Ive been reading snippets suggesting that the latest variant of Delta, AY.4.2 might lead to more asymptomatic cases. That seems to be a good thing to me?
A sign that the common trend of more contaigeous and less deadly as a virus mutates is being followed. 1918 flu had two deadly waves then evolved to something less deadly.
In terms of comparing countries for incidence, I think you have to be very careful now. I am absolutely certain French numbers underestimate cases because there are disincentives to getting tested. Non vaccinated need a prescription or they have to pay. So that's two visits to confirm what you know. Many people rely on home lateral flow tests and don't bother to back up with an official test. Several people I know have flown under the offical radar, it's only those that want time off work or school that follow the procedure.
Germany though is still testing a lot of people. You only have to read this forum to know some people in the UK are flying under the radar, both in terms of testing and being recorded as cases.
Germany though is still testing a lot of people.
The UK is testing six times as many people per 1000 as Germany, France is testing twice as many.
We're talking about this week, Ernie, not since the start of the epidemic.
If Germany is currently reporting 65 000 cases a day and a 16% positive test rate they are doing 400 000 tests a day. I'm pretty sure the UK isn't doing 6 times that per 1000 as Mefty claims. The UK would have to be doing about 1.8 million tests a day to meet Mefty's claim.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4
My original claim was that Germany is maintaining its testing levels and that comparisonns between countries are difficult to make.
I said that in France positve cases will fly under the radar because they won't test. However the number of useless tests is boosted by the need for a pass sanitaire which depends on either vaccination or a negative test. Many people who have Covid don't test or do home tests but lots of perfectly healthy people with no symptoms are testing to keep their pass sanitaire valid. Therefore I stand by my statement at th estart of all this taht comparisons should be treated with caution and are all but useless.
And yet people jump on me and start comparing.
Very much on topic, watching the news the Germans who have a very low vaccination rate have now made vaccination obligatory for hospital staff and have a pass sanitaire for restaurants and so on following similar initiatives in France and Italy.
We’re talking about this week
Fair point. The UK claims to have tested over a million yesterday. 1,043,488 to be precise, according to the official gov website.
So not six times more than Germany but still significantly more, and for a smaller population. So whatever it means presumably the UK isn't lagging in testing.
I didn't say the Uk was lagging behind in testing, I said the numbers aren't comparable for the the reasons stated and to be cautious comparing. FFS. Every country has its own reason for testing or not testing which means some places generally test with a reason and in some places tests are done for no particular reason or not done/not done officially.
As for the exact number of daily tests in Germany I'll keep my ears open when they do the TV Covid report rather than working out from the highest weekly positive test rate ever reported which probably gives an underestimate of todays test numbers.
FFS.
Sorry I misread this :
"You only have to read this forum to know some people in the UK are flying under the radar"
Read back and count as you go.
My data came from Our World in Data, they don't have daily test numbers for Germany but do have a seven day rolling average albeit more out of date than for either France or UK. Latest figures per 1,000: UK 12.81 (15 Nov), France 4.26 (13 Nov) and Germany 1.99 (7 Nov)
You can explore the data here
Read back and count as you go.
I'll take your word for it.
Thanks, Mefty. As I thought the low German testing rate from Our World in data numbers are related to the lower incidence of the virus in Germany in the Week up to the 7th, averaging about a third of what they are now.
I work back from the last positive test rate declared to calculate the number of tests from the number of cases reported. I suspect I'm under estimating the number of tests being done at present given the positive test rate curve through previous waves.
I find it bizarre that my post pointing out that it's difficult to copare across countries
In terms of comparing countries for incidence, I think you have to be very careful now
provoked comparing across countries which demonstrates the point I originally made - be careful about comparing things that aren't as comparable as they might appear to be until you look at what drives people to take or not take tests, and how that influences the positive rate and total numbers.
Melbourne doing an eat out to help out scheme to encourage people to get back into the city. Seems pretty similar to the UK scheme from last year
nickjb
Free Member
Melbourne doing an eat out to help out scheme to encourage people to get back into the city. Seems pretty similar to the UK scheme from last year
I think that accounted for 17% of infections over here at the time?
The last "postive rate" unsurprisingly is also from 7 Nov, it is highly likely to have gone up but there is no point speculating. You are just going to have to wait until some official data gets released - Germany seems to be a laggard when it comes to releasing data.
All of mainland Europe is seeing a rise at a common growth rate (doubling time - I don’t worry about absolute numbers as these reflect testing practices, but growth rates do not). The U.K. is a bit of an outlier in that we’ve been high for some time a well July actually. It’s my suspicion that we will see a further rise. Austria is currently the highest per capita.
Looking at emergent strains, AY.4.2 is taking off and has higher reports in Germany and Denmark. I’d like to say that it’s vaccination keeping the U.K. from growing, but Austria has the same vaccination rate as here. In truth, we don’t really know. But looking across Europe there is a very consistent story. The normal reason for this is an emergent strain. Delta was clear when it emerged. We’ve seen Delta plus come up whilst delta was still high in the U.K. and it was under the radar. Some other countries showed a clear peak and manifest decline. But not all. US has stopped declining
Time to keep your hands inside the cars at all times.
it is highly likely to have gone up
Nah, down! 😉
We'll soon find out.
Will boosters make a difference?
Do other countries have the equivalent of our ONS random testing?
Dissecting the early COVID-19 cases in Wuhan So probably not an escaped bio-weapon the Daily Fail will not be happy.
Just had my booster. Moderna. Bloody stings, which the AZ didn't.
Hopefully boosting my immunity at just the right time.
the Daily Fail will not be happy
I don't read the Daily Mail enough to know its stance on the matter but I do know that it won't help Joe Biden's anti-Chinese rhetoric which is fairly central to his world view.
Absolute protection levels halve every two months. This is the lifetime of the B cells that are making the antibody after you’ve had your vaccination. Whilst the exact level of antibodies affording protection is still moot, more is always better. A booster at six. On the (when you’ve only got about 1/8) of the level will push those antibodies back up to about 3x what they were after your first jab.
So far there have been no strains that have truly escaped vaccine. The Beta strain from South Africa was the closest, with about 10x less sensitivity to antibodies. A booster will push your levels back up again. So I can’t imagine that they won’t afford protection.
There’s an increase in admissions (and deaths) across Europe, following cases. But the absolute numbers are still the same as earlier in the year, implying that the vaccines are still working to stop serious disease.
[tl:dr] antibodies wane and you lose half of any protection in two months. But boosters give more than first jab so that will put you back again and add a few months longer to see you through the winter. Get one.
Waining and more transmissible variants: the booster programme in Israel showed the importance of the boosters as regards onwards transmission as well as reducing serious illness, but while they were rolling it out they used physical and social measures to get infections under control. That lesson is one that many European countries need to learn from, including ourselves.
antibodies wane and you lose half of any protection in two months.
What happens if during those two months you come repeatedly in contact with the virus, is antibody production maintained?
Is complete isolation from covid not ideal?
My booster was in July on the CovBoost trial which is being used to set booster policy. Then I had Delta early September so hopefully enough to see me through winter.
Absolute protection levels halve every two months. This is the lifetime of the B cells that are making the antibody after you’ve had your vaccination.
Dumb question: why is it that some diseases a single vaccine or single infection conveys lifelong immunity, and others such as Covid it wanes quickly?
I had previously thought that it was due to ongoing mutations / different strains of the repeat diseases, but the above quote seems to contradict that.
I can book my booster from Sunday or Monday I think, and get it from the 20th December. I'll be trying to get that and hopefully enjoy Christmas.
How have people been reacting to boosters? I had ox-az, first jab floored me for 24 hours, second I didn't notice any success effects. Booster would be Pfizer or moderna I guess.
AZ first, no problems. Moderna booster on Mon, slightly sore arm but no other problems.
Wife had AZ first, no problems. Pfizer on Wed, no problems.
Both 50.
We both thought we were a bit tired after all of them but not enough to really call it an issue and could have been imagining it.
How have people been reacting to boosters? I had ox-az, first jab floored me for 24 hours, second I didn’t notice any success effects. Booster would be Pfizer or moderna I guess.
I had a lot of reaction to my first AZ jab, very little reaction to the second AZ jab. A week ago I had a Pfizer booster with no reaction at all.
How have people been reacting to boosters? I had ox-az, first jab floored me for 24 hours, second I didn’t notice any success effects. Booster would be Pfizer or moderna I guess.
Medium reaction to first AZ (mild flu symptoms, fever etc. for a couple of days, nothing for 2nd AZ, lucid dreams and disturbed sleep overnight after Pfizer.
Both AZ earlier in year - mild headache few days after 2nd for few days.
Pfizer booster 8 days ago, achey shoulder was about it.
Wife had both Pfizer floored after 2nd, booster same time as me, bit grotty day or 2 but fine.
We bury my father in law today after getting it in hospital despite double vac, was waiting for his booster appointment. Unvaccinated brother-in-laws, 1 has covid and can't come in to funeral,😞 will have to stream it and come to the graveyard after.
What happens if during those two months you come repeatedly in contact with the virus, is antibody production maintained?
The cells that make antibodies, called B cells, are declining with a half-life of two months. Exposure to the virus might boost some B cell production as per vaccination. Infection is the natural booster for coronaviruses and occurs about every two years as the antibodies decline.
Yes there will be T cell immunity, but the speed of response matters in relation to the rechallenge. A fast response might mean asymptomatic infection. A slow response symptoms, and a very slow response...
The cells that make antibodies, called B cells, are declining with a half-life of two months. Exposure to the virus might boost some B cell production as per vaccination. Infection is the natural booster for coronaviruses and occurs about every two years as the antibodies decline.
Is there any long term concern about receiving lots of vaccinations in a short space of times? I'm thinking in terms of how long can you keep antibody levels high, and is there a long term problem in doing it?
(Not an anti-vax question, honest. I worked in medical research many years ago, but it's a long time ago, and the immunology course was the bit I needed to memorise to get through the exam! 😀 )
Thanks TiRed - that's a pretty clear and simple summary for us lay people.
If anyone thinks that what is happening in Austria at the moment is a good thing, then you have certifiably lost the plot
How long after having covid should a double jabbed person wait til having the booster?
Northshoreniall, sorry about your father in law, take care.
How long after having covid should a double jabbed person wait til having the booster?
Think MCJnr had to wait 4 weeks between end of quarantine and getting his second jab, so I'd assume the same for the booster.
If anyone thinks that what is happening in Austria at the moment is a good thing, then you have certifiably lost the plot
Yep, can't believe so many people are posting how fantastic it is.....oh, wait 🤔
If anyone thinks that what is happening in Austria at the moment is a good thing, then you have certifiably lost the plot
The surge in Coronavirus cases or full nation lockdown or mandatory jabs or the likely protests against mandatory jabs?
Care to offer some more information rather than an ambiguous post?
I had a lot of reaction to my first AZ jab, very little reaction to the second AZ jab.
You may want to check that both doses were UK produced. My first was an Indian batch and had no after effect. The second was a UK batch and I was a bit rough and 5 months later the injection site still aches and movement in some directions is still painful.
Dumb question: why is it that some diseases a single vaccine or single infection conveys lifelong immunity, and others such as Covid it wanes quickly?
It's been known for decades that corona type viruses escape/overcome single vaccine inoculations and it is very complex/impossible(?) to develop a single use vaccine against them thus why you need boosters. And thus why you get absolute idiots saying they're not having the vaccine as it wears off so what's the point - well...... duh..... you ****ing idiot.
Yep, can’t believe so many people are posting how fantastic it is…..oh, wait 🤔
Did I say they were? It was a statement, not an accusation
Care to offer some more information rather than an ambiguous post?
Mandatory vaxxing
Ahh a government trying to protect it's citizens, bastards.
