Conclusions
As for the vast majority of human viruses, the most parsimonious explanation for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic event. The documented epidemiological history of the virus is comparable to previous animal market-associated outbreaks of coronaviruseswith a simple route for human exposure. The contact tracing of SARS-CoV-2 to markets in Wuhan exhibits striking similarities to the early spread of SARS-CoV to markets in Guangdong, where humans infected early in the epidemic lived near or worked in animal markets. Zoonotic spillover by definition selects for viruses able to infect humans. The laboratory escapes documented to date This document is copyright of the authors. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.have almost exclusively involved viruses brought into laboratories specifically because of their known human infectivity.There is currently no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin. There is no evidence that any early cases had any connection to the WIV, in contrast to the clear epidemiological links to animal markets in Wuhan, nor evidence that the WIV possessed or worked on a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 prior to the pandemic. The suspicion that SARS-CoV-2 might have a laboratory origin stems from the coincidence that it was first detected in a city that houses a major virological laboratory that studies coronaviruses. Wuhan is the largest city in central China with multiple animal markets and is a major hub for travel and commerce, well connected to other areas both within China and internationally. The link to Wuhan therefore more likely reflects the fact that pathogens often require heavily populated areas to become established20.We contend that there is substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin for SARS-CoV-2. While the possibility ofa laboratory accident cannot be entirely dismissed, and may be near impossible to falsify, this conduit for emergence is highly unlikely relative to the numerous and repeated human-animal contacts that occur routinely in the wildlife trade. Failure to comprehensively investigate the zoonotic origin through collaborative and carefully coordinated studies would leave the world vulnerable to future pandemics arising from the same human activities that have repeatedly put us on a collision course with novel viruses.
apologies if it's already been posted
kelvin
Full MemberThat is depressing. It was going so well.
Inevitable though really. We're being told it's safe, it's time to reopen, freeeedom! Back to normal. Of course people will think "well if it's safe and if the PM says we can get back to normal then I don't need a vaccine". Just once again a direct result of government messaging.
Second jab received yesterday morning. Very sore arm but nothing else. However, I have a raging cough, but no other symptoms at all. Best take another test.
I've been staying away from this thread recently and trying not to take notice of the numbers in the news, but it's hard to be positive again. Who would have thought almost 18 months since it all began here people like me would be worrying at this stage of the pandemic.
Hope everyone is having a great weekend.
I’m mostly worried about children- seems like there is more cases of young kids getting long covid. This will now go through the roof. Childhoods destroyed and who knows what longer term problems.
I find it amazing I still have capacity to despise the tories even more but it seems bottomless
Looks like half the country consists of bed wetting sofa hiders (I wonder which 50% that would be, hmm... 🤔).
To me this is the argument:
The World Health Organization (WHO) is becoming increasingly vocal about the dangers of the government’s plans. While not referring to the prime minister by name, Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s Covid-19 technical lead, said that allowing the disease to spread and infect others “by not implementing consistently proven actions that prevent infections, reduce spread, prevent disease and save lives is immoral, unethical and non-scientific”.
I’m not sure what relevance morality, ethics, and science have to U.K. politics these days. It’s not like our track record on basing decisions on the balance of evidence is a national strong point is it….
Even when the science bit did play a role, it was really as much a political calculation.
Anyway, this seems on the money
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Stolen from Twitter
That guardian article is very interesting in that most of the population do not want the level and speed of removal of restrictions. Usually tories are very good at reading / manipulating the public mood but on this one they have it so wrong. U turn a coming or are they really that deaf to the public / so wedded to their ideology that not only will they kill people but also lose the public!
I think Boris is so terrified of his backbenchers that he will just unlock and screw the rest of us.
In some ways I hope so because that will screw the tories in future elections
I think Boris is so terrified of his backbenchers and corporate landlord donors that he will just unlock and screw the rest of us.
FTFY etc
I'm highly amused by the idea that IDS trusts the common sense of the little people when he spent years trying to change the benefits system to alter their behaviour.
From the Guardian piece…
plans to end most Covid restrictions on 19 July – including the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport and in hospitals
Can that be right? The hospitals part?
as doctors and other NHS workers demanded that mask-wearing continue in hospitals
How can there be an argument about mask wearing in hospitals at this point?
Of course people will think “well if it’s safe and if the PM says we can get back to normal then I don’t need a vaccine”.
It’s not a consequence I was expecting, but it does makes complete sense, doesn’t it. Will this free up Pfizer for teenagers? What’s today’s excuse for denying them access to the vaccine at a time we seem to have policy designed to deliberately infect them so that the rest of us can get our “freedoms” back?
Sounds like England are now doing the same (seen on guardian live feed headline but not read post)
Reading the post it appears that the restrictions will be lifted but "comonsense" means we should still wear masks!
Ministers have also been contacted by unions representing shop workers about the threat to their health from the end of mask-wearing rules, with concerns that key workers, often in low-paying jobs, will be the ones placed at greatest risk.
Is it not going to be a consequence of removal of mask wearing will result in shop, etc., closures (funnily enough it’s the staff at risk from multiple potential exposures rather than costumers) meaning that you’re free to go in to shops maskless but they’ll all be shut? Another pyrrhic ‘victory’... or else shops will have to mandate masks for entry in order to remain open?
Here’s hoping that Scotland retains masks (after all Ms Sturgeons political capital with my demographic is that she is not Johnson...)
I’m pretty sure that in healthcare settings that face coverings remain a requirement @kelvin.
But just heard a very confused interview from Nadim Zahawi on Andrew Marr about face coverings saying that they are now strongly recommend people wear them indoors and on public transport.
Given I’ve spent all week discussing the messaging about face coverings with DfT on our local buses and trams this is completely at odds to what the messaging being put forward which was at best neutral and down to personal choice. Thankfully we’ve gone further with support of our Mayor and recommended people continue to wear face coverings.
@kelvin: I think it’s just badly worded. Don’t recall hospitals going maskless. More of a NHS preemptive strike so as they can’t remove the requirement?
Hospitals will need to carry out risk assessments (as will other premises) and to my knowledge the vectors for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 have not altered. So the existing RA’s requirements remain unaltered... plus, in hospitals, in certain cases, they are classified as PPE.
Here’s hoping that Scotland retains masks (after all Ms Sturgeons political capital with my demographic is that she is not Johnson…)
I have confidence that Sturgeon is at least attempting to make the right decisions for the right reasons. will she get it 100% right? No. But she will be trying to do the right thing.
Hope so.
4 wards in Glasgow royal had no RNs at all, I do agree with UKgov stance on isolations for healthcare staff who've been vaccinated. Some nurses etc no doubt taking the piss, but after the last year + who would blame them.
Mrs done 50 hours this week, all under mask, in an old building with no Aircon and too many windows, cos the ward they used to be in is still a covid ward.
Interesting article on Immunity Debt in NZ
Oh, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary and Elgin’s Dr Grays are now also ‘Code Black’ as per Raigmore....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-57756384
Putting on my tinfoil hat for a minute, 🤪, what almighty cluster-**** (or grab) is about to be dropped that Johnson is throwing this particular (maskless) dead cat in for now?
Be interested to see what contributes most to that, hospitalisations or staffing.
With the surge in infections before we even start using common sense, are increasing numbers of NHS staff having to isolate because of infection or "close contact," bringing in another NHS crisis on top of the increasing waiting lists and a steady rise of Delta admissions?
Zahawi did seem to be confirming a u-turn on mask wearing
But if its just guidance, rather than a legal requirement, I just need dunt see how it can be enforced
immoral, unethical and non-scientific”.
Remind me again what the PM studied. He doesn't know scientific rigour just airy-fairy arts and literature.
Riding plans all cancelled today - Instead I have been spending a few Sunday hours tracing students and ringing anxious/little annoyed families. From my own limited experience the this uptick is huge.
I was on the underground with family yesterday - about 20% no masks or worn around chin.
No u-turn, just the usual semantic shift. 'Expected to wear masks' carries no legal weight - expected by whom, exactly? People who do not want to wear masks will not wear masks unless there is a legal obligation. It seems plenty of them won't wear them even then.
This just sets up poor shop and transport staff to have to argue with tossers non-stop all day.
If it can't be enforced, people like me will just continue to avoid shops and public transport until the current wave has eased significantly.
This just sets up poor shop and transport staff to have to argue with tossers non-stop all day.
If it can’t be enforced, people like me will just continue to avoid shops and public transport until the current wave has eased significantly.
Yep, they're trying to shut the stable door after the horse has bolted. Again.
No matter what they say now mask use will drop significantly over the next few weeks, only police intervention will prevent it. That's a step they will not take, the police or the government, at any point so we're pretty much set on putting everything on betting the vaccine holds back the hospitalisations, deaths and long-term effects over the winter. When the Echo or Foxtrot variants arrive we just have to hope they go the evolutionary route of being less dangerous but more infectious, if they just go more infectious and manage to bypass the vaccines better we are back to square one.
It (wearing of face coverings) on public transport was already nigh on impossible to enforce on buses and trams as drivers weren’t there to stop and argue the toss with people and even where they did question them the usual response was that they were exempt.
So most people complied because it was a good thing to do but I fear it’ll unravel very quickly and also promote conflict between passengers.
I wonder too why they settled on the Greek alphabet for variants, a quick google search indicates the Cambodian alphabet would have been a much better choice.
This mask wearing business boils my piss. It’s not a big deal to wear a mask, it doesn’t infringe on your human rights, and to not wear one marks you out as a selfish selfcentred prick
It’s exactly the folk that don’t won’t wear masks that you want to be wearing masks, as they are the ones who clearly don’t give a shit about spreading the virus and won’t have taken any other minor precautions to avoid getting or spreading it. Same folks that probably don’t bother washing their hands after taking a piss…they lack a basic level of thoughtfulness for others.
Unfortunately you just described Boris Johnson and the tory party.
A lunch time tandem ride on Friday was not a pleasant experience. Sitting at traffic lights, a woman decides to cross in no gap,right in front of us (mask around chin) while shouting across to her husband in a parked car opposite, this all into my husbands face. I ask her would she mind giving us some space. This caused mouthfuls of abuse from her and the husband. I felt there is really no hope.
However this weekend while shopping in Wales, everybody wearing a mask, all shoppers keeping distance, all shops had sanitiser and one way systems. In 'Next' a staff member was outside checking numbers of shoppers entering the shop, giving out big clear bags to put purchases in before paying, all superbly organised. I felt ashamed of what's happening in England.
What's happened to the word 'kind', what's happened to consideration and thinking of the nhs staff and others?
Cafe stop today, really busy, cyclists and families sat at the spaced out tables outside, we joined the socially distanced queue as it's one in, one out for ordering.
A crewcab pick up pulls up and five lads get out -"good ol' boys" as I described them to my ride buddy. Obviously arranged to meet up with cycling mates who had ridden there for a post Saturday night/pre football fry up.
Came and stood RIGHT behind us, masks below noses. Started showing each other pics of young ladies they were supposedly seeing, lots of loud and inappropriate comments. A few families decided they had finished and it was time to leave. All very uncomfortable.
Came to our turn to go in and order, and they all pile in behind, despite the obvious signage about one group at a time.
Unfortunately for them the guy who runs the cafe is ex Royal Navy and Glaswegian. I suspect that because they were local was the only reason he "asked" them to wait outside rather than just refused to serve them, but from the look he gave us, it was a close run thing.
I really don't get why people are getting so upset over the end of mask wearing, at the moment it's the rules we should yet despite that rates are rocketing. Mask wearing is a helpful additional measure when other strict measures are in place, at the moment though it's pissing in the wind. We are very much moving into an everyone for themselves environment, if you're going to wear a mask going forward make sure it's an FFP3, otherwise all you're doing is virtue signalling really unless everone else is. FWIW if I see mask wearing continuing inline with guidance I'll continue to wear one, if the majority stop so will I but I'll be avoiding crowded, indoor places but then I'm doing that now anyway.
I really don’t get why people are getting so upset over the end of mask wearing
Vector of transmission.
1. Particles >50 (might be 60) microns are subject to gravity and tend to fall to ‘ground’ within 1-1.5m (hence social distancing)
2. Particles <50(or 60) microns become suspended in air as aerosols. When sufficient percentage come together (lack of vent) you get a viral load.
This is an airborne transmitted disease.
Masks help limit the spread. Masks are there to limit spread to others (not the wearer).
HTH.
Rates have rocketed when adherence to the hands/face/space rule has been dropping noticeably, and especially in situations where alcohol and good times are combined, whether that is friends and families meeting up or crowds in pubs watching football. And don't get me started on stopping mask wearing in schools.
Wearing a mask, washing hands and keeping your distance are the few basic measures people can take to stop potentially spreading it to others or getting infected.
Every little helps, as they say
The disease is still spreading despite these measures, so we just all give up all the transmission mitigation measures (and get/catch covid, play that particular roulette)?
That makes perfect sense... 🤷🏼♀️?
FFP3 is PPE. It needs to be properly fitted, removed and disposed of to avoid transmission. A lot of people seem have problems with a ‘face covering’ type mask and covering their nose, don’t fancy the chances of them managing PPE!
Metalbeard I get all that, and MCTD is making my point, masks alone aren't holding back the tide of infections. I fully understand masks are there to protect others, except when the majority don't wear them, the few wont make a lot of difference. The point I was making is if you're that worried it's time to look after yourself and a simple mask won't cut it.
So if people really want rates to reduce then we need to go back to proper restrictions like in April, otherwise stop going on about mask wearing as if they are the golden bullet that stops the spread, as you pointed out yourself a lot of people struggle to wear a simple mask properly.
Putting on my tinfoil hat for a minute, 🤪, what almighty cluster-**** (or grab) is about to be dropped that Johnson is throwing this particular (maskless) dead cat in for now?
Indeed. The people are arguing or agreeing with each other about masks, and blaming those that don't wear them. So they're not talking/arguing about something else, or blaming the government.
So most people complied because it was a good thing to do but I fear it’ll unravel very quickly and also promote conflict between passengers.
If I was a hard man (like Ronnie Pickering), my weekly shop would look like one of those Russian professional slapping contests.
masks alone aren’t holding back the tide of infections
Mask wearing in schools ended. Cases in school age kids shot up a little bit later. Cases in other ages groups shot up some time after that. Signalling about the end of mask wearing for adults by politicians and press alike will result in cases shooting up well before 19th July, behaviour has already been modified by the messaging.
What’s happened to the word ‘kind’, what’s happened to consideration and thinking of the nhs staff and others?
It's one of the things I've hoped would stay after this is all over: respecting others more and appreciating the tough jobs some people do for little reward. Sadly the lessons of what key workers actually do and how good it feels to be part of a society that is kind to everyone have been forgotten the second the masses had a sniff of a foreign holiday.
I can't say I'm surprised it's going that way but that doesn't stop it being disappointing.
Mask wearing in schools ended
Not in Lancashire it hasn't, cases have gone through the roof.
