JCVI have published there’no evidence of vaccine effect “waning”
Well, I suppose the 'effect' of waning immunity hasn't been demonstrated yet in terms of increasing hospitalisations and deaths in the oldest vaccinated cohort, but that doesn't mean that immunity isn't starting to wane.
although more data on long covid in teens may paint a different picture.
Interested in this - purely anecdotally and locally, I'm not hearing of unvaccinated teens reporting long covid for as long or as bad as older friends did, if at all. Would really like to see some data one way or the other.
Given the waning immunity in the vulnerable groups, and the risk/balance between Covid and side effects in the teens, I can't help thinking stocks might be better used as boosters to protect the vulnerable if they catch it from their kids and grandkids, rather than jabbing the kids and hoping it reduces transmission
(Obviously vulnerable people of all ages should be priority)
Stealth edit due to obvious poor wording!
I can’t help thinking stocks might be better used as boosters to protect the vulnerable
Absolutely. This autumn boosters for the vulnerable should be the first priority now.
But we should have vaccinated teens over the summer, ready to go back now. We didn’t because we didn’t have stocks.
In light of that, we should have spent the summer keeping some of our social mitigations in place to reduce spread before the return to school, and improving mitigation in (and going to/from) schools which will now be full of the unvaccinated as summer ends.
could that up take simply be due to testing going up again?
Undoubtedly some, but we'll have an idea of the extent in a few weeks when the deaths and hence proportion of positive tests to cases comes in.
I see the press are saying the teens situation is "chaos".
Seemed pretty clear cut to me. JVCI think it's marginal benefit for individuals so CMOs need to make a societal decision.
And now Flu vaccine stocks are delayed - by at least two weeks - due to the supply chain issues. This is really cooking up to be a perfect storm of Government mishandling.
In the background - I havent seen it in the front pages - Boris has extended the legal powers for social restrictions by six months. That’s quite telling IMO.
In the background – I havent seen it in the front pages – Boris has extended the legal powers for social restrictions by six months. That’s quite telling IMO.
That was kept quiet. Thought the anti-lockdown freedom groups would be trumpeting it.
Its there if you google it, the back benchers want to rebel of course...
Just to add, post vaccination Covid symptoms for both of us with Delta are like a head cold, do completely different to the classic symptoms. Test results also now came back for us all in about 18 hours.
tested positive on return from 2 weeks in France. started feeling ropey on our last day but all the tests I had to do to return to UK came back negative - did another LF test on return which was negative and was starting to feel ok (planning next ride) then that evening took a real dive downward. Had an awful night sleep very similar to vaccine side effects and had to do the required day 2 PCR test the next day but did a LF before it out of curiosity and quick result and it was positive. I've since done 4 all positive and felt like I've been hit by a truck - mixture of worst head cold ever with a touch of flu again very similar to AZ side effects I had. Waiting for results of PCR test but feeling much better today - double jabbed and also asthmatic but no asthma or breathing difficulties and blood oxygen levels been normal and only a slight rise in temperature.
Member of JCVI interviewed on PM the other evening said that increasing reports in the US of heart issues, and some of those issues emerging some time after second jab, vs. low incidence of serious effects from covid in that age group, coupled with little apparent reduction in transmission of Delta by the vaccinated were key points that feed in to their decision.
They've said their bit and the government as usual are waiting to see what the UK population focus group think before doing what they think will play best politically.
I think it's the correct assessment, and I'm wary of any process which starts balancing the chance of serious vaccine side effects in children with societal/educational disruption.
Even if that were a valid argument, the time for that discussion was in Spring/Summer, rather than when the term is actually starting. Even if they give the green light next week, it will take until after Christmas for them to deliver a two dose vaccination, and for the resulting immunity to develop.
Piss poor communication again, JCVI have effectively scuppered any serious roll out to under 16s now even if the government decides to do it. There will be plenty of wavering parents who will decide not have little Charlie vaccinated. Should have been one announcement after all elements of this were reviewed, simple and clear, people in this country can't handle nuanced messages.
I also think all the scare mongering and navel gazing over this vaccine will impact future take up of traditional vaccines.
I’m wary of any process which starts balancing the chance of serious vaccine side effects in children with societal/educational disruption.
That's always been a key reason for vaccinations, protect the herd as much as the individual. Unfortunately this vaccine has been assessed primarily on the benefit to the individual setting back decades of public health improvements.
JCVI have published there’no evidence of vaccine effect “waning”. Hmmm, really?
I pointed one member to the recent us study by Mayo clinic. It shows clearly a waning effect with half life similar to that of antibodies. This is wholly expected. One year is about six half-lives. So antibodies will fall by 64x. The vaccine started them at about 4-times an infection so that buys 100days more protection The amount needed for sterile protection will wane after perhaps six months or more. The amount for hospitalisation protection is not known. My guess is an extra 100-150 days or 2-3 more halving if titer.
I really don't understand the reasoning for the JCVI advice.
We give the HPV vaccine to 12 and 13 year old boys and girls, most of which won't get any benefit from it for a few years. It has rare side effects - 1/100,000 restricted airways, very rare risk of anaphylactic reaction. I'm happy that the risk benefit equation is in favour of it and my daughters have been vaccinated.
And yet the JVCI have advised that the COVID vaccine shouldn't be given to 12-15 year old children with very similar risks and future rewards. What's the difference?
hat’s always been a key reason for vaccinations, protect the herd as much as the individual.
When it comes to children, who can't give their own informed consent, the balance of risk vs benefit has to be more directly in favour of the individual.
An obvious example would be measles vaccination, where yes, the aim is to achieve herd immunity, but the direct risk of harm from the illness is much greater to children.
Also, this vaccination does not prevent infection and onwards transmission. It may make it slightly harder to spread, but we have to get away from the idea that herd is achievable here. Each successive variant - Kent, then Delta, has moved the finish line further out of reach. Coupled with waning immunity and the possibility of vaccine evading variants, it's no longer a realistic aim. Vaccination against covid is primarily about reducing serious harm to the individual receiving the vaccine - breaking the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths. And the chances of covid causing ICU admission in 12-15s is roughly the same as that individual being struck by lightning. So when you look at the (still tiny) risk of say, myocarditis, in that age group, then it's hard to argue that this is in their direct interests.
We give the HPV vaccine to 12 and 13 year old boys and girls, most of which won’t get any benefit from it for a few years.
Yes, but the guiding principle is still a direct benefit to the individual, even if it is a deferred one. The reasons for giving it at 12 is that sexual activity does begin in the early teens for a minority of children. It's arguable that the benefit to boys is far lesser, but it still exists and was taken into account when balancing the risk of vaccine damage.
It's easy to dismiss this as dithering and scaremongering, but I'd be more reluctant to receive a vaccine (or allow my child to receive one), in circumstances where the risks and benefits had not been carefully and diligently assessed in this way, even if it introduces a slight delay. This is the process, it works, and is necessary.
But we should have vaccinated teens over the summer, ready to go back now. We didn’t because we didn’t have stocks.
It's almost as if our "world beating" vaccination programme is not actually, you know, world beating.
Re the JCVI recommendation, Deepti Gurdasani has a long Twitter thread on the flaws in their analysis:
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1433868576075784200?s=21
Using population as a denominator is a bit odd, but using confirmed cases is also not ideal, particularly in the time period they've covered - mid 2020 to March 2021, which has a mishmash of very limited testing, lockdowns, and regular LFTs for kids which might detect more asymptomatic cases, as there may be a significant underestimation the caseload in children.
I'd be interested in seeing the JCVI numbers, as it actually covers the age group they're considering, rather than one which covers 16 and 17-year-olds as well. This one, at first glance either, doesn't seem to have any data on underlying conditions in the children who were admitted to ICU.
We've just be warned to expect a major spike in test numbers over the next two weeks. We have increased test kit assembly rate and stockpiles and have been told we are really ramping up recruitment as we are going to be a prime site to divert from smaller local test sites.
Joy.
I've just seen the Joe Rogan stuff (&bedmakers comments 😳)
I knew he was a bit of a tool, but this is surely the end of him as a credible interviewer
Anyway my son just noticed the Charioteer racing the length of Italy for the Romans in Asterix & The Chariot Race (2017), is more prescient than Cummings blog
Meanwhile, in America.
In case you thought it was a Daily Mash type thing.
You know they have access to antibodies for symptomatic infection in Oklahoma. There are tv ads running now to get an infusion. I can’t abide DTC direct to consumer advertising of medicines. But here is the exception. If you have symptomatic covid and are at risk of disease (old, obese, diabetic…) seek treatment urgently. The us government is paying.
I would lay off the dewormer. Unless you are a cow.
In case you thought it was a Daily Mash type thing.
I'll take the Daily Mash over Rolling Stone as a reliable source of information.
I really don’t understand the reasoning for the JCVI advice.
We give the HPV vaccine to 12 and 13 year old boys and girls, most of which won’t get any benefit from it for a few years. It has rare side effects – 1/100,000 restricted airways, very rare risk of anaphylactic reaction. I’m happy that the risk benefit equation is in favour of it and my daughters have been vaccinated.
I’m not saying the JCVI response is logical but there are differences for Covid and HPV:
1. HPV vaccine given younger / earlier requires fewer doses (I think over 16s get three doses).
2. HPV has a long lasting benefit - immunise at 13 to protect from cancer at 30. Nobody knows how long covid vaccine will last, but it’s almost certainly not that sort of timeline.
3. Whilst many 13 yr olds will not be sexually active and at risk for some time, some will and it’s not realistic to ask “the shaggers” to come forward for an injection.
I’ve not compared the flu vaccine logic - it might be a more sensible comparison - we recommend all school pupils get flu vaccine but healthy secondary school pupils rarely get big sick with flu.
You have to question the sanity of these people, if they are prepared to believe in this bollocks and actually ingest this stuff how far away are they from responding to "go shoot any suspected Democrats"
This is a monumental issue, this is the real life incarnation of every Zombie movie ever made. I am starting to think there is something in the Kool Aid.
We sort of laugh at and deride this stuff on here but i think this is a pretty disturbing behavior pattern by a large section of the US population from Trumps election loss to Qanon to storming the Whitehouse to the proud boys. This stuff prospers less here probably due to idleness and lack of guns. No wonder that the Taliban and the rest of the global nut jobs think they are winning when they see this happening.
Oh and:
4. Vaccinating for HPV after you’ve become infected, not only has no benefit but probably leads to a false sense of security. Vaccinating for Covid after previous infection does not seem to be problematic.
won't be popular, but I think it's sensible
Aye, all the SNP haters were raging about it up here, fuds.
Another weekend, another obvious set of outcomes (moan alert);
A) prior anti-vax uncle admits he did have coronavirus after all after a near miss with a hospital. Now recovering at home, he still won’t get the vaccine when he’s recovered, because of course now that he’s had it, he’s immune. Groan…
B) 75% of people we know / in our social circle have coronavirus. Our friends mother passed away yesterday. Locally (north london) cases are steadily rising.
C) our kids go back to school today and Mrs K has costocondritus so while she’s taking tablets to fix chest issues that its max avoidance but what can you do with the kids at school?
D) Our youngest 32yo cousin and recent mother of two who’s been having parties at home all they way through the pandemic and posting it all on Instagram, put her Friday night activity up yesterday. A small, loud dingy club with everyone shoulder to shoulder and visibly sweating during the drinking of many shots. Jesus….
Maybe it’s me, but we’ve little hope of containing this have we? On the plus side, at least we can put the cushions back on the garden furniture for three days.
Back in school, mitigation is a few open windows, all meetings face to face, full staff meetings all together, assemblies for kids. Lateral flow testing has caught quite a few cases which is good but suggests a lot more around given its accuracy.
Sorry for the slight hijack. @Kryrton57. Have you seen this stuff about Costochondritis. Game changer for me.
https://www.bodystance.co.nz/en/costochondritis/
Though I have Tietzes not Costco. Bob and Brad have a bit about it on their YouTube channel too.
Comparing what's happened on the French mainland with what's happening in Martinique I feel vaccination came just in time for Europe. Moderate lockdowns got us through the early variants and most people were vaccinated by the time Delta arrived. A mixture of luck, judgement, a vaccin, some masks and fresh air have kept things manageable.
75% of people we know / in our social circle have coronavirus
Oooft!. Bloody high numbers up here, I don't know anyone who is positive at present.
Speaking of which, early days but it looks like the rise of positive cases are slowing here, after the massive rise post 'vertical drinking' and schools starting back. Fingers crossed.
If you want a good sweary shout at the radio then LBC has allowed that ****ing gobshite majid noballs nawazz to speak utter bollocks about the virus,
D) Our youngest 32yo cousin and recent mother of two who’s been having parties at home all they way through the pandemic and posting it all on Instagram, put her Friday night activity up yesterday. A small, loud dingy club with everyone shoulder to shoulder and visibly sweating during the drinking of many shots. Jesus…..
I mean the first bit parties during lockdown is just stupid had a similar situation with a guy I used to work with parties on IG all the way through lockdown with a partner who is a nurse go figure. The last part depending on how you feel morally, ethically and how much risk you want to take she hasn't really done anything wrong so not a lot you can say really... I think any as clubs are open these days right?
A small, loud dingy club with everyone shoulder to shoulder and visibly sweating during the drinking of many shots. Jesus…..
That bit is a government-approved activity, supported by 'good old British common sense'.
If you go to a club or something I think you have made a clear decision to accept the risk and I hold a be-it-on-your-own-neck attitude.
Stuff like public transport is different, where probably only 1 in 50 people is wearing a face covering, and you have the guards tramping up and down the carriage breathing in your face while they check tickets. I'm surprised that it's not mandated by Northern Rail or LNER that they have to wear them.
If you don't wear a face covering on a tube, or a bus, or a train, you're just a parasite on society.
Staff on the trains I’ve been on have all been masked (some have even been double masked, presumably to try and mitigate against most passengers not wearing masks). They have to go home after a shift having been exposed to hundreds of people in a confined space after all. Not mandating masks in shops for customers, and on public transport for passengers, at this point, still feels like a miss-step.
I feel so sorry for staff in shops and on the trains - their companies are clearly requesting masks be worn, but it seems virtually no-one can be bothered to undergo the slightest inconvenience to protect them and others.
^^ I agree.
Mask wearing is down to about 1 in 10 I would think around here in the shops.
Noticeably, as throughout the pandemic, more women than men are wearing them. A better empathy for others imo.
If I worked in shop or on public transport I would take it as a massive "**** you" from the general public personally.
I had an 'encounter' with some anti-maskers at the weekend. A middle aged man much like myself, and I'd assume a daughter and a friend. In the nearby Tesco Express and none wearing masks.
One of the kids (I'd say maybe 18yo or so) very pointedly and loudly at the checkout says to her Dad or friend using the next one, I assume aimed at me, why are people still wearing those stupid masks.
I was very tempted to answer that I'd just finished my quarantine after having CV19 and so I'm wearing it to protect others just in case I'm still contagious, but opted to avoid engaging.
As we walked out they were climbing into a Range Rover parked right outside the door in the disabled spot.
I drew my own conclusions.
Observation (rather than data) but it defientely feels like it's significantly worse in Leicestershire schools than the end of last term.
They have been back for just over a week and youngest has had 2 emails about a Close Contact. Enhanced LFT testing advised (but not mandated), we're doing tests daily for him.
The "mums whatsapp" groups are awash with positive test results.
This doesn't feel like it's sustainable.
