We won’t hesitate to take any action that Peter Bone, Bill Cash or Desmond Swayne will actually allow us to take. Which is pretty much nothing
Right… over to you lot then.
See you in the new year for the next lockdown when the hospitals are all full on unvaccinated nobheads
Have a nice Christmas
He really doesn’t want to bail out hospitality does he?
Spineless.
He really doesn’t want to bail out hospitality does he?
they are probably quite enjoying not having to fight the riff raff for a table.
My friend opened her pub in October, spoke to her on Saturday no where near the amount of customers she was expecting , The bar across the road was empty on Saturday, it should have been the busiest of the year.
She has load of beer that wont get used now before Chistmas and if we end up with inevitable lock down on the 27th it will end up down the drain. Rishi doesn’t want to pay so all Boris can he can say is it’s regrettable.
can someone remind me what the lag is between a positive pcr test and confirming what variant it is?
I had a positive PCR a week ago yesterday and didn't get told what variant it is/was, even though it was likely to be Omicron. I say that based upon where I got it (central London) and how long it took to pass onto my other half (2 days after my own positive result).
They don’t sequence all the pcr results, as far as I know.
Talking of the age of booster patients - I feel fairly qualified to comment having jabbed 100s & seen over 10,000 queuing at my mass vac site.
It really is all ages. Not many “really” old ones anymore, they are pretty much done.
One thing to remember is many had their first 2 arranged by GPS, and many ar3 no longer doing jabs. They were waiting to be called forward, but it never happened, so now they are out there fighting for bookings with the rest of us.
Some may remember I was part of the CovBoost trial, with my booster in Jun. My booster was a 100mg shot of Moderna as opposed to the 50mg they are using as a booster. Moderna has announced some results recently and the 100mg boost produced antibody levels twice that of the 50mg (80x pre-boost levels), so with the half life I should still be pretty well protected.
I’ve just taken my latest PCR to allow me to vaccinate again this week after flying (day job) overseas all weekend, so we will see……
'reserve the possibility' definitely sounds like double dither from the fridge hider in chief.
You don’t need to sequence to know its likely to be Omicron as it missing one of the markers in the test so on the balance of probabilities it Omicron (some of earlier varients are missing it too). That’s how they know what proportion of the cases are Omicron versus Delta
that was justified as she is older than God.
Living life on the edge. As if COVID wasn't dangerous enough @fazzini
How long until the work from home guidance and the school holidays will have an impact on new infection rates?
Judging by airports this weekend, and Manchester City centre on my layover - a long time 😣🙈
I walked out of the hotel to post my PCR test (work not symptoms) and dept stores/shopping centres rammed - mask wearing very patchy indoors too.
Moderna has announced some results recently and the 100mg boost produced antibody levels twice that of the 50mg (80x pre-boost levels), so with the half life I should still be pretty well protected.
Wayhay! Good news.
Slightly odd, but every time I’m in Manchester this year, lots of people are coughing - noticeably more than any other place I go.
Talking of the age of booster patients – I feel fairly qualified to comment having jabbed 100s & seen over 10,000 queuing at my mass vac site.
It really is all ages. Not many “really” old ones anymore, they are pretty much done.
One thing to remember is many had their first 2 arranged by GPS, and many ar3 no longer doing jabs. They were waiting to be called forward, but it never happened, so now they are out there fighting for bookings with the rest of us.
I suspect the older people are getting jabbed when they get a letter or a phone call/ text from their GP.
As opposed to my generation (40+) who are booking online as soon as physically possible once they open the floodgates to younger age ranges. I know I did.
Middle aged people also have an advantage in that we can travel ten miles+ without thinking about it, depending on where their local center is, older people who are less mobile are more reliant an a more local place to get it.
He's basically secured screwing up the start of 2022 then.
Asked what kind of measures the government will take he replies: “We’re looking at all kinds of things… we will rule nothing out.”
But he will just look at the options and wait for each one to be useless until there's only one left. Then he'll make a 'decisive' decision. As far as he's concerned it worked for him last time and it will work again.
But he will just look at the options and wait for each one to be useless until there’s only one left. Then he’ll make a ‘decisive’ decision. As far as he’s concerned it worked for him last time and it will work again.
This is exactly what will happen. Who are you, who are so wise in the illustrious decision making process of the highly regarded conservative party? 😉
Local Tesco was restricting numbers inside stores today, don’t worry, big business will protect us…
How long until the work from home guidance and the school holidays will have an impact on new infection rates?
Typically a week, perhaps less given how it is spreading. But the peak age range for omicron is older than school age.
I was expecting a little more than dither and watch the data, but am not surprised. Expect Scotland to show the way.
I'm not really on any side of the political fence, but the usual leaked build up (and the ensuing tension/anxiety of what's to come) to result in an eventual announcement of 'yeah, not sure' is not what I expected.
Don't envy anyone's position in trying to get this call right, god knows what I'd do in charge, but this feels like a right dithering mess.
I’m making this post context free… you decide which posts it’s relevant for…
https://twitter.com/brittlestar/status/1472669869573394432?s=20
Don’t envy anyone’s position in trying to get this call right, god knows what I’d do in charge, but this feels like a right dithering mess.
The case for further restrictions is hardly compelling, so waiting to see a clearer picture emerge (or dithering) is a perfectly sound strategy but clearly has significant risks. But imposing restrictions when they are not needed has risks too.
I also think that emergency flood defences aren’t required… just because so called “meteorologists” and people who use fancy words such as “potamology” (which I don’t think is even a real word) say they are. I mean, we haven’t had a flood around here for, well, nearly a year. That’s ancient history. And our PM seems to know a lot about that, so I trust him. Government inaction is the way to go for now. Well, until homes, pubs and schools have been under water… then it’s time for the PM to put on some special wellies and go around consoling people as they offer cups of tea and a bit of clapping for those helping to shovel away the sewage tainted mud. He can get his woolly hat out again, and wear it in that way that makes people have a little laugh and maybe momentarily forget about those they knew who have just died or the businesses they have lost.
I also think that emergency flood defences aren’t required
Good for you, but seems to be an odd view.
Well, let’s at least “wait and see” to get a clearer picture. No floods tomorrow will mean that no emergency flood defences today was the right move. And if it doesn’t turn out that way, and the scientific advisors were right… well… alas… what could have been done differently in such “unprecedented“ circumstances?
So it seems to be government policy to wait until there is clear data showing we are really in the crap before we actually do anything to avert getting into said position.
Great.
Yeah, the flood defence analogy is actually the perfect.
What a mess, sphincter clenching time yet again.
I have a feeling the start to 2022 is going to be a lot more difficult than it needed to be.
We've been here before haven't we?
kelvin
Full MemberNo floods tomorrow will mean that no emergency flood defences today was the right move.
Nah. No floods tomorrow means we got away with it, it's still totally possible that no defences today was a stupid move.
The no defences thing seems a bit dramatic is it not? It's not march 2020.
We've got loads of vaccine protection(majority of over 60s, are triple vacc'd, in scotland atleast, I'd imagine it'll be similar elsewhere and numbers are increasing dramatically.), a lot people are voluntarily picking and choosing and limiting contact, schools are finishing up for a couple of weeks, so there are some defences there, imo. There isn't nothing happening.
It'll be interesting to see when the South Africa hospitalisations get up dated(they are still sitting at the weekends info just now) and what London and Scotland look like in the coming week.
If anything should happen, I'd suggest a general call for the vulnerable to shield till we see what happens would be a better approach at this very second.
Also, flooding is not actually contagious - and it is unquestionably more of a problem in some areas more than others.
Which one would contend makes it an imperfect analogy in these most trying of times.
I see that ernie's combative, point-scoring, i-know-you-are-but-what-am-i, super-mad-debatin' skillz have added exactly nothing of value to this thread.
Please, this is actually an emergency frequency...
In the past we saw a week's delay in implementing a lockdown meant it had to go on for three weeks longer.
Is that still true in light of Omicron's infection rate and doubling time?
No flood defences..really get a grip. What has the last 2 years/previous lockdowns been about building then?
Waiting to see if our defences that we have invested heavily in will work is not dithering.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59658486
yourguitarhero
Free Member
In the past we saw a week’s delay in implementing a lockdown meant it had to go on for three weeks longer.Is that still true in light of Omicron’s infection rate and doubling time?
tbh so far in scotland at least, doesn't really look like a steeper up curve than previous ones. I've also over laid currently in hospital, you'd think that would have started to turn by now also?
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The daft thing for me is that London has shut down already but hospitality is getting no support!
I passed pubs on the way home last night that had actually closed for Xmas a week early.
We like probably 10000s of others cancelled our Xmas lunch last week, must be devastating for restaurant staff just before Xmas.
Almost everyone in my work has left for Xmas early or are isolating, I could see London cases stabilising because everyone has left already but after a short while they'll shoot up everywhere else as people bring omicron home to their families.
tbh so far in scotland at least, doesn’t really look like a steeper up curve than previous ones. I’ve also over laid currently in hospital, you’d think that would have started to turn by now also?
Interesting piece on Radio Scotland this morning with Angelique Coetzer updating on the situation in SA, she reckoned they're over the peak and that hospital numbers never reached the ratios seen during earlier variants.
Lots of different variables between Europe and SA, winter/summer etc, but fingers crossed (She's the chair of the SA medical association so I'm assuming she's no a heid banger)
Wife told this morning that NHS staff (in our trust anyway) have to LFT daily now, from the twice a week they were doing.
So it seems to be government policy to wait until there is clear data showing we are really in the crap before we actually do anything to avert getting into said position.
This was the point I was trying to make with my stupid analogy. This is not a “wait and see” situation due to the lag between infection and hospitalisation data, and because the infection pattern is that the younger less at risk get the virus first and then it moves onto the older and at risk later. We know all this from past waves. And, of course we are in a far better position this winter thanks to the vaccines, I don’t doubt that at all, and have made the point myself repeatedly. But there is no “vaccine only” response at this point of the pandemic yet. The government can pretend there is, but hospital staff (already over stretched) and anyone working in non-essential services (not just hospitality) could all pay the price for that heavily (not to mention those who get ill).
Politically, our PM can not announce restrictions before Xmas. That’s the bottom line. Which is fine, we can all choose to act anyway… but there is still an economic and social cost to that, especially with not government assistance for those businesses and workers hit. Government inaction does not mean no economic and social impact.
The lack of clear direction and especially support for hospitality is truly shocking, and could be the straw that breaks that industry camels back.
Hospitalisation numbers seem to have been steady for around a month now, despite the rise of Delta before Omicron was identified. That seems encouraging at least, but given that Omicron has seen infections double/treble in the last couple of weeks, any impact on hospital numbers will still be 2-3 weeks away.
Luckily for the wider situation (but not for the hospitality sector!) it does seem that yet again many people and businesses have taken their own action while the government dithers, even if its to selfishly protect their own Christmas plans.
Big concern about huge numbers of working population being off isolating.
Javid's solution: Can we reduce the isolation period from 10 days to 7?
I thought it was now well established that we are infectious from two days before symptoms until ten days after. Or is there scientific data suggesting Omicron infections last less time?
Aye was looking at SA hospitalisation data, as you say, lots that makes it not a straight comparison, but it is still looking ok as of yesterday. Hopefully a good signal,
To clarify, it's only the province where Omicron was first identified that looks to have peaked and reducing, although all the rest now *seem* to be following a similar trajectory.
NHS working friend says there are more cases of flu then covid in the hospital where she works. However in her 'team', half are off sick or isolating.
I was shocked when she said the family were going to a pub for Christmas dinner, this includes her 83 yr old father and her 18 yr old son (who I'm pretty sure isn't vaccinated, as he and his friends think "its not cool").
Surely the 18 year old can't be with them, or have I got that wrong?
I reckon we'll get a pretty strong signal within the next five days from the severity of our own hospitalisations, which will then guide restrictions from the 27th. It's now too late to do anything prior to Christmas, so that intergenerational mixing is baked in for the first couple of weeks of January.
Also, why is the BBC still giving airtime to Heneghan? Wasn't he one of the Great Barrington types floating around in November 2020 with Gupta saying Covid was basically over and there was no sign of a second wave? I had to turn the TV off sharpish this morning because they decided to give Peter Bone a platform, presumably for 'balance'.
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1472883488307257344
NHS working friend says there are more cases of flu then covid in the hospital where she works. However in her ‘team’, half are off sick or isolating.
I was shocked when she said the family were going to a pub for Christmas dinner, this includes her 83 yr old father and her 18 yr old son (who I’m pretty sure isn’t vaccinated, as he and his friends think “its not cool”).
Surely the 18 year old can’t be with them, or have I got that wrong?
No disrespect but this friend doesn't seem a good source of info 🙂
I was shocked when she said the family were going to a pub for Christmas dinner
Why shocked? Many of the people I know working in covid wards just want to come home from a day's work, forget about it and carry on living life. Same goes for most other people not working in the NHS. To be honest your friend is far more exposed at work so why would she be too worried about going to the pub?
This was the point I was trying to make with my stupid analogy.
Flooding a very good analogy. Where as it used to be all about hard engineering now it's about slowing the flow. Taking action upstream to stop all the water arriving at the same time. Hands, face, space, minimising contact and exposure is the equivalent of restoring peat bogs - scrubs speed off the rise. Relatively cheap, a combination of measures build into an over all effective package (vaccines, minimising contact and upping social hygiene). Hard engineering is costly and has it's own problems which means use has to be very targeted (lockdowns). Then there's dredging - the populists solution. It appears cheap, simple and easy to grasp but doesn't really dent the issue, only actually of use in a small handful very specific situations and is full of unintended consequences (fairly much any Tory Research Group solution).
The question we are all waiting on is was there enough slow the flow upstream of Christmas to prevent the need for major hard engineering. I would have preferred more slow the flow so the engineering didn't have to be as big.
