And this trend was growing back in April.
When numbers began to increase again.....?
Bullshine – they are very effective but not 100%. Reduce transmission by at least 70%
Got a link to any scientific paper that demonstrates that claim?
I'd be interested to see a source (or 2) for that.
As luck would have it, if like me you were vaccinated around late March, that’s you and I. Probably won’t register on a site and I may not be travelling anyway.
Apparently I had the 412Z003. Luckily I’m not planning on going anywhere near a foreign holiday for quite some time now anyway.
TJ can cite his own evidence for the 70% claim, but a quick google shows 'compelling' evidence
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2776536
Compelling data now demonstrate that community mask wearing is an effective nonpharmacologic intervention to reduce the spread of this infection, especially as source control to prevent spread from infected persons, but also as protection to reduce wearers’ exposure to infection.
However, the rub is that the mask wearer is protecting others to a greater extent than themselves so the inconvenience and discomfort is somewhat altruistic. If we could say that it was personal choice, OK but choosing not to wear a mask once it becomes optional in my opinion displays a certain selfishness.
But OK, I'll live with that if they're the rules.
What i won't accept is that non-mask wearers become abusive to those that continue to express a choice to do (imho) the right thing. You may as well abuse someone for choosing to donate some of their salary to charity, or take part in volunteering.
Mask effectiveness info towards the end of this article - I'm not qualified to comment beyond "seems to help"
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n432
You may as well abuse someone for choosing to donate some of their salary to charity, or take part in volunteering.
You mean… virtue signalling? Abusing people for altruist acts has already been normalised.
Vaxzevria for me. Europe here I come!
You mean… virtue signalling? Abusing people for altruist acts has already been normalised.
I think this is sarcasm, but, if you like. Abusing someone that an act that has no substantial negative impact on the bystander and may (probably does) benefit them as part of wider society. Just don't get why, other than generally being a nasty human being.
But we must respect their choice not to wear a mask (once it is no longer a requirement), otherwise we descend to their level.
I've said before - my 17yo works at a supermarket (for posh people in a nice Surrey town) and has not been shy to challenge non-mask wearers while the supermarket has a policy. But her managers have now said that they will no longer challenge, just ask - 'please can you wear a mask - we have some inside if you need one' but refusers are already becoming quite aggressive so they should not go beyond that. Usually late middle-aged, well to do demographic in her non-scientific data gather; the young are still largely complying.
Vaxzevria for me. Europe here I come!
You need to check the batch number.
Mine says Vaxzevria but is in the 4120Z001 batch - the first jab anyway.
Some of our MPs are amazing. One, that you would have undoubtedly already have heard of unfortunately for you, thinks that doctors want mask wearing to continue for a bit longer because they are in the pockets of PPE manufacturers… conveniently glossing over that it is his government that has used PPE procurement to enrich contacts…
https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2021/07/stupid-tory-mp-is-predictably-stupid.html
370,769 people are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID-19 in the UK, up by 12,076. Yesterday was 358,693 (+3%) and last Sunday was 274,356 (+35%).
30,790 daily cases in the UK, up by 669. Yesterday was 30,121 (+2%) and last Sunday was 21,758 (+42%).
Link (Today’s Data): https://covid.joinzoe.com/data/.
Link (Nation/Region Charts): https://covid.joinzoe.com/your-contribution?utm_source=App.
It really does look as though it is slowing right down on a national level.
wait a couple of days, weekend reporting is always lower
Am I right in thinking hospital admission is ~10 days after testing positive?
So the latest admissions data of 358 from 29th June should be compared to positive test results of 10,321 on 19th June, meaning a 3% hospital admission rate?
So if we hit 100,000+ daily positive cases, we can expect 3,000+ daily admissions ~10 days later, just under the peak we had back around March?
So if we hit 100,000+ daily positive cases, we can expect 3,000+ daily admissions ~10 days later, just under the peak we had back around March?
Unless the 3% now are mainly the not fully vaccinated group then yep, it’s going to be a bloodbath pretty quickly
The anti lockdown folks can’t quite get their head round that even if the percentage of people hospitalised is tiny, the absolute number who will require treatment if it’s just left to rip is still going to be substantial
My only hope is the vaccine and fact so many people already have had it means we’ll never get to 100k cases a day
It really does look as though it is slowing right down on a national level.
Which part of up 35% on last week do you think supports your comment? Seriously, look at the figures you've just quoted.
meaning a 3% hospital admission rate?
Yes. Assuming lag is the same as for past waves. People are on average spending less time in hospital as well though, which will help free up beds and staff to some degree.
My only hope is the vaccine and fact so many people already have had it means we’ll never get to 100k cases a day
That’s the gamble being taken. But it is a gamble.
Which part of up 35% on last week do you think supports your comment? Seriously, look at the figures you’ve just quoted.
Read it again, that +35% was last week's percentage rise, this weeks is only +3% so a big slowdown.
“this weeks” - are you not quoting a daily rise there, not a weekly one?
370,769 people are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID-19 in the UK, up by 12,076. Yesterday was 358,693 (+3%) and last Sunday was 274,356 (+35%).
According to my maths, 370,769 today is about 35% more than the 274,356 from last week?
That's a day to day comparison. 12k more people predicted to have it today than yesterday.
96k more today than this time last week.
You'd be right that 3% more on a day to day basis is 'slowing down', 1.03^7 is only 1.23, but as I say reporting is lower at weekends
My only hope is the vaccine and fact so many people already have had it means we’ll never get to 100k cases a day
Plenty of people have had Covid more than once. There is no immunity. Even the vaccine does not provide 100% protection.
30,790 daily cases in the UK, up by 669. Yesterday was 30,121 (+2%) and last Sunday was 21,758 (+42%).
the rapid rise seems to be slowing...?
But the rise is still positive...?
Wasn’t there something the other day about FFP3 mask use in a Cambridge (?) hospital cutting covid transmission to almost zero?
There’s a lot of stuff out there about the (assumed/presumed?) pathways for airborne transmission and aerosols, doesn’t take a leap of faith to see that a barrier to this will improve matters.
You would hope that Scottish schools being closed would start to hit R to some degree, but one day’s figures can’t be used to determine that yet. August should see the rise in cases slowing, but without mask wearing etc over the rest of the summer to help contain things more, next term will see the start of yet neither wrecked academic year for so many students. A political choice if that is what we go for. And the wrong one, in my opinion.
Have fun enjoying your restrictions forever then if you're still not satisfied the crisis is over, the rest of us are going to get on with our lives in a few weeks time.
“Forever” - said no one.
We should make sure all businesses can be open as much as possible as soon as possible. Taking some measures to control transmission through the rest of the summer, such as mask wearing indoors, will help not hinder that. We can then see where we are a few weeks into the next school term and see what is required then. Don’t sacrifice (further) the education of our young people for the political win of claiming the “crisis is over”, possibly prematurely.
Have fun enjoying your restrictions forever then if you’re still not satisfied the crisis is over, the rest of us are going to get on with our lives in a few weeks time.
Calm down dear. We're simply clarifying your interpretation of the data you provided.
Well it's going to rip come the 19th, that's a given. The great British public on mass is pretty stupid. Point in case being one of my wife's colleagues, primary age child sent home from school, a school with a high case rate, vomiting amongst other things, quite a common symptom in younger kids. Didn't bother to test him, she has easy access to LFTs as she also works in another school. Palms the kid off onto her very overweight and unhealthy parents and carries on too going to work. She now has symptoms and has potentially infected all those she works with who have to isolate pending a PCR test. It's this sort of bellendery that has allowed this to continue to spread, and that's with restrictions and guidelines in place. Another example of stupidity, a residential school I know had a case I year 8 and promptly sent all the kids home when they should have remained in their bubbles at school. If they hadn't allowed them to go home the previous week they would probably have kept covid out.
Hospitalisations and deaths reported today are both up by more than 20% compared to Sunday last week,( but as has been stated numbers over weekends are less consistent) and to be fair, the number of deaths are small numbers compared to a few months ago so even a few extra makes a big difference,
Have fun enjoying your restrictions forever then if you’re still not satisfied the crisis is over, the rest of us are going to get on with our lives in a few weeks time.
No mask = no admission in any of the shops in my wee Galloway town, signs in every window and the shopkeepers association are continuing with the mask policy, I’m perfectly happy for you to carry on with your life but please do it away from those of us who give an actual f…
No mask = no admission in any of the shops in my wee Galloway town
Be genuinely interesting to see how long that lasts if the big chains and supermarkets drop the requirement and how the less enlightened residents of your town react when challenged if it's no longer a government requirement. Not very would be my guess.
letting the virus rip against a vaccined population is just suicidal....
No mask = no admission in any of the shops in my wee Galloway town,
This will be the interesting thing
- shops are private premises, in the same way as it is permissable for a restaurant to have a dress code, a pub to have no workwear policies, a shop to have a tops must be worn....it's entirely legal for a premises to say that there is no admission without a mask. Although as per the comment earlier, arseholes are already making harder to enforce.
If the gov drops mask wearing completely, then it'll be interesting to see which shops maintain the social responsibility and which don't. I guess the sensible (and yes, I think the non-wearers are misinformed or deliberately being difficult) have the option to vote with their feet and I'll be trying to put my pounds in places aligned with my values. While getting on with my life as best i can.
Masks are pretty ineffective though
Got a link to any scientific paper that demonstrates that claim?
Have fun enjoying your restrictions forever then if you’re still not satisfied the crisis is over, the rest of us are going to get on with our lives in a few weeks time.
This is where this all goes wrong, and why people's backs are up. We're criticised for not debating the counter view. A post is put up that misinterprets the data, folks post back explaining where the error is and instead of saying 'ah yes, I'm wrong' (and who knows, even thanks for increasing my understanding) but instead it's snippy insults.
This debating thing goes both ways. If you want people to listen to your arguments you have to listen in return.
Let me get this right, at the start of all this (about 18 months ago) the received wisdom (scientific) was that a pandemic likely to rage for 2 years.
So now with rising infection rates it’s all over? Because Sajid ****ing Javid says so?
Have fun enjoying your restrictions forever then if you’re still not satisfied the crisis is over, the rest of us are going to get on with our lives in a few weeks time.
Exactly what is it your imagining people are largely doing? Hiding behind the sofa rationing out tins of beans as long as possible and shitting in a bucket?
Not being one for nightclubs and gigs. My life currently is as it was prior to the pandemic. The only day to day difference is my hands are cleaner and I wear a mask in confined public spaces in an attempt to protect those around me. Christ knows how some are so absurdly sensitive to mask wearing being some sort of assault human rights, I look forward to anti scarf marches next winter.
Be genuinely interesting to see how long that lasts if the big chains and supermarkets drop the requirement and how the less enlightened residents of your town react when challenged if it’s no longer a government requirement. Not very would be my guess.
Like I said, “wee Galloway town - kirkcudbright”, only has a very small Tesco and co-op where mask wearing/hand gel and limited numbers are allowed in at any one time continues. Funnily enough all the locals fully support measures, being a small town with limited shops it’s very easy to judge the mood amongst locals. The only folk kicking off so far this year have been holiday folk coming into the area, some of them have been utter dicks as experienced by mates who own shops in town.
So now with rising infection rates it’s all over? Because Sajid **** Javid says so?
That and because people have ‘had enough’.
I said from the start that this gov would totally f up the measures needed and then make it drag on. Yes I know that doesn’t make me a genius. So now we have the ‘lockdowns don’t work’ narrative (you can’t make it up) joining hands with the ‘**** this for a game of soldiers’ narrative.
All horribly predicted/predictable. If it lets rip again then it will either send everyone and their kids and dogs to get jabbed and masked up or else it will just descend into some kind of anarchic and misguided ‘culture war’
The issue will be whether small shopkeepers can afford to turn down business from people who won't respect the owners request to wear masks.
Is it just civil trespass if you don't leave a shop when requested? Can you use reasonable force to remove a trespasser? Will the Police have the time and resources to back up shopkeepers if things get nasty - which they will, given the abuse shop staff are already getting.
The issue will be whether small shopkeepers can afford to turn down business from people who won’t respect the owners request to wear masks.
Yep. Conversely will the silent sensible majority vote with their pound if they don't.
Yep. Conversely will the silent sensible majority vote with their pound if they don’t.
I will wear I can
I wonder how the different countrys will go (I’m sure they’ve been doing the usual consensus approach and it’s another ‘one nation’ decision... )
It's clear this thread is really just a circlejerk for disaster fetishists so there's never any point presenting any viewpoint other than the status quo.
Some of you under your little rocks would be surprised how much of the population is bored and sick of this now (and long ago) but are socially forced into agreeing with the pro restriction brigade.
Have fun hiding behind the sofa guys.
It’s clear this thread is really just a circlejerk for disaster fetishists so there’s never any point presenting any viewpoint other than the status quo.
No it's not. There's several prepared to debate it but you have to listen back and accept where your argument is, simply, wrong. Do you understand why your maths is flawed, or are you ignoring that because the 35% increase in a week doesn't fit your narrative of almost over.
How big a number would it have to be before you accept it's far from over?
It’s clear this thread is really just a circlejerk for disaster fetishists so there’s never any point presenting any viewpoint other than the status quo.
Some of you under your little rocks would be surprised how much of the population is bored and sick of this now (and long ago) but are socially forced into agreeing with the pro restriction brigade.
So, you present figures as evidence that the virus is all over. When the error in your working is pointed out, it transpires that the reason it’s all over is that you are a bit bored. This is why people like you get criticised on threads like these.
