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I could do with some clarification- is flattening the curve’s main benefit that it spreads the workload for the NHS/reduces chance of overloading the system?
In a nutshell, yes. The NHS will still be overloaded, but the extent should be reduced.
If somebody needs, and has access to ICU/ventilation, how likely is it that they’ll come home?
Depends on age and underlying illness. I did read some suggestion from Lombardy that outcomes for the over 80s (once they were at the point of requiring ventilation) were pretty lousy even if they were ventilated.
Just relaying the news as I hear it Drac, but don’t believe me if you don’t want to.
Sometimes you’re a bit too quick to insult, far too quick today.
No, I’m simply asking where you got it from the news’ really isn’t that reliable. I’m not saying you’re wrong but I’d rather we stuck to proven facts.
Does anyone believe “lockdown lite” that we seem to be under will be done in 3 weeks? I think they know it will need longer, much longer, but simply don’t trust the public to be told it will be 12 weeks and then behave rationally.
I've got 16 weeks in the work sweepstake. All of my major customers at work are planning to 12 weeks as a minimum, the recovery after we reopen everything will take longer plus any further lockdowns as and when they are required. 2020 will be a constant fight of survival and reactionary measures for a lot of companies with no real way of being able to make any investment plans.
We are in for a very bumpy ride.
Yay. The landlady's 75 year old brother has just been diagnosed as having Covid-19.
He has been on the 5th floor of the hospital for 9 days as they are trying to get him to a state where they can operate on his brain tumour. And now he has this.
Oh well, he's in the right place and ahead of the rush. Poor bugger.
Right off to do some deliveries and collections for the vulnerable. Stay safe folks.
Above and beyond, fella. Above and beyond.
Chapeau Drac, thank you.
Thanks Kimbers, martinhutch, slowoldman.
The trouble with that link slowoldman is the implied inconsistencies in defining categories between countries eg France has over 10% of cases marked as critical, the UK 1.5%, and since the UK has been largely only testing in hospital that would imply the percentage of infected that were serious/critical is even lower.
Seems to me that there's not really any value in any of those number, unless you're keeping score.
boris has it
Maybe he shouldn't have been shaking hands with coronavirus patients. He didn't? You mean that was just a stupid lie to make out he was a no nonsense man of the people?
Jesus.
Whatever you think of the man, I wish him all the best for a full recovery.
Maybe he shouldn’t have been shaking hands with coronavirus patients. He didn’t? You mean that was just a stupid lie to make out he was a no nonsense man of the people?
He was many hundreds of miles from the nearest confirmed Corona Patient at the time, it was a Trump like obvious lie that the faithful will swallow just because they want to.
TBH, IMHO there is a pre-lockdown Boris and a post-lockdown Boris. I'm finding it hard to hate him at the moment.
boris has it
Dominic Cummings likely forced him to lick an Italian pensioner.
If he gets it and dies he's a brave martyr , if he gets and recovers it's a message to the public that he can "Get Coronavirus Done"
Await headlines about how he's "defeated the virus" in a week or so.
Of the couple of broadcasts I’ve seen of him of the last week he sounded like he had a bad cold. Imagine everyone he’s spread it to
Isn't his fiancee pregnant and in the high risk category?
Much as I despise the man, I can't bring myself to wish him and his families any harm.
A lot of talk about this crisis making us see our true selves. Up to individuals if you want to reveal yourselves to be spiteful and vindictive.
I can’t bring myself to wish him and his families any harm.
I don't see anyone doing that.
Depends if you believe this quote from Cummings is true, a lot of people in government don’t like him, but Tim Shipman as reliable as any journo & he wouldn’t have published it if he wasn’t certain.
I believe that Cummings would say that - he'd be right at the top of the Nazi state if he'd lived in 1930s Germany. But there is a process going on here, and I don't think everything is being controlled by Cummings sat in his leather chair stroking his cat like a Bond villain.
I don't wish him harm, but given what he's done and how he got to where he is, neither can I find it in me to wish him well. Sorry.
. I’m finding it hard to hate him at the moment
[checks] Nah. No problem here. Just think Brexit at the end of the year.
Doing his bit for Herd Immunity, good on him. Nice to see him taking it on the chin, allowing it to make its way through the Cabinet...
Raab designated survivor. The farce may actually get worse...
The cynic in me thinks it probably isn't bad for him. Isolation so no tough questions to deal with. Showing how brave he is suffering. I hope if he really does have it that he doesn't suffer and wish him a speedy recovery. I'm sure there will be a ventilator there for him should he need one.
Unfortunately if he has it witty will also no doubt have it, which can't be good.
If somebody needs, and has access to ICU/ventilation, how likely is it that they’ll come home?
Do you really want to know. Hint: it is terrible. High dependency is better.
The 50% figure above is from previous ARDS studies that are not for COVID-19.
I see Boris has it now, wonder if it will change his strategy?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52060791
Now Johnson has it, will they have to trace all his contacts?
might get embarassing when he has to detail all his girlfriends!
& we know from his illegitimate kids that hes not a fan of PPE
I see Boris has it now, wonder if it will change his strategy?
Easy excuse for being kept away from any prying interviewers.
I don’t wish him harm, but given what he’s done and how he got to where he is, neither can I find it in me to wish him well. Sorry.
+1 except the "sorry".
Health Secretary Hancock also tests positive
UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock has tested positive for the coronavirus. He is self-isolating at home and his symptoms are said to be mild.
And another
Remind me whats the criteria for being tested?
On the Boris - hope he recovers and family is ok. Doesn't mean I'm going to be lionising the great lummox any time soon.
On the laws of unintended consequences - having just seen photos of the supermarket nr my folks. Happy people being snaked through barriers three or four times. Under 2m separation between 'lanes' and facing each other.
Crikey it's not hard, biosecurity first - build everything else up around it. Yes they get a nice clean trolley or basket but they've just spent 10-15 minutes coughing at each other.
If you are controlling a queue by snaking it through barriers. Set the damn thing out with the minim two meter spacings if not more.
OK rant over, well maybe not. In a total WTF people apparently came out of the local city and did a locust run on (another) supermarket and butchers. They'd come about 40miles.
On the lockdown sweepstakes
3 months minimum with increasing restrictions which are eased off later
With another round a few months later
Sporadic restrictions after that for up to 2 years
Remind me whats the criteria for being tested?
He's the Secretary of State for Health.
Remind me whats the criteria for being tested?
You need to be seriously ill in hospital or a member of government/royalty.
Remind me whats the criteria for being tested?
Health service are testing employees with symptoms I’m sure it’s possible the same for government workers.
You need to be seriously ill in hospital or a member of government/royalty.
🤦🏻♂️
Nope can confirm health workers are not getting tested as backlog has already completely overwhelmed supply to the point where we are again just being told to isolate if symptomatic
Health service are testing employees with symptoms I’m sure it’s possible the same for government workers.
Advice given to wife, If you have symptoms or are with someone who has experiencing symptoms fill in the online form to request a test.
Now this form is only available on the NHS intranet, she has been told she would have to go into work to complete this form as it has to come from her account. Mind boggling
One rule for one section of society
Nope can confirm health workers are not getting tested as backlog has already completely overwhelmed supply to the point where we are again just being told to isolate if symptomatic
I can be tested within hours of showing the symptoms and have the results very quickly. So yes health services are testing their employers, yours might be different or really badly organised like Bruneep’s wife.
On the Boris – hope he recovers and family is ok.
Which one?
Much as I despise the man, I can’t bring myself to wish him and his families any harm.
Nothing to do with despising but we would be a lot better off with someone leading at the moment, rather than playing public opinion and not listening to experts.
Our hospital Trust has 20 tests per directorate per day for staff use. It’s at discretion of persons in charge of the various depts who gets them.
I’m showing symptoms today. Cough, aching, feverish. Wife is of course now forced to self isolate for 14 days. She’s an Advanced Clinical Practitioner. She should be doing nights Tues/Wed/Thurs in ED, covering the SHO rota as so many of them are off.
She’s spoken to lead ED consult today and my name has been put on a list for one of those tests on Monday am, results to be due by Tues pm. Idea is that as without her there would only be 2 medics covering the ED each night (one of those shifts was already Locum) if I test negative she can go back to work on Tuesday. I think they are going to test her as well and if I am positive but she’s negative she will go and live in a local hotel for a few days until my 7 day quarantine is over.
Trolling Cummings?
Which one?
Yes, although you have to wonder how many of the little Bori have been informed or is that spared by their mothers. Must be a bit hectic trying to protect assorted offspring of such a prolific PM.
Isn't Cummings in a high risk category? Wasn't there some operation or something he was meant to be having before taking on Brexit. Although he could also be having a bit of fun at our expense.
The video of Dominic Cummings legging it out of Downing Street!
Two weeks ago he was all in favour of herd immunity. Now as soon as his herd are infected, the slimy little shit is running away.
poor ol' boris always comes up short when compared to his hero's, has none of churchills oratory skills and I don't remember the Mayor from Jaws being eaten by the shark!
The trouble with that link slowoldman is the implied inconsistencies in defining categories between countries
It's all I have, sorry. There are the daily FT graphs but not much detail.
Witty has symptoms as is self-isolating. Not good
well it raised a smile in our household
Nothing to do with despising but we would be a lot better off with someone leading at the moment, rather than playing public opinion and not listening to experts.
I think he is listening to experts, just not the experts some of us think he should.
Question for dog walkers. My mum has had a go at me for allowing my hound to continue to jump up on the bed, sofa etc. She thinks the dog will trail in the virus on her wee paws.
I'm thinking this is so unlikely as to not be worth worrying about, but is it worth washing her paws every time she come in from a walk on the pavement?
Possibly, who knows who has spat on the ground
Another 2 weeks for us in France.
Relax everyone, Gove's got it covered.......
So, confirmation that we will have 3 Nightingale Hospitals London, Manchester, Birmingham. I saw footage of a huge O2 tank being fitted in London.
Dogs aren't allowed on the furniture or in the bedroom in my house tpbiker. Pets sometimes try to keep pets...
Dogs aren’t allowed on the furniture or in the bedroom in my house tpbiker. Pets sometimes try to keep pets
Is that since coronavirus or an ongoing rule? Maybe I should be paying more attention to this kinda stuff in the short term.
On TF1 news tonight they've given us all sorts of interesting information:
The effects of confinement on the number of new cases and deaths with stats and percentages
The age profile of people hospitalised
The percentage of negative tests that are false negatives
The profile of (younger) person that is seriously affected by the virus
The number of hotel beds so far requisitioned by the French state to house medical staff during the crisis
But the last time I posted something from radio news (Europe 1, confirmed by Madame who was also listening, I hadn't heard it wrong) Drac tagged it as something like Edufact which I found insulting. He then said not to post news from the news so I'm afraid I can't share the above info.
Got my positive test result today. Was slightly cocky about it but now feel properly rotten and worrying about Mrs S and kids getting it and logistics of looking after family in that situation. We are staying in tiny rental house at moment so zero opportunity to isolate or distance family.
So, confirmation that we will have 3 Nightingale Hospitals London, Manchester, Birmingham.
It’s the confirmation, and scale, of the makeshift morgues that hit me. Those field hospitals will be horrible places for people to die, with no visitors and no comforts of any kind. Yet we still have a thread about travelling by car for somewhere nice and quiet to walk the dog or ride the trails. Things like that are going to look pathetic looking back in two weeks.
Watching channel 4 news covering where there’s a hotspot of outbreaks in Birmingham, I absolutely ****ing despair.
People carrying on as if nothing’s changed. Just a normal day swanning about a packed shopping street. Not a bit of social distancing going on. Morons!
Meanwhile they’re converting a hanger at Birmingham airport to a morgue to store up to 1500 dead bodies
The 2 things aren’t linked, obviously.
Relax everyone, Gove’s got it covered…….
i wonder if that lectern has been disinfected ? nothing would surprise me now :/
But the last time I posted something from radio news (Europe 1, confirmed by Madame who was also listening, I hadn’t heard it wrong) Drac tagged it as something like Edufact which I found insulting. He then said not to post news from the news so I’m afraid I can’t share the above info.
What you actually did was make claims then when asked for evidence you said you heard it on the news, without any proof.
My mum has had a go at me for allowing my hound to continue to jump up on the bed, sofa etc.
Gross. It's a pet, not your lover.
Does anyone know how asda click and collect works? I have a slot booked for next week, is it going to be a case of queuing for ages to pick up my delivery, or can I just drive up, open the boot and off I go?
Given supermarkets appear the most likely place I'll get it, I'm keen to plan my trip accordingly and spend as little time as possible in vicinity of anyone else!
Yeah the excel 4K bed one is pretty sobering.
Yeah the excel 4K bed one is pretty sobering.
It's a long way from a private suite at bupa isn't it...☹
Apparently it's going to peak in 9 days, by which time well have around 100k cases confirmed,of which going by current stats nearly half require admission to hospital. That is an awful lot of beds required..
And in reality that 100k is more likely 5 million,( based on apparently undereporting in scotland by a factor of 50.)
It's not going to be a fun next 2 weeks by any stretch.
It’s not going to be a fun next 2 weeks by any stretch.
Far from it. I’m on holiday but agreed to some overtime, I very very rarely do overtime, as know it’s going to tough on crews.
What you actually did was make claims then when asked for evidence you said you heard it on the news, without any proof.
Other people have been quoting what they've heard on Radio 4 without a problem, why can't I quote from Europe 1?
the original spat was around the number of people Europe 1 declared testing positive of those with bad enough symptoms to be tested in the first place (only 20%). In particualar the use of anosmie that Molgrips in particular IIRC was hailing as highly indicative. Well according to
anosmie is quite rare and has been integrated into the range of possible symptoms since 20/03/2020 in France. It's also a symptom of flu and the common cold.
It's interesting comparing the charts produced in the UK and France for CV19, Flu and alerigies. They're different! Here's one:
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/coronavirus-symptom-chart-shows-whether-17996105
Apparently I shouldn't have a sore throat because according to that table because you don't get a sore throat with alergies. I can assure you I get a sore throat every year at this time because of the agressive tree pollen.
And as it's relevant I'll quote one stat from TF1 news this evening. They said 20% of negative tests are false negatives. The fit healthy 16-year-old who died of the virus in Paris was one of those for whom the test was a false negative on admission with breathing difficulties.
TF1 replay if you don't believe me, unfortunatley there isn't a replay for this morning's Europe 1 report.
Yeah the excel 4K bed one is pretty sobering.
Madrid, not Excel. #dracfact
Oooops! 🤦🏻♂️ 😂
Other people have been quoting what they’ve heard on Radio 4 without a problem, why can’t I quote from Europe 1?
You didn’t quote.
Provide links like you’ve just done and then we can review it.
Well I got the phone call today, can I work Sat and Sun night even though I'm on annual leave. My shifts will be changing to 8-8 from now on and although this weekend I'm officially working in theatre, I've been advised that I'll be going back to work on ITU where I spent 20 years.
In the style of Airplane!, I sure picked the wrong time to retire and go back part-time. I know a number of ex-ITU nurses who have retired over the last 5 or so years and the ones I've met have all said that they are not going back.
The "20% of neagative tests are false negatives" is a direct quote within the limits of my ability as a translator, the profile of people tested in the study is paraphrasing a fairly detailed explanation in the context of a report on what can be learned from what's happening in eastern France.
Rather than mocking you'd do better to take an interest because you are days away from dealing with the same issues.
Drac
Subscriber
Oooops! 🤦🏻♂️ 😂
If posting updates and corrections as front-line news on this, as you are, an incorrect and (to many folk) upsetting picture of the UK's plans deserves more of an apology than a laughing emoji.