Good morning all.
Our local community seems to have been hit a bit this week with Covid. Local primary school - roll of just over 90. > 50 of the kids have now tested positive.
However and thankfully, appears to be minor symptoms - scratchy throat, runny nose, etc. Immediate families generally testing negative still.
Given talk of building immunity, why is it that children seem less impacted - I assume their immune systems are less mature and have generally not been exposed to viruses over time in the same way as adult/older? This is obviously fantastic but seems to contradict building immunity considerations.
Thanks.
From BBC article about reducing isolation to 7 days if negative LFT on day 6 and day 7...
"And people ending isolation on day seven are strongly advised to limit contact with vulnerable people, not visit crowded or poorly ventilated spaces, and work from home."
So we're back to another bit of vague Covid advice?
If you do a job which cannot be done at home, do you go to work or remain off until 10 days isolation is up?
If your job normally involves numerous colleagues not wearing masks often having no regard for social distancing, do you stay off work?
Or do you go in, play the non-mask wearers at their own game and spread the Omicron love?
Will employers start counting isolation days beyond 7 towards attendance reviews?
How are employees going to prove they did a proper LFT and are still positive?
Especially while we still don't know how Omicron is going to effect the general population, with many not having had 2+ weeks since their booster, why is our **** government putting economy above health?
Well seems i have joined the list of infected. Got pinged on Monday, had done a lateral flow earlier that day and it was negative. Got my PCR and while waiting on results did another lateral flow yesterday (still negative). No symptoms at this point so was sure i'd be OK - had my booster last weekend plus over the weekend had only been in contact with others in the supermarket where everyone had on masks and outside on the bike with 7 or 8 others which i thought was relatively safe. I'm not aware of any of them being pinged. However despite this last night got my message of a positive. Arse. Woke up this morning with a bit of a cough and a slight sore throat. Hopefully thats all and doesn't get worse from here on!
Felt a bit like the Grinch that stole Christmas filling in some contact details for tracing...
Assuming the variants and fatality rates stayed the same, has someone actually put a theoretical estimate on where we would actually be now if wed gone for a “let it rip” tactic from the start?
Given that Covid is on the death certificate of over 160,000 people now (not checked the corrected ONS data for a while) despite all our restrictions, I reckon that original 450,000* estimate would be pretty good.
Along with many more with serious ongoing conditions, and much less accessibility to other hospital treatments for other illnesses and conditions.
Would be interesting to know what a revised figure might look like.
*and remember the estimate that they had an average of 10 years life left, possibly less if we'd let it rip through the vulnerable unchecked, maybe 5 years?
Is there any scientific data driving the reduction in isolation time or is this just an attempt to get more people back to work? Given that our health secretary had trailed on interviews before the announcement I suspect the latter.
I'm wondering about the case where one starts doing lateral flow tests on day 6 of isolation and keeps getting a positive result each day up to and including day 10. If symptomless can they leave isolation on day 11? I can't see anything on the government website to say they can't, but it seems a bit inconsistent with the new approach.
While I was looking to see if there was anything about that I realised that I have one more day of isolation than I thought: I didn't get symptoms until the day after my positive PCR test, and the onset of symptoms following a positive test where there have previously been none resets the counter.
Given the clear and obvious impacts that the lockdowns had on reversing growth rates, it's probably reasonable to extrapolate the growth rates prior to lockdowns for at least a part of the future, before accepting that once most of the trees have burnt down, the forest fire starts to go out. What nu,mber that is we won't ever properly know, but substantially higher than the 160K we had is entirely feasible
Given talk of building immunity, why is it that children seem less impacted – I assume their immune systems are less mature and have generally not been exposed to viruses over time in the same way as adult/older? This is obviously fantastic but seems to contradict building immunity considerations.
IANAD but I recall that the most serious situations with Covid are due to overactive immune responses - cytokine storms - leading to multiorgan failure. And hence the immature immune system in the young might avoid this? Why a vaccine that preps the immune system for Covid helps to prevent this - as I say IANAD but I'm sure there are smart people looking at this and multiple papers written / being written on it.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7527296/
government putting economy above health?
‘Twas ever thus as long as I can remember.
Re the 7 day thing… when I had covid in the summer I did a few lfts after just for shits and giggles. It went negative on day 9.
The advice to limit mixing and work from home till day 10 when lft neg is really unhelpful and shows it’s not based on science. If you’ve got a job where you could work from home there was nothing stopping you working from home on day 8-10 post covid before. If you’re a nurse on icu or a DPD driver will you be forced back to work regardless?
The advice to limit mixing and work from home till day 10 when lft neg is really unhelpful and shows it’s not based on science. If you’ve got a job where you could work from home there was nothing stopping you working from home on day 8-10 post covid before. If you’re a nurse on icu or a DPD driver will you be forced back to work regardless?
That's my concern. I suspect there is conflicting scientific advice and the government has chosen the one that suits their plan to reduce disruption from isolation and appease CRG headbangers.
I have been invited for my 4th jag, or second booster. Maybe my 3rd was actually a 3rd Primary Dose? It doesn't show on my vaccine certificate as that though.
For context, I am on an immunosuppressant therapy, but all the reading I did suggested the dose I take was just below the threshold for a 3rd Primary Dose.
I am not complaining and already have my sleeve rolled up! Roll on 28/12, exactly 3 months since my last jag.
I have been invited for my 4th jag,
That is interesting...
Mrs_oab had letter this morning confirming her weekly infusion of antibodies/new immune system will include covid antibodies as of next batch she collects. This is great news, and should now start providing some protection ongoing. 👍
What are folk’s thoughts on schooling in the new year? Specifically the chances of it going online again… we’re well set either way, but still an ongoing conversation topic with friends!
Who knows what'll happen, but as it stands, schools will be back. It's non essential stuff that's restricted - sport, entertainment etc.
I work in in college and we've not heard anything about remote learning next term. Just waiting for Boris to tell us.
Hoping it is remote for a couple of weeks to keep everyone safe. Last week there were a lot of staff and students off with Covid so it's not a safe place. As far as I am aware, I've not had it yet. That puts me in the minority at work.
There certainly is the political will to keep schools open. Closing schools sends the signal that things have gone very wrong. If this is the case, there may well be a number of other signals too!
Schools will need to be "safe" and staffed, as well as attended. The expectation that learning can be delivered simultaneously in person and online for the same cohort is unrealistic. There is just not the time for teachers to do both to do both. If you are teaching a class in front of you you cannot be overseeing online stuff at the same time.
Ironically many schools we be in a better place to manage online learning now resources have started to filter through. We have issued Chromebooks to over half the school - but they only arrived in November, and we were being promised them since the 1st closure.
There are unlikely to be perfect scenarios. When the time comes, a decision needs to be made on which is the least bad option.
Government advice on ending quarantine early
"anyone ending isolation on day seven is strongly advised to limit contact with vulnerable people, not visit crowded or poorly ventilated spaces, and work from home"
Health Minister on radio 4.
"Health minister Gillian Keegan says the new rules for when people can leave isolation based on testing "will relieve some of the pressure" on staffing in health and social care settings.
"
Must be those outdoor care homes with healthy young people she's talking about.
Daughters school have asked us to do LFTs before they go back and will be doing them on the first morning, but have said that they expect to be back as normal.
Though they have said that they have contingencies in place in case they have to go online. To be fair, they have been excellent all the way through, we've been lucky.
“anyone ending isolation on day seven is strongly advised to limit contact with vulnerable people, not visit crowded or poorly ventilated spaces, and work from home”
Health Minister on radio 4.
She never actually said any of this though, simply 'exercise caution' - ymmv etc.
The intention/evidence behind this (separate arguments) is irrelevant if the messaging isn't clear. I'd wager most people will take away nothing beyond the 'only have to isolate for 7 days now' bit.
To add a similar anecdote to those above, I have had two close contacts this week that have left me under no illusions I am probably going to get it. Been doing LFTs every day since - all -ve. Sore throat as of late last night/this morning, still -ve LFT. Had to ignore the official list of symptoms in order to book a PCR.
Why a vaccine that preps the immune system for Covid helps to prevent this
Antibodies don't just neutralise viral replication, they help kill infected cells and speed viral clearance and disease resolution. The RECOVERY trial showed that seronegative do worse than seropositives when admitted to hospital with COVID19. But if you give people without antibodies exogenous antibodies at admission, this restores the effect. They found large and highly significant mortality and length of stay effects.
That means you really want to be seropositive when you meet the virus for the first time, and the easiest way to do so is via delivery of a vaccine. The higher the antibody response, the better the outcome. That's also been noted in a U.S. trial of hospitalised patients.
Other treatments such as tocilizumab (that mops up a cytokine called IL-6) and anakinra (mops up IL-1), and lenzilumab (GM-CSF) all try and prevent further downstream immune signalling when one has progressed to serious COVID19 disease in the lungs. But antibodies at infection give the immune system a head start to limit course of disease progression in the upper respiratory tract, with some protection in the lungs.
Thanks TiRed.
I'm just a scientist that likes to understand things, it's in the nature to read and wonder. Great to have someone who actually knows stuff here!
RLFT's have run out at my local pharmacy. What a joke!
I feel like I have a light cold right now. Gotta work later today.
RLFT’s have run out at my local pharmacy. What a joke!
Same here, I've just managed to order some online though and hopefully they arrive before Christmas although I have my doubts. I have one last test that I'm saving for when I go back to see my family.
Can't think of many times where it would be worse for there to be a shortage of tests..
Just been chatting to a well connected teacher friend. She's heard from someone in our glorious ruling party that lockdown will probably be Monday onwards and schools are expected to return on time.
Main issue with schools is staffing - she's fairly senior and can't find agency staff at all. Same as with the fire brigade and ambulance - lack of staff may mean no sporting events due to no cover.
I went to 6 local pharmacies on Saturday morning trying to find some lfts as both kids coming home from uni. Nowhere had any. Got a code via online to enable collection. Pointless if no stock. In the end my son got some from a drop in place in the city centre and my wife has ordered some more for delivery. I think we have enough for 2 more each before Xmas…
Indeed, it's somewhat misleading to be issued a code for something that doesn't exist.
Main issue with schools is staffing
Same here in primary care, we could do with some locum cover, but the chances of getting any are NIL.
We got some lft's on Monday. They hadn't set the stall up in the town centre this time and just had a bloke with a sign and a few boxes on a trolley giving them out. They are official thankfully, no fakes
Meanwhile up to one in five folks are swanning about with covid and no symptoms ?
Meanwhile up to one in five folks are swanning about with covid and no symptoms ?
20% of the population have Covid, or 1 in 5 people with Covid have no symptoms - used to be 1 in 3 iirc?
I went to 6 local pharmacies on Saturday morning trying to find some lfts as both kids coming home from uni.
That's ironic because universities have tons of them - they could have brought a load back! If there's a uni local to you, you might be able to get hold of some.
I work for a uni - went to campus yesterday, picked up two boxes of LFTs. On local radio here they're advising you to go to 'local pharmacies or a university', so it seems to be open to all.
Yeah in the end daughter had brought back a full box plus 4 spare. This wild goose chase was before we collected her from the station though, so I was unaware. She didn’t say cos she thought she might’ve forgot to pack them… Son had two odd ones left in his room to add to the stash.
They certainly have better access to them than the rest of the population. Including their parents that work in the nhs…
Same here in primary care, we could do with some locum cover, but the chances of getting any are NIL.
But but but the government made a song and dance about extra funding… a winter access fund no less… how has that not done the trick?🙄
Is covid likely to settle into a similar Northern/Southern hemisphere cycle as flu? AIUI one of the reasons we have effective flu vaccines is because data from one hemispheres flu season can be used to prepare the jab for the other side, but covid variants seem to move around the world much faster at the moment
Just ordered a box of LFT's on the government website, no issues at all.
In related news, my wife has had a raging headache, runny nose and general lethargy for the last 2 days. 2 LFT's and a PCR are all negative so it seems you can still just get a nasty cold even in Covid times.
Just ordered a box of LFT’s on the government website, no issues at all
Out of interest where are you? Locally it seems to be on permanent no delivery slots available (too late anyway four out of five of the family now have it).
On the positive side they have just reopened a drive through testing center locally which does away with the two forty mile round trips we made earlier in the week to get tested easier
lunge
Full Member
Just ordered a box of LFT’s on the government website, no issues at all.In related news, my wife has had a raging headache, runny nose and general lethargy for the last 2 days. 2 LFT’s and a PCR are all negative so it seems you can still just get a nasty cold even in Covid times.
I though that for the first 2 days, tested positive on day 3. I'd keep on with the LFTs for a day or 2 yet, just to be sure.
Is covid likely to settle into a similar Northern/Southern hemisphere cycle as flu?
I would suspect not, flu is less infectious so needs the proximity and indoor occupancy in winter. Covid seems to manage without this. That being said i am sure that we will see peaks of infection in winter the same as flu. But I would think we will see an underlying level of infection year round unlike flu where it pretty much disappears in the warmer months
Ordered ≠ received
😀
Just wandered into a local chemists and picked up a box of lfts. The one next to the surgery had its usual queue of a dozen people waiting to get in to collect their prescriptions, the next one was busy and no lfts left but expecting a delivery tonight. Drove 2 miles walked into an empty chemists shop and they had a big box full waiting to be handed out. Just luck of the draw.
Cases in Scotland have been increasing for around a month now, with barely any change in hospital admissions. Admittedly the first part of the case increase was largely delta, but Omicron must be largely responsible for the last couple of weeks. Tentatively this has to be good news.... ?
I think other regions showing something similar, it's just the travelling tabby site for scotland was the best one I could find showing cases and admissions on the same chart..
It's important to note that the graph only shows data up to 16th December.
Here's the same for the UK as a whole.
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It’s important to note that the graph only shows data up to 16th December.
Thanks, I hadn't clocked that, some of the other charts on the site are updated daily. Looks fairly stable over last few days too.
It's the rolling 7-day average - hence the delay. The Admissions/Deaths figures are one day behind Cases too.
Admissions are definitely not following cases like in Jan, but I think it will be some time next week when we will be able to tell for definite.
Admissions are definitely not following cases like in Jan, but I think it will be some time next week when we will be able to tell for definite.
It's that two week lag between infection and admission that is making this so hard to call at this stage. You'd hope previous experience would be pushing people more towards caution.
