Yet to see much evidence of that working,
What, apart from the falling infection rates while lockdowns were active and the rising rates when they weren't?
Was there some other method of validating their effectiveness you were seeking?
Yet to see much evidence of that working,
I hope you're taking the piss with that ****ing ignorant statement?.
I hope you’re taking the piss with that **** ignorant statement?.
No, I'm not. The UK had one of the worst Covid death rates in the world during 2020. It's dropped a bit now, but it leads the developed countries. Deaths continued to rise for months after the second lockdown started in early November, peaking in February.
Sorry, I thought it was common knowledge that the UK screwed up? Germany had a much looser 2nd lockdown, and has about half the death rate.
On the upside, it looks like the vaccines are working.
This could really backfire.
Its already difficult enough to recruit/retain people in this sector, without adding a divisive barrier to employment.
I don't give a shit. If someone doesn't want to be vaccinated, don't work in the healthcare sector.
Germany had a much looser 2nd lockdown, and has about half the death rate.
Whilst the UK did not exactly cover itself in glory. Germany has a deathrate that has tracked the Euro norm very closely. We exceeded it after Christmas thanks to lack of restrains and B.1.1.7. Happy to provide the plot, but Germany does not have a lot to shout about. Sweden is at the European average (note the upper quartile range is quite close to the median at the moment). Norway is a consistent star - Be. More. Norway.
That's the point I was making - most countries have not had such a severe lockdown as ours, AND have had a lower Covid death rate. I just picked Germany as a handy example.
We exceeded it after Christmas thanks to lack of restrains
I'm not sure how you can say that, lockdown continued until the end of March (and after Germany, using that country again as an example).
I’m not sure how you can say that, lockdown continued until the end of March
You may be forgetting that restraints were relaxed in many parts of the country for Christmas and then reintroduced after it was obvious that transmission of the new variant was seeding across the UK. We also seeded other countries with the UK variant, but they reacted faster than the UK having seen what was happening here. The bump in deaths was as expected from the action over Christmas. Peak deaths normally are in the second week of the year - after people have mixed and had their Christmas flu parties. this year was no different.
Norway is a consistent star – Be. More. Norway.
From what I can tell, Norway has been in lockdown with sealed borders since last March. That's...interesting.
most countries have not had such a severe lockdown as ours, AND have had a lower Covid death rate
We have a pattern of late, long "lockdowns" here. That doesn't mean "there is no evidence that lockdowns can control transmission", it just means the timing is crucial. Act too late, and it takes longer to get things under control, during which time more people fall ill.
You may be forgetting that restraints were relaxed in many parts of the country for Christmas and then reintroduced after it was obvious that transmission of the new variant was seeding across the UK.
Given that the UK restrictions have been consistently tougher than most, even our "relaxing" for Christmas (which, AFAIK, was something like "you can meet with some other family members for one day") is still touger than the "regular" lockdown that most countries employed.
Using Germany again as my example, their second lockdown comprised:
"During the lockdown period, a maximum of ten people from at most two households would be allowed to meet; religious congregations and street protests would be subject to exemptions. Schools and kindergartens would remain open. Restaurants and cafes would only be able to sell takeaway food."
And their "Christmas relaxation" comprised:
"During the Christmas period from 24 to 26 December, social gathering rules will be relaxed to allowing one household to invite a maximum of four close family members from other households. "
On November 5th, we in the UK had:
"National restrictions for England state you must not leave or be outside of your home, but you can exercise outdoors or visit an outdoor public place."
Actually, Norway has a consistent history of protecting its citizens from excess influenza mortality. They have no excess mortality year on year. This is a very impressive achievement. Countries that consistently protect annually have much lower COVID mortality.
The Uk plot shows and additional 25-30k deaths compared to European average. The bump was driven by cases (Week 1 peak) and subsequent deaths (Week 3 peak). The subsequent decline, earlier than rest of Europe, speaks to the effects of our earlier lockdown and add-on later effects of vaccination. The plot of shame...See if you can spot the Christmas
effect?
We have a pattern of late, long “lockdowns” here. That doesn’t mean “there is no evidence that lockdowns can control transmission”, it just means the timing is crucial. Act too late, and it takes longer to get things under control, during which time more people fall ill.
Exactly as I said, with the downside of being prepared for a "quick and hard" lockdown is that you are primed for huge over-reaction at every new sniffle.
The UK also had the unique policy of emptying hospitals at the start of the pandemic, including sending old folks back to their homes. I suppose it makes sense, if you were anticipating the hospitals quickly filling with new Covid patients, but it may have been the primary cause of death during those first few months.
The UK also had the unique policy of emptying hospitals
German hospitals were also "emptied" to prepare for Covid patients. I expect other health systems had to do the same, I don't know, but I remember the criticism of German hospitals for doing so. Of course, they put measures in place for patients send out into care.
but it may have been the primary cause of death during those first few months
And what about the deaths during the winter wave? When we knew so much more, but still "battled the boffins" to stop an early circuit breaker or a party pooper's xmas?
“During the Christmas period from 24 to 26 December, social gathering rules will be relaxed to allowing one household to invite a maximum of four close family members from other households. ”
You've forgotten the unlocking for Christmas shopping prior to that. Mrs TiRed hasn't. The weekend I planned to go shopping was the week we closed them again. She has not forgotten the absence of a Christmas present. Another ten years and I may be forgiven...
People went shopping, they mixed, they saw friends. Some of them complied (we didn't see anyone in the SE). But the Christmas COVID bump is self-evident and precedented by annual respiratory deaths.
You’ve forgotten the unlocking for Christmas shopping prior to that.
So I did - I didn't go anywhere. I'm also not entirely sure we had that unlocking anyway, here in Wales.
I don’t give a shit. If someone doesn’t want to be vaccinated, don’t work in the healthcare sector.
Which is a fair point, but making it mandatory could mean you have to sack 20% of your workforce, in an industry which already struggles to attract people as it is.
Involved in an accident?
Sorry mate, but we can only find 8 people who are vaccinated, want to work in healthcare for minimum wage, and they're busy at the moment.
So can you wait 6 hours until we get around to seeing you?
Yeah, we had 10 of these heros last week and could have seen you in 20 mins, but had to sack Barry & Dave last week....
The better way would be to persuade people to take up the vaccine, rather than force them into doing so.
Try working in health care without evidence of hep b immunity. This is no different. If that means less people want the job then the job has to become more attractive, not easier to fill by putting elderly people’s lives at risk from vaccine averse individuals.
UK restrictions have been consistently tougher than most
Not sure where you've got that idea from. Ask an Australian, a Frenchie or a Spaniard their opinion on that and I think you might find it robustly refuted!
Well, my 2nd vaccination (scheduled for mid-July) was cancelled with no explanation.
I had to book it somewhere else, but on the plus side it's 10 days earlier.
Anyone else today experienced their little darling suffering a sore throat or headache at school and that now triggering full household isolation and PCR test? I guess from the fact that the online PCR booking seems to have fallen over that this development has caused a big wave of PCR test booking this evening!
So I did – I didn’t go anywhere. I’m also not entirely sure we had that unlocking anyway, here in Wales.
Christmas day we were allowed 2 households to meet indoors only, I remember vividly the decisions me and my family had to make about who could see who. It's the only time in the whole pandemic I've wished we had the English rules instead of out more sensible ones.
Not kids, but for the last ~10 days, I've had a mild sore throat and mild headaches. I'd presumed it was hayfever related despite taking my daily Allacan tablet, even though I thought my allergy was more to tree pollen, but sources outside Boris and the Test & Trace app are saying the symptoms most commonly associated with the Delta strain are..
Sore throat
Runny nose
Headache
Not continuous cough, taste/smell change, hot torso to the touch.
Not much point me ordering a rapid test or booking a PCR test now, or is there?
Until today I've been doing my usual work shifts and yesterday I had my second jab, which left me feeling really rough this morning but perhaps feeling less rough now.
no one should be told what injections they do or don’t get – with this precedent set where does it end. (a little dramatic I know
I understand that concern, but Hep B is already required, it's compulsory to have some vaccines to travel to certain countries.
I'm not getting involved in the lockdowns not working debate 🙈🙉🙊
Which is a fair point, but making it mandatory could mean you have to sack 20% of your workforce, in an industry which already struggles to attract people as it is
Look at it this way: by refusing a vaccination, someone who works in the healthcare industry is admitting that they put their own well-being above those whose own welfare is entrusted to them.
I also think that the kind of person who does that is unlikely to take proper precautions when it comes to things like mask-wearing or hand washing.
If a shortage of staff leads to pay increases for carers who are bright enough to see that them not passing on Covid-19 to frail residents is a good thing, then great.
Did my first PCS test (all kids at school being done and kits sent home for parents). Actually threw up doing my tonsils, if that reaction is fairly common can't see much point in kids doing home LFT tests, can't imagine many are being done properly.
@stumpyjon
Feel your pain. Been doing PCR testing for over a year week in week out. However, and I hesitate to suggest this, there may have been some user error on your part. Generally you may expect to gag but probably shouldn’t be throwing up.
(Secondary school age child does twice weekly lfd testing no issue. You get more proficient the more you do it).
A wise move:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57501108
A ban on landlords evicting firms for unpaid commercial rent is being extended for another nine months.
Actually threw up doing my tonsils, if that reaction is fairly common
It isn't. Wife + 2 have been doing 2 per week for months now, scientific analysis reveals 0.0% of incidents of throwing up. I made myself gag once doing one but I gag if I use too much toothpaste and it gets a bit foamy.
Seriously - don't push so hard!!
Have we done US regulator raises “significant concerns” over safety of rapid lateral flow tests
The US Food and Drug Agency (FDA) has raised concerns about the safety and the marketing of rapid lateral flow covid-19 tests, which are the cornerstone of the UK’s mass testing programme.
On 10 June,1 the agency warned the public to stop using the Innova SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid qualitative test for detecting infection and suggested the tests should be destroyed and binned or returned to the manufacturer.
The FDA published a class 1 recall of the test after an investigation carried out between March and April uncovered “significant concerns that the performance of the test has not been adequately established, presenting a risk to health.” Class 1 is the most serious kind of recall and indicates that use of the tests may cause serious injury or death.
In addition, the FDA said that “labelling distributed with certain configurations of the test includes performance claims that did not accurately reflect the performance estimates observed during clinical studies,” and that the test “has not been authorised, cleared, or approved by the FDA for commercial distribution or use in the US, as required by law.”
Is it still worth doing lateral flow tests? There seems to be a good case for going straight to a PCR test if you have symptoms.
There seems to be a good case for going straight to a PCR test if you have symptoms.
Which is what you're supposed to have been doing since last year.
Is it still worth doing lateral flow tests? There seems to be a good case for going straight to a PCR test if you have symptoms.
If you have symptoms you should get a PCR.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/testing/get-tested-for-coronavirus/
LFT is a cheap and cheerful way of screening for asymptomatic infection (albeit with the caveats you raise) - if you get a LFT positive then you follow up with PCR.
And then to add to complications, some areas doing 'surge' testing are requesting people to now go straight to asymptomatic PCR testing to try to map the spread of D-variant - if you're in those areas you should be aware of it by leafleting, door to door and whatever (as well as the list on the link below)
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/surge-testing-for-new-coronavirus-covid-19-variants
as well as more accurate PCR can be sequenced to show variant as well as Y/N
no one should be told what injections they do or don’t get – with this precedent set where does it end.
Certain vaccinations and/or evidence of not having certain diseases are criteria for entry and/or visas to many countries. An in-date Yellow fever is a big one to enter many countries in West Africa, for example.
Needed to show no evidence of tuberculosis to get an Australia visa once. Even needed a negative HIV test result to get my Saudi visa!
Thanks - makes sense
just to expand further still..... on the point of what's the use if they aren't accurate
If you're symptomatic you get the PCR
If you're asymptomatic and not doing LFT's, you're asymptomatic and potentially spreading
If you're asymptomatic and do a LFT
- if negative you're potentially spreading still, so same situation as if you hadn't done the test
- if positive you shield until you get the PCR done (experience says usually within 12-24 hours nowadays) and then act on that.
So a false neg leaves you no worse off*, a false positive is a PITA for a day or so but the benefits of picking up the true positives outweigh that, IMHO
* unless you then use your false negative LFT status as justification to not bother being careful any more. Declared Infection Clear and Knowledgable, is my term for that, usually in acronym form 😉
I haven't spoken to anyone yet who has tested positive on a lateral flow test. Heard plenty of stories about people testing negative on lateral flow then positive on a PCR. It seems this Indian variant may be evading the current lateral flow tests.
We are doing saliva based pcr assessments at work. Much nicer than shoving a swab down your throat or up your nose.
The whole thing has been written up in a nature paper
Nature paper
The lateral flow tests are useful, but they are not what some people think they are. The twice a week frequency is essential. One adhoc test doesn't mean much on its own, having a single negative lateral flow test shot should not be taken as licence to act as if there is no chance you're a carrier. I blame the PR for airlines (partly) for overselling in their media appearances what these tests can do, because the alternatives are so much more expensive and logistically more difficult for their customers.
LF tests are not terribly accurate but they do catch some of the asymptotic who might otherwise be missed. They are typically used by those with no clinical training. They are quick and cheap. They are a means to detect some of those who would otherwise not be detected at all. They aren't useless if used correctly.
PCR is more expensive, takes longer, but more reliable.
I’m not getting involved in the lockdowns not working debate 🙈🙉🙊
It's not "lockdowns don't work", more like "the UK lockdown may have combined the worst of both worlds" (which I was pretty clear with in my first comment). It's certainly true that there are few countries that locked down, and had significantly lower Covid death rate (by "significant", I'm talking around an order of magnitude).
Not sure where you’ve got that idea from. Ask an Australian, a Frenchie or a Spaniard their opinion on that and I think you might find it robustly refuted!
True - Spain and France had worse initial lockdowns (Spain having some especially awful restrictions), although their death rates are about the same as ours. Still - the UK continues to have among the toughest restrictions in the world, although it's hard for me to make a good comparision because the restrictions where I live (Wales) are tougher again, and (like many people) it's hard to work out what's going on elsewhere because movement is so limited. I hope all of you Welshies waited until June 7th to have anyone in your house!
Interesting to watch the discussion on lateral flow tests. I got so much flak back when they were first introduced for pointing out their obvious flaws (terrible false negative rate, unknown provenance). I ended up with a box of them (NHS-issued, too), and frankly it was a joke. The tests themselves and the swabs were in little sealed packets, but the measurement bottles and solutions were all bundled together in a ziplock bag. Performing the test felt more like "my first chemistry kit" than anything useful.
we know that lockdowns can control transmission
Yet to see much evidence of that working, at least in the UK lockdowns
It’s not “lockdowns don’t work”
Err...
Ok, now you've expanded with:
“the UK lockdown may have combined the worst of both worlds”
I don't think anyone in their right mind would disagree with you. 🙂
The reading I did on the lateral flow test was that they aren't *that* much worse than the PCR (I think it was still 90% accurate), so given that we can have them for free and repeatedly test it seems to me still worth doing. We do them if seeing an elderly relative primarily.
I'm in a bit of a quandry - meant to be going on holiday to corwall, but cases there are spiking and lots of hospitality/attractions being closed becuase of it. The weather forecast is crap too. I'm beginning to wonder if we are better off staying at home!
Ok, now you’ve expanded with:
“the UK lockdown may have combined the worst of both worlds”
I don’t think anyone in their right mind would disagree with you. 🙂
Right, and if the UK has had an unacceptable Covid death rate, then most other countries that also did some form of lockdown have not done significantly better. Yes, there are a handful that did, but (for example) other EU countries like France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Belgium are all in the same ballpark.
The reading I did on the lateral flow test was that they aren’t *that* much worse than the PCR
Lateral flow tests have a sensitivity of around 75%, which means they miss 25% of cases.
The UK has also spent nearly a billion pounds on them so far.
the UK lockdown may have combined the worst of both worlds
Absolutely agree with that - brought in too late every time, so allowing infections and death rates to soar, and as a result, needed to remain in force for much longer, so stuffing the economy.
So it's not that lockdowns haven't worked, it's the way we've used them in the UK that hasn't worked.
Lateral flow tests have a sensitivity of around 75%, which means they miss 25% of cases.
The UK has also spent nearly a billion pounds on them so far.
As opposed to missing 100% of asymptomatic cases if we wait for people to get symptoms and do a PCR test.
It's not perfect by a long way, but I'm not seeing any better cheaper alternatives at the moment
