In that case, we should rename it the “NCS” (National Covid Service), and urgently seek out another healthcare provider for everything else.
How long will that take?
You seem to be suggesting that if NHS locations and services pretend that Covid isn't a thing, then they can get on and treat more people. It's a totally bogus idea... it doesn't stand up to any scrutiny whatsoever.
if that was all it took to ease the load on the NHS
It isn't. Who claimed that it was?
BBC News - Covid in Scotland: 'Test much more' plea after Omicron cases found
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59457332
It's a good thing we've got you twrch. You can point out to these health care professionals where they've been going wrong!
I'll say it again - masks apparently have not made a difference for the Welsh NHS, as we have been wearing them continuously since last September. Unless, that is, you want to make the argument that there is some other confounding factor that makes the quality of health service here in Wales very significantly worse than England, and it was the public mask wearing that kept it from getting as bad as it could have been (and it is currently terrible).
As for my somewhat flippant comment about a separate healthcare system - it set a few of you off. However, it's not a totally ridiculous idea. We've had 2 years to work this out, we've also justified historical levels of voluntary economic, social, and health sacrifices to "protect the NHS". Making a separate health care system just to treat those vulnerable to Covid is certainly within that ballpark.
As a side note - my very aged and frail grandfather had a knee replacement in September 2020. It was done privately (obviously, because he'd be dead before the NHS got around to killing him with a hospital-bourne Covid case) with no fuss, and he's as (un-) healthy as ever.
You can point out to these health care professionals where they’ve been going wrong!
I have health care professionals on my side. A very close relative (who works for the ambulance service) and I frequently swap dark jokes about just how awful this path we are on has become. They are also a deeply caring person who is incredibly troubled at the speed with which decades and maybe even centuries of hard-earned medical ethics and practices have been thrown aside, because this is a "special emergency". For one, the ever-increasing use of scary hospital and medical scenes being used to "educate" (or maybe even nudge) the public into the dangers of disease, goes so far against all they were taught about the need to humanise healthcare that it almost brought them to tears telling me about it. I'm sure @tjagain would not disagree.
I'm willing to bet he won't!
We've absolutely been spared the worst of what the NHS has dealt with
At the start we were shown the grim situation in Italian hospitals, in a way we haven't seen here
, unless I missed the special where they showed us what the 175,000 excess deaths from covid looked like
Making a separate health care system just to treat those vulnerable to Covid is certainly within that ballpark.
You do realise that most health care provision (and social care for that matter) is for, and used by, those "vulnerable to Covid", yes?
Where do all the health care workers come from for your new second health care system? I mean, I assume you intend for it to increase total capacity, not just split it, yes? As a lay person, your idea of what can actually be achieved within two years seems more than a little bit optimistic.
and urgently seek out another healthcare provider for everything else.
Hang on, I'll get my old copy of the Yellow Pages...aah, there we are, AAAAAA Critical Care Services, 24hr callout...
I know Boris promised 40 new hospitals just like that before the election, but you know he wasn't actually telling the truth, didn't you?
an extra burden on the NHS.
LOL that is nothing to the burden they would have to bear if they ignored the risks of catching covid.
. For one, the ever-increasing use of scary hospital and medical scenes being used to “educate” (or maybe even nudge) the public into the dangers of disease, goes so far against all they were taught about the need to humanise healthcare that it almost brought them to tears telling me about it.
Don’t let them see the scary pictures on a packet of fags or they’ll have kittens.
For all those jumping on my somewhat flippant suggestion - it's already happening, and is called private health care. If you want care, even as someone "vulnerable to Covid", you can go private if you are lucky enough (as in the story of my aged grandad, who survived a knee op in a private hospital in September 2020 despite always looking like he's on death's door), or you can accept your fate (as in the case of my dear neighbour, who is in his 80's, fit and healthy (he refused my offer to help shovel snow off his drive), and recently told me he's resigned to never getting the op he needs to keep himself mobile. But hey, he's safe from Covid!).
It turns out it's perfectly possible to provide all sorts of healthcare, when your first order of business is not finding a "virus proof" plastic cape and telling people they can only be diagnosed over Zoom or a photo in an app.
Don’t let them see the scary pictures on a packet of fags or they’ll have kittens.
Careless comparison. The contents of a packet of fags will almost certainly end up giving you lung cancer. The contents of a hospital is supposed to heal you.
At the start we were shown the grim situation in Italian hospitals
I've been shown scary pictures of hospitals, from all over the world, since March 2020 (including very recently, of my very own local hospital). As there is no data or concrete information to go along with them, I obviously dismiss them as media click-baiting. I'd be very interested to hear from anyone with any experience of Italian healthcare during the pandemic.
LOL that is nothing to the burden they would have to bear if they ignored the risks of catching covid.
As I already said in my comment that you quoted, every parent I know has done at least one of the things I listed that should be considered "an un-necessary burden", and all of which are new in our Covid world. None of them, not even those who mix and go out as much as possible, have burdened the NHS with extra Covid issues.
You haven't actually proposed a solution though?
I imagine you can probably knock up the required 40,000 people to fill vacancies in NHS posts in a few weeks. If you can do that you can probably sort out the shortage of care workers for nursing homes and other social carers too. Perhaps while you're at it you can address the chronic shortage of teaching and support staff too?
10 years of austerity and Brexit contributed massively to the edge of the abyss state of the nation's healthcare. Covid is the cherry on top. What's the solution if what we're doing now isn't it?
How many private hospitals offer an A&E service, or critical care? The NHS offers far more than any private healthcare provider, and I'm pretty sure that those private providers will require you to have a clear covid test before you turn up to be treated (by appointment) so they are intrinsically doing the segregation that you say they are not.
Still not clear what you're driving at though - is it that if we ignore Covid it will stop being such a problem, because all the sick people will just be regular sick people rather than covid sick people? That'll work.
There is a slight difference between private hospitals doing certain types of elective work in a controlled fashion and operating a parallel entire secondary care system in tandem with the NHS. The idea that our country's health system could undergo this kind of root and branch reform DURING a massive global pandemic which has stretched it breaking point is beyond laughable.
I'm sure over the next decade, we will plan (and then probably underfund) efforts to operate a more efficient split system if something similar happens again, but what you are proposing would require a)massive investment in infrastructure and equipment at a time the public finances are being pummelled
b) a massive recruitment and training programme at a time when we can't even fill posts in the existing model.
Apparently Van-Tam has said it's not the time to panic..."at this stage"
so that's OK then.
boosters for all then. interesting to see how that works, booked mine as soon as they opened for 40+ and got one for the 22nd dec
Apparently Van-Tam has said it’s not the time to panic…”at this stage”
I shall await his order to panic in due course.
To be fair, I find his attitude and explanations to be very frank and pragmatic, so if he says it's not the time to panic, I'm happy to agree. Panicking and taking further measures are too different things.
Of course, when he says it is time to panic, I will absolutely shit myself inside out!
43 here booster booked today for Wednesday 0.6 of a mile from my house sounds like I got lucky !
Apparently Van-Tam has said it’s not the time to panic…”at this stage”
LOL He didn't put it quite that dramatically!
.
“I want to be clear this is not all doom and gloom at this stage and I do not want people to panic at this stage,”
The man is not a politician so he probably isn't too aware of how every word matters.
He was trying to reassure the public after announcing that the booster would be extended to all those 18 and over.
Just as well didn't also claim that there is no reason to panic buy toilet paper..... that would have presumably caused chaos!
Edit another poster for the cba’ed pile
Evening Standard: Omicron variant could be a ‘Christmas gift’, says German health expert.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/covid-omicron-variant-christmas-gift-south-africa-expert-b968960.html
Frankly the big issue is how too many people are pronouncing Omicron as if it is a kid's toy or a character in a child's movie. Omicron is literally the small (micros) O as opposed to Omega which is the large (megas) O, how do these people pronounce microscope?
Frankly the big issue is how too many people are pronouncing Omicron
Just be glad we haven't had to deal with mu, nu, xi, chi and phi 😉
I’ll say it again – masks apparently have not made a difference for the Welsh NHS, as we have been wearing them continuously since last September. Unless, that is, you want to make the argument that there is some other confounding factor that makes the quality of health service here in Wales very significantly worse than England, and it was the public mask wearing that kept it from getting as bad as it could have been (and it is currently terrible).
I've tried to resist but I just have to rip this all apart.
Wales has historically had and continues to have a very large proportion of it's population that are ill, vulnerable and disabled. A legacy from the pits in the Valleys, industry in the North and swathes of the rest being poor and lacking in healthcare provision. This left Wales extremely vulnerable to Covid running rampant, even compared to England if we had comparable restrictions. The fact that we're only doing slightly worse than England is to do with the fact we have continued to mandate masks, opened up later and locked down earlier. If we had followed the English rules Wales would be a plague nation by now. Add in that mask use wasn't universally followed and that we share a big border with England that wasn't closed all summer and you have the situation we are in now.
So when you say that "masks apparently have not made a difference for the Welsh NHS" you're ignoring so many other factors that come into play that it means you are talking complete and utter bollocks.
how do these people pronounce microscope?
Hopefully like this:
/ˈmʌɪkrəskəʊp/
Which is confusing as an example for
/əʊˈmaɪkrɒn/
as the first "o" in microscope isn't the same but the sencond is.
I will say one thing for you, you really excel at missing the point.
In addition to what @reluctantjumper said, it's worth also mentioning that in Wales whilst we're still required to wear masks, it only really applies to shops, when compliance has been 50% or lower sometimes when I've been shopping.
I was out in Cardiff Friday night, for the first time in a very long time, way before Covid, I had a great time, I'm still slightly hungover, but masks aren't required in Hospitality settings, everywhere was packed, 4 deep at the bar. I watched Wales v Fiji in Cardiff a few weeks before 60k+ people all sat shoulder to shoulder, stacked in neat rows, singing and shouting, masks weren't required, you had to have a Covid pass in both, but I doubt they're as effective as they hope, if you're a covid denier, they're pretty easy to fake/cheat. Most work places I visit are mask free, social distancing isn't really a thing, we've become incredibly lax.
Saying "Wales still use masks and look at them" doesn't really tell the whole story, they're really only there now to protect shop workers, but even they don't really wear them.
Omicron variant could be a ‘Christmas gift’, says German health expert.
I've had a variety of Christmas gifts, some of them less welcome than others. He needs to be more specific.
Set of hand-knitted dishcloths or Lego Star Wars Millennium Falcon?
It's the thought that counts!
“I want to be clear this is not all doom and gloom at this stage and I do not want people to panic at this stage,”
Not a politician, and I agree. Some science if interested. There is a mutation in Spike at position 681 that is called the furin cleavage site. Alpha has a mutation in that which increases it's cleavage into the cell from ACE2 over wilt type virus. Delta has a different mutation called P681R that increases it's cleavage over Alpha and makes it a lot more transmissible. The Omicron has many mutations, but I think it notable that it carries the Alpha mutation not the Delta. So it is possible that it is less transmissible than Delta, and in a country with a lot of Delta spread, it may (possibly) struggle to gain a footing. In South Africa, the Delta wave had passed and cases were very low when Omicron emerged. That's not the case in the UK.
Here is the preprint, if anyone wants to read https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8404900/ . They also smartly mutated Delta back to wild type at P681 and watched the fitness go away, proving that it is this mutation that increases competition.
[tl:dr] In terms of spread, looking at the mutations Delta > Alpha and Omicron looks a bit more like Alpha than it does Delta. Lots of Delta might mean Omicron has a harder time getting a hold.
Omicron looks a bit more like Alpha than it does Delta. Lots of Delta might mean Omicron has a harder time getting a hold.
That's a shame if it's less transmissible and with possibly less severe symptoms.
Cheers Tired - your updates are worth their weight in gold (Or is it BTC these days!?) & far more lucid than any junk from the politicians!
As mentioned earlier, I'm not a headline writer. As for sensitivity to treatments... A lot of scientists are busy looking at this now. I'd hazard that there will be lower sensitivity but not complete loss of protection, with retention of protection against hospitalisation. Some of the mutations might be bad news for some of the antibodies, but this is not known for sure.
Curiously, nobody has mentioned that the rapid growth of Delta from very low levels in Israel (which slowed after two weeks) was at the same rate as Omicron in SA. One would not be surprised if the rate of growth tails off. We shall see...
I suppose that makes how delta & omicron compare on immune evasion important
To the guy on here who thinks masks don’t work.
I’m responsible for an organisation that provides adult care. The last two years have been incredibly stressful. Not least because public health protection measure continue to limit what individuals in care settings can do.
We have been lucky. But have still had to manage cases of Covid. We know masks work. They have been part of our layered Swiss cheese approach. You can choose to believe what you like. But thinking masks don’t work and choosing not to wear one impacts far more people then just you.
For god sake people regardless of what you believe wear a mask.
I will say one thing for you, you really excel at missing the point.
Not really. My opening gambit was to suggest that maybe, we would have a better outcome if every form of care was not 100% focussed on avoiding the theoretical risks of Covid. Apparently, despite this approach having severe and counter-productive downsides (ie, healthcare effectively disappears for the rest of us, and it making life completely shite for healthcare workers), that will just not do. We took a lively diversion when I half jokingly suggested we needed another healthcare system, to care care of our actual healthcare needs. Despite the rest of the world using this model (and us here moving that direction anyway, as people really do need healthcare, and will do what they can to get it), apparently that won't work either.
It seems that all we can do is wear masks when out in public, despite several commenters agreeing that they don't really do very much, and just grind on as we are. I recently read that 40% (I think that was the number, can't remember exactly) of Covid infections were caught in hospitals. If it's so essential to not catch Covid, it seems to me that the NHS has a lot of work to do in cleanliness and infection control. In fact, if it really is so essential that we don't catch Covid, maybe we should close the hospitals? That would significantly cut down the amount of cases and transmission.
I’ve tried to resist but I just have to rip this all apart.
I'm so glad someone took the bait. So Wales has to mask up, because we're fat and unfit? Seems fair. Maybe we'll also take Austria's lead in segregating more risky groups, and place them under house arrest too.
...had a great time, I’m still slightly hungover, but masks aren’t required in Hospitality settings, everywhere was packed, 4 deep at the bar. I watched Wales v Fiji in Cardiff a few weeks before 60k+ people all sat shoulder to shoulder, stacked in neat rows, singing and shouting
Sounds suspiciously like you were having fun and being very Covid-risky!
We know masks work
How?
Not least because public health protection measure continue to limit what individuals in care settings can do.
I'm genuinely sorry for how awful your life must have been for the past two years (I'm sure you all will have a hard time believing that, but it's true). Hopefully the measures were of some use.
If I am wrong about the efficacy of masks, then the worst thing is that I look ridiculous and occasionally feel slightly uncomfortable. If mask-sceptics are wrong, people die unnecessarily.
the theoretical risks
ah those 150,000 make believe deaths.
I suppose that makes how delta & omicron compare on immune evasion important
Completely agree, but in that plot of Delta emergence, Israel was the most vaccinated population on Earth, so we've already seen what escape can look like. Omicron is identified in pockets in SA with lots of local spread. It is also perhaps notable that it is summer in SA too, so transmission may be different to UK and elsewhere. UKHSA put out an updated technical briefing document on Friday. A list of mutations is on Page 18. What's the betting it will turn out to be a non-structural protein (NS) or something other than the "look at me!" spike protein, that turns out to be significant?
I will say one thing for you, you really excel at missing the point.
Not aimed at you, although the fact you think it was may mean you do too - or does it? Very confusing.
avoiding the theoretical risks of Covid
Half of UK hospital beds were filled with patients undergoing treatment for COVID19 in January. which would meet the
healthcare effectively disappears for the rest of us
criteria effectively. There may be more efficient ways of maintaining healthcare whilst treating a large wave of patients, but the NHS (and private healthcare) does not have that luxury or capacity. BTW COVID19 was an immediate exclusion from my healthcare insurance policy (I asked) - and that was April 2020.
someone took the bait.
So, given that omicron can be detected by s-gene dropout, and there isn't much alpha around, has anyone gone back through the last month or so of tests to see if there has been an increase in s-gene dropout? Not all labs can detect it, so I don't think you can do it with the public PHE data which provides breakdown by target but lumps all labs (unless the % processed by each lab is consistent over time)? Seems like this would be the quickest way to understand whether we might have significant community transmission already?
Yes, a cheap shot, but it was fun.
If I am wrong about the efficacy of masks, then the worst thing is that I look ridiculous and occasionally feel slightly uncomfortable.
I have already highlighted my issues with masks, as a parent with young kids. I guess we'll get to see the effects on social development.
It is also very isolating, especially as we don't seem to have an end for mask-wearing in sight, and stifles casual and light-hearted conversations. It also means we never see anyone else smile.
immediate exclusion from my healthcare insurance policy
Ah, so you have private health care? No wonder you can pontificate so easily about the nature of Covid and disease control. Saying that, my new job has the unexpected perk of private healthcare, so soon I too will re-join the ranks of people who can see a doctor from time to time.
FWIW, in my opinion it seems that Covid has really shown the NHS is not working out, in it's current form. Some form of hybrid care, like everyone else uses (certainly so in Europe) would be for the best, and maybe this is the chance to move towards it.
Half of UK hospital beds were filled with patients undergoing treatment for COVID19 in January.
Maybe you have a different source, but coronavirus.data.gov.uk indicates that there were nearly 40,000 people in hospital with Covid at the very peak in Jan 2021. There are over 160,000 hospital beds in the UK.
Thanks for your posts as always TiRed. The wheat amongst the chaff.
EDIT: There are plenty of other interesting and useful posts and contributors, I’m not suggesting TiRed’s posts are the only ones worth reading. The signal to noise ratio isn’t great right now though.
