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And in reality that 100k is more likely 5 million,( based on apparently undereporting in scotland by a factor of 50.)
Link?
Nature have an article drawing on a new ICL paper https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w
Includes some estimates of both unmitigated and mitigated scenarios
Crikey and drac, it doesn't need saying again but the work you and your colleagues are doing is truly humbling...we'd be truely fxxxxx without you.
If posting updates and corrections as front-line news on this, as you are, an incorrect and (to many folk) upsetting picture of the UK’s plans deserves more of an apology than a laughing emoji.
You do realise only the photo was wrong? And I’m laughing at VinneyH’s #dracfact
Edukator you’re becoming dull.
Crikey and drac, it doesn’t need saying again but the work you and your colleagues are doing is truly humbling…we’d be truely fxxxxx without you.
Thank you.
RoI comes out with short, specific restrictions similar to UK ones but slightly more stringent. Funny how our government can’t manage this
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0327/1126699-coronavirus-daily-blog/
What's happened to shop opening,has there been an official order. Picked up some bits from the co-op local last night about 9pm. I'm out the house from 7am while 8pm most days currently as a community nurse. So get home tonight, catch up with the kids, pop out for some bits n bobs, everything shut at 8!! Aldi and the co-op in Bakewell, all the little co-op's and Sainsbury's in Matlock. Ended up at posh spar in Curber, but is the 8pm going to be the norm?
Lots are shutting earlier due to reduced staff or allow them to stock shelves. Asda for example stopped night time ours on their 24 hour stores.
Cheers @Drac just seemed to happen over night near me. I've currently put myself on rota for the next 17 days straight due to being out of the family home as my daughter is in the protected cohort. But I'm still the shopper, and am for my folks and a couple of neighbour's. Bit of of pain, but certainly I won't be knocking all my local shop workers, they have been some of the most chipper folk I have seen recently and are working for little above minimum wage or less.
You do realise only the photo was wrong?
I realise you won't be apologising.
Me and many hundreds on here are also working in key roles. Not seeking thanks, recognition or plaudits - but we should think about the accuracy of what we post and who it reaches before we say it, and if we get something wrong, apologise and not laugh it off.
I realise you won’t be apologising.
You’re being a bit sensitive I appear to have got it wrong yes that’s why I says oops and laughed at VinneyH’s dractfact. It is ok to laugh
Small fry in the grand scheme of things, but my sister-in-law has brought home to me why things are going to get worse before they get better. She's an intelligent woman, mid-30s who runs her own business, so not the type of individual I had envisaged ignoring the current rules.
A couple of weeks ago she met a new guy. He lives about an hour and a half from her, so she hasn't seen him for a week since the restrictions came in. She's been whining about it all week but my wife and her mum and dad have managed to convince her that going to visit him this weekend is a no-no.
Today she's announced that it's OK since he has work local to her Monday and Tuesday so he's coming to her for the weekend and a couple of days after before he goes home... No amount of straight talking has convinced her this is muppetry of the highest order...
I now have a full insight into those who have been driving into the Peak. etc. for 'exercise'.
This weekend will be just as bad as last I reckon and then more restrictions come in for the rest of us next week...
Also, I feel kind of bad for thinking this but is there anyone else who can't shake the thought that how morale boosting it might be that the PM and Health Secretary contract the virus and beat it? Both conveniently with mild symptoms...
To all who are in the NHS or provide social care, thanks for what you do and good luck for the future.
You know who you are.
unfortunately for the world blowjo has passed on his dna too many times for him to win a darwin award.
I see trump has now used the Defence Protection Act to force General Motors to produce ventilators; previously there was a stand-off because of the cost.
Update on confirmed cases from Johns Hopkins now 592k, US at 102k at 10.20pm; I thought 600k would have been reached earlier today - my pessimism, not a slowing of the rate.
As if things are not bad enough, the whole of central govt is about to grind to a halt…
I seem to remember 7 days ago that some thought I was being a tad hysterical when I posted this. You never know, a vacuum at the top might result in some improvements over the next two weeks.
I'd really like to know who writes the government advice, I was reading the new advice of Guidance on access to green spaces again
replace the bullet point with a comma an you get....
gatherings of more than two in parks or other public spaces have been banned and the police will enforce this, if you have a garden, make use of the space for exercise and fresh air
Why replace the bullet point with a comma? You trying to make a point? If so, what is it?
Probably won't be long until we move into more stringent lockdown - see Eire.
no point just think it could have been phrased better.
Most of the gov's communications to date could - and should - have been much clearer.
It's not difficult to be explicitly clear but, regrettably, I don't think johnson is capable of delivering an explicit, unequivocal instruction.
Got my positive test result today. Was slightly cocky about it but now feel properly rotten and worrying about Mrs S and kids getting it and logistics of looking after family in that situation. We are staying in tiny rental house at moment so zero opportunity to isolate or distance family.
That escalated quickly. Picked up by ambulance. Assessed in a&e, discovered to have pneumonia, now waiting to move to covid Ward. I’m 41, otherwise fit and healthy, just slightly overweight. No underlying health conditions. I’m scared.
Try to keep positive and remember the majority of people your age will survive. Lots of people are going to experience this before it's over. All the best.
@franksinatra. You’re in the right place and in good time. I have and will be praying for you. Take care.
Of those who still need to work for the good of society, there's seems to be two distinct groups. Those in front line medical roles who are being exposed to Covid-19 and then others like shop workers, bin men, utility repairs (which I am), who are being exposed to "stupid" on a regular basis.
I'm still flabbergasted at the number of people who think they're reason for being outside is more important than the greater good.
If we can't do our jobs, then everyone will suffer. There's still a lot of selfishness going on, from people out who don't need to be to career focused politicians afraid to make the really tough choices and lay down the rules clearly.
Morning,
A good day to de-niggle?
Take care and be kind
TectonicGEO tracker of phone movements from Spring Break in the US. Or how people dispersed through out the US after congregating on one beach.
Movements from one beach in the US
I’ve no idea what you do but it’s been clear from a couple of your posts your working hard and moving things along at a speed that’s surprising even yourself. It’s particularly notable how somber some of your posts have been compared to your normal light hearted ways.
I for one appreciate whatever your doing to help us through this. Whatever the hell it is.
I feel like I should be doing a lot more through my work but mainly I’m rearranging deck checks on the Titanic. We’ve something like 10k vulnerable to highly vulnerable people involved with work in some way. And quite sensibly we’ve been sealed off from them for some time now. Bloody terrifying really.
@franksinatra it's ok to be scared, you're going to be with good people who'll look after you. Take care.
Linked to that Nature article there’s this website https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Includes a lot of data visualisation as well as some easy to understand definitions of different terminology.
Not sure how accurate the data is but it seems well put together.
https://www.randox.com/coronavirus-randox/
The Vivalytic Viral Respiratory Tract Infection (VRI) Array can identify SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) and differentiate it from nine other respiratory infections with similar symptoms, including influenza and all known coronaviruses.
Part of the group supplying the new UK test kits.
I’m going to turn the iPad off and go sit in the garden.
Good luck Frank. Be strong and win!!!
Pushing my best wishes out to @franksinatra and thanks to Drac, Bear, Crikey and anyone else that’s helping out with this.
stay strong, let’s not argue we all have a lot else to concern ourselves with.
Wow that Random video is a bit dramatic !
All the best @franksinatra.
In many respects best now rather than later, if at all.
Bbc headline story quoting 7000 as total death toll for UK when this outbreak is over. Not sure where they ate getting that from.
@crikey Good luck and stay safe.
Same at our place, anyone (medical or nursing) with recent ITU experience returning to the fray, suppose the upside is it’s nice to see some familiar faces again…
Bbc headline story quoting 7000 as total death toll for UK when this outbreak is over. Not sure where they ate getting that from.
Probably the Imperial college report. That's one of the better scenarios.
Kelvin
Things like that are going to look pathetic looking back in two weeks.
Pretty sure that sums the whole thing up since January
all the best Mr Sinatra.
Bbc headline story quoting 7000 as total death toll for UK when this outbreak is over. Not sure where they ate getting that from.
It's the latest study from Imperial , lot of assumptions in the model, but encouraging , & good luck @franisinatra , what hospital you in?
Does anyone know franksinatra properly?
Anything we can do to help his family while he’s away?
If this finishes with just 7,000 deaths that would be a good thing. The deaths from 'standard' flu in 2014 were almost 30,000.
Good call Kelvin.
Bbc were saying it was published Monday as in 23rd. Had the imperial modelling been updated yet?
Good luck franksinatra, you're in the right place and at the right time. Picking up pneumonia is my fear as if I don't keep my exercise and fitness up my asthma leaves me very vulnerable to fluid in the lungs hence infections. More than 2 days without working them for a while and I feel my breathing getting laboured. Keep us updated.
Of those who still need to work for the good of society, there’s seems to be two distinct groups. Those in front line medical roles who are being exposed to Covid-19 and then others like shop workers, bin men, utility repairs (which I am), who are being exposed to “stupid” on a regular basis.
I’m still flabbergasted at the number of people who think they’re reason for being outside is more important than the greater good.
I'm in the second group too and you definitely see lots of stupid every day. Was delivering to a bank and there was an old lady in there who was changing a bag of coppers into a fiver so she could give it to her grandson to get some sweets from the corner shop when he pops round to visit later. The staff were trying to reason with her that it wasn't a journey she should have made but she was adamant to carry on as normal, even took the bus there. Get a lot of people wanting to shake my hand too, how utterly stupid do you have to be to think that is ok right now!?
Sorry I hadn't realised that my link was a live feed. the current headline is "Coronavirus latest news: Britain on course for 5,700 deaths, new Imperial modelling shows"
For clarification I don't do anything remotely close to what people are doing on the front-line of this - I can do everything from home and deserve no thanks for anything! I do, like thousands others though, have a job to play in getting Joe Public through this and in a incredibly fast-moving period where people need accurate information and assurances, I wish we would be more careful about what we post. There's been some absolute garbage said on here and I've not seen most of the thread!
I know it's the internet, and we can all get whipped-up by what we read when it's not our area of expertise, but we are a special little corner of the internet so would like to think some could just dial it down a bit for this particular topic.
Anyhow. 2/10, no random capitalisation, no hope of anything changing etc.
I wish we would be more careful about what we post
I've challenged a few people (politely!) online about posting inaccurate information on this. I got dogs abuse from some of them which really depressed me.
Best wishes fella.
Bugger.
With this lockdown, we can't even steal his shoes.
For clarification I don’t do anything remotely close to what people are doing on the front-line of this – I can do everything from home and deserve no thanks for anything!
You do. By you working it at home it’ll ease the pressure so we can get through this, so thank you.
I thought this was very measured and useful:
Apologies of it's been done
That revised potential death toll looks encouraging but after the stuff that has come before, somehow feels like it could be over optimistic. I guess that absolute number - compared to annual flu - rather depends on the timescale they are spread over.
Let's hope it's pretty accurate, although it feels wrong hoping for 5700 deaths. 😔
I still think we need further restrictions, or complacency will start. I seriously think we need to bin the exercise rule.
Encouragingly, both Aldi and Sainsbury were very quiet this morning, quieter than a standard Saturday in fact.
All the best Frank, I'm sure you'll be okay, keep your chin up bro. 💙
I wouldn't put too much stock in these models right now. Without lots of quality data, they are just conjecture. We partly ended up in this mess by using a 12-year-old influence model which used much lower virulence and death rate variables.
I like the banner on the forum page: "No Car, no gnar, not far" but did anyone else read it as "No Car, no gnar, no fnar"? I felt put out that the magazine was trying to curb my dirty mind...
@drac, here's the picture you were looking for
Slightly less reminiscent of a Hipgnosis album cover.
Sorry I hadn’t realised that my link was a live feed. the current headline is “Coronavirus latest news: Britain on course for 5,700 deaths, new Imperial modelling shows”
I'm a bit surprised that they haven't modelled(*), say, Italy, so they can see ow accurate the prediction is?
(*)maybe they did, but I haven't seen the report
Given a death rate of 1% and 80% of the population likely to get it would give about half a million dead, 5700 seems utterly implausible. Anything less than 100,000 will be a fantastic achievement.
Also just reading back through the last few posts, I think it's important not to grasp at single forecast cases, there is a range of possible forecast outcomes given the extent of what we currently know. Good forecasters and decision makers will consider this range of outcomes and make sure decisions are a as robust as possible in all scenarios. At the moment that probably means putting more weighting on solutions that deal with the pessimistic outlook. The general public seems to hate dealing with uncertainty though so we get single cases punted out then people see it as a failure when they don't come to fruition.
Slightly less reminiscent of a Hipgnosis album cover.
Still very sobering.
So much for the U.K. not being able to build a hospital in a week.
Sort of.
You’re seeing a hospital, I’m seeing exhibitor stalls they’ll stick beds in.
The Chinese hospitals were quite a bit more advanced iirc?
Looking again at the Italy example,they are arguably about halfway through with about 10,000 dead, so a total of around 20,000 seems plausible. Not sure why the UK would be significantly different?
The Chinese hospitals were quite a bit more advanced iirc?
yep
The hospital was built with prefabrication units for fast construction and installation works.The units were laid on pillars to keep them off the ground. Each unit is about 10 m2 and fitted with two beds. Each room is depressurized to prevent airborne microorganisms from spreading out of the hospital. It also has specialized ventilation systems and double-sided cabinets that connect each patient room to hallways, which allows the hospital staffs to deliver supplies without the need to enter each patient room. The hospital is linked by a video system to PLA General Hospital in Beijing.
Sort of.
You’re seeing a hospital, I’m seeing exhibitor stalls they’ll stick beds in.
The Chinese hospitals were quite a bit more advanced iirc?
As long as it is sufficient to allow the medics to do their job it's fine. It is great to see how owners of large spaces have just opened them up for this to happen.
Nice summary of how things have changed so quickly for us from the BBC: The Month Everything Changed.
I have a lot of respect for Ferguson, and welcome any optimistic message right now, but I'm worried that, with Italy not yet confirmed at peak, this is premature, and is not helpful in terms of public messaging at a point when you need maximum compliance.
As long as it is sufficient to allow the medics to do their job it’s fine. It is great to see how owners of large spaces have just opened them up for this to happen.
Yup exactly plus if you look at the jobs for the London one it’s basically a hospital.
And they got robots (the Wuhan one)
The hospital also uses medical robots in its daily operation to deliver medicines and carry test samples
So a lot of measures to protect the most important part of the operation the Drs an Nurses and the other supporting cast.
It is great to see how owners of large spaces have just opened them up for this to happen.
In other news, the kink community is now supplying the NHS.
https://twitter.com/MedFet_UK/status/1243590308878848002
I've got a spare box of nitrile gloves in the garage. Is there any way of getting them where they're needed?
Update. I’m told I’m most well person on covid Ward. Got pneumonia but viral not bacterial so no panic as long as it stays that way. SATS remain the problem, they want to stabilise them at 95% before allowing me home. They are better than they were last night at 90% but still not reliably at 95%.
I think hospital induced boredom might get me before anything else
Family all good so far, thanks for offers of help but all under control so long as Mrs s doesn't get ill
For those of you point scoring or bickering about stats or semantics, please remember this isn't an abstract problem, it is very real for all of us and, for some of us, far to real.
Thanks everyone
arguably about halfway through
Evidence?
Glad to hear that @franksinatra. Hope you stay well.
Changing topic. Don't forget we still have to get through the bump in figures due the the last night of the pub opening binge.
I think it’s important not to grasp at single forecast cases
Wise words, and not just because the data might not be great. My eye was caught by the "50% of us already have it" one. It turns out there are some shady goings on behind its promotion in the media:
Good to hear some positive news @franksinatra hopefully you’ll improve soon to get home.
Great to read that Franksinatra 👍
franksinatra - get well soon; thoughts with you.
Sounds positive Franksinatra. Shout if any of us can help the folks back home.
So a lot of measures to protect the most important part of the operation the Drs an Nurses and the other supporting cast.
This is an important point. And not a dig about the UK approach, many countries have done far too little to protect medical staff as they scaled up treatment facilities at speed.
Today's lockdown activity in our street seems to be cleaning out the garage. Everyone's at it.