Mobile mortuaries and field hospitals on school playing fields. That’s a pandemic!
Na, this is a proper pandemic. None of your bed-wetting modern rubbish like Ebola and covid:
Flannerj
You should try telling that to those of us that work in healthcare. Idiot
Flannerj
You should try telling that to those of us that work in healthcare
I doubt they would say anything to anyone, unless behind their keyboard or surrounded by their fellow simpletons. Those that are shouting this shit the loudest are often the most socially awkward - as suggested in the link up there.
Just remember the usernames.
I think the government have decided that a few hundred deaths a week is something they can live with.
They’ll not admit that, obvs but this is what Javid means when he says ‘living with it’ ,
There was always a level of deaths that was "tolerable", as there is with seasonal flu, alcohol related deaths, traffic accidents.
It's just that the government haven't said what it is. Labour's health spokesman has asked them to clarify, apparently. Good luck with that.
Mobile mortuaries and field hospitals on school playing fields. That’s a pandemic!
Thank god we managed to avoid that…. not by much though.
...and only by putting some quite serious measures in place.
This comment is largely a response to something I saw a few pages back last night, and I decided to add something. I also picked out a few choice comments from today's posts above.
This is based on the idea that those complaining they want their lives back are "selfish idiots" who "just want to go to the pub", and "you can go to the pub now, so what are you complaining about?"
At least as I see it, it's not about me. I've already paid the price, and will probably continue paying it for the rest of my life. My young family has had some brutal times since March 2020, and as an honest hard-working taxpayer, I probably will be paying for the economic fallout for the rest of my life. I know "selfish idiot" is a popular phrase at the moment, but I personally would never dare say that to anyone asking for some amount of normality back.
I do also have to remember that life is different again here in Wales, where we are still not allowed in each other's houses, and the 2m rule shows no sign of being lifted and will potentially kill most in-person business.
At this point, my worries are for others.
1. In my opinion, at least in the UK, the fear of Covid has been promoted to an incredibly unhealthy and excessive degree, and that needs undoing sooner rather than later. The state of our nation's mental health is currently horrifying.
2. We are screwing the younger generations. I have a kid in nursery, and it's really hard to watch how hard it is for the staff to try to offer some kind of healthy environment for the kids while complying with all the reams of rules. We're not even allowed in the building, which I think is unacceptable. I'm sure it only gets worse for primary and secondary schools, and I"m sure university education will suffer too. As well as that, the economic effects will make it hard for younger people to get on any kind of job or career ladder at all.
3. It's incredibly tough on young families. It would be great if all the voluntary childcare and toddler groups would open again, so that my wife's life as she raises our kids at least has some respite.
4. In my opinion, the social effects of isolation and mask-wearing policies will, in the long term, be severely detrimental to the social health and cohesiveness of our nation. It really sucks not being able to read people's faces, or see anyone smile.
It's not because I don't care about people dying. It's because I think cure is wore than the disease.
As long as 130,000 people die out of view of the general public, everything is still just dandy.
550,000 people die a year in the UK, mostly out of sight, and of approximately the same average age and condition as those who have sadly passed from Covid since 2020. It's very sad for all those involved, but it's not anything new.
You should try telling that to those of us that work in healthcare. Idiot
A very close relative works in healthcare. They are scared and deeply troubled by the amount of other health issues they see, that are the results of the UK's lockdown policy. They told me they cannot take it any more, having to tell people that an ambulance is on the way when they know perfectly well that, due to a variety of reasons but dominated by the state of Covid procedures, there is not.
Just remember the usernames.
Delightful. Write them down, so you don't forget them. Maybe distribute some copies of the list, to make sure everyone gets the message.
I don't know about others but I'm properly bricking it about our direction now. Partly from a fear of what could happen to the general public with variants etc but also as it goes against every bit of scientific evidence and is leading us straight to a certain second winter locked down (or as locked down as we did before). But mainly because it will destroy me personally, mentally and financially. I'm only just starting to get my head above water mentally after having spent the last 8 months trying my best to protect my elderly, vulnerable parents where I've put pretty much my whole life on hold and not met friends anywhere near as often as the rules allowed. Financially I was lucky to benefit form a very decent redundancy payout last year but that has now pretty much all gone. I'm just on the cusp of finding full-time work but due to me being a new starter I'm at the real risk of any job being taken away at the first sign of trouble and losing it all.
So when I see this written:
49 and never stuck a muzzle on my face in the whole time. Can’t wait to look back on this scam in years to come. A great many folk are going to feel rather duped.
I just want to scream. Try explaining to the families of the 6 people I know who have died from the virus or the multiple people I know who have had it but managed to survive, some with mild effects but two have serious long Covid, that it's all a scam and didn't really endanger the lives of their loved ones. Or the friends I have in the NHS who have gone through absolute hell for the last 18 months.
But reading this gives me some hope:
She said that she’s obviously in a position to hear a lot more about each individual who had caught the disease (they were talking about people cooperating with contract traces, being honest about where they have been) and she said that a common theme between people who had caught it was the overwhelming feeling of guilt at the prospect of having passed the disease on to somebody else who might get ill or die.
That’s certainly the reason that I’m careful (and will continue to be), and it’s good to hear that most people feel similarly.
The bit I've put in bold is exactly hoe I feel. So happy to have it confirmed I am not alone.
Twrch: At least your post is reasonable & not aggressively offensive unlike some others, but what I would say is that it does contain some logical fallacies
1. In my opinion, at least in the UK, the fear of Covid has been promoted to an incredibly unhealthy and excessive degree, and that needs undoing sooner rather than later. The state of our nation’s mental health is currently horrifying.
You need to consider what the state of the nation’s mental health would be if the disease was allied to run rampant. Thousands of deaths & millions infected is going to have an equally detrimental to people’s state of mind. You can’t tell me that people in Brazil are relaxed & happy thanks to Bolsonaro?
Similarly, unchecked transmission would have a massive effect on businesses that rely on human contact. People will go into self-imposed lockdown as was demonstrated here before L1 started. Have a look at Sweden’s economic performance to see that trying to avoid lockdown doesn’t prevent financial hardship.
The virus is the thing causing the problem. Illness and economic difficulties are the result of it.
As well as that, the economic effects will make it hard for younger people to get on any kind of job or career ladder at all.
It's interesting that some still assume that not acting to reduce transmission is the best/only way to reduce the economic effects of the pandemic. As for education... prioritising a "no restrictions" approach to the summer holidays over starting the next academic year on the best possible footing in September still seems like the wrong choice, acting in the interests of the wrong people. Well, except for the fact that many in education can't vote, and those that can tend not to support the people in this government.
I just find it hilarious now and can’t wait for two weeks time.
I'm more interested in twelve weeks time.
For some perspective, when deaths peaked (twice), mortality (number of corpses per week to be blunt), was running at double the normal level. Now the "death industry", like any other, has a natural capacity and a little flex (say 20%). It was swamped. Yes there was a run on body bags. Yes there was a concern for mobile mortuaries and mobile crematoria. That doubling was against a background of the most significant restrictions in social interaction seen for an infectious agent. Sometimes the media limits its reporting for a reason.
Responding to @twrch, I agree with much of what you've said - as do most people. Some return to normality is due and vaccination should provide a route to that return. But don't be surprised if when things start to snowball, measures are reintroduced. We were late with those measures last winter and saw twice as many deaths as "a very bad flu year". A shift to morbidity in the younger population will certainly make the news.
Personally, I think that we will see events drive decisions again if data starts to look unpalatable. Winter flu and booster vaccinations is the plan. Watch for RSV infections too in the elderly who are untreated for this viral infection.
I think I’ll use my ‘common sense’ in staying out of the way of other people, like Helen, using their common sense, thanks
Evidenced this morning; Mrs K goes to the post office and queue's with a mask but challenges a woman standing immediately behind her in her personal space, unmasked. The woman's reply was "what's your problem? I won't need to wear a mask from the 19th..."
Its July 5th today. This is the "common sense" we're all about to face.
I feel, as one of those who have complained about selfishness, that I need to respond.
I can't address all of your points specifically, other than really to say i mainly agree. I too have a young family, one with a very specific personal situation that needs things to get as close to normal as we can.
My complaint about selfishness is purely around individuals that say they already refuse to follow basic requests that keep us all safer, relatively low cost / intrusivity measures such as mask wearing. 'I've not worn a muzzle at all' is just a selfish act.
Wanting to get things open again for all the benefits they bring is not selfish, even if as a result they can do things they want. It is good for the economy, for the young, etc. But accepting some simple measures in the meantime to allow that seems still eminently sensible.
One point I would say - yes there are detriments to mask wearing - I'm a little deaf and didn't realise how much I lip read as well as listening. Particularly in noisier environments. It's harder to read facial expressions, although there is evidence that kids can read facial expressions better with masks than with eg: sunglasses, so the eyes actually convey more than the mouth for some expressions.
I'd love to be able to get rid of them, I just don't think we can yet. When made optional, I still think choosing not to is a selfish act because they protect others more than the wearer. Choosing not to while it remains law, sorry but dick move IMHO
Hard agree with all of that Jon.
As long as 130,000 people die out of view of the general public, everything is still just dandy.
550,000 people die a year in the UK, mostly out of sight,
So an extra 20odd percent is OK? Don't forget that's with some stringent measures in place.
Can’t wait to look back on this scam in years to come. A great many folk are going to feel rather duped.
I'm sure my mate will be overjoyed when his mum pops out her coffin and reveals she didn't die from covid as it was just a scam.
I'm sure my other friend's husband will have a chuckle when he finds out he was duped into spending months in intensive care and the couple of times he had his chest sawn open for some emergency heart surgery was just a scam.
@kelvin - I can't help thinking the relaxation of restrictions is very conveniently timed for the MPs summer recess (starts 22nd) and, in a classic Tory u-turn, we'll be locked down again in September/October just when you'd hope to be getting into the swing of an uninterupted academic year.
In my opinion, at least in the UK, the fear of Covid has been promoted to an incredibly unhealthy and excessive degree, and that needs undoing sooner rather than later. The state of our nation’s mental health is currently horrifying.
I wonder how much of a "thing" this is - I see it mentioned Twitter a lot, largely by anti-lockdown anti-maskers, but I don't feel I particularly live in fear (caveat - great employer, very supportive of WFH, can go into the office if we choose, and I sometimes do), Mrs Pondo teaches secondary so is at far more risk of catching it, but she tests regularly and does what she can to mitigate in the face of a criminal lack of support from the government. If I do go to the office or pop to a shop, I wear a mask, socially distance and sanitise regularly, not out of a sense of fear, more out of social responsibility.
Thousands of deaths & millions infected is going to have an equally
Millions of deaths without the precautions
I wonder how much of a “thing” this is
Just yesterday, my 12.5yo refused to go down a shop aisle because it was “too crowded”.
Interesting that twrch comes in with a calm counter argument to the generally prevailing view, and there's a sensible discussion around points that people agree on and disagree on.
Maybe those that rant about bedwetting muzzle wearers could learn a thing or two from his example.
Well done twrch
Just yesterday, my 12.5yo refused to go down a shop aisle because it was “too crowded”
Sensible guy. It's quite nice knowing some younger people are being cautious too.
having to tell people that an ambulance is on the way when they know perfectly well that, due to a variety of reasons but dominated by the state of Covid procedures, there is not.
If your friend the healthcare worker is doing this then thats gross professional negligence without a defense. Instant dismissal. therefore i si9mply do not believe it because no one in healthcare would do that.
Even now the guidance is hopelessly confused. Mrs OWG works in a school. One of the kids she’s been working with got a positive test, LFT then confirmed by PCR. The school has had several emails from PHE about what the procedure should be. One says that staff who have been in contact with a case should self isolate and get a PCR test as soon as they can. Another says they should get a PCR test on day 5. The official pages at gov.uk and NHS.uk both say they don’t need a PCR test unless they have symptoms. They also say that even if you do get a PCR that is negative, you still have to self isolate for the whole 10 days. So Mrs OWG got a PCR test. At the test centre the was a notice that said all of her household should also get tested – none of the guidance had suggested that. And then she got an email confirming a negative result, which also told her she could now go back to work – directly contradicting the ‘guidance’ on the official pages. So it isn’t really surprising that no-one seems to have a **** clue what is going on.
The guidance is pretty simple in education. I'm a teacher too. In the event of a possitive case, everyone who has been in close contact (the class group and staff) isolate for the full duration. It was relatively recent when they said you could return if you test negative after so many days. But if in doubt, just stay at home. In my college we just isolated for the full duration after a possitive case.
Other half is in a school where staff do not isolate if a child in the class is positive. They isolate if there is a positive test at home though. Our youngest is in a school were pupils in a class groups don't isolate if someone in the class is positive. They do isolate if there is a positive test on their bus though. "Pretty simple"... means varies depending on school and local authority.
I have been wondering about this for a while and tbh this seems to be the place to ask based on my skim reading on these pages. Apologies if someone has already asked/answered.
So, having listened to all the briefings recently and watched the little banners going across my screen announcing how many 1st & second jabs we have all had (I get my second tomorrow) it seems we are well on the way to a high percentage of coverage. Whilst i look at all the deaths with sadness i have not been swayed at all from my belief the government and all the advisors planned the herd immunity program from the start and it was always just a case of reaching the magic number of confirmed cases or vaccinated individuals whilst protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed.
I asked a ward nurse about cases in my area yesterday. She said 5 in total. They are completely on top of things at present and have capacity to cope. I then asked how many cases in total have they had in for people with 1st or 2nd jabs. She couldnt answer. Now considering the 'selling point' of the jabs isnt that it protects you from getting it. Its to stop you being hospitalised, WHY ARE WE NOT HEARING THE GOOD OR BAD NEWS STORIES?? It seems weird that the major selling point isnt being stuffed down our throats. Or am i missing something?
Our youngest is in a school were pupils in a class groups don’t isolate if someone in the class is positive.
I'd be reporting that school if I knew the name. My nephew (6) had to isolate when there was a possitive case in his class. He tested possitive a few days later with no symptoms. Just shows how easily it spreads.
My nephew (6) had to isolate when there was a possitive case in his class.
That's a primary school though. Secondaries have to be more flexible, or most kids would be sent home, considering how many share a classroom once you've looked at all lessons/subjects.
I then asked how many cases in total have they had in for people with 1st or 2nd jabs. She couldnt answer.
It wouldn't be that useful. People who have had their second jabs will make up a large proportion of a hopefully ever smaller number of hospitalisations, as more of them will be in the older age groups. And the more people have had their second jabs... the larger the proportion of hospitalisations will be people who've had their second jabs.
WHY ARE WE NOT HEARING THE GOOD OR BAD NEWS STORIES
We are, it's called huge case numbers and very few deaths.
I'm wonder if the changes in the waring of masks will make that much difference as there is already no masks in pubs, cafes, restaurants, school, lots of work places and private events. Will adding shops and public transport to that list change the infection rate much more.
If that is the case Nobeerinthefridge then why are so many complaining about cases going up? Surely we dont care about that stat now as long as the death rate doesnt shoot up or the hospitalizations dont shoot up. In fact the more cases without needing care means the vaccine is a success and they are right to open things up.
In fact the more cases without needing care
That would be fine, if it didn't also mean more cases needing care. Admissions are currently rising slower than cases are, which is good news (but don't forget the lag). They are not flat though.
Don't ignore the "not hospitalised but not recovered" people either, however many they are (a bit of a statistical black hole there).
Define care Kelvin? The point is if they have been vaccinated the majority of people shouldn't need hospital care. Why are we not being told how many cases that require hospital care involve people who have had 1 or 2 jabs?
Why are we not being told how many cases that require hospital care involve people who have had 1 or 2 jabs?
Why would it help? If admissions are lower in this wave, even if everyone admitted had 2 jabs, it would still be a positive sign that vaccinations are working.
Let's assume, say, a third of people admitted this week had 2 jabs... what would you do with that info? Some would understand that isn't a sign that vaccinations are failing... but what about those that would take it to mean (wrongly) that vaccinations don't offer any protection?
What happens if in a month's time, when the huge majority of people have had 2 jabs... and therefore the majority of admissions are likely to be people who have had 2 jabs... how will people use the knowledge that more people are being hospitalised having been 'fully vaccinated' than those who have not been vaccinated at all?
I’m wonder if the changes in the waring of masks will make that much difference
The problem with a policy that was never brought in on the strongest of evidence is that it is also quite difficult to prove they are not required. Whilst I have gone through the motions, I have a lingering suspicion that putting non-airtight bits of cloth over your face is little more than a placebo measure. I wont be wearing one beyond the 19th by choice but would still respect e.g. a shop owner who asked - it will take time for everyone's perception of risk (and what mitigates that risk) to level out.
Kelvin, you keep modifying your posts and adding stuff. Makes it very difficult to answer.
Because if most of the admissions are for people who havent had the jab then it underlines the vaccines value, it gives credence to opening things up and it backs up what the government is working towards. It puzzles me they arent reporting its success to hammer it home.
The last thing i want to be hearing is lots of people (say a third like your example) being admitted who have had both jabs. It would completely undermine things. The percentages of hospitalizations for people who have had the jab are supposed to be 90%+ less than those who havent
Of course there becomes a point where the huge number of people vaccinated means the numbers will be muddied. At that point surely its just down to hospital cases being not worth talking about and lets get back to living our lives.......if the vaccine is as successful as they say it is
Because if most of the admissions are for people who havent had the jab then it underlines the vaccines value
But that won't necessarily be the case.
- Most at risk people will have had two jabs. These people will still make up a large proportion of those hospitalised.
- Eventually a huge majority of adults with have two jabs, so most people admitted will have had two jabs.
These aren't signs of a lack of protection offered by vaccines, but are in fact the expected results of a successful vaccine roll out.
Low total admissions is the biggest sign the vaccines are working. The proportion of those admissions being vaccinated people doesn't mean what some might take it to mean. I'd publish those figures, but not shout about them, for that reason.
The last thing i want to be hearing is lots of people (say a third like your example) being admitted who have had both jabs.
Well, that's pretty much what I would be expecting. And for the proportion to increase a the rollout reaches more and more people (all the while reducing the ratio of cases:admissions).
It would completely undermine things.
It might well do, not everyone would understand, so why publicise it?
.
FFS I can't embed this. Israel the one to watch. Restrictions lifted on June 1st. Still using masks though...
Just yesterday, my 12.5yo refused to go down a shop aisle because it was “too crowded”.
I do the same, to maintain social distancing.
WHY ARE WE NOT HEARING THE GOOD OR BAD NEWS STORIES
we are, it's on virtually every news bulletin, on the MSM websites, the Gov website. Every day - cases, hospitalisations, deaths, vaccination numbers......
If that is the case Nobeerinthefridge then why are so many complaining about cases going up?
In answer, here's what I wrote yesterday
24K new cases today – a weekend, when reporting is low. 174K new cases in the last 7 days (28/6 to 4/7) – that’s a 66.9% increase over the week before (21/7 to 27/7)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
I predict there will be 70-100K new cases per day by the end of the month. Half a million plus new cases per week.
There were 122 deaths this week – allowing for a 3 week case to death evolution, and looking back at cases from 3 weeks ago there were around 8000 cases being reported per day. If 8K per day leads to 122 deaths per week in 3 weeks time, the 24K cases per day currently will result in around 370 deaths per week 3 weeks later, and the 70K cases per day in 3 weeks time will be leading to 1000 deaths per week in 6 weeks time.
And that’s without long covid, etc.
Yes, it’s lower than it was before vax started having an effect (about 0.25% cases result in deaths by my calc) but how big a number do you need it to be to accept this is not over.
The issue is that deaths lag cases by about 3 weeks. So yes, deaths are low now but we're already on the escalator, and those deaths in 3 weeks are already wired in. As are the ones in 6 weeks time if we don't act to cut transmission.
Disclaimers
1/ that's the back of the envelope calc, I'm not a proper modeller. We'll see how accurate it is in 3 weeks time by the pile of bodies (TM the PM). I did a follow up after and I think it could be worse than my estimate.
2/ Factors against that rate continuing - increased vaccinations, acquired immunity, etc., making the death % lower. End of school year reducing in school transmission which creates a network of infection through the country which is then carried home to Mum and Dad. At the moment I don't think adults are largely infecting adults (community events, Euro semi's, etc. aside) - it's transferring via kids.
3/ Factor that may make the rate increase - removal of restrictions and a wild end of lockdown party / shopping trip with no masks or SD and we no longer rely on kids to transmit, we'll be passing to each other directly.
Some old data...
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403293596556607488?s=20
That looks like the more severe the result, the more likely an individual was to be double vaccinated... but that's because at first we targeted vaccinations at people most at risk of a severe result... these people all had their chances much improved, but are still more at risk than others.
and re the numbers dying / in hospital that have had 2 jabs.
Virtually everyone that dies in a car accident is wearing a seatbelt. Do you conclude seatbelt wearing is the issue?
How many has it saved is the question - in January about 2% of cases were resulting in deaths. Now it's 0.25%. It's not all due to vaccination, but that 85+% reduction and a mass vaccination program is not coincidence either.
Indeed. The vaccination program is saving lives. And reducing admissions. It is that which can be held up as a success, and a reason to keep vaccinating, and allows us to open up more, not the proportion of vaccinated/unvaccinated being admitted.
Sadly, the vaccine roll out is not yet at the stage where it is slowing transmission enough for us not to need keep some other measures. It probably can't be until we vaccinate teens under 18. But for "reasons" we're not waiting for that. We'll know at the end of September if that was the right call.
Older, vaccinated people are still those at greatest risk of hospitalisation/death. Remember the vaccine is not 100% effective, so for every 1000 people you vaccinate, there are 100 who remain at risk of symptomatic illness, and a smaller % at risk of hospitalisation.
Cases are still important, because you know that if there are tens of thousands of cases out there in the community every day, the chances of someone who is vulnerable, either unvaccinated or vaccinated coming into contact with the virus is higher.
It's not a reason to lock down, but it is a reason to continue with relatively low impact measures such as mask wearing/some social distancing.
The seatbelt analogy is a good one, because you also see that, despite the massive success of seatbelts in reducing mortality from car accidents, manufacturers and governments continue to look for ways to improve safety, either via research into car and road design, or mildly inconvenient stuff like asking people to not text while driving.
And, of course, the aim is to reduce mortality, but also serious injury from car accidents, which places an ongoing burden on the NHS, as well as blighting the lives of those affected. We don't know the full impact of Long Covid, or the long term effects of severe Covid infection, but there are hints that it could be significant.
