I read somewhere that the R value for the Delta variant was reckoned to be around 7 😳
One infected person went to a child's birthday party over here.... resulted in all 42 other attendees of the party becoming infected.
I would be amazed if it was a low as 7
I wake up nervous today. After a (poor) nights sleep this “let it rip” process seems far biased toward political and economical gain than it does our health. Does anyone understand Long Covid enough yet to counter the argument for 100k-200k cases a day? It feels as though we are now all duty bound to let ourselves and our kids to be expose to the virus, but to what future? It feels almost a criminally insane science experiment similar to those old fashioned “exposing prisoners of war to chemicals” stories you hear. I am worried for my children.
But it’s not limited to Boris. Sahid Kahn this morning has opened up a London competition for Euro final tickets on display of first vaccination evidence this week. Well, hold on though, the vaccine takes 2 weeks to counter the virus, and the first vaccine to limited effect, but he’s going to send those people to a crowded stadium likely via train / tube so they can get pissed as “lucky winners”… this Sunday? Jesus Christ..
Good article from Nick Triggle / BBC about learning to live with the virus
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57678942
He mentions a death rate below 1/1000 cases now, I'm sure he and his colleagues have better data and more time than me - I estimated 1/400-1/500 using the crude How many died last week (122) / How many new cases were there 3 weeks ago (50-60K) and TiRed also i think said he had some numbers (knowing the exalted circles he moves in, may be the same ones as Triggle!)
So if we're at 25K cases per day now, doubling every 9 days (Vallance yesterday) that'll be 50K in 9 days, 100K in 18 (23rd July) and 200K near enough by end of July. If there's that many people left to infect!
And 1/1000 of those (Triggle said less than but I don't like this kinds of qualifiers - how much less than?) is 50, 100 and 200 2-3 weeks after each of those.
Controversial but if that is the price of freedom, then the Gov as the elected party has the right to make that choice. And be accountable for the outcome. Against a normal death rate of 1700 per day seems 'tolerable'? (as long as it's not my Mum or Dad)
And as Whitty said, if there is a time to do it, summer is better than winter when seasonal pressures and flu will hit - NHS is calculated to be able to cope with that level of infections and hospitalisations acc to his models.
Still don't agree that we shouldn't be still taking what other steps we can to minimise transmission for a bit longer, flatten that hump a little bit more while more vaccines, etc. can be done, and reduce the chances for an escape variant to mutate, but it's not my choice to make.
Die is cast, bring it on.....and remember when you next put an X in a box.
What I found most depressing yesterday was the “we need to be patient while we look into it” answers to questions about vaccinating the under 18s. That sounds wise. What do we do to help protect the older teens and their families while it’s looked into? What do we do to stop the spread of the virus if we require a good proportion of teens vaccinated to reach “herd immunity”? As of two weeks time… very little at all. As for vulnerable people, the same groups are most at risk from high prevalence as they were before. If we really are at 100K+ new cases a day and still rising when we stop mask wearing in public places, for some people it won’t be “Freedom Day”, it’ll be the end of being able to visit public places for a good while. I just hope we have some good weather for those people to be able to do stuff outdoors.
Are the staff of the NHS immune from catching the virus? No… so who’s going to look after the patients when numbers increase? My wife works in a hospital, in a team of 27, 5 are isolating because family members currently have it & the numbers aren’t even as high as forecast. She didn’t have staffing issues in the first & second wave, this may get a bit messy…Ps, great thread & thanks for all the contributions from everyone. Apologies if this has already been covered.
Learn to live with it seems very much like it or lump it. The emphasis being very much on accepting the risk of drastically reduced mitigations rather than accepting day to day life now requires some changes to behaviour. Guess it'll be the usual case of worse than we are being told but better than we might fear. Although it does feel global Britain is going to give first to wave four variant a really good go.
Although there's still a lot I'm not comfortable with* I am also coming round to the idea that most of the restrictions need to end soon. There will always be a jump in infections when restrictions lift, and the NHS is best placed (less worse placed?) to deal with that before the normal winter health pressures ramp up. That window is shrinking.
The numbers that theotherjonv has provided for deaths at least are just about in my comfort zone, and I'm reassured that so many of my friends and family are planning on continuing to take some precautions in the short to medium term, which I'm seeing mirrored in wider social media posts.
*long covid, vaccinating teenagers, the government's track record on taking difficult and decisive action if the numbers start to go the wrong way, the whole "got Covid done" and vaccine success that will glass over the huge numbers of preventable excess deaths, how many of my new colleagues will turn out to be bellends when we finally meet in an office.....
No… so who’s going to look after the patients when numbers increase? My wife works in a hospital, in a team of 27, 5 are isolating because family members currently have it & the numbers aren’t even as high as forecast.
Isolation rules for double jabbed people to change today. I wonder what we will get…
Not sure why anyone would wait to have their freedom house party. If anything, it's better to have it this weekend, there are fewer cases around than there will be in a couple of weeks.
If us British can work together, shouting at our neighbours and friends over loud music, we can bring forward the peak, and the elderly and immunosuppressed will be able to get back in the shops and on the buses before the end of the summer.
And, through our holibobs, we can export the fresh and innovative variants we develop in the sports bars of the UK to the rest of the world.
Onwards towards victory!
Guardian live feed reporting Germany lifting/easing travel restrictions to the UK. Which all considering might be another case of bringing forward the next wave.
“we need to be patient while we look into it” answers to questions about vaccinating the under 18s. That sounds wise.
It’s a supply issue. Only Pfizer is approved in adolescents by FDA. US have not had much hesitation in protecting adolescents. And it’s given with the irreverent dosing schedule.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/adolescents.html
It’s a supply issue.
It is? Why didn’t they say that then? And I thought we had millions of both coming soon?
[ ah, you’ve edited your post, by both I meant Pfizer and Moderna ]
[ Moderna not yet approved, but likely would be by start of next term ]
@kryton - we don't yet know the effects of the long term on the nation's health, physical and mental, but there is evidence that declining economies create poverty and poverty creates health issues.
Thousands die directly because they can't heat their homes in the winter.
I share all your concerns, long covid and so on. I have said from the start (well, close to) that it is a fine balance with no good answers, just less worse ones.
Thankfully we have the best minds in the country deciding where that balance is, not a bunch of infighting clown****s.
Erm..... to the bunkers, stock up on toilet roll!
I suppose the only promising aspect is that Profs Whitty and Valance aren't standing there screaming "DON'T DO THIS", and I tend to respect their judgement.
Isolation rules for double jabbed people to change today. I wonder what we will get…
Are they? Interesting..
Am I right in saying - bluntly - that case numbers are as high as ever & hospitalisations/deaths are low?
Just getting a handle on things..
maybe PCW has been told next time the two louts won't just want a selfie......
But yes, I count myself as a scientist too, and I trust in general the data and what is said by these smart people. I know there are other opinions (too soon, delay again) but at some point we have to end and what PCW said yesterday about getting it done before the winter rush has just about convinced me.
They'll still be wearing masks personally though.....
Am I right in saying – bluntly – that case numbers are as high as ever & hospitalisations/deaths are low?
Yes. On deaths, from the BBC article I linked, in earlier waves 1/10 infections resulted in hospitalisation, and 1/60 resulted in a death (approx)
Now; it's 1/40-1/50 that results in a hospitalisation (and in general hospitalisations are shorter / less invasive) and 'less than' 1/1000 results in a death
However - if cases continue to increase at the rate they are then even if the multiplier is smaller, Very Big Number x multiplier = significant. But maybe as per other post, tolerable vs the alternative.
And all the cases that don't result in deaths are a potential Long Covid, or mutation that comes back to bite, etc.
Tough balance.
Could someone explain about the Ox/AZ jabs not being allowed as a travel pass, or have I mis read something?
Also somewhere way up there in this thread was the mention of Ox/AZ from India not being as good as from say Belgium. How would one know which of these they had been injected with as a vaccination (Indian produced or elsewhere)?
Thank you
If you have your card, it will have the batch number on it, up the thread the range of batches affected are listed
Could someone explain about the Ox/AZ jabs not being allowed as a travel pass, or have I mis read something?
Also somewhere way up there in this thread was the mention of Ox/AZ from India not being as good as from say Belgium. How would one know which of these they had been injected with as a vaccination (Indian produced or elsewhere)?
Thank you
As I understand they are biologically identical - no difference in efficacy. SII didn’t seek approval from EMA for it as they didn’t need to at the time. I’m sure approval will be given before too long. Individual EU countries can, however, make their own decisions.
PAH! The Delta variant is for losers - all the cool kids are worried about the lambda variant these days!
stock up on toilet roll!
Warehouse space don't come cheap!
We're basically saying that if ~600k die a year, covid might kill 40k, but the total won't be 640k because there'll be some overlap. If your number comes up then it sucks to be you but that's how the world works. Harsh but there it is. You can make choices for yourself that reduce the chances of your number coming up earlier than it might or you can live a lifestyle that makes it more likely you'll die sooner. These are not choices confined to those designed to reduce covid spread.
Right or wrong do what you need to do for yourself. A bit more difficult if you're in a public facing role and your employer doesn't have your back.
So am I right in thinking they are gambling on it ripping through society like wild fire next month, hoping most don’t get it due to vaccination, those that do will be younger and not go to hospital, and deaths will be minimal. Then after a month or so the number of infections will collapse as there is genuinely no one else left to infect?
Sounds like a huge gamble especially with risk of variants, but at same time I can see the logic in it.
August may be a tough month however!!
Then after a month or so the number of infections will collapse as there is genuinely no one else left to infect?
broadly yes (month is a guess, but fairly quickly). Except you can be infected again. Although hopefully each time less serious than before, unless it's a variant or worse an escape variant.
Sorry I was a bit anxious / angry earlier. Just annoyed at the apparent lacsidaisical-ness at PM level, when it takes a couple of posts of STW people to lay the facts and process out to keep people calm in a way that he can't - so thanks for doing so.
Kryton - I along with many others feel your pain.
Thanks everyone for the answers above to my question. I'm not going on foreign jollies any where soon, but I do have relatives that live abroad and I'd like to see them one day. Maybe by then the booster jabs won't be Ox/AZ.
the lambda variant
Is that the one where you have to fight off the zombie headcrabs?
If your AZ batch number begins with 2 letters it is the UK made vaccine. the ones from India have a batch number beginning with 4 and a Z in the middle. My second one was from India.
The batch No is on your little blue jab card or on the NHS App.
The batches in question are 4120Z001, 4120Z002 and 4120Z003.
My first jab was the 003 batch, lucky me!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-57665765
My view is that it's political posturing and the EU/UK will eventually reach an agreement on it. My colleague said that the NHS Covid App just states AZ vaccine regardless if where it was made.
Is that the one where you have to fight off the zombie headcrabs?
Remember the rush on bog roll last year?
It'll be like that, except for crowbars.
NHS app states the manufacturer, vaccine product, batch number, place administered.
Good article from Nick Triggle / BBC
That's unlikely.
He appears/ed to be using the BBC as platform to get a job with RT Today, Fox and/or GB News.
With the new BBC boss he's now a dead (ha!) cert for promotion.
I wonder how many of the antivax crowd will have a wobble now that they can't rely on other people protecting them?
To this:
So am I right in thinking they are gambling on it ripping through society like wild fire next month, hoping most don’t get it due to vaccination, those that do will be younger and not go to hospital, and deaths will be minimal.
I'll add:
For THIS Variant. Other variants will be along shortly, and for the foreseeable.
another BBC link
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57733276
this time Niall Ferguson, with a different number estimate.....
Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College - whose modelling helped lead to the first nationwide restrictions - said as restrictions eased there was the potential for the UK to have a very large numbers of cases - 150,000 to 200,000 a day - which could "still cause some pressure to the health system".
However he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that although it was a "slight gamble" he thought it was "justifiable", adding "I'm reasonably optimistic."
He said the vaccines would keep deaths far lower than in previous waves. "The ratio which we saw in the past between case numbers and deaths has been reduced by more like eight to 10-fold.
Similar numbers of cases but his estimate of cases to deaths 8-10 fold lower. They were 1/60, that becomes 1/480 to 1/600 which is not 'less than 1/1000', and on a potential 100-200K cases per day becomes potentially 400+ deaths per day in mid August.
I did think that the Beeb article was very much the Party line, but I was assuming the numbers don't lie.
First jab was Made in India - hoping Scotland don't go all EU on us in August (and that their rates drop!)
I wonder how many of the antivax crowd will have a wobble now that they can’t rely on other people protecting them?
Not many - when you’re invested that deeply in something as batsh1t crazy as an anti-vax conspiracy you can always come up with something even more unhinged to suit your agenda..
18 new cases in NSW/Sydney yesterday:
11 were in isolation for their entire infectious period, 5 for part of it, 2 just walking about spreading it.
Not too bad.
However… schools go back on Monday - or not? Lockdown is supposed to end on Friday, but I think they’ll certainly extend it over the weekend, and maybe delay the return of schools until Wednesday. Personally, I think they should extend for another week - but we’ll see.
Meanwhile, they are tightening-up on people using qr codes to check-in. From next week you are basically going to have to check in whenever you go indoors.
We're getting rid of QR code check-ins ... ignorance is bliss.
We’re getting rid of qr code check-ins … ignorance is bliss.
Didn't Boris say yesterday we'd still have the support of "effective Track Trace"?
This really is "who gives a shit, over to the little people"
