Isn’t herd immunity in the normal sense impossible anyway?
If CV19 can be caught over and over that will never happen.
In the black and white sense, yes. The government are trying a sort of rolling herd immunity in the hope that eventually covid-19 will run out of steam and become another relatively harmless background cold-type virus.
I fear this is irresponsible given our supposed head start on vaccines and the likelihood of incubating a worse variant whilst doing so. A few basic measures that are not onerous should be kept in place. But this government's horizon for worrying is the next day's headlines. They know their target audience has the memory, IQ and attention span of a goldfish. And they are right.
Variants are more likely to come from places where the virus is even more active than the UK, and will be imported. Another thing where the UK used to be a productive exporter and is now an importer. 😉
Not necessarily in the case of vaccine-resistance rather than transmissibility.
Keeping a large amount of virus circulating with a partly vaccinated population is extremely unwise IMO.
Thanks @Tired, good to see some figures behind this third wave and it's severity (or relative lack of).
Thanks to @thejonv too, that's also interesting about the growth.
Now to work out when then will peak....
also interesting from the BBC website today, the Scottish case rate is increasing much faster - doubling every week to 10 days approximately. I guess related to schools going back earlier, be interesting to see what the Scottish case -> death rate multiplier does in the next couple of weeks. The Scottish rates are low (ca 6 deaths per day average) so hard to really say what that rate is currently, a few extra moves the bar quite a bit, but assuming the cases are increasing mainly in school age kids then presumably the multiplier rate will decrease.
And my colleague who went to Cornwall last week is waiting on a PCR result....
When the Euros/"freedom day" case increase became apparent, multiple people on this thread were predicting end of August as a return to restrictions/tightening of restrictions.
You haven't got long left, or is there a BoJo press conference tonight?
There is zero chance of increased "restrictions" until schools in England have been back for more than a few weeks. Even then, I fully expect the government to be telling parents and teachers that they're not "doing enough", rather than seeing any mandated society wide changes (even if they are required).
Nothing will officially change or be mandated until October half term, we like to have to deal with big crises, not nip them in the bud at an nearly stage.
Nothing will officially change or be mandated until
October half terma significant enough proportion of the public are screaming for it
Government mandated 'early enough to actually prevent anything' measures are now politically impossible for Brilliant Brexity British Bulldog Boris since he declared the pandemic over and started a whispering campaign against any cautionary voices. Like the publicity whore/cretin he is, he will regard any reintroduction of emergency measures as a personal problem. We're handcuffed to this fraud and his desire to be regarded as a latter-day Churchill now.
When the Euros/”freedom day” case increase became apparent, multiple people on this thread were predicting end of August as a return to restrictions/tightening of restrictions.
As I said in my earlier post, the Euro increase does seem to have been an absolute pimple on the general tracking of the daily new cases, but you can still see the trend beyond that and it is still increasing, and deaths are increasing with it.
Why the Euro cases blip didn't result in a deaths blip I can't answer but would speculate that the demographic of that cases blip is among the least susceptible. But that is a guess.
What's the takeaway message - from me it's that when new data becomes available I'm perfectly prepared to modify my understanding. I wonder if others / the Gov will do the same, or just plough on with fingers in ears?
To post some slightly more positive news.....my mum is responding really well to her treatments (anti biotic and blood thinners) and is hopefully coming home tomorrow afternoon.
Looks like quite a long road to full recovery, and she's missed out on her month long summer trip to Cornwall that she's been doing for the past 20 years (would've been the first one as a grandma for her this year so she was mega excited) but it'll still be there in years to come.
I really wish that my girlfriends grandparents would develop a bit more caution....they're both back to their pre Covid behaviours of going out every day with their friends, which is obviously a lovely way to spend a retirement, but given that they both have underlying longterm health issues, it just seems an incredible risk. We're hoping to get married in 2023 and they raised my girlfriend along with her mum, so them not being there to see her get married is a fairly awful thought 🙁
Sounds like good news about you mum. Let her know it was chaos in Cornwall this summer, and it'll be twice as good next year.
Good news for you Tom. TBF probably best she's given Cornwall a body swerve this year. Numbers in the sw are as bad as Scotland and NI. 😬
Good news for you Tom. TBF probably best she’s given Cornwall a body swerve this year. Numbers in the sw are as bad as Scotland and NI.
Definitely all of this!
Good news Tom.
In other news the Government is being criticised appropriately about being too casual for the school returns process, but our sons secondary school has emailed with a list of similar precautions prior to the school hols, the exception being that the will now move around to different classrooms. I’m please to see this, anyone else’s school taking it into their own hands?
I’m please to see this, anyone else’s school taking it into their own hands?
Yep, daughters secondary doing the same. To be fair, both her school and the 6th form college the eldest was at went above and beyond the government guidance last year, and although there were a lot of kids isolating at times, there were very few kids testing positive, even in the run up to the summer term, and anecdotally, the majority of those who our kids know who did test positive admitted it was more than likely they caught it outside of school, ignoring guidance.
Not dismissing the fantastic efforts of all school staff, but the reports I heard in the variation between the efforts of schools and the outcomes in terms of infection rates was eye opening last year. There was a lot of good practice not being shared.
the reports I heard in the variation between the efforts of schools and the outcomes in terms of infection rates was eye opening last year.
What reports were these?
As I said in my earlier post, the Euro increase does seem to have been an absolute pimple on the general tracking of the daily new cases, but you can still see the trend beyond that and it is still increasing, and deaths are increasing with it.
We had various modellers predicting 100K cases a day by the end of August, so it's obviously good news that the sudden rise which prompted that was short-lived. I think everyone is waiting to see what happens from mid-September onwards when kids are mixing before trying to forecast the shape of the curve for the autumn and winter.
Scotland is giving us a hint, with doubling time on new cases decreasing substantially.
I had to read that twice theotherjonv, thought I'd missed a recent improvement for a moment there! Yes, cases in Scotland just seem to be shooting up at present, hopefully they top-out soon.
Related to that, I was just thinking about the vaccine estimates TiRed quoted, below. Although they are great, with case rate now more than twice the previous peak, for a vaccinated individual the risk of needing to be admitted to hospital is now actually higher than it was previously. Or am I misinterpreting the figures ?!
I have smaller plots for the nations. they all show the same thing. 65% efficacy for cases to admissions and about 80% lower deaths!
Nothing will officially change or be mandated until October half term, we like to have to deal with big crises, not nip them in the bud at an nearly stage.
No requirement for close contact isolation.
No requirement for close contact testing.
No requirement for asymptomatic testing.
We're doing our best to avoid finding any problems until hospital admissions and deaths.
This seems like encouraging news on the long covid front
BBC News - Coronavirus vaccines cut risk of long Covid, study finds
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58410354
This made me smile too, which makes me a bad person I think
BBC News - Joe Rogan: Popular US podcast host says he has Covid-19 but is 'feeling great'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58416801
Back on a train to go for an ultrasound. Standing room only. Not a single other person on the train wearing a mask. Perfect preparation for the new school term. Strap in, the next eight weeks could get quite bumpy in England…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58418767
From the Scotland thread, the increase in cases among 15-19 year olds, coinciding with the returns to school seems very coincidental.....
I mean - maybe they don't get it 'at school' but on the bus to and from school, or outside the school gate at closing time, but to persist that schools have no role in this to me degrades the trust
BBC News – Coronavirus vaccines cut risk of long Covid, study finds
The bullshit spreaders always have an answer. It might not be a very intelligent answer, but hey…
https://twitter.com/thefreds/status/1433356023734091777?s=21
My eldest 2 kids started school this morning. I only saw one, maybe two, other parents wearing a mask in the playground. Fingers crossed this year does not repeat last year. I'm hopeful the vaccines, with boosters, will work but it surprised me that so few parents were masked up.
Masks offer basically zero benefit outdoors so I'd not take that as an indicator of anything.
Yes, wearing a mask for drop-off outside school as the wind whips past feels fairly redundant. I can only imagine a benefit if there is a really crowded scrum of parents and kids.
but to persist that schools have no role in this to me degrades the trust
I don't think anyone is persisting in that argument are they? In fact Sturgeon said they thought it could be the reason for the recent increase.
Eh? Did you read the article I linked? Even the headline?
Covid: Schools aren't infection hubs, says public health boss
Yes; "schools aren't infection hubs". It's all spin and semantics, but they aren't saying that schools don't play a role.
In fact in the same article another gov adviser states "with most adults vaccinated, schools were likely to be a greater part of the problem".
The bullshit spreaders always have an answer. It might not be a very intelligent answer, but hey…
https://twitter.com/thefreds/status/1433356023734091777?s=21
That Twitter post was for shits and giggles right? Or clicks?
A really big scrum of parents dropping their 4 year old for first day at school, and all crowding around the door you mean?
I know masks make little difference outside, but we all also know that a lot of people still don't realise this or that masks are to protect others, as evidenced by the number of people we have seen wearing masks in these situations until very recently. I'm pretty sure the change isn't down to improved understanding, but is actually a sign of a LACK of understanding (IE, that the vaccinated can still catch and spread)
Masks offer basically zero benefit outdoors
Some of the superspreader events have been outdoors. The Cornwall festival resulted in 5000 infections and it's feared may be the source of a new Delta variant. The festival was no masks.
Some of the superspreader events have been outdoors. The Cornwall festival resulted in 5000 infections and it’s feared may be the source of a new Delta variant. The festival was no masks.
Legally compelled mask wearing indoors in Scotland seems to have made very little difference to transmission compared to England. Close contacts irrespective of mask usage appears to be unsurprisingly what drives infections.
It’s all spin and semantics, but they aren’t saying that schools don’t play a role.
Which is my point, maybe not made well,
Part of being a popular scientist (one who delivers science to the populace, not one that everyone likes*) is that they have to communicate clearly. If the response is 'that isn't exactly what i said and it's your problem you've interpreted it wrong' then something's gone wrong.
* I'd argue that we need unpopular scientists, ones that tell us the truth warts and all!
Legally compelled mask wearing indoors in Scotland seems to have made very little difference to transmission compared to England.
Not sure how you separate out the effects of mask wearing from the effects of different term dates. Or how your account for the fact that England and Scotland are deeply intertwined, so the effects of behaviour doesn’t magically stop at the border.
On a lighter note, Matty Hancock's fundraising for his London Marathon is going swimmingly. I wonder what the hospice thinks about the extra money they're getting from people lobbing abuse at him?
^some of those comments reinforce the notion that nobody who would be any good at politics would be stupid enough to go near it.
I scrolled back thorugh a few and found it funny that the only comment defending him was the only one with no donation.
I haven't provided the links s some people don't like them, but some interesting news is being posted on popular sites about waning vaccination protection and back-to-school coinciding, with a currently predicted peak of 100k-150k cases by the ended of September causing a strain on the NHS. Most are stopping short of suggesting measures. but one at least has stated "The people of the UK have enjoyed a freedom over the Summer not enjoyed by many in Europe" or words to that effect.
I guess we should be grateful to gov.uk then eh, and I'd better cancel the October half term holiday to Menorca whilst I can...
I guess we should be grateful to gov.uk then eh, and I’d better cancel the October half term holiday to Menorca whilst I can…
My other half's parents just kicked their October cruise into 2023. It's pretty obvious that things are going to be more than a bit bumpy in the UK this autumn. I'd love to book a holiday for half term, but it feels more than a little optimistic to do so. Still, government ministers got their long foreign holidays this summer, so that's all that matters really.
Some of the superspreader events have been outdoors.
Were they purely outdoors or did they have indoor pinch points in terms of beer tents and so on and heavy use of public transport to get there.
Some of the superspreader events have been outdoors. The Cornwall festival resulted in 5000 infections and it’s feared may be the source of a new Delta variant. The festival was no masks
there are outdoor festivals sitting on a blanket nodding along to coldplay etc, and then there is the den of inquity that is boardmasters...its probably the source of a new variant of chlamydia too.
I'd never heard of boardmasters before this year.
then there is the den of inquity that is boardmasters
How do I get tickets?
morecashthandash : This made me smile too, which makes me a bad person I think
BBC News – Joe Rogan: Popular US podcast host says he has Covid-19 but is ‘feeling great’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58416801/blockquote >Have to admit I had a good laugh at Joe "shock protein" rogan has covid, after all the shit he's spouted over the previous 18 months through his podcasts regarding covid, recently with his fav crank cure pedlar Bret Weinstein so he deserves all the abuse he gets
