Putting the Uk in a marginally better position in the Brexshit negotiations and world trade as we can be manufacturing JCB’s
Diggers for the mass graves?
FT had a good comparison by country. Although given the UK only tests severe cases in hospital, where as S Korea tests anyone with a cough, it's hardly apples vs apples...
[url= https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49663937137_33387017ef_z.jp g" target="_blank">https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49663937137_33387017ef_z.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/2iECEfe ]Corvid-19 progress[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/brf/ ]Ben Freeman[/url], on Flickr
I do not trust BJ or JRM or Pretti Vacant at all. In fact I wouldnt out it past that lot to accept that roughly 250,000 OAP’s will meet a premature end over the next few months.
I thing Cummings is in charge, Bojo doesn't care what happens; he achieved all his ambitions when he shagged his GF in No. 10, after achieving that he hasn't got the faintest idea what to do.
Odd thing is, Cummings seems very keen on killing off all the Tory Voters asap; which does seem a bit short sighted. Maybe the Kremlin have given him a fixed time window to wreak havoc, so he doesn't care what happens....
Just heard (from the horse’s mouth) about someone at work who’s tested positive. Grand total of symptoms was a minor fever lasting 12 hours.
I slept badly on Friday night feeling slightly feverish but no other symptoms, which I put down to the hotel air conditioning. Second thoughts now.
Would sampling clusters help identify if there is an issue, just seems there are lots of yes, no, maybe out there.
One thing that puzzled me was my mild was a mild version of a 24hr hour thing a couple of months back. Felt like I'd been hit by a bus at the time. Which makes it feel more like it's not this time.
Supposed to have a mask fitting on Tuesday. I work in Theatre recovery as an RN and have trauma and ENT ICU experience so busy getting up to speed with my books and ventilators...
We've been told nothing from too many service delivery managers and general managers...(the whole place is bogged down with managers). It will be the Drs and Nurses who will get us through this.
If its half as bad as some have said then no amount of extra ventilators will help because we just haven't got the experienced staff to safely use them. I have seen some anaesthetic reports on timelines and it does make for some interesting reading. I could go on and on but I feel at the moment it feels like a roller coaster when we're on the first hill up.
Ok. So everyone seems pretty certain this will be a massive shitstorm.
Are you still sending your kids to school tomorrow, are you still trudging into the office you don’t need to be physical at?
Discussion with wife this evening, she thinks carry one, I think close the bunker
We having same discussion with same points of view dt78.
Wife’s argument is if going to get it, better to get it early, and even if you go get it what of it?
I’m on the more worried side of the fence.
Have decided on school tomorrow and then see.
I told my manager this evening that I'm not coming into the office for the foreseeable due to my asthma. They initially tried to convince me otherwise, then tried to make it difficult by stipulating a bunch of rules regarding regular check ins, progress updates and trying to get me to submit a proposal of what work I was going to do when they had no more work to give me. When I pointed out that I'm only helping them out as I actually work in a different dept and I could just go back to my normal job they backed down and said they would ring me tomorrow.
We're shut down at my work which is good because it stops me from just not going in tomorrow.
Not that I'm especially paranoid that I'd get it via work, more because we were just pissing about. New work had slowed to a crawl and we have no idea what things are going to look like in a month or two so the ongoing work was becoming a farce. No reason to be there. Also, I'm not filled with employee loyalty these days but I'm not sure that's making any difference.
As I mentioned, I'm the primary carer for my mum who has heart failure and COPD. We lost my dad in December, so I'm pulling up the drawbridge. I'm diabetic myself but tbh I'm not too stressed about my own health, just about the knock-on.
Is it the right call? Don't know. Is it definitely the wrong call? Definitely not. Makes it a no-brainer as far as I'm concerned.
But molgrips , the absolute expert on everything ever has smugly spaketh
Well if you'd been reading properly you'd see a few pages ago where I said I'm not an expert but neither are you. I'm trying to unpick what is going on rather than just jumping on the shit government shouty bandwagon. I think there is more going on than is being let on because of the highly respected scientists who are heading up the response, and I'm curious to understand.
Footflaps I prefer deaths to cases because of differences in testing between countries. I did use a simple lag time model to predict deaths from past cases a week ago, which works very well indeed for projection, except the U.K. has changed testing. Then I looked at growth rate of any country compared to all others. Based on that, UK, France and Italy are all trending on the mean doubling time. South Korea and even the US are doing well for now. If we see 100 cases By Tuesday, I’m concerned we are off the curve.
It’s relatively rudimentary compared to my past efforts, but so much is not known (like incubation time, infectiousness even immunity.
Reducing contacts, will definitely reduce transmission though. Whether it reduces the overall numbers infected is still moot. But incidence will be lower.
Sounds the right call NW, all the best to you and your mum.
Whitty was mentioning the 1% and 80% infection on the news briefing, the 2 are mutually incompatible, it was at this point I realised he was either an idiot or a liar.
I'm hugely pessimistic, if I'm being honest, it will take a miracle, & I think they are lying to us because they daren't say how bad it will get.
but I've seen some of the prep being done in the NHS & the jr docs in my lab are being recalled from research & I know how absolutely dedicated they are.
My mum had a fit & pneumonia last year & my dad had a stroke , my FIL has just been diagnosed with multifocal cancer, including in lung.
We have 4 young kids, one of whom has a potentially serious medical condition that'll need monitoring for the rest of his life & the NHS is essential to that.
So I've gotta hope for the best !
BBC saying UK has 7 critical care beds per 100k, Italy 12 per 100k, Germany 29 per 100k.
Slow clap. Well done Tories.
I'm aware a neighbouring health authority has purchased three pop up mortuary's. I'm not sure if they come with fairy lights, bearded hipsters and ambient tunes.
Had a disagreement with the mrs tonight. She’s been pretty much carrying on as normal, I’ve barely left the house for the last week and definitely don’t want to from this point forward. Also her job is going to involve going into care homes and potentially hospitals which quite frankly scares the shit out of me. Suffice to say she’s much more stoic than I am, and she’s usually right so at least there’s that.
BBC saying UK has 7 critical care beds per 100k, Italy 12 per 100k, Germany 29 per 100k.
Slow clap. Well done Tories.
Let's not turn this into a political matter. Successive governments have consistently underinvested in the NHS for decades, promising the world but under delivering. If it wasn't such a great political hot potato they would have made an across part agreement to lock in spending for the NHS.
Not sure if this has been shared yet, probably the best conspiracy story I've read on it. Some real thought has gone into this one patching it all together with story links to actual events and timings etc
Any corroboration for this? Just so it can be ratified?
'I'm a senior Chinese intelligence officer'
On a website platform any halfwit could construct.
Ooookay then.
I'm a lumberjack and I'm ok...
Let’s not turn this into a political matter. Successive governments have consistently underinvested in the NHS for decades, promising the world but under delivering. If it wasn’t such a great political hot potato they would have made an across part agreement to lock in spending for the NHS.
It absolutely is a political matter.
That's a great website.
Schools, when will they shut ?
I give it 1-2 weeks. My plan is to keep my oldest out for the next two weeks, and either the teachers will be ill by then or the kids causing a shut down. First week it will be because she has a cough , and the second week because I have a cough. I'll be wfh but probably work in the evenings instead (mainly).
I have zero trust in the government's strategy. Zero.
BBC saying UK has 7 critical care beds per 100k, Italy 12 per 100k, Germany 29 per 100k.
BUT…
The NHS maintains critical care beds for patients who are seriously ill and require constant support. These are measured on a different basis to other beds described in this section.
1 Unlike most other categories of hospital bed, the total number of critical care beds has increased in recent years. In 2011/12 there were around 5,400 critical care beds, by 2016/17 this had risen to 5,912 – an increase of around 9.5 per cent (NHS England 2017b).
2 Of these, around 68 per cent are for use by adults and the remainder for children and infants.
Austria taking no chances:
Corona Virus in Austria
A brief guide to what you need to know about the virus in Austria, in English.
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By Chris CumminsThe Austrian government has extended the measures aimed at slowing the spread of the corona virus, Covid-19. So far, as of Sunday at 5 p.m., 860 people have tested positive for the virus, with one fatality and a second suspected fatality, both in Vienna. In all, 8,167 people have been tested for the disease.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the virus strain that causes Covid-19.
If you have symptoms or are worried that you may have the virus, stay at home and call the phone number 1450 (available 24/7)
New Rules
In an extraordinary session of parliament today, Sunday 15th March, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz extended restrictions on freedom of movement. The measures were passed unanimously in record time.As of Monday the 16th March, you should only leave your house for three reasons, Kurz said:
1) for work engagements and activities that can’t be delayed or carried out from your own home,
2) to make urgent purchases of food,
3) to go to the aid of other people in urgent need.
What’s Open
Food shops, chemists, post offices, petrol stations, banks, tobacconists and animal feed stores all remain open.The authorities say there is no need to make large “hamster purchases” of provisions.
What You Can Do
You can go out; for a walk, for example, but only alone or with people with whom you share a household. Chancellor Kurz said these excursions should only be undertaken if absolutely necessary.
These restrictions already began on Sunday in the province of Tyrol.The Possible Penalties
The Austrian police has been tasked with controlling the new regulations and if you break the rules, fines of up to 2,180 Euro can be applied.No Bars, No Restaurants, No Sports
Kurz also announced further restrictions on everyday life in Austria.As of Tuesday, 17th March, restaurants and bars will be shut entirely. Before this new tightening of the rules, they had been told they could open until 3 p.m.
Sports grounds and facilities as well as playgrounds are also closed with immediate effect.
Border News
Flights from the UK, the Netherlands, Russia and Ukraine have been added to the list of those denied permission to land in Austria.Flight connections with France, Spain and Switzerland, Iran and South Korea and China had already been suspended to slow the spread of coronavirus. Both flights and train connections to Italy have been stopped.
Germany is closing its borders with Austria as of 8 a.m. on Monday, 16th, with exceptions being made for commuters and the transport of goods. Austria has introduced border checks with Switzerland and Liechtenstein.
Education
Secondary schools and institutes of higher education in Austria are shut. Primary schools and Kindergartens have switched to providing childcare because the government wants to avoid having young children being looked after by their grandparents, putting the most at-risk group in more danger of becoming infected.Call For Solidarity
Chancellor Kurz spoke of weeks ahead that will be “challenging, difficult and painful” but called on a sense of solidarity in society to fight the spread of the virus. He said everyone had a part to play in this common struggle.Young men who did alternative social service (Zivildienst) in the last five years will be called into service; the period of those currently serving will be prolonged.
A four billion euro aid fund has been created for businesses affected by the corona shutdown.
^ Seems sensible. Guess it’s where we’ll be in the next couple of weeks.
RM.
The biggest outlier from the data is South Korea. They have nailed it.
Don't think S Korea is done with this. Average age of their patients is low compared with others, hence 0.7% CFR. When it gets into their elderly groups, we'll see how they get on.
As for our government's predictions, picking the absolute outlier and saying you'll beat them is ambitious.
Jolmes: please step away from the thread if you believe any of that guff you posted, I was out before the end of the first few paragraphs.
I’m making a note of all the spurious predictions, assertions and other nonsense on this thread and will be reminding everyone, when this is all over, of their stupidity. You have been warned.
JP
I’m making a note of all the spurious predictions, assertions and other nonsense on this thread and will be reminding everyone, when this is all over, of their stupidity. You have been warned.
JP
Well it augurs well if you get to do that because it means both you and at least one other STWer made it through alive.
That's the spirit! Make a mental note to have a pop at people as soon as the 'too soon?' window closes.
Sheesh!
Doesn’t matter, a third of a million deaths is almost the same as the UKs total deaths during the war (civilian and military), half a million is around the same and anything above is more! And that’s in a shorter time span! That’s mental.
The uk death rate is about 9/1000 annually.
There are 66million people in the UK, so that’s about 550000 people dying every year.
Is suspect this will be a very bad year, but still a lot of the people that die from covid19 would have died in the next 12 months anyway.
Cheery thoughts. 🙁
Is suspect this will be a very bad year, but still a lot of the people that die from covid19 would have died in the next 12 months anyway.
Society as petri dish?
Footflaps I prefer deaths to cases because of differences in testing between countries. I did use a simple lag time model to predict deaths from past cases a week ago, which works very well indeed for projection, except the U.K. has changed testing. Then I looked at growth rate of any country compared to all others. Based on that, UK, France and Italy are all trending on the mean doubling time. South Korea and even the US are doing well for now. If we see 100 cases By Tuesday, I’m concerned we are off the curve.
It’s relatively rudimentary compared to my past efforts, but so much is not known (like incubation time, infectiousness even immunity.
Reducing contacts, will definitely reduce transmission though. Whether it reduces the overall numbers infected is still moot. But incidence will be lower.
I agree deaths are more accurate than cases albeit with the lag, but I guess you also need to be wary of the Fatality rate which will vary depending where a country is in an outbreak. I.e might be 1-2% in early stages, but 7-8% once the ventilators run out.
The uk death rate is about 9/1000 annually
That surely can not be right or the average age at death would be 110ish?
On the South Korea thing, my mate lives there and says no one there is trusting the government stats, so who knows
Don’t think S Korea is done with this. Average age of their patients is low compared with others, hence 0.7% CFR. When it gets into their elderly groups, we’ll see how they get on.
Scroll down and look at new cases/day, looks nailed to me
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
Thinking about this in a slightly cold, clinical way it could all be a fascinating social experiment.
The group in society least likely to be harmed by this are the fit young. The millenials and gen Z. In fact they have plenty to gain - imagine what might happen to the housing market if a few hundred thousand pensioners don't make it. All those homes on the market and all those inheritances. They are also the group in society that need to step up most - they will be expected to keep working and when not working seeing to the needs of the quarantined vulnerable elders.
They also have a reputation for entitlement and self orientation. The group in society that expects something for something and to put themselves first.
So will they collectively step up or will they live up to their apparent reputation and shrug and keep on keeping on?
Well if you’d been reading properly...
He wasn't talking about you, note the comma. Consider yourself educated on the matter. 😉
They also have a reputation for entitlement and self orientation.
Wait, I thought you were talking about us millennials. Then you said that.
Deaths and cases were equally well-predicted by a five and seven day lag of cases (to reflect a first order derivative). I also agree about death rate changing with numbers and duration, but comparing a counter with all others is instructive for the same stage of an epidemic (I rebase all at a given number of deaths). I’d post SK but images don’t work for me!
Some light relief below, stolen from Twitter
Day # 3 of isolation
https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1238951544017637376?s=21
Just been through jfk security to get one of the last normal flights out of NY to Gatwick and it was full of extremely panicky people, really stressful and scary situation.. Security working hard to control it, but you could see it tiltering. American Airlines cancelling 70% of services adding to the nightmare as people rush to get last flights. End of the world movie stuff and it's horrible when you just a member of the herd and not the hero.
Lots of variations of gloves, masks and homemade protection. Lots of coughing. Hand sanitiser, face masks and wipes are worth more than gold right now. I'll be self isolating on return, just gotta last until the ocado delivery on Saturday.
The question no-one seems to be able to answer is how long can these lock downs last. You hear 2 weeks and they'll review it again, which is fair dos, review regularly, wise. But do they really think things will be sorted by then or even in 4 or 6 weeks?
Doesn't really seem like much of a plan and is just fire fighting.
But realistically how long can a European country remain in lockdown before economies start to tits up?
I suspect not very long, myself.
I don't actually see a great deal of difference between the UK and the European approach tbh. Both are emphasizing protecting their health services as much as possible, with delay.
But the UK seems to be the only country that has half an incling that lockdown can't last all that long.
Looking at the numbers it seems obvious even the likes of Italy is only testing hospital admissions too. Only seen data from Friday but it said they've done 84k tests and 13k positive from that. Which isn't particularly widespread testing is it? The UK reckoned on Thursday up to 10000 cases. So basically I think it sounds like you can add a zero onto any of the offical reported cases, based on the UK admission, meaning italy's true number is probably more in the region of 150k before the weekend. So it's rife through the population.
Surely things are just going to flare up when they have to end lockdown?
Defo seems like people are wanting us to jump too early to me.
Doesn’t really seem like much of a plan and is just fire fighting.
The whole world is firefighting. We can do two things, carry on as normal and ensure exponential spread of the virus with all the horrific consequences, or delay the spread through social isolation and other measures. Both result in massive economic disruption and chaos, one of them reduces the number of people who fall ill and die. Economies can be bailed out and recovered, dead people can't.
Defo seems like people are wanting us to jump too early to me.
It defo seems like you don’t know what you’re talking about. Others have posted the genuine concerns of actual experts, we should probably accept that whatever choice we make the science isn’t as robust as some make it out to be and that we are learning as we are going. Maybe the least risky strategy politically and epidemiologically is the one the government should be adopting. People can forgive or forget a hit to their wallets, they won’t forgive or forget their parents dying.
seosamh77
SubscriberBut realistically how long can a European country remain in lockdown before economies start to tits up?
Less time than has already passed. These are the 2 inescapables of this outbreak- 1, it's going to kill a load of people regardless of what we do and 2, our economies can't deal with it regardless of what we do. Even if you could switch it all off today, the economic damage so far puts us well in the hole.
The modern day economy is not a durable thing- everything is interconnected, and too much is too finetuned, it's a massive complicated machine with a trillion parts spread out all around the world. It works great when it works but supply chains need to flow smoothly and constantly, both supply and demand need to function. Capitalism has been an incredible tool for building efficiencies but the flipside of that is that it's cut out slack wherever it can. Now that we need that slack, there's not much there.
That's not to say we're doooooomed, just that we're going to have to do some pretty crazy shit to keep things functioning. There's no prospect of any sort of business as usual.
Surely if the plan is to slow down the virus shouldn't the advice be to hamster up? Minimise the need to leave the house?
Or do they know people will do this anyway and are just trying to avoid a stampede.
Then again 3 months of supplies is quite an undertaking.
