Indeed scotroutes - and we are work are now having to consider it for our work (in schools..).
it doesn’t seem wise to wait until we can see either of them happening
Wait and see, and act only when the public are calling for action, when it is already too late to do so with minimal interventions, has “worked” for the government so far. Why expect them to shift to a forward planning and timely intervention strategy now?
Bollocks. It’s not all the doing of the politicians and the media. Step away from STW and the majority of folk just want to get on with things. They’ll accept a much higher death rate than we’re currently experiencing.
Absolutely.
Aye, spot on, most folks don't even give the death rates a second glance now.
The thought that we can endure hundreds of Covid-19 deaths per day without significantly worsening other outcomes in our health system seems somewhat naive to me.
Step away from STW and the majority of folk just want to get on with things.
I think most on here also want to but are balancing that against what the cost could be. I'd love this to be over, I don't think we're there yet.
They’ll accept a much higher death rate than we’re currently experiencing.
I don't know about 'much' higher. I think it's seen as tolerable currently partly because it's now 'boring' but also because they are low, at 500 per week. 12,000 die every week anyway in the UK.
With cases increasing and likely to increase further, and a waning immunity, that number can and will increase and at some point it does start to become relevant again. The trouble with exponential growth is that by the time people start to think it's got too high, you're already committed to further increases and powerless to prevent them. At which point the public will be interested again.
Or indeed sooner if it affects you rather than being a statistic in the news.
I think most on here also want to but are balancing that against what the cost could be. I’d love this to be over, I don’t think we’re there yet.
+1
I don’t know about ‘much’ higher. I think it’s seen as tolerable currently partly because it’s now ‘boring’ but also because they are low, at 500 per week. 12,000 die every week anyway in the UK.
Quite. If only folk would just get Covid and die instead of filling up the NHS beds as an interim step...
Step away from STW and the majority of folk just want to get on with things.
This is definitely a thing, but as a fairly typical STWer, working from home, riding my bike in the countryside, and generally living a sheltered existence, I'm genuinely curious, what does 'getting on with it' mean?
Yes, business isn't great for a lot of people, but that's not entirely down to the government, people just aren't too comfortable with mingling.
Holidays abroad are a bit difficult, but it's an opportunity to get creative and do something different.
Schools and childcare unpredictable. Perfectly valid concern.
Aside from that though, what can we not do that we've been able to in the past? Restrictions were lifted weeks ago. I'm not sure what it is we're unable to 'get on with'?
teachers don’t seem to be able to do this, the holier than thou attitiude is incredible.
No but in this situation for many reasons it's not as black+white as you make out.
And for the most part teaching boiled down to babysitting for key workers and care duties and monitoring for the vulnerable ( unfit parents/abuse /violence and not getting fed )
Aside from that though, what can we not do that we’ve been able to in the past? Restrictions were lifted weeks ago. I’m not sure what it is we’re unable to ‘get on with’?
I think a lot of folk haven't figured it out yet - whingerz gonna whinge.
Can't believe we're fighting the pointless teacher battles again. A few bad apples being used to dismiss fantastic efforts made by the majority of teachers. As happened with a lot of public sector and unsung key workers in the last 18 months
Quite. And how have they been rewarded?
the vitriol from parents the nursery provider company my wife works for receives is off the the charts nasty if they have to close a nursery due to covid (which currently is a lot) Still getting "it's no worse than flu" crap "We're all Vaccinated now so what's the problem". I also find the acceptable deaths "thing" horrible... having to fight for some one's life for 2 weeks while dressed in a space suit is not acceptable but hey ho out of sight out of mind.
But Gav's got his fingers in his ears and is shouting lalalalala
I’d love this to be over, I don’t think we’re there yet.
Define 'over'
Because I'm pretty sure those scientisty folk said it won't ever be but as you've said that a couple of times now you must know something they don't.
Over = no need for restrictions at all.
People are fundamentally selfish (not all) my other half often says "money isn't important" what she actually means is "as long as all the bills are paid, food in the cupboard, fuel in the cars, wine in the fridge excess money is not important"
So here we are as a society "lifestyle is not important" which actually means " as long as i can shop, go to the pub, go to spain all other lifestyle is not important"
This is no country to live in if you are old poor or frail.
My respone to the above is usually "money isn't important until there's non left"
This can be applied to a lot of folks in the UK in respect to living with Covid.
Pretty strong opinion piece on the CNN site
Make the unvaccinated pay
My sense of frustration, watching the case numbers climb again, has been growing that we (UK) could have been in a much better place now had vacine uptake hit 90-95% across the whole eligible population.
Instead we face what is likely another very disrupted educational term, health service staff facing horrendous work loads and stress, yet the solution is sat there, in little bottles, in the deep freeze.
I've read the "risky events" thread with interest, and accept we will have to learn to live with it, but prevalance could, should have been way lower, and life actaully more normal for more people if it wasn't for the selfish / stupid / lazy unvaxxed.
Dear Mrs B is in district nursing, and we have just learnt a colleague has tested +ve on LFT. Mrs avoids the office (at local doctors practices) as much as possible, working out of her car, PPE on / off 15-20 times per shift, parked up in laybys typing up patient visit records. Anyway, fingers crossed, as campervan holiday planned starting next weekend.
That CNN article is factually incorrect. Covid is not a disease of the unvaccinated and there are studies to show viral loads in vaccinated Covid cases are just as high as in unvaccinated. Unfortunately Covid can be caught and transmitted by double vaccinated people as Israel is clearly demonstrating.
What vaccination avoids is serious illness in the majority of vaccinated people thus reducing the pressure on hospital beds which means we don't have to lockdown because queues of ambulances start forming at hospitals.
France does data pretty well:
In this area (Pyrénées Atlantique) the vaccination rate is 87% of adults and 60% of 12-18s, that's the highest in France, but the incidence is only just under average for the country. Where the benefit of vaccination is seen is in the low level of entries into intensive care relative to incidence. Vaccination doesn't stop people getting Covid, it keeps most of them out of hospital.
Vaccinating 90-95% of the eligible population was something that was never going to be achieved without making it compulsory,there was always going to be a % of the population who wouldn't be vaccinated for whatever reason,what does "more normal" even mean? I've been vaccinated but I don't won't to live in a country where we don't have a choice over what we have injected into us,it's a supposedly free country you might not be happy about someone not being vaccinated but it's their choice and ultimately I think we have to respect that choice
Free not to get vaccinated fine, but I'm quite happy with excluding people two or three times more likely to get and thus transmit the virus and then 10 times more likely to end up in hospital from places and events that aren't providing essential services. You're free to refuse a vaccine but your not free to go to a place where you're likely to catch the virus and then take a hospital bed becoming part of the problem.
it’s a supposedly free country you might not be happy about someone not being vaccinated but it’s their choice and ultimately I think we have to respect that choice
We already do with smoking,drinking and bad health lifestyle choices tbh
If the vaccination totally cut out transmission I think it would be a different story.
Edukator ++
That's a tough one.
I'm absolutely not in favour of refusing treatment for people with Covid because they haven't been vaccinated, that's not how a civilised country behaves. And we don't do it for the overweight, for smokers, or indeed for middle aged MTBers that crash their bikes. However, I can see a justification for eg: stopping people going to venues if they haven't been vaxxed - not because the vaxx prevents transmission (increasingly we understand that it might reduce but won't stop) - but because they then are more likely to catch and have a serious case if they haven't been vaxxed.
But then they'll say that it's a risk they're prepared to accept. And we counter that it's not just you, but you'll be taking a hospital or ITU bed away from someone else, and costing the NHS / taxpayer money, etc....... But who are you taking that bed from? An overweight smoker, or a MTBer that's crashed their bike, or...... and then we argue round in circles with no answer.
@theotherjonv The unvaxxed will be where the virus does its mutating. So yes deny them entrance to events on the basis of "you want a social life, join with society".
They’ll accept a much higher death rate than we’re currently experiencing.
As long as it's not them!
The unvaxxed will be where the virus does its mutating
My understanding - is that the virus can still infect the vaccinated (fact, I'm living proof) but then as it tries to replicate in 'me' is just as capable of mutating as it does.
[edit - OK not just as, but I think still capable. So I agree with you, to an extent]
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/17/unvaccinated-coronavirus-covid-variants-us
They’ll accept a much higher death rate than we’re currently experiencing.
we're currently 2/3rds the way there if reports are to be believed (50,000 "acceptable" deaths per year before restrictions are reintroduced)
Vaccination doesn’t stop people getting Covid, it keeps most of them out of hospital.
I can't believe this is still having to be repeated
The unvaxxed will be where the virus does its mutating.
Any evidence for that? Maybe the virus may have to mutate to infect a vaccinated person and be transmissible?
There will be maybe 5% of the population who probably can't get vaccinated for valid medical reasons - are we going to discriminate against them getting in to venues? Those voluntarily unvaccinated are either ignorant or assholes, but not sure a ban on those without vaccines is right.
Jnrs PCR tests has come back positive - no surprise, lost smell, tired, achey, bit of a cough etc. The rest of us are awaiting results, but still symptom free and negative on LFTs, which is weird, as we were in constant contact with each other from the point he was probably infected to the day he tested positive, and we haven't been able to completely avoid each other since then.
App is telling him to isolate for 10 days from the day he took the PCR test, but advice is to isolate for 10 days from first symptoms? Anyone know which is "correct"?
Ignore the timing on the app. That goes from test date and is advisory, the legal obligation is from onset of symptoms, or test date if asymptomatic. Then at the other end if you have specific symptoms (check Gov.uk) your isolation does not end....you should stay isolating until they disappear.
Re you / the family getting it. It's not inevitable; both my kids had it, they gave to me, neither they nor I have managed to pass to my wife.
Turns out the most rabidly anti-vax, COVID is a hoax, family I know are all laid up in bed with a mystery fever that is 100% not COVID….
the unvaxxed will be where the virus does its mutating
Actually, it is more likely to be the waning vaccinated, who become infected or reinfected and whose immune response and antibody repertoire cannot control the virus but still exert selection suboptimal pressure. This is more akin to treatment-emergent resistance in HIV. Studies of the monoclonal antibodies (bamlanivimab) have shown treatment emergent resistance is very common. Interestingly, non-treatment emergent resistance is also noted for some of the key epitopes due to immune selection.
Low absolute numbers mean lower numbers of hosts and less likely escape. It is simply a numbers game.
There will be maybe 5% of the population who probably can’t get vaccinated for valid medical reasons – are we going to discriminate against them getting in to venues?
No. It’s a complete red herring. That isn’t what happened in any other country that restricted who could use which spaces.
It is simply a numbers game.
One we look intent on, er, winning here in the UK.
Re you / the family getting it. It’s not inevitable; both my kids had it, they gave to me, neither they nor I have managed to pass to my wife.
This confused me - pretty sure people in the know on here were saying intra-family transmission was almost guaranteed with Delta, but we know two families where only one person tested positive, and so far MrsMC and LittleMissMC have both had negative results today - still awaiting mine.
My thoughts were more along the lines of a large un-vaxxed population will provide the virus with a safe haven whilst evolution does it's best (worst) to overcome the protections that the rest of us have from being vaccinated. Not enough espresso before committing to writing.
One we look intent on, er, winning here in the UK.
For various values of winning. Sorry. Mathematician’s joke. I imagine the next real variant of concern will be imported. See delta.
Incidentally the waning vaccine protection is entirely predictable from the duration of antibodies. They halve every 50 days (two months) so the proportion losing protection doubles over the same. Fortunately you need a few more doublings before you lose protection from serious disease (as opposed to symptoms). But come next spring… I’ll be taking any booster offered.
(50,000 “acceptable” deaths per year before restrictions are reintroduced
So, perhaps a few weeks after schools go back, plus another two weeks of dithering, so mid October?
We're at 70 odd per day now, we're only one doubling away. I reckon mid to late Sept and we're at that 1000 per week potentially.
Actually I correct myself. I had 70-odd in my mind but that is England. UK is already 100+, so 700+ per week. It'll be 1000 a week very soon, looking at the infection rate.
And we're in summer, socialising outside, etc
So, perhaps a few weeks after schools go back, plus another two weeks of dithering, so mid October?
Unfortunately, our politicians have turned the prospect of even the mildest sort of restrictions into a political winning/losing issue, rather than a public health one, so we can expect another month of ****ing around and blustering on top of your timescale.
Unfortunately, our politicians have turned the prospect of even the mildest sort of restrictions into a political winning/losing issue, rather than a public health one
A very accurate summing up
And we counter that it’s not just you, but you’ll be taking a hospital or ITU bed away from someone else, and costing the NHS / taxpayer money, etc……. But who are you taking that bed from?
You're taking that bed from someone who now can't have a routine operation in case something goes wrong and they need an ICU bed. That's who.
The unvaxxed will be where the virus does its mutating. So yes deny them entrance to events on the basis of “you want a social life, join with society”.
You can't create a two tier society its just wrong. There needs to be a system in place where if you cant/wont have the jab you need to take a test before attending mass events (similar to going football these days). You can't say to someone sorry no tesco visit for you until you have a jab. Society already has enough issues with social mobility, class and privilege so why add more boundaries.
Really? The French have. Appears to be very successful.
Note I am not saying that I am in favour of it just that saying you can't do it is demonstrably inaccurate.
Vaccinating 90-95% of the eligible population was something that was never going to be achieved without making it compulsory,
Thing is, overall today we're 88.3% of 16+ (first dose, fair assunption most go for #2), problem being uneven distribution along age-group lines. Gov dashboard has a nice heat map of vaxxed aged groups if you select nations>England at the top.
I would not argue for compulsory TBF, it is, just about still a free oountry, but a bigger stick maybe, with the carrot of venue / event access.
Entry on test results I'm somewhat wary of, far too easily faked or inored if you're of the covid hoax mindset, and shelled out £££ for event tickets. We shall see what ths weekend's festivals and holiday events do to the figures.
I find myself agreeing with theotherjonv posts regularly.
joepud
Full MemberYou can’t say to someone sorry no tesco visit for you until you have a jab.
Why not? For the "can't"s then sure. But for the wont's? When they go out in the world they endanger other people, they're causing more strain on the NHS. The problem is that there are consequences for their actions, but not for them, it's other people that will pay the price. Very easy to say no when all it does is hurt other people you'll never meet. So why not have them face some consequences?
