It feels all doom and gloom right now, but on the positive front initial reports say a booster is 85% effective against the new variant. I will take that.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59696499
I've had a busy week back in the vaccination centres, and planning 2 more days of jabbing next week before xmas. I need to take a PCR test swiftly when I land from 3 days flying this weekend, so I am allowed to work in the NHS again.
Our centre was rammed, with 1hr queues around the block, doing 2500 jabs a day. We are tight on staff and supplies (the little things, not vaccine supply).
Personally I'm a little worried that its 6 months now since my booster in the COV-BOOST trial and my immunity may be waning at the worst possible time.
Thanks. [ Still no news from the trial? ]
GO! GO! GO!
Everyone get your booster.
And 3 negative PCR results just returned! It seems it is possible to have a stinking cold in London still
dantsw13
Free Member
I’ve had a busy week back in the vaccination centres, and planning 2 more days of jabbing next week before xmas. I need to take a PCR test swiftly when I land from 3 days flying this weekend, so I am allowed to work in the NHS again.
You amongst some others on here deserve a pint or beverage of your choice if I ever meet you on the trails my friend. I'm usually found at the bottom of a tame hill on the South Downs on my arse with a bike in a bush. Look me up.😁
Seriously, thank **** there are people like you on this old spinning rock.👍
neilnevill
Free Member
And 3 negative PCR results just returned! It seems it is possible to have a stinking cold in London still
Good news my friend.
The null hypothesis is that severity is unchanged. The data has not moved the null (yet). Personally I think omicron will turn out to be the same severity as delta. London is leading the rest of the country. Hospitalisations have doubled since the end of November. Other regions are following, so look to London first and compare with previous waves. Notably alpha in unvaccinated and delta in partially vaccinated. That’s my plan for the weekend. A dip in rate of acceleration would be a first positive sign.
That and to find a Christmas tree.
Well isn't that just fantastic news.
Good luck with the tree search. We just put ours up, I would happily go without this year.
Personally I think omicron will turn out to be the same severity as delta.
I really hope you are wrong😬
I really hope you are wrong
Well he pretty much hasn't been so far, so yea, not looking good at all.
I really hope you are wrong😬
So do I. But people think on linear scales but pharmacology and epidemiology work on logarithmic scales. So shifts of, say 30% in severity is really noise. A shift of 3x would interesting. SARS-CoV2 is a step change from the first SARS (10% mortality). Everything else is likely to be modest, but ameliorated by antibodies from vaccination and past infections. Today's UKHSA update on VOCs shows that secondary attack rate is doubled. But that isn't at all surprising if vaccine efficacy is halved for omicron (since most people have been vaccinated). And VE is halved based on provisional data, at least until boosting. But there is little data on severity other than hospitalisations in London having doubled since November 21st.
We have an emergency artificial tree that might need to come out...And it was very expensive 15 years ago, bought in the Boxing Day sale (don't judge me).
bought in the Boxing Day sale (don’t judge me).
Monster.
I bet you bought an unnecessarily big tv at the same time too?
And it was very expensive 15 years ago, bought in the Boxing Day sale (don’t judge me).
Tbf we bought an emergency fake tree from b&q years ago and it's actually been great, we've ditched real trees now
Good thread with some data here
https://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1471941645797146628?t=KuQ1Ri7aszZ6mcy9LNV-7A&s=19
Anecdotally from the number of people in work & my kids schools who have it (including us 2 weeks ago) & from colleagues that work in London hospitals, even if it is milder, it seems to be spreading much quicker than previous waves, so we're still stuffed!
Those were the days of the (small) Pioneer 42” Kuro. May it RIP (house struck by lightening). Watching Danny Finkelstein at 108” on the projector on Newsnight.
Back on subject, my antibody was approved by the EMA today. The culmination of a mad year from a work perspective. The MHRA have already approved it. Rather pleasingly, early data shows it retains activity against omicron - something that is not true for the other clinical antibodies 🙁 AZ have reported a 100-fold shift for Evusheld. Whether that is still ok remains to be seen, but it’s not a given. Regeneron are already developing new antibodies against omicron.
And my US manager has covid. And his wife. She was boosted and is fine. He was not and is not. Probably omicron.
16 people in my oh's NHS lab have gone for a meal tonight...
She is fuming. The virus is hitting the lab directly now in a way that simply didn't happen in the other waves. It's getting closer all the time.
We are both a little scared. She house shares with a vulnerable person and if I get it my old mum is likely to.
Absolute idiocy.
Back on subject, my antibody was approved by the EMA today. The culmination of a mad year from a work perspective. The MHRA have already approved it. Rather pleasingly, early data shows it retains activity against omicron –
Huge congratulations TiRed, another hard fought for weapon against the virus that will save lives.
Yeah, just read that. Not unexpected if course but I wonder if it's politically obtainable for Boris now even if hugely necessary?
That's the bit I find scary.
perhaps alternative is to make Chris Witty even more scary.... some cgi to make his eyes glow red while he sas "you're all going to die" in a really deep vincent price-esque voice.
^^I think some Tory back benchers already see him that way.lol
I'll end my posts in the thread on a happier note tonight though.👍
Booster at least 80% effective against severe Omicron
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59696499
Question on having Covid and the 10 day isolation.
Are you guaranteed to be infection free after the 10 days(from symptoms, 8 days from test)?
Any point in doing an LFT on say day 11 to make sure you get a negative?
In other words, is a positive LFT after 10 days mean you are still being infectious?
I'm due out of jail on Christmas eve, but not particularly wanting to be giving my family Covid for Christmas! 😆
Kelvin - the trial’s position is that as of now 4th shots are not approved unless immunosuppressed. Seeing as my booster doesn’t even show on my records yet, I “could” just book myself one………
Poopscoop - I’m just off the eastern end of the South Downs & never known to turn down beer 😎
Seeing as my booster doesn’t even show on my records yet, I “could” just book myself one………
Not the worst idea ever, TBH.
Any point in doing an LFT on say day 11 to make sure you get a negative?
Advice is you don't take an LFT for 90 days to avoid false positives. If you are symptom free at the end of isolation you are good to go.
If you want to take an extra few days to be certain, that won't hurt, of course.
10 days from symptom onset you should be fine
If you've still got symptoms that would imply higher load so may be more infectious
MoreCashThanDash
Full Member
Any point in doing an LFT on say day 11 to make sure you get a negative?Advice is you don’t take an LFT for 90 days to avoid false positives. If you are symptom free at the end of isolation you are good to go.
From what i was reading, it's just that you are exempt from routine testing for 90 days. Can't really see anywhere that says whether LFTs being positive or not after the 10 days can be used as a tool.
Just wondering, cause I was symptomatic on tuesday/wednesday/thursday, and didn't test positive on the LFTs till thursday(which makes me highly doubt the usefulness of these LFTs for stopping spread tbh, but that's another question, suggests I was potentially contagious for 5 days before LFTs showed a positive according to that diagram above). Incidentally, symptoms are gone and were extremely mild, I've pretty much skooshed this! (But I am still testing positive on LFTs)
Just wondering if what LFTs are actually doing is telling you when you are likely infectious to others or not(no-one I was with at the weekend/monday is showing any symptoms and are negative on all tests so far), but I'm purely speculating there, seems to be little on the way of this train of though anywhere.
I know I'm likely to test positive on PCRs for quite a while yet, but is that also true for LFTs?
I know I’m likely to test positive on PCRs for quite a while yet, but is that also true for LFTs?
Some anecdote for you, I tested mildly positive (feint line) on LFT up to 12-13 days from a +ve pcr, but had been 10 days without fever.
Have had a few negative tests since.
PCR is more sensitive as it picks up fragments of virus which can hang around for 90 days
Some big vaccination hugs reporting many people coming forward to have their first jab. Good news.
jimdubleyou
Full Member
I know I’m likely to test positive on PCRs for quite a while yet, but is that also true for LFTs?Some anecdote for you, I tested mildly positive (feint line) on LFT up to 12-13 days from a +ve pcr, but had been 10 days without fever.
Have had a few negative tests since.
PCR is more sensitive as it picks up fragments of virus which can hang around for 90 days
interesting, cheers.
The Times are reporting a 2 week ‘circuit breaker’ is planned for after Christmas
https://twitter.com/afootballnomad/status/1472125235860230145?s=21
We’ve all been assuming that’s the plan for a while now, haven’t we? It just needs Sunak to work out how to support the businesses most effected, without losing support from the MPs he needs to end up in the last two in the leadership contest to come.
Realistically what does a 2 week "circuit breaker" actually do? We all know cases don't drop as quickly as they rise.
Realistically what does a 2 week “circuit breaker” actually do? We all know cases don’t drop as quickly as they rise.
in this case it's shutting the stable door leaving the door ajar after the horse has bolted so probably not a lot.
Still slows the rise if it’s deemed that is necessary (spoiler, it will be). Doesn’t avoid a big problem in the hospitals, if that’s going to happen, no. Could avoid that big problem being even bigger (or at least stretch it out so that more people can get hospital care, rather than left to suffer and perhaps die at home).
It also buys some time for Boosters to take effect (or be administered, depending on timing) so that fewer people will need hospital care at all.
If it continues on its current path I fid it hard to believe that they won't close non-essential shops and schools for the two weeks The Times are reporting above.
Realistically, I think they have until around the 27th to make that decision. Anecdotally, I can't remember a time where I've heard so many people I know testing positive, it does feel we're on a tipping point.
I'm just wondering if this two-week lockdown is just for us peasants or whether it will also include the MP's and rich?
I think it is important to reiterate that NO ONE should be taking LFTs for any kind of symptomatic infection. That is not what they are for, and they are the wrong tool for the job.
If you have symptoms you should get a PCR test.
If you are symptom free and you want to regularly check that you are not asymptomatic but infectious, you should use LFTs regularly. My recommendation would be at least every other day to stand any chance of picking asymptomatic infection up. If you get 2 lines, get a PCR.
I “could” just book myself one………
That's exactly what I'd be doing.
Remember when everyone was bored of Brexit so *we* voted in Boris to “Just get Brexit done™️“? I’d say we’re not far off that with Covid now, there’s a huge proportion of the public that just don’t really care anymore and will be completely unwilling to suffer anymore restrictions and that’s not even taking into account the last shred of willingness to abide by lockdown those in charge will have stripped away with their Xmas parties during the last lockdown.
At the very best we can hope for a lockdown that’s too late, at this rate we’ll end up with someone in charge that really doesn’t give a shit.
It also buys some time for Boosters to take effect
In reality, it buys time to deal with the known and expected peak in infections during the Christmas break feeding into healthcare. Don’t forget that peak death is week two of the calendar annually - that’s irrespective of covid. This is due to the annual Christmas intergeneration mixing and transmission of respiratory diseases. Add on an incubation time for flu, RSV and bacterial pneumonia taking effect and that’s the peak. Add in a more transmissible pathogen with lower immunity and things get worse.
I have secured a 6’6” real tree which I shall now erect and decorate. Before looking at the London data.
Pics of tree please. I'll bet there's no random decoration going on there.
I’ll bet there’s no random decoration going on there.
I reckon the complete opposite. TiRed's academically meticulous but I reckon decorating the Christmas tree is his chance of expressing his creativity 🙂
I think what we all want to know is -
White tree lights or multi-coloured?
Anecdotally, I can’t remember a time where I’ve heard so many people I know testing positive, it does feel we’re on a tipping point.
Almost everyone I know tested positive for delta in October. I'm one of the few who haven't officially, although I'm pretty sure I had a non-test confirmed case back in September if the state of my lungs is anything to go by. It'll be interesting to see how many get reinfected with omicron (I don't know of anyone yet).
Have to say though that anecdotally, most people I know are completely unconcerned about omicron. I was at xmas party last night (spare me the moralising BTW) and thought it would be sparsely attended, but no, everyone was there, including a fair few GPs, teachers, health workers etc.
