Cynic, me?
Conspiracy theorist, maybe.
But surely the (current) vax will be ineffective against a new more “deadly” variant??
Making stuff up doesn't help.
Has anyone seen a reliable report that it is more deadly yet?
No. It's literally just popped up*, there are relatively few detected cases in SA. We won't know for a few weeks whether it results in a higher level of hospitalisations and deaths.
We can strongly suspect that it is more contagious than Delta, because a higher % of SA cases now involve it, which is likely to mean it is outcompeting Delta through transmission.
It's the sheer number of mutations which is sounding alarm bells. Some of these have been previously associated with vaccine evasion, so vaccines 'may' be less effective.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1463998740340121601
It's already arrived in other countries but only been detected because they have rigorous quarantine and testing protocols. Well done to whichever government official twisted arms to get the immediate travel ban, but good chance it's already here, perhaps flown in with a SA rugby fan for the autumn internationals, or any one of the 700 a day who land here. If it is here, it's at the worst possible moment, just in time for the Christmas party season.
The Hong Kong case above was curious - long delay before positive pcr, during which time another quarantining guest was infected, then very high viral load.
Government needs to go into overdrive with the booster campaign now, get it into the 20s and 30s so they have the best possible protection. And be ready with other mitigation, if needed.
*well, it's been spotted for a while, but has now got into gear in sub-Saharan Africa.
After worrying about first ever flu jab side effects, following not getting on with OxAZ in April and June at all with ~3 weeks of malaise for each, I'm relieved to report that I feel fine ~22 hours later (just like my mum last winter, albeit I was concerned my recent ~4 weeks of flu in October might trigger a hyper-active immune response).
... Just got to wait for my Covid booster invite, hopefully from my GP like the previous two, in ~2 weeks. Might pop into surgery to see if they're doing boosters, or whether I should play the NHS online location lottery.
The South African heavily mutated strain doesn't sound good, I'm glad our government have reached a deal with it to not infect anyone travelling from there until Sunday, surprised it's taken this long for a variant to come along that sounds like it will out-compete Delta and Delta Plus in terms of transmitability.
Last year, nobody got colds or flu on the scale that they normally do
This year, the colds and flu are off the scale
Correlation is not causation.
I’m relieved to report that I feel fine
Good news!
Correlation is not causation.
No, but this winter we haven't had all the Australians guinea pigging new flu strains for us, so we're probably less prepared flu vaccine wise. Fingers crossed though, our health system isn't in a good place if we do get a really bad flu year here in the UK.
Surely vaccination + Delta infection must be a decent starting block for protection against the SA++ strain?
This year, the colds and flu are off the scale
Doesn't look like it to me.
Not if its mutated enough so that the vaccine is ineffective?
I must admit I find the mutation rate scary. I do not know enough to know if these types of viruses normally mutate like this
Has anyone seen a reliable report that it is more deadly yet?
While it’s a concern, really not helpful throwing emotive term like that about without any evidence
Calm ya farm bro, just saw it as a headline in our news here this morning. Don't hate me, hate the media.
I must admit I find the mutation rate scary. I do not know enough to know if these types of viruses normally mutate like this
You don't need a high mutation rate if you have MILLIONS of people infected.
Not if its mutated enough so that the vaccine is ineffective?
Ineffective is a scary word, but what the scientists are talking about is potentially less effective to some degree, which is a vastly different thing. Yes, it could mean a higher % of double vaxxed individuals might require hospitalisation if infected. But vaccines would still offer significant protection against serious consequences, so we need to press on with the booster programme.
Last year, nobody got colds or flu on the scale that they normally do
This year, the colds and flu are off the scale. You could argue that forever mask wearing and sanitising, we’ll never have big cold and flu outbreaks again.
Anecdotally my observations are that people are not washing hands with the same thoroughness as last year. This will have more of an effect on spreading non-COVID coronavirii
First European case found in Belgium.
Not classified as variant of concern by WHO which is hardly a surprise.
Whitty concerned if public will go along with further restrictions (code for lockdowns) if needed.
Scenes from India when their hospitals were totally overrun coming into my mind if a lockdown were needed but not implemented/ ignored.
All supposition though and I'm a glass half empty type!
Well every day's a school day - Id have put at least 5 pounds on this being called the epsilon variant but it seems the who have been quietly naming a load more variants since delta so omicron was the next in line. Only 9 characters left in the Greek alphabet so sadly I expect they will be looking for a new naming convention before this is over.
Nah, back to Alpha2, etc.
Scientist on JCVI says the public "need to brace themselves for new restrictions."
Lovely.
Its called Omicrom.
Coming to a works christmas do near you...
O'Micron - the Irish variant.
A little perspective. the new variant identified in South Africa looks to have been derived from our own Alpha (B.1.1.7) which has then acquired a mutation at a site to give it the infectivity of Delta, plus various other mutations that would be expected for chronic immunosuppression (a nice cell paper showed these in a patient). This strain is more easily identified by PCR (as original Alpha was), it is more transmissible than Alpha (but so is Delta), and it may have some reduced susceptibility to antibodies (but certainly not escape). It probably is no more pathogenic than Alpha or Delta, which are little different to Wuhan wild type. Beware anyone making confident statements, save it's more transmissible/infectious. It will be a busy time for lab scientists.
At the moment, although it is growing faster than Delta did in South Africa, I think we should be concerned about the current spread of Delta variants in Europe and elsewhere.
And beware the "Provide Update" press release. In their final analysis, Merck found that the efficacy of Molnupiravir was halved. This is probably regression to the mean - Placebo had a very high progression rate in the data up to the interim analysis. It still works, just nowhere near as well as Pfizer's protease inhibitor.
Merck have an FDA "Ad com" next week. Should be squeaky bum time and I have bought popcorn. You can view these live . We have already approved it based on the interim data. Materials and more info are here
TiRed...deffo not getting a job writing headlines for tabloid press any time soon 😀
Thanks for your continued input here, much appreciated 👍
TiRed
plus various other mutations that would be expected for chronic immunosuppression
Can I just classify what this means?
Does it mean this varient likely originated in sometime with a suppressed immune system?
Cheers.
Short answer. Yes.
Long answer: This paper https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33831372/ followed a patient for a long period and monitored the emergence of mutations. If you started with Alpha (B.1.1.7) then you can tick off the spike mutations found in omicron at key sites of immune attack. So it’s quite likely that the new variant was created through such a patient who had serial passage of viral evolution.
Coronaviruses can also recombine genetic information if hosts are coinfected with multiple strains, so that’s another possibility too.
That’s the general consensus that’s going around. Here’s a decent article about selective pressure:
I’m not sure if convalescent plasma is still being used or trialled - nothing I’ve seen in the literature suggests it was having much (beneficial, at least) effect.
Edit - TiReds beaten me to it! Side note - many thanks for your work and input on this thread Daren!
Thanks for the info guys. It's fascinating stuff, just wish it was at more of an academic level rather than everyday life.lol
The government did the right thing with prompt travel bans on this occasion, but it looks like plenty of cases could well have slipped through in the past couple of weeks. Just direct flights are 700 people a day. Omicron is thought to make up a significant proportion of SA cases now.
As yet there is no evidence it evades the vaccine, sadly that evidence is a few weeks away. Let's hope the vaccines still work.
Noticeably more people masked up in our local Aldi yesterday, possibly on the back of this news
It took me ages to remember where I'd heard Omnicron before
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Makes you think.....
Having caught covid on September 11th is waiting til the new year before having the booster wrong?
Thought we would make the most of our natural immunity.
I’m not sure if convalescent plasma is still being used or trialled – nothing I’ve seen in the literature suggests it was having much (beneficial, at least) effect.
I noticed this a while back...
'This follows the completed analysis of trial results which showed no overall benefit for people in hospital with coronavirus and a decision not to proceed with a third trial into plasma use early in the disease.'
https://www.nhsbt.nhs.uk/covid-19-research/plasma-programme/
Having caught covid on September 11th is waiting til the new year before having the booster wrong?
You might not have the choice. When I booked, all the places local to me had their first free slots for shots in January. My six months is mid-December. Just get it whenever it lets you book, a month either way will make little difference. Assuming we don’t go from our current large standing wave to a much bigger surge of a wave over Xmas that is, which I’m hoping we’ll avoid.
🤞🏼
Having caught covid on September 11th is waiting til the new year before having the booster wrong?
There's always a chance that if this variant is sufficiently different, any natural immunity you've gained from prior infection will be compromised.
IMO, if you are offered a booster now, grab it with both hands, it's additional protection at the time when you may need it. The winter is when you are most likely to be coming into contact with the virus, when your immune system is possibly weakened by lack of natural sunlight etc.
Why wait until your previous vaccine protection has completely waned in January?
When I booked, all the places local to me had their first free slots for shots in January.
There are walk-in booster vaccination sites, if you're prepared to turn up early and hang around a bit, they'll do you there and then. My wife got hers at the local mosque in Keighley.
The time for convalescent plasma is at symptom onset or at admission IF seronegative. This was not known when the hospitalised trials were started. Regeneron showed no benefit for their very potent antibody cocktail if you were already seropositive at admission. But they showed that if you have not made antibodies at admission, then having some very potent ones works very well indeed.
Convalescent plasma is not as potent as the Regeneron cocktail, so the outpatient efficacy will be lower than the reported 80% protection (noted for multiple antibodies including the one I work on). Of course vaccination means you make your own antibodies before you see the virus. That’s why it works so well at keeping people out of hospital. I commend it.
Looking forward to my one day a week in the office in Nottingham on Monday
BBC News - Two cases of new variant of Covid detected in UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59445388
As yet there is no evidence it evades the vaccine, sadly that evidence is a few weeks away. Let’s hope the vaccines still work.
I guess it depends on the definition of work.
Professor Deenan Pillay, director of the Wellcome Trust-funded Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies in South Africa and professor of virology at UCL, told Sky News ......."colleagues in South Africa are reporting that of those individuals with this virus going into hospital... all of them are either unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated".
Sky News: COVID-19: Two cases of Omicron variant detected in UK - with targeted testing to be rolled out in affected areas.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-two-cases-of-omicron-variant-detected-in-uk-with-targeted-testing-to-be-rolled-out-in-affected-areas-12480213
Still, our glorious leader is press-conferencing shortly to either announce something, or pointlessly wiffwaff for a bit about plan B.
I just wanted to thank you for your input here. The best & my go to voice of reason.
No agenda thought/writing is a rare and valuable resource.
Having caught covid on September 11th is waiting til the new year before having the booster wrong?
Thought we would make the most of our natural immunity.
I am completely unvaccinated and had Covid in April 2020. I had a government test which showed anti-bodies last year and again 20 months later.
Interestingly I tested positive for it again 3 weeks ago, I felt a bit rubbish for 3 days then right as rain.
I would not worry yourself about waiting for a booster.
Do we need to be worried about Omicron? I mean, to be fair, I already am, but can anyone say something reassuring? I am not looking forward to this...
martinhutch
Full Member
Still, our glorious leader is press-conferencing shortly to either announce something, or pointlessly wiffwaff for a bit about plan B.
Let's hope Carrie kept him away from the booze last night.
Mind you, Javid didn't even know the correct town in Essex that someone has tested positive for omicron in on tv earlier!
shermer75
Free Member
Do we need to be worried about Omicron? I mean, to be fair, I already am, but can anyone say something reassuring? I am not looking forward to this…
Have a read of TiRed's post a little way up matey.👍
In short, we don't know yet, possibly more infectious than Delta, whether it's any more dangerous, we won't know for a bit.
Even something that increases the overall case load slightly is likely to put extra strain on the NHS, which isn't exactly running with lots of spare capacity at the moment.
So yes, we should be worrying about it in terms of a national response - and taking sensible steps - just in case it turns out to be problematic. Turning to Jesus and preparing for Armageddon on a personal level? - not so much.
Javid didn’t even know the correct town in Essex that someone has tested positive for omicron in on tv earlier!
I'm not getting why that is particularly shocking. How far from Chelmsford was he?
