Little old lady 2 doors down is self isolating.... She's an avid Yoga Guru so Lord only knows how she's going to get on...
Me: Are you ok? haven't seen you for a few days?
Her: (through the letterbox) Yes love, I'm self isolating.. now if you don't mind stepping away from the door (she bursts out laughing)
🤪
Juanking.
Understanding your history if there's anything I can do to help let me know. You have my details.
Happy to hit the shops etc. We both have dependants but if I catch it it's going to hurt but not nearly as much as it could take out of you.
Is it time for an STW sponge on a stick guide for when the last big roll sheet is gone?
Such mixed messages will just result in, “they don’t know what they’re doing, it’s all a load of stuff and nonsense”.
To be fair even if a lot of people were warned they were about to be slapped in the face with a wet haddock they would say "stuff and nonsense" even if you were stood in front of them mid-backswing with a wet haddock.
Some older-sounding bloke phoned into Sara Cox on friday (bear with me, the kids like it) and requested "It's the end of the world as we know it" by REM as he'd "survived the end of the world at least five times already" in his lifetime.
Cheerful fatalist or bellend?
There are a lot of people out there who still really think that 'we' are different and special and "that couldn't happen here". Which is fine unless they submit others to unnecessary risk, which they will, because if there's one thing people like this enjoy more than 'surviving the end of the world AGAIN' is telling as many people as possible about it.
requested “It’s the end of the world as we know it” by REM
Which is apparently trending in various charts around the world.
Went to the pub last night, this was on the bar:
I did ask how much a shot... 😁
Pretty sure that healthy 10yo to 60yo households will need to keep calm and carry on, will be looking out for parents in law (as in doing their shopping) but otherwise no panic setting in in dB towers, if it gets to it will be happy to volunteer where necessary. Would be quite different if my dad was still with us.
Dunblane – docs a staff member confirmed, pupil and parent at high school confirmed, parent at one of the primary schools confirmed, local football coach confirmed.
I’m assuming that everywhere else is on a similar level of cases.
Whole of Bradford only has six cases confirmed. Up 2 from yesterday. But it will come, I'm sure.
Wife has decided to develop a fairly hefty cough in the last 24hrs - should make for an interesting time with a 2 y/o and 9 month old kicking around! On a positive note, we’ve already got reusable bum wipes...
Is it time for an STW sponge on a stick guide for when the last big roll sheet is gone?
Vaseline, applied pre-emptively.
I said it before, I'll be bagging some squirrels for that eventuality.
Cheers Terry. I'm being very selective at the moment and will be for the foreseeable!
@mashr you shouldn’t admit to wiping your arse on your kids
Can’t see anything against it in the guidelines
Can’t see anything against it in the guidelines
Now we are in the denial stage you should be social distancing. Take to the hills like someone else said and use heather.
Edit. I meant delay, I was getting confused by the government’s random policy choices and revisions.
Is it time for an STW sponge on a stick guide for when the last big roll sheet is gone?
There's a Viz technical drawing showing how to convert your bike to a cleaner doing the rounds - seems to work on the dry on grind off principle
I just figured out the toilet paper thing!
Some daft bastard must have thought it was Cornholio virus!
Sphagnum could be another loo paper replacement - Ride Sheffield will have to start checking people aren't stealing those moss plants next planting day.
There’s a Viz technical drawing showing how to convert your bike to a cleaner doing the rounds – seems to work on the dry on grind off principle
How long before a ‘what tyre’ thread or someone moaning because the machine was devised ‘back in the day’ and it won’t take 29er wheels?
How long before a ‘what tyre’ thread or someone moaning because the machine was devised ‘back in the day’ and it won’t take 29er wheels?
Or if rimpact should be fitted and what pressure
makes your arse crack come alive
Looks like a 29er to me
Jesus. I hope to god this is an example of fake news..
https://twitter.com/lukecooper100/status/1239273400545292289?s=21
The Washington Post article was good.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
It looks like a “medium” social distancing ends up with more people in the pink section than the “extreme” version.
Obviously missing the 1% of dots disappearing...
I've got a couple of queries. Not sure if this has been covered.
As the UK government have decided not to bother with testing now and only doing it for hospital admissions (according to gp friend) how do people know if they have had it or not and wether they then have some immunity from it. For reference all last week I was ill and still not fully right now but would have no idea if it was covid or not.
Secondly, and more confusing for me so hope someone can explain it in a way I'll understand. If essentially the whole globe is facing a recession what would stop global quantative easing. Just print a shit load of money and distribute it about?
Pete
(Re: document referred to in that Guardian link)
This is why you need slack in the staffing of your healthcare system, not run it with as few staff as you can get away with.
Someone on the French TV debate tonight said something to the effect of thankfully I'm not in the UK. The difference between Euro reporting and UK reporting hasn't been as high since the run up to the gulf war. The "herd" approach ain't gonna work folks.
Anyhow, junior has flown into isolation in Berlin and I've been told to stay home in Pau with Madmame who's school was ordered shut on Friday. Nothing is open apart from food shops, pharmacies and petrol stations. The anomaly was still running local elections today which I boycotted, first time I haven't voted in local elections. Doubt there'll be a second round.
France has the same population as the UK. The herd approach won't work because if 15% of a population of 60 million are infected then France needs 10 times the number of ventilators that can be amassed in the coming weeks. Either tens of thousands of deaths are acceptable including many young economically active people or you don't use the herd approach, you isolate.
Don't trust your anglo-saxon media sources, you're being misled.
*waves from isolation*
That guardian link is the first I've seen to admit 1% mortality rate means 1/2million deaths.
Government reckon they can get it to 0.6% , & just 1/3rd million .
Let's hope so, NHS in theory is highly centralised & well placed to manage the crisis, but obviously staffing & bed shortages are going to be big factors in keeping mortality rate down
For reference all last week I was ill and still not fully right now but would have no idea if it was covid or not.
That's the roulette element, you only really know if you are in a chain and someone gets it bad. Keeps everyone washing!
I'm in mild manflu met the criteria for self isolation isolation at the moment. The worst part having to say no sympathy please I might need it properly later but hopefully not. Chewing through my random provisions, if it's hard to get stuff going to be a week closer to tasty rice diet when I'm out. Think I'm good for tasty rice for a couple of weeks. Just wondering how came to own so many sauce sachets.
Secondly, and more confusing for me so hope someone can explain it in a way I’ll understand. If essentially the whole globe is facing a recession what would stop global quantitative easing. Just print a shit load of money and distribute it about?
Of course, the money isn't 'printed' but it is just created on a computer and then presumably is distributed to the high street banks. When the banks have access to free cash, this creates confidence in the market and so, in theory, stabilizes the market. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Of course, the issue is that central banks magic this money out for investors and shareholders, but if they'll do that for the ordinary person who cannot afford their rent/mortgage/food etc., given the circumstances, I'm really not sure, but considering the it's the Tories, I am not optimistic.
QE can only go so far, because ultimately the economy depends on circulation of money (this was a key criticism of QE after the 2008 crash - the banks just sat on the cash). Money has no inherent value by itself and is only 'real' when it is spent i.e. circulated and that there is actual economy activity to warrant that - i.e. people going to work, creating demand in shops, cafes, production and supply lines having energy/labour to function. What would be much better than giving the banks the cash would be to give it directly to people, as they did in Australia in 2009. This would create a surge in the economy as most people would spend it - would have to spend it - and therefore it would circulate.
I think this sort of situation is unprecedented - even in war times you develop a war economy which sees high employment and demand for products, so there is intense economic activity. But this is the opposite - if the peak is going to be June, are we going to see borders, flight and travel bans, etc. until June? Unless the government steps in, how are people going to pay their rent after a month or two, once their savings dry up? Now they're saying that even though it will peak in June, it will return in November - the aviation industry will liquidate in weeks, not months, unless there is some sort of bailout. Maybe larger companies can negotiate but a lot of small/medium operators will go bust and of course all this has an accumulative effect as job loses undermine consumer confidence, etc. It really is a worrying situation.
I'm trusting in science - it might feel wrong, but IANAE.
https://twitter.com/Tankslider/status/1239218989793980416
I work in Switzerland & live just across the border in France, Aerospace work so we have our own un-manned border turnstile solely for the use of employees.
Currently business as usual at the supermarkets, a few empty shelves but nothing major yet.
Employer is taking the temperature of everybody coming on to the site on arrival
My wife is still in the UK, now working from home, we've decide that I'll be staying here for the foreseeable future, as getting stranded in the UK without the ability to work & earn (I'm a contractor) would be a catastrophe for us. I normally go home every other weekend, heart wants to go back but following my head, for the moment.
Main concern is for the kids, Daughter is 19 & away at Uni, although for how much longer we're not sure & Son has graduated & works away, but still living in a house of Uni students.
Then there's elderly parents...
Sorry, nothing really to add just needed to join the conversation.
Will be interesting to see how my guidance here agrees or contradicts what the families advice will be at home.
This is why you need slack in the staffing of your healthcare system, not run it with as few staff as you can get away with.
Or not run it with as little money as you can get away with, either.
Government reckon they can get it to 0.6% , & just 1/3rd million .
Presumably they won’t be showing their workings for that one either.
From what I can glean from reading around seemingly respectable opinion, the consensus seems to be 2% minimum. That’s 750,000 in the UK and that is a huge problem.
NHS in theory is highly centralised & well placed to manage the crisis,
Most definitley not true, they need 20 times the number of ventilators they've got on the basis of French, Spanish and Italian experience. The NHS cannot cope with what the government is planning not to do as it stands and with 20% of medical staff sick to deal with 50 times the number of sick the numbers will never stack up. The only way they might just stack up is if the UK adopts the same strategy as Italy, France, Spain, South Korea, Germany Wuhan... .
Either the UK adopts the same measures as Italy in the days to come or the final outcome will be worse than Italy.
Just heard (from the horse's mouth) about someone at work who's tested positive. Grand total of symptoms was a minor fever lasting 12 hours.
I slept badly on Friday night feeling slightly feverish but no other symptoms, which I put down to the hotel air conditioning. Second thoughts now.
That guardian link is the first I’ve seen to admit 1% mortality rate means 1/2million deaths.
Government reckon they can get it to 0.6% , & just 1/3rd million .
Let’s hope so, NHS in theory is highly centralised & well placed to manage the crisis, but obviously staffing & bed shortages are going to be big factors in keeping mortality rate down
Err no!
Might be 1% for cases 0-10,000, but for cases 10K to 50M it will be 5-10%+
Just to repeat, they are saying 7.9M will need hospitalisation.
Let’s say they can get an even distribution and each person has a 2 week stay, they’ll need 300k beds/fortnight. We currently have 8K free beds and 1K ICU.
Whitty was mentioning the 1% and 80% infection on the news briefing, the 2 are mutually incompatible, it was at this point I realised he was either an idiot or a liar.
From speaking to people today and friends over the last few days I think this is shaping into a situation where the general public and companies are going to completely take the initiative on how to fight this, the government is so far behind the reality it's unreal. Every announcement Boris and Co make is already out of date or just completely unworkable, meanwhile people are working from home, self-isolating or suspending their business activities well before the politicians have even got to that stage. We're in a completely arse-backwards scenario where we are showing the MP's how to do it!
Edukator, as of today’s data, the epidemics in France and U.K. are tracking together. Doubling time for cases and deaths is a constant 2.5-2.9 days. Italy is also growing still at the same rate. I hope that we don’t see an acceleration in the U.K., which would be evidence of the intervention (or absence).
The biggest outlier from the data is South Korea. They have nailed it.
Before I did drugs (well Clinical Pharmacology) I did mathematical epidemiology with the Imperial group. I’m updating predictions daily. Italy’s reported new deaths today was, sadly in line with prediction. Still waiting to see a deviation for. The curve.
Doesn't matter, a third of a million deaths is almost the same as the UKs total deaths during the war (civilian and military), half a million is around the same and anything above is more! And that's in a shorter time span! That's mental.
I hope they start giving George Crosses out to medical staff and "Help for Heroes" is extended to medical staff. I'd rather have taken my chances in Afghanistan.
I suppose this was one way of finding the war time Brexit spirit to take us to our sunny uplands and Spitfires.
I’m trusting in science – it might feel wrong, but IANAE.
Interesting.
The main point from the bucket video was when he said that 'we only get one shot at containment' so the timing has to be right.
But molgrips , the absolute expert on everything ever has smugly spaketh ......
US response on TV now seems much more clear and competent than the UK.
I do not trust BJ or JRM or Pretti Vacant at all. In fact I wouldnt out it past that lot to accept that roughly 250,000 OAP's will meet a premature end over the next few months. Saving the government a ton of cash in pensions payments and healthcare
Freeing up bedblockers by killing them off , means less woork for the NHS overall
Then we all get infected and go through the 2 weeks isolation , but then we are the fastest to come through the other side and get back to business
Putting the Uk in a marginally better position in the Brexshit negotiations and world trade as we can be manufacturing JCB's whilst rest of europe is still shellshocked
This is an off the wall and waaaay out there idea, but hell look at recent events then maybe not so crazy
The biggest outlier from the data is South Korea. They have nailed it.
Watch this space.
Still waiting to see a deviation for. The curve.
Give it another week, measures take two weeks to take effect.
