No, if you would be a little more British about this rather hysterical. The point was don’t take your germs into work where you stand a good chance of passing it onto someone with a vulnerable relative or friend.
Totally missed my point I was replying to the melodramatic comment saying that someone was evil for considering going out for a walk whilst covid positive once the rules change. Not suggesting people go to work but obviously that will also happen at some point once testing stops.
From the Bbc 'Hospital cases are falling and, despite the large wave of Omicron infections, overall deaths have not risen above what would normally be seen in winter'
saying that someone was evil for considering going out for a walk whilst covid positive once the rules change
Who said that?
I might have had a day or two off
From mine and friends experience the current variant is just like a slightly bad cold.
That was what the "all right Jack" comment was about, the outdoor walk once the rules change was just sandwiched in there. And describing that comment as "calling someone evil", is very, well melodramatic. For nearly all of us, this virus has always been very much "just like a slightly bad cold", if we even notice that we have it all... that is and never has been the point!
Totally missed my point I was replying to the melodramatic comment saying that someone was evil for considering going out for a walk whilst covid positive once the rules change.
Did someone here say that?
Positive for the third time here. Sore throat and general mild flu like symptoms.
^^ Sorry to hear that Wally.
What space of time are these three infections over, if you don't mind me asking?
MoreCashThanDash
Full Member
Totally missed my point I was replying to the melodramatic comment saying that someone was evil for considering going out for a walk whilst covid positive once the rules change.Did someone here say that?
We’d almost certainly left the house for a walk if it wasn’t illegal.
Yeah, that sounds really great. It’s not like anyone more vulnerable than you could catch it and die like the hundreds of other people that died yesterday is it?
I wasn't even referring to your comment as being melodramatic Kelvin. It was the comment directly above mine from Reeksy. It was melodramatic to the max including bringing in all the deaths from the previous day. Very judgemental and unnecessary.
Poopscoop - my 3 infections were 30 Aug21, 19 Dec21, 30 jan22.
Catching Omicron + shortly after original omicron is apparently pretty common.
It was the comment directly above mine from Reeksy. It was melodramatic to the max including bringing in all the deaths from the previous day. Very judgemental and unnecessary.
Maybe - but it does have the benefit of being true. All of those deaths are as the result of them catching the virus from someone else, and although going for a walk on your own is extremely unlikely to be that cause, stopping routes of transmission remains a key aspect of controlling the virus at 'manageable' levels (which may indeed mean that it can't be absolutely controlled and there will be deaths every day from now on)
You have the virus, you could meet someone on your walk, you might pass it on to them, they might get a bad reaction to it. Probability ^4 might be negligable but it's not zero.
My opinion, based on a very unscientific study of 'people I know' - those that protest and reject hardest against this sort of very low level rule breaking know they shouldn't be - it's not misunderstanding. Come out and say it, admit that you are taking a risk but in your opinion that's a societal risk that you're prepared to accept on the basis of your assessment of how low it is and the benefits to you. I'm OK with that now, we're into living with Covid. Others MMV
(fwiw if I have covid I would isolate. But I'm back into life, going to events and gigs, doing my pre-event lft's, still wearing a mask in shops, so my life is not risk free any longer and I don't mean to be judgemental - glass houses etc.)
While it's great that excess deaths are currently below the average for this time of year, the reason for this is that we have artificially suppressed it via vaccination and restrictions.
We are proposing to remove the second of those, and first is likely to become less potent as we approach the spring, because it is anticipated that booster immunity will begin to wane at around the three month mark.
We are still getting 60,000 positive tests a day in an environment where people are less likely to be testing, and more likely to be asymptomatic. The national survey suggests a significant percentage of the population currently has an active infection.
Things are markedly better than last January, or even a bad flu year, but the sensible thing to do at this point is not necessarily to declare the pandemic over, pat ourselves on the back for 'emerging from the pandemic first', and carry on as if it doesn't exist.
This is not yet purely a seasonal virus like flu, if immunity wanes while its prevalence is still high, we could yet see rates of serious illness and death creep up.
Johnson got very lucky with his call not to lock down over Christmas - if Omicron had been even a fraction more lethal (which he didn't know when he made it), then it would have been an epic shitshow.
True, but 'I'd rather have lucky generals than good ones'
He got lucky this time - not so lucky in March 2020 and January 2021. Or at least, it wasn't so fortunate for the rest of us.
Day 10 still positive, still feel knackered but the feeling rough moments have subsided. Absolutely bored out of my skull and being sat indoors for 10 days has done no good for mental state.
Anyway back to work tomorrow thankfully.
While it’s great that excess deaths are currently below the average for this time of year, the reason for this is that we have artificially suppressed it via vaccination and restrictions.
As excess deaths have been much higher for the last 2 years they have to drop below average at some point, people can only die once after all. Vaccinations have obviously helped though.
For those of you still very worried about covid, what do you intend to do once the isolation requirements are lifted?
Johnson got very lucky with his call not to lock down over Christmas – if Omicron had been even a fraction more lethal (which he didn’t know when he made it), then it would have been an epic shitshow.
Third time lucky, eh? Shame about the tens of thousands of deaths when his first two gambles with public health didn't work.
stopping routes of transmission remains a key aspect of controlling the virus at ‘manageable’ levels
It may be, but supressing people is far more dangerous now than supressing the virus. If people are scared then they have the choice to stay home and shut themselves way. The damage that controls imposed on society causes should not be unerestimaged, not least to children.
They are the single biggest casualty of all this; we have a tidal wave of mental health hitting us. In my home town, across two school, there have been four suicides in the last 18 months. I have TWO friends whose kids have tried repeatedly to kills themselves (and CAMS have done nothing, and I really mean the square root of eff all!)
Whatever we did we made a monstrous mistake closing the schools. As for the rest of the controls, I think the vast majority of people from the third quartile or higher on trait neuroticism are done with the controls. Any other residual anxiety is therefore your own problem.
we made a monstrous mistake closing the schools
Who would have taught?
How would you have stopped pupils infecting each other?
How would you have stopped pupils infecting family members?
How would you have got pupils to and from school?
judetheobscure
It may be, but supressing people is far more dangerous now than supressing the virus. If people are scared then they have the choice to stay home and shut themselves way. The damage that controls imposed on society causes should not be unerestimaged, not least to children.
They are the single biggest casualty of all this; we have a tidal wave of mental health hitting us. In my home town, across two school, there have been four suicides in the last 18 months. I have TWO friends whose kids have tried repeatedly to kills themselves (and CAMS have done nothing, and I really mean the square root of eff all!)
Whatever we did we made a monstrous mistake closing the schools. As for the rest of the controls, I think the vast majority of people from the third quartile or higher on trait neuroticism are done with the controls.
Firstly the situations you mention are awful. I helped a good friend go through the long process of her son being diagnosed as schizophrenic. It almost tore their family apart. Social care, the other safety "nets" for the vulnerable wete in tatters before Covid. Covid has just amplified the effect of a decade of cuts.
The arguments for lockdown and schools having to close have been done time and time again on here though. How would children have coped mentally knowingly they likely infected their grand parents when going to then after school till mum/ dad finished work? That's just one example.
The closures and lockdown were not without cost, it was a blunt tool but it was all we had. It's worth remembering that much of the populous had so little faith in government that individuals and institutions/companies instigated their own measures before the government did.
Once again, not a single person on here ever said how great lockdown was, they just acknowledged the obvious need.
Any other residual anxiety is therefore your own problem.
Could you clarify that please?
@kelvin, agreed. I then remember how often he's been wrong (see Adam Rutherford's excellent new book "Control" for examples of Cummings lack of understanding of genetics)
On a different note, I brought my 91 year old mum from her care home to mine for lunch for the first time in 2 years. She's very frail but I judged the benefit to her of her seeing her grandchildren outweighed the risk to her health - not just COVID, a bad cold would probably kill her.
It was a difficult decision, I hope I was right. In effect I'm balancing her happiness against the risk of killing her.
What are peoples thoughts on boosters for 16+? Seems almost pointless considering she caught Corona in Jan and given and the short effective life span of said booster. 12 year olds second dose will be due around the same time and I’m wondering about that as well, I reckon that one is more likely to be “needed” in case she goes abroad?
Greater medical minds than mine are still in favour of jabs and boosters. As I have no information to suggest they are wrong, my kids are getting jabbed and boosted as and when we are told they should be.
Needing to be jabbed for foreign travel later in the year is a bonus.
Yeah that’s defo the way I’m leaning, they should have them but actually booking one anywhere near home isn’t possible which makes me think the program is getting knocked on the head…
(#overthinking on a Sunday)
Are any UK countries definitely planning fourth vaccine jabs yet, for the presumed waning benefits of the third jab? It can't be far off ~6 months since the elderly and extremely vulnerable groups began to get their third jabs.
UK countries definitely planning fourth vaccine jabs yet
They're starting to offer them to people here in Scotland - immune-suppressed etc.
My 15 year old had their second jab yesterday (delayed because of infection/illness when the first jabs were becoming available). Will be getting a booster (they are type1 diabetic) as soon as possible as well.
the short effective life span of said booster
I think there is a lot of misunderstanding around waining at the moment… but I’d rather someone like @TiRed updated us on that than add to the confusion myself.
4th jab for my poorly neighbor a week or two ago in England
My 15 year old had her second last Monday. It’s still better than no second one and immunity following infection.
I’m now almost 2 weeks post positive test Ave today is one of the worst I’ve felt.
I think there is a lot of misunderstanding around waining at the moment… but I’d rather someone like @TiRed updated us on that than add to the confusion myself.
Study published by the Israeli group on boosting and Omicron.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.06.22270533v1
The half-life of antibody decline is again about two months from that data. Which means that protection from symptomatic infection is waning. The levels for protection against serious morbidity are much lower, and that has been noted in the UK where omicron hospitalisations have been averted by boosting. The loss in potency (aka immune escape) by omicron meant that we still have the same protection from serious disease a month or two after dosing, as we had from symptomatic infection from the first waves.
What I anticipate will be omicron-specific vaccines, that provide greater protection against symptomatic infection, and these will give LONGER duration of protection against hospitalisations. Likely extending to annual protection.
Personally, I think we have been lucky with omicron, in that the boosting has given enough protection to avert last winter's huge (alpha) hospital burden and associated mortality (and lockdown to control spread). We've learned from that, which is why restrictions are being lifted. Relying on luck is not a strategy, however, so we will have effective medicines and protective vaccines (probably in 2022-23).
Yeah that’s defo the way I’m leaning, they should have them but actually booking one anywhere near home isn’t possible which makes me think the program is getting knocked on the head…
(#overthinking on a Sunday)
Daughter should have had second jab at school last week, but couldn't as it's just inside the deadline after she had Covid back in November/December. She is booked in next week though. 🤷♂️
She's booked in at the vaccine centre I had done a couple of volunteering shifts at over Christmas, but they are obviously scaling back as they've had no spare volunteering slots since mid January.
The levels for protection against serious morbidity are much lower
Should have said: The antibody levels required for protection against serious morbidity are much lower...
Which means boosting still gives us protection from serious disease, but you may well catch it and have symptoms. That seems to have come to pass. Although I've not yet tested positive thus far!
*facepalm. Taking the piss more like.
Washing your hair with piss will ensure social distancing and breath holding by others. Which could indeed reduce your likelyhood of catching infectious respiritory diseases.
Susan Hampshire must be feeling smug.
CDC have published an analysis of vaccine efficacy, confirming the lower potency and waning noted by UKHSA. I think that the picture is becoming clear and looks as I thought (and said) some months ago. Antibodies are good, they protect from serious disease. Vaccines are an efficient way of providing antibodies. The role of cellular immunity is less clear.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7107e2.htm
During the period of Omicron predominance, VE against COVID-19–associated hospitalizations was lower overall and waned with time since vaccination: VE after a second dose declined from 71% within 2 months of vaccination to 54% among those vaccinated ≥5 months earlier (p = 0.01). Among recipients of 3 doses, VE against COVID-19–associated hospitalizations declined from 91% among those vaccinated within the past 2 months to 78% among those vaccinated ≥4 months earlier (p<0.001).
The sad thing is the number of unvaccinated they still have as a denominator.
Ministers to stop supply of free Covid tests to universities in England
Higher education leaders were informed of the surprise decision only on Wednesday. Universities also appear to have been told they cannot distribute any remaining stocks of LFTs past the end of this week.
FFS! What's the point of this??
arrghghhhh
What’s the point? No testing, no data.
Just ordered a box for my student daughter, so that when we next visit elderly relatives she can test before we pick her up on the way.
I think we all know how paying for testing is going to end. Human nature is what it is. People can only hoard so many lateral flow tests. How about a respiratory illness lateral flow test, with flu, other HCoVs and perhaps rhinovirus in one test? People might pay for that utility given the mixing with the vulnerable.
I’d be more concerned when they announce closure of the ONS survey. Because that truly has been a landmark effort that has guided the direction of the epidemic. It’s our altimeter.
Where next? Well I don’t think it’s all over. SARS-CoV-2 has a propensity to surprise. Omicron was a huge eye opener and the first significant immune escape. Fortunately not so far that vaccines had no utility. I am not convinced of ever reducing pathogenicity, but omicron was the first wave into an immune experienced population (90%+ seropositivity). After some mass vaccination boosting, we came out pretty well. Next time we just need to be prepared rather than reactive.
We’ve got about nine months to prepare I think.
TiRed
Full MemberI’d be more concerned when they announce closure of the ONS survey. Because that truly has been a landmark effort that has guided the direction of the epidemic. It’s our altimeter
Aye, I think this is an utter scandal, why in the name of... would you stop tracking that data?
@TiRed - looking at the Australian modeled scenarios for the past two months is interesting. Hospitalisations and deaths fell far below any of the curves (obviously i can't comment on the methodology). In some states there was no real spread until December, but everywhere had good vaccine coverage.
(of course I can't find the weblinks now!)
I get that there is scientific advice, and political/economic factors, both valid and not so valid, but how much influence do/should the people at the sharp end of dealing with the virus have in policy decisions? Do the NHS bods have a voice that feeds into SAGE or do they feed in to the government through the Department of Health?
why in the name of… would you stop tracking that data?
Someone wants to say they 'got covid done'. Reducing the availability of testing is the perfect way to make clear that you have no interest in protecting those who remain vulnerable to this, as you're making it harder for the people who need to mix with them to do the responsible thing and check themselves beforehand.
Do the NHS bods have a voice that feeds into SAGE or do they feed in to the government through the Department of Health?
SAGE are irrelevant now... I mean, they shouldn't be, but the "following the science" line has been dropped... it's politicians only driving this.
We’ve got about nine months to prepare I think.
[ narrator ] "They didn't prepare, they ignored the issue and relied on the good people working in the NHS to deal with any fallout from their decisions."
Deltacron variant is now starting to appear and spread across the UK, Over 200 covid deaths in one day this week is still a big problem, take away incidental deaths and the contributing and main cause figures are probably still concerning, we dropped down to single figure deaths per day last summer so just when you think we're winning another variant rears it's ugly head.