Have fun hiding behind the sofa guys.
Yawn…
Exactly what is it your imagining people are largely doing
indeed. I’m actually intrigued As to what massive sacrafices airvent is currently giving up. Pubs open, shops open, travel abroad restricted but you can still go on holiday to foreign countries, uk wide travel permitted, socialising with friends indoors and out allowed. There is genuinely nothing I have wanted to do in last 3 months that I’m not allowed to right now due to the restrictions.
But please do tell us what you at desperate to get up to whilst we are all hiding behind our sofas?
Blimey. Some people are losing it over wearing a mask here and there eh? Probably the type who calls others a 'snowflake' at the earliest opportunity.
If so sure of your own clear opinion, then there should be no issue in debating it rather than dropping to childish insult levels no?
It’s clear this thread is really just a circlejerk for disaster fetishists so there’s never any point presenting any viewpoint other than the status quo.
At times in the last 16 months it might have been.
But all I and others did was point out that you seemed to have misinterpreted the data you were saying supported your position, and you've come back just being rude again.
You doth protest too much
you might all feel better about wetting the bed
Dick.
The roadmap was published on 22nd February and is being followed, there isn’t a plan to continue restrictions once the 4 tests were met (and have been)
Have all four tests been met? Genuine question, I've not seen any reports or statements from the government or scientists confirming this, and I thought this was why it had been out back to July.
It's possible I've missed all this in the general noise.
Dick
Not helping the debate really?
So not really missing out on anything then due to the current restrictions, and Just whining for the sake of it..
You just keep responding with ‘you’re all bed wetter’ comments though.. it’s pretty hurtful stuff..🤔🤔😂
Not helping the debate really?
You think he was debating with you with his bed wetting comment?
Happy to debate anything, anytime, with anyone.
Some more gloom for you airvent. 😉 A double Pfizer vaccinated mid-20s relative who has been working in a vaccination center is currently ill with Covid, he was due to fly to Greece for work tomorrow . One very unhappy sick bunny.
Here in ***** we're having a ball before the fourth wave swamps us.
Airvent. You're quite dim aren't you?
Data, not dates
24K new cases today - a weekend, when reporting is low. 174K new cases in the last 7 days (28/6 to 4/7) - that's a 66.9% increase over the week before (21/7 to 27/7)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
I predict there will be 70-100K new cases per day by the end of the month. Half a million plus new cases per week.
There were 122 deaths this week - allowing for a 3 week case to death evolution, and looking back at cases from 3 weeks ago there were around 8000 cases being reported per day. If 8K per day leads to 122 deaths per week in 3 weeks time, the 24K cases per day currently will result in around 370 deaths per week in 3 weeks time, and the 70K cases per day in 3 weeks time will be leading to 1000 deaths per week in 6 weeks time.
And that's without long covid, etc.
Yes, it's lower than it was before vax started having an effect (about 0.25% cases result in deaths by my calc) but how big a number do you need it to be to accept this is not over.
and BTW I still support removing restrictions, even with that ^
...but keeping those that have a demonstrable beneficial impact, and cause very minimal disruption. Such as mask wearing and social distancing.
how big a number do you need it to be to accept this is not over.
I’m going to speculate for a lot of people no number will convince them. What will maybe convince them is when they or someone close to them gets a really bad dose. The more we vaccinate the lower that chance becomes but it’s still a very real possibility
My mate is royally fxxxed with it at the moment. Mid 40s, runs 20 miles a week. Currently completely broken. Earlier in week apparently it was fine, no worse than a bad cold, but sure enough 3 days later he’s going downhill. In his words ‘I hate to think how bad this would have been if I’d not been vaccinated’….
Didn't we have a new account recently that was also an bed wetter fetishist? Not the porno poster, one after that!
and BTW I still support removing restrictions, even with that ^
…but keeping those that have a demonstrable beneficial impact, and cause very minimal disruption. Such as mask wearing and social distancing.
My position as well, I feel I should add. All I want is for the right restrictions to be lifted at the right time.
Tpbiker - hope your mate starts to shake it off. Everyone I know who has had it has talked of at least 1 month to get over it, the majority have needed at least 3 months, a couple are 6 months in and still not right.
A couple of people I know have died, but this was pre-vaccination days.
…cases per day in 3 weeks time will be leading to 1000 deaths per week in 6 weeks time.
Remember when Witty stated that an August lockdown was quite likely…. Well, that.
....but we can't go backwards.....
We won’t have an August “lockdown”. We might have an entirely avoidable reintroducing of restrictions/measures once the schools and colleges reopen next term.
The roadmap was published on 22nd February and is being followed, there isn’t a plan to continue restrictions once the 4 tests were met (and have been) so there’s really no debate to be had about extending any further past July 19th.
Uh, huh. You realise that some of us here are numerate, right? And what about the delta/Indian variant with 40% increased transmutability over alpha/Kent that showed up in April?
You do know what we had to do to stop/control the previous waves don’t you? What kind of fantasist thinks that with only 50% double vacced that the “third wave“ will be any different as this government plays outs it’s own peculiar version of Groundhog Day?
But hey, the British Public are “fed up” so that’s that! The same attitude/approach that worked wonders with the EU. I’m sure COVID must be shaking in its boots…
On a scale of 1 to "totally ****ed", I think I can see where this is going.
the 70K cases per day in 3 weeks time will be leading to 1000 deaths per week in 6 weeks time.
Although if they're anti-vaxxers I don't really care.
Go Tayside!!!!
We won’t have an August “lockdown”.
Exactly, no chance. Just like we didn’t have a November one when it was needed.
Javid said: “We need to be clear that cases are going to rise significantly. I know many people will be cautious about the easing of restrictions – that’s completely understandable. But no date we choose will ever come without risk, so we have to take a broad and balanced view.
“We are going to have to learn to accept the existence of Covid and find ways to cope with it – just as we already do with flu.”
I’m sure SARS-CoV-2 will only go for the double vaccinated though, seen as how we’re British an all.
Wait till the rest of Europe acquires delta - we led the way with alpha (home grown).
I don't think I've been called a disaster fetishist before. Nor do I hide behind my sofa - catching up on TdF on mine as I type. But the data are unequivocal - cases are growing geometrically, predominantly in the young - the proportion in <20 and 20-29 is staggering, and admissions are lower than would be expected for the previous force of infection - vaccines work. So now we know; restriction of contacts reduces spread, vaccinations reduce morbidity. How do you balance the two control levers (we only previously had one)?
Personally, if asked, I also think we should relax restrictions (I haven't been asked btw but my views are part of the consensus statement). But be under no illusions, a lot of admissions of children and adolescents will soon bring vaccination of adolescents (Pfizer and Moderna already have the label). Don't rule out further measures in the future. Don't rule out a proper vaccine escape mutant (but coronaviruses are not influenza).
And I'll continue to wear a mask, especially if I go back to public transport.
Keep hiding behind your masks by all means, but don’t be surprised if you get funny looks or people avoid you as they assume you must be sick. Alternatively just give yourselves all a group hug and you might all feel better about wetting the bed.
Logical fallacy of the day: FALSE DILEMMA/BIFURCATION FALLACY
Bedwetter VS ratlicker
I’m sure you’ve already been giving funny looks to those wearing masks for some time now. It’s a well-known intimidation technique to make such bedwetters feel intimidated. It also sends a strong message to those who foolishly believed that wearing a mask helps protect others. Have you tried calling them out on it? ‘Oi, BEDWETTER, why you got that FACENAPPY ON? Scared of your own SHADOW? 😂😂🤣 Yoo do know there’s a CULTURE WAR ON, and your filthy surrender flag is ON YOUR MUSH???’
We can’t be far off some of that by now.
In other news, airvent is Biff Tannen and I claim my
the “third wave“ will be any different
It will be, the link between cases and deaths is now a totally different multiplier. Partly vax, partly that the unvaxxed are mainly the younger age groups where death is far less likely (although other issues, etc.)
But there will be deaths, and if Cases is a Very Big Number as I fear we are already heading towards, VBN x a smaller multiplier can still be a significant number.....possibly towards 1000/week in mid-late August according to my calcs.
the link between cases and deaths is now a totally different multiplier.
Yup, and the previously successful transmission mitigation measures (social distancing and masks) are about to get tossed…
It’s an airborne virus and it’s transmission vectors haven’t altered…
ETA: the point was, what mitigation measure will we need to adopt if we’re at your 100k infections/1k (youngster?) death scenario?
metalheart
Full MemberYou do know what we had to do to stop/control the previous waves don’t you? What kind of fantasist thinks that with only 50% double vacced that the “third wave“ will be any different as this government plays outs it’s own peculiar version of Groundhog Day?
Well the double vaccinated are the more vulnerable half, and it's demonstrably different this time round. We're probably a week or 2 ahead up here in Scotland on this third wave. I think the next 2/3 weeks will be very interesting to see where numbers go. regards hospitalisatiosn/deaths. They are rising, but considerably slower giving we've surpassed peak levels up here from previous waves already.
I think the biggest don't know at the moment is really what level this unmitigated 3 wave will level off at...
i.e. will it just keep rising to multiples of previous peaks, or will it level off sooner rather than later.
I think we may see some restrictions re=introduced myself at some point if the worst happens, whether people follow them is another story, and also lets face it, the tories are done paying for it too (which isn't an insignificant factor in decisions, or whether people can follow any "suggested" restrictions, which is more what we'll get going forward I think. ie gov will blame the people.).
If it goes well here, numbers will be allowed to rise in europe, we're a month or so ahead of them on vaccinations, so that map up there isn't really like for like comparison.
Ah, The UK as Petri dish, good stuff!
metalheart
Full Member
Ah, The UK as Petri dish, good stuff!
pretty much aye, we're the test case. It's what goes with being one of the first vaccinated.
As a separate question I've been wondering on the variants.
We keep hearing every new variant is X more transmissible. Which is fair enough. But that can't be the only change that these variants are causing? Are the variants not having any effect on how sick they make people or how likely they are to cause deaths for example?
The whole mutation chat seems to be focused on transmissibility, surely there's a bigger picture there?
the point was, what mitigation measure will we need to adopt if we’re at your 100k infections/1k (youngster?) death scenario?
well the argument would be whether that is tolerable to get our lives back, and the economy restarted. Do we need to mitigate, or just accept it?
On average 1700 people die every day, that's 12K a week. Can we tolerate 1000 a week due to covid for the benefits?
Not a decision I would like to make, but I don't think masks and SD are getting particularly in the way of getting our lives back, we can do both.
I also wonder whether the virus will run out of truly susceptible people and deaths will drop when there's no-one left to kill. Although mutate and escape, is clearly a risk.
Text from school, Jnr01 needs to isolate with the rest of year 7. :/
well the argument would be whether that is tolerable to get our lives back, and the economy restarted. Do we need to mitigate, or just accept it?
On average 1700 people die every day, that’s 12K a week. Can we tolerate 1000 a week due to covid for the benefits?
Currently it would seem as long as it’s not one of your own just about anything is tolerable… I mean, masks and social distancing are too much for some (personally I’m happy to continue with both as well, seems a small sacrifice to make all things considered)
And, no, not a decision I’d like to make either.
I'd just like to point out that removing remaining restrictions on 19th July is a bit of a dead cat. The cases rates are going nuts now, if we want to bring them back down we need to return to 16th of May or more likely the 11th of April, really can't see that happening.
There's only one way out of this and that's vaccinating the over 12s, preferably before September.
We nominally have masks and social distancing now, it's not working.
/blockquote>
Very interesting, sounds like loony ramblings tbh, who actually gives a shit about the gates foundation being behind the vaccination process or is it another Rockefeller allegation?.
Becoming more transmittable is the likely outcome of successful mutations. It's a random event. The only function of the virus is to replicate, everything else is incidental. Any mutation/variant that replicates faster will be dominant.
There may be other changes. One is that the spoke proteins change making vaccines less effective. The fear would be that it changes into something more harmful at the same time.
The more it spreads the more it mutates and the less predictability there is. So it could be one a form that isn't affected by the vaccine which I guess would be a major concern.
I’ve never read such a load of bedwetting ****. How some of you will cope when the mask mandate and social distancing ends 😂
49 and never stuck a muzzle on my face in the whole time. Can’t wait to look back on this scam in years to come. A great many folk are going to feel rather duped.
You can always infer someone's level of education when they use the word "muzzle".
You can lead a horse to water …
If the ONS stats don’t provide the evidence you need.
I just find it hilarious now and can’t wait for two weeks time.
49 and never stuck a muzzle on my face in the whole time
Oooh, aren't you so tough <swoons>
Actually no, that doesn't make you look tough, it makes you look rather stupid and very selfish.
Johnson doing his piece to camera tomorrow evening.
Final decision to be made on Monday 12th though.
yep, previously healthy people drowning in their own lung fluid has me doubled over in mirth.
What are the ONS stats proving?
What are the ONS stats proving?
The likelihood of dying 🙄
So you're not denying that CV19 is a real thing and has caused millions of deaths?
Are you saying that the back of the envelope prediction of 1000 deaths per week in 6 weeks time is what, not going to happen? Or tolerable?
And can you explain why you don't wear a face covering, when it has been shown by 'compelling data' to reduce transmission. Do you not feel any responsibility for the health of others, or is there another reason?
Do you understand why many see that as selfish, and irresponsible?
