (I’d be suggesting exam years only at first) that’s a great bonus, and no one would resent the help made available for learning at home, because whatever happens some kids will be doing so next term.
Double "t" in chatturbate and possibly another "e": chatteurbate.
Do you think the schools that are currently open to all kids are following the planned curriculum still?
Yes a pandemic is definitely part of the national curriculum. Of course not closing schools for holidays is not the same.
My eldest has popped home for some course work, her teacher is not expected to be on for tomorrow. She’s going to stay at home, catch up with her course work and log onto the school network for any additional homework. It will mean one less pupil for the school to be responsible for while they are low on teachers.
Aaaaaaaaaaargh
Any thoughts on how to coral errant parents?
Shops yesterday, dentist today (although it sounds they really had their biosecurity nailed on) and now apparently the traveling hair dresser is round. Still not convinced them roadside plant sales shouldn't be a thing this summer. Atleast my Dad dosen't have the strength to start his big chainsaw these days.
What they say is it will overwhelm the NHS that’s been made clear, you have noticed they’re cancelling none urgent surgery from next month. They’re trying to contain the virus the best they can to a point when the NHS is in a better position. They’ve made that very clear.
That isn’t what Vallance was saying yesterday when Jeremy Hunt was questioning him. The point I’m making is I think he still wants this to work it’s way through the population or at least some of it to reduce the R0. He actually said again yesterday he believed it couldn’t be contained (despite the success China has had).
ray of sunshine:
sky news story about how lockdown and rigorous testing - the entire town population - isolated the infected and stopped new infections.
They're reporting in that town that 90% of infections are asymptomatic, which is huge.
Sort of implies if our confirmed cases is around 2k here, then that's around 18k that are invisible.
Mind you, if we have 70 dead from it now, at 1% mortality, that would imply 7000 infections as of about 10 - 14 days back. Four day doubling period, so 7000 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 56k total. Which I guess is the sum the gov are doing right now.
if only 10% of those 56k show symptoms, then the self isolating, who don't show up in confirmed (tested) cases, must be, what, about 3 or 4 thousand ?
suggest reading the imperial paper
+1
That isn't how it works, those probabilistic models on the Washington post should be able to help people work that out.
how ever thats not what was said – thats putting words in the first ministers mouth
what was said was “cannot promise they will open before the summer” which is far from will remain closed for 6 months.
IT may come to that , but to be clear she didnt say “schools are closed for 6 months” today.
Away with your nuanced and understated position. This is a crisis and you shall use sufficient hyperbole until you, your family and close contacts are reduced to jibbering wrecks.
I see that France are threatening us now, if we don’t get our shit together.
Living overseas I fear the UK is shortly going to become a 'red' country with no travel to/from Denmark allowed.
Spain has nationalized its private hospitals, we're paying them £300 per bed per night.
Profit before people! Why aren't we being nudged by the rest of Europe?
Should point out that all the Spanish schoolkids are still studying, just online. Young Miss mogrim has been busily writing English and Spanish essays and doing economics exams, just using Google Classroom instead of a paper notebook.
Obviously not as good as having a teacher in front of you but not that bad.
how ever thats not what was said – thats putting words in the first ministers mouth
what was said was “cannot promise they will open before the summer” which is far from will remain closed for 6 months.
IT may come to that , but to be clear she didnt say “schools are closed for 6 months” today.
Either missed the "up to" part or Sky are were putting words in her mouth. Apologies.
Why aren’t we being nudged by the rest of Europe?
We are, but our lot will probably only take note when they blockade the UK.
So Wales and Scotland are far behind London yet close schools first?
Makes perfect sense if you weighting social and economic modelling more highly than epidemical modelling.
Makes perfect sense if you weighting social and economic modelling more highly than epidemical modelling.
Starkly exposed it.
The economic modelling will change when we become further isolated from the rest of the international community.
Utterly pointless if you are in a school mixing with 1000 or so people a day.
No it isn't, it's whataboutery. You could equally say there's no point in an IT manager working from home because brickies and plasters don't. If a child mixes with his/her peers at school it's still well worth avoiding the dozens random people of all ages you meet doing outside interests. Including kids from other schools.
Its a mixed message, now the science may or may not be right but the message isnt getting through.
My 8yo understands it. It's not complicated.
They’re reporting in that town that 90% of infections are asymptomatic, which is huge.
Your factual contributions have been excellent but I don't think the sky article you quote says that. Maybe it comes from somewhere else? If true it would be tremendous news.
Spain has nationalized its private hospitals, we’re paying them £300 per bed per night.
Profit before people! Why aren’t we being nudged by the rest of Europe?
They haven't nationalised them, they've said they are available for public use if needed and they've got not choice in the matter. When the state of emergency ends they revert to 100% private control. And the state is also paying for this.
OOB
Professor Crisanti warned that that for every patient that shows symptoms for COVID-19 there were about 10 who don't.
OOB Professor Crisanti warned that that for every patient that shows symptoms for COVID-19 there were about 10 who don’t.
Thanks, sorry I was fixated on the line above.
Good news, means the death rates are (typically) overestimated by a factor of 10 and since there's no test for antibodies in people who've had it that number doesn't include people who have had it in the past and didn't know they had it.
That would also mean it’s more than estimated infectious surely.
My 8yo understands it. It’s not complicated.
Maybe he can explain it to you, come back later when he has.
If you have managed to avoid all utter bell-ends so far today yet feel you’ve missed out on Coronavirus rage then check out the delightful Laura Perrins below,
https://twitter.com/lperrins/status/1240178331020152833?s=21
If you have managed to avoid all utter bell-ends so far today yet feel you’ve missed out on Coronavirus rage then check out the delightful Laura Perrins below
There are times when you wish you were in charge of the B ark passenger list.
When you open something and it's using a bold serif typeface for body copy, it's a safe bet it'll be the ramblings of a lunatic.
The internet equivalent of writing a letter to the Daily Telegraph in green ink
The economic modelling will change when we become further isolated from the rest of the international community.
The economic stuff is mind-blowing. Western Europe, and many others are essentially moving to a command economy with governments underwriting all economic activity. The UK and US seem to be desperately trying hang on to what's left of their obliterated market systems. Instead of bailouts (for small businesses) we have loans, instead of jobs and income protection we have benefits, and pretty soon they'll probably try to protect shareholders and private capital. And they say ideology isn't driving the response?
The lag in taking the proper economic action will hinder or even scupper the public health effort. The europeans have figured this out, they know they'll have to do this anyway so better to do it now to minimise both economic and more importantly the health impacts. At some point we'll have to do it too to avoid complete collapse. Has anyone really understood the enormity of all this? I'm trying to get my head round it but it's impossible. And the consequences if they get it wrong?
Oh, and we just heard year 8,9 and 10 in my kids school are closed from tomorrow. Once again events are ahead of the government.
Has anyone really understood the enormity of all this?
I have. Its likely this will be far worse than the banking crash.
Most people seem more concerned about whether the schools are open or not, as opposed to the imminent economic armageddon.
The disaster capitalists didn't even need to wait for Brexit. They've got their perfect storm 8 months early
Ker-****ing-ching!
Good news, means the death rates are (typically) overestimated by a factor of 10
Not sure its that much.
China reported 3% (ish). They may have tested reasonably widely, reported 20% hospitalisation, IIR. Perhaps a portion of their "mild" cases were also asymptomatic. Difficult to know.
Italy much higher (9% ?). I don't know if Italy initially did much testing beyond those presenting with symptoms, your assumption seems to make sense for their figures, and gives the mortality figure (1% ish) assumed by the UK gov.
The other point is, the WHO report on China stated
The proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare
as they found asymptomatic cases went on to present symptoms later.
I don't know why the town in Italy, and the picture seen by WHO in China differs so much on this point.
that's the same report I posted a while back dazh
same conclusion, got to use one or two isolation measures like a safety valve