The question we are all waiting on is was there enough slow the flow upstream of Christmas to prevent the need for major hard engineering.
It's a good analogy, in the sense that by the time floodwater is surging through the town, it's too late to deliver an engineering solution. Putting a hard lockdown in place at that point is the equivalent of evacuating the population onto the nearest hill so they can watch homes and livelihoods washing away.
If you get to a point where you have to lock down hard because you haven't done anything to mitigate the flow, then economic damage is more severe regardless of your approach.
dazh - I'm shocked because of the very fact she's exposed everyday at work, then deciding to spend her Christmas at a busy pub with 2 elderly parents and a son, who quite frankly doesn't give a toss.
Edit, She doesn't work on a covid ward (has in the past).
reckon we’ll get a pretty strong signal within the next five days from the severity of our own hospitalisations, which will then guide restrictions from the 27th. It’s now too late to do anything prior to Christmas, so that intergenerational mixing is baked in for the first couple of weeks of January.
Also, why is the BBC still giving airtime to Heneghan? Wasn’t he one of the Great Barrington types floating around in November 2020 with Gupta saying Covid was basically over and there was no sign of a second wave? I had to turn the TV off sharpish this morning because they decided to give Peter Bone a platform, presumably for ‘balance’.
Don't know how to quote the tweet but Omicron case detection also lags so wouldn't there be less lag between detecting omicron and hospitalisations?
Waiting to see if our defences that we have invested heavily in will work is not dithering.
It’s not understanding the flows involved either, is it. Knee deep in sewage because established defences were insufficient (after being warned by those that put them in place that they are likely to be this time) is the wrong time to start thinking of putting emergency flood defences in place.
[ /analogy ]
To be honest your friend is far more exposed at work so why would she be too worried about going to the pub?
My Mrs is a nurse, is masked and PPE'd up for the whole shift, is only allowed to take her mask off to eat, has to put it back on for the rest of her break. Every patient in her clinic is screened by phone before they arrive, and they keep their distance. They've been doing this the whole time, only recently just going mask only as opposed to mask + visor.
How is that more at risk then standing at a bar, with no mask on, raising your voice to get over music/chatter etc, surrounded by drunk folk that don't give a ****?.
stolen from grauniad comments
Steve Baker and the Covid Resurgence Group.
Worst band ever.
I’m shocked because of the very fact she’s exposed everyday at work, then deciding to spend her Christmas at a busy pub with 2 elderly parents and a son
So what are you saying? That NHS workers shouldn't go down the pub or spend time with their families? That's what it sounds like, and I completely disagree. It's entirely up to your friend and her family to assess the risk and make those decisions within the rules and she should be able to do so free from the judgement of others. That's all any of us can do, including those working in the NHS.
TBH NHS workers are having a hell of a time right now so I'd go as far as to say they should make extra efforts to do these things to protect their mental health and general wellbeing.
How is that more at risk then standing at a bar
Fair enough maybe she's not at more risk. Doesn't change the discussion on whether she should go down the pub or not though.
It’s entirely up to your friend and her family to assess the risk and make those decisions within the rules and she should be able to do so free from the judgement of others.
Agreed.
I have a feeling the start to 2022 is going to be a lot more difficult than it needed to be.
We’ve been here before haven’t we?
Deja vu all over again.
Fair enough maybe she’s not at more risk. Doesn’t change the discussion on whether she should go down the pub or not though.
someone had a drunken 1am rant about not socialising with teachers in my cricket clun whatsapp group, ahead of our annual xmas drinks last tuesday.
They didnt show up. my brother and his partner (teachers) did show, as did an NHS physio. We had a lovely time (private room in a pub), and nobody [has admitted that they have] caught covid.
Professions that already get a lot of crap, have poor pay, and are having a real problem with retention (teachers, nurses and carers) do not need to be ostricised from socialisation for the next however many years because people are worried about them being contagious.
..
ajw - agreed
So have you all basically given up on the vaccines having any effect then?
If youse are right, that's grim as F. I really hope you are all wrong.
What i was poorly trying to get across was the fact, she's taking her 18 year, who I'm almost sure isn't vaccinated. I thought he wouldn't be allowed in the pub, because surely he has to show his pass.
Yes she is absolutely entitled to a good time. Yes, she knows the risks. I personally wouldn't but then again I'm a bedwetting, hiding behind the couch type, who tries to think of others.
So have you all basically given up on the vaccines having any effect then?
Not me! 🙂
because surely he has to show his pass.
But we don't have vaccine passes. Why would he have to show one? There's a lot of debate over whether vaccines are effective in teenagers so why is it a big deal? If he doesn't have covid symptoms and hasn't tested positive then he's as free to go to the pub as anyone else.
I personally wouldn’t but then again I’m a bedwetting, hiding behind the couch type, who tries to think of others.
The implication being that NHS workers shouldn't go down the pub or socialise and if they do they're being reckless and not thinking of others? Good luck with that line of reasoning. It's exactly the sort of judgemental nonsense that's poisoning the whole debate about what restrictions etc are needed and is fuelling the anti-vax let it rip brigade.
It’s being to look a lot like covidmas 🙁
Nah vaccines are great and the other treatments, definitely in a waaay better place than last year but not out the woods yet.
But we don’t have vaccine passes. Why would he have to show one?
If it's a private venue within reason they can set their own admission rules, can't they?
If it’s a private venue within reason they can set their own admission rules, can’t they?
They can do whatever they like. We haven't been told though whether the pub in question has a covid pass policy. Would seem like a strange policy given pubs need as many customers as they can get right now.
You don’t have to be vaccinated to get a covid pass anyway. You can get one through having had a LFT within the past 48 hours can’t you?
You don’t have to be vaccinated to get a covid pass anyway. You can get one through having had a LFT within the past 48 hours can’t you?
You're negative LFT is an alternative to a Covid pass, not a way of getting one, as I understand it.
There’s a lot of debate over whether vaccines are effective in teenagers
What debate there is relates to the 12-16 age group not 18 year olds.
Wrt pub for Xmas live and let live I say but that 18 year old would have been dragged to the vaccination if he were mine and certainly wouldn't be seeing the olds.
but that 18 year old would have been dragged to the vaccination if he were mine and certainly wouldn’t be seeing the olds.
What difference does it make? AFAIK vaccination doesn't reduce transmission, so the only factor in whether someone socialises with the vulnerable is whether they have covid or are likely to have caught it recently. Not being vaccinated doesn't increase the risk to others, only to yourself.
dazh
Full Member
but that 18 year old would have been dragged to the vaccination if he were mine and certainly wouldn’t be seeing the olds.What difference does it make? AFAIK vaccination doesn’t reduce transmission, so the only factor in whether someone socialises with the vulnerable is whether they have covid or are likely to have caught it recently. Not being vaccinated doesn’t increase the risk to others, only to yourself.
There is a reduction in transmission, last I read it was somewhere around 50%.
They can do whatever they like. We haven’t been told though whether the pub in question has a covid pass policy.
Can they fit a Dr Evil style trapdoor so that the unvaccinated plummet into a pool of sharks with laser beams on their heads?
They should bd able to
What difference does it make? AFAIK vaccination doesn’t reduce transmission, so the only factor in whether someone socialises with the vulnerable is whether they have covid or are likely to have caught it recently. Not being vaccinated doesn’t increase the risk to others, only to yourself.
Its something that is very hard to PROVE, at least without some sort of closed condition, deliberate infection (medically unethical) trial.
But if your body can bat it off easily thanks to vacination, you should be less of a spreader.
So have you all basically given up on the vaccines having any effect then?
Absolutely not. Whilst the AZ/OX vaccine offers limited and temporal protection after two doses (four-fold increase in relative risk at three months), the response after an mRNA booster is excellent. And although omicron shows a 40-fold shift in neutralising sensitivity, boosting can get people back up to those levels. And the data shows that seropositivity is probably the best predictor of a good response to SARS-CoV2 infection. That all makes me optimistic.
Addition of restrictions on mixing will help slow the rate of increase, aid vaccine boosting and reduce but not remove hospital pressure. It also buys a bit of time to evaluate the morbidity of this new variant.
Add to this that there are two proven antivirals and a potential prophylaxis available to the NHS, this is very different to the shut the doors because we have NO response to Alpha of last Christmas. Again, I am optimistic about humeral immunity, and I think the data will show this to play out. But some prudence is a good thing until there is greater certainty on the morbidity of omicron.
You can - it’s called a Challenge Trial. I’m sure there are others, but here’s Imperial’s Covid one (we do others, including Malaria, which I know more about).
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/infectious-disease/research/human-challenge/
I’m not up to speed on any publications from the trial. I’d say we’ve generally gone a bit quiet on stuff recently (I.e Robin Shattock’s vaccine programme).
But if your body can bat it off easily thanks to vacination, you should be less of a spreader.
Maybe that's the case, but short of a law requiring a vaccine (which I don't think would be a bad idea BTW, although I'd prefer mandatory vaccination), what business is it of others to decide who should or shouldn't go to the pub? As I said, it's up to all of us to make our own decisions within the rules and we should be able to do that without others making judgements. If the rules change then fine, but until then carry on.
Hey dazh - don't hold back with your judgemental opinions of me. If you read my post, I was asking does he need a pass? I asked because I don't know the answer. Also Yes I think she should have lots of fun, should go out, should party etc. However I think she should be thinking more of her very elderly parents when going to a busy pub, on Christmas day, when 2 viruses are doing the rounds.
Anyway we could go round in circles here.
What are the timescales with boosting and anti-body production? I read somewhere it is faster than the original jabs?
Is it a case that as soon as the mRNA gets into the right cells, you start producing anti-bodies but it takes a week for them to be in sufficient numbers to be useful?
Wife was boosted on weekend but found out today came into contact with a covid positive person on day before boost. Wondering if the boost will help her fight anything off or if timescales too tight?
I’m not up to speed on any publications from the trial.
Active not recruiting, according to clinicaltrials.gov
Nothing published yet, and no data on their news feed. last update here.
hVIVO core business is RSV and influenza challenge. A milder variant of SARS-CoV2 (perhaps omicron?) would be very welcome from their business perspective. As will effective therapies to test as positive controls and rescue medication. Such challenge studies has to be the way forward when placebo controlled efficacy studies cannot be conducted.
TiRed
Full Member
So have you all basically given up on the vaccines having any effect then?Absolutely not. Whilst the AZ/OX vaccine offers limited and temporal protection after two doses (four-fold increase in relative risk at three months), the response after an mRNA booster is excellent. And although omicron shows a 40-fold shift in neutralising sensitivity, boosting can get people back up to those levels. And the data shows that seropositivity is probably the best predictor of a good response to SARS-CoV2 infection. That all makes me optimistic.
Addition of restrictions on mixing will help slow the rate of increase, aid vaccine boosting and reduce but not remove hospital pressure. It also buys a bit of time to evaluate the morbidity of this new variant.
Add to this that there are two proven antivirals and a potential prophylaxis available to the NHS, this is very different to the shut the doors because we have NO response to Alpha of last Christmas. Again, I am optimistic about humeral immunity, and I think the data will show this to play out. But some prudence is a good thing until there is greater certainty on the morbidity of omicron.
Interesting ta. To be clear, I'm not again prudence in the slightest and think we should act if things do start to look as grim some think.
btw, just a wee bit of anecdotal evidence, but if I'm anything to go by, 2 AZ's plus a pfizer booster a few days before I caught it, made for extremely mild sniffles and sneezing for three days, then covid was done for me(as a fat and unhealthy 44 yo. :lol:).
Fingers crossed anyhow, I'm tending towards the optimistic side myself, potentially coloured by personal experience I'll admit. But aye, we need to be ready to move if we need to, I don't think we should before we need to though.
Cheers TiRed. Might nudge a few people about the Vaccine - see if I can get any good gossip.
Reasonable precautions announced by Nicola Sturgeon. We need to see how the population respond to being given some responsibility for their actions over the next few weeks, with the carrot of potentially fewer restrictions in the medium term.
Having had COVID without antibodies in April 2020, and suffered since, I can't recommend the vaccine as a means of gaining seropositivity high enough. Having antibodies on-board ameliorates disease severity. The RECOVERY trial shows this for hospitalisations very convincingly. Vaccines are normally viewed as population-level, rather than individual level, benefit. But here I view vaccines as a form of prodrug for when you catch SARS-COV2.
Game's a bogey in Scotland. Sturgeon just cancelled crowds, max 500 outdoor, 100 indoor I think, introduced table service etc. Means new year cancelled and footbal winter break will probably be brought forward.
Reasonable precautions announced by Nicola Sturgeon. We need to see how the population respond to being given some responsibility for their actions over the next few weeks, with the carrot of potentially fewer restrictions in the medium term.
All sounds reasonable to me, but I'm sceptical to how well the guidance will be followed by many over Hogmanay. Its going to affect some of the services my work's involved in so its going to be a busy few days for those of us who've not stopped already for the festive period.
I got boosted this morning - just shy of 6 months after 2nd vaccine jab and 10 weeks since contracting COVID. Arm is now louping!
Wales have the lowest numbers across the board in the uk.
Lowest cases, lowest in hospitals (lowest its been in months) lowest deaths continuing to fall too, lowest everything in the history of the pandemic. Yet the bumbling harold bishop lookalike who is leading Wales has shut outdoor sports events and is looking to further cripple the hospitality industry even more than he's done previously.
What's going on now is a political game and nothing to do with 'data'. Only backed by a feeble rambling about how omicron could do this and might do that. Nothing to back that up of course.
S Africa now saying they're through the peak of Omicron and its been nowhere near as bad as delta was. So that throws the 'its a different country' out the window. Hospitalisations nothing like what Delta produced. But apparently 'there isn't enough data'.
So no evidence, no basis, no 'data' just blind panic. A cancel, draconian lock down mentality based on maybe's and to hell with those grotty peasant's who's livelihoods are at stake here.
Welsh Labour should be strung up, for starters, for allowing the hospitals under their watch to get in such a state.
Don't get me started on the way they are attempting to roll out booster jabs. Another sorry shambles to add to the ever growing list.
I tend to avoid youtube, but this guy gives a fairly balanced view of Omicron.
No doubt it'll get ripped tae bits on here though! 🙂
Welsh Labour should be strung up
And yet in the latest polling they are surging....
I tend to avoid youtube, but this guy gives a fairly balanced view of Omicron.
I haven't watched it, but if it's like some of his other stuff, then if he's right, it's only by luck.
What’s going on now is a political game and nothing to do with ‘data’. Only backed by a feeble rambling about how omicron could do this and might do that. Nothing to back that up of course
God forbid a government would be proactive, they should wait till things go badly wrong before taking action.
Yet the bumbling harold bishop lookalike who is leading Wales has shut outdoor sports events
Like a lot of people I was planning to go to some live sport this Xmas. Nothing big, St Helens on the 27th to watch Swansea v Llanelli, probably 1000 spectators, if that, in a ground which used to hold 6000+. It's cancelled. But the club bar is still allowed to open so we could crowd in and press ourselves up against the windows of the bar to watch the game but not go onto the terrace.
Or we could just go to any old crowded pub to watch sport, or we could travel up to England to go to a game.
It is completely nonsensical. (Unless, of course, they are planning on shutting pubs over the next few days)
