I don’t know how many times it needs to be said, but it’s not about deaths. 20% likelihood of symptoms. 10% likelihood of significant enduring morbidity, say 1% risk of very significant impairment. Times that by 20 million people is 4K very debilitated young and economically active.
Covid Vaccines are to prevent morbidity and the overwhelming of healthcare. They do reduce transmission and do prevent death in the elderly.
I don't hink you can infect enough over the Summer to reduce a Winter wave, Sctoroutes. Latest estimates for France say just over 20% of the population has now had Covid in 18 months. What proportion do you think opening up this Summer would infect? I suggest it wouldn't be enough to reduce a Winter wave, it would just mean the virus circulating at higher levels going into Winter so more cases. And with more chance of mutations.
That’s my reading of it as well Ed. And with the vaccination programme going so well here in the UK, keeping infections down while we progress with the vaccinations at speed will give us (or rather the government) more option not fewer this winter.
The issue with letting it run through the young (as well as the non-fatal but substantial long term debilitating illness) is that they are in essence a transmission network through the community, exposing their parents, the elderly, etc. Fingers crossed, the most vulnerable in the 'older' age groups are mainly protected now so the risk becomes smaller but not inconsequential when the maths is big enough. Letting it run could work if it was a discrete community, but it isn't.
I don’t know how many times it needs to be said, but it’s not about deaths.
You, I, we can say it ‘till we’re blue in the face. Because we were doing so much to avoid hundreds of thousands of deaths, the focus is still (wrongly) on this and this alone right now. Last summer some of the media (TV news in particular) did try and draw attention to illness rather than death, and began to shift understanding a bit… but then the government messed up the winter, we doubled our Covid19 death count, and all the focus shifted back onto deaths, understandably. The work has to begin again to get people to understand the non-fatal illnesses that can arise from this virus. Currently it is just “negative” news to ignore and do nothing about, for a great many people.
If you haven't had a good sweary shout at the radio lately then here's your chance, Majiid "Bawbag" Nawaz is up to his usual bullshit again, 'we don't lock down for the flu - think for yourself people, it's undemocratic to lockdown".
10mins is all I could stomach.
LBC (warning - may increase blood pressure)
I never listen to him. I’ll listen/read pieces by people pushing a similar narrative, but he just wants you to get angry with him. Just ignore. Worst shock jock ‘star’ on LBC currently.
I just had a shopping trolley taken off me because it hadn't been cleaned yet. Thing is it was just in the trolley bay in the car park with no instructions not to take it so I'd already touched it.
He's now talking about overusing vaccines/vaccinating too many people which will lead to greater risk of the virus mutating.......I would call and swear at him but im banned from his show after last time.
Time for 6music......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57460595
"Pubs showing the game across the UK have been told to make sure their venues are Covid secure" under a photo of seven lads sitting shoulder to shoulder on two sides of an outdoor table without masks, getting ready to watch the England game, while a ~60% more transmittable Delta variant is on the lose...
What could possibly go wrong?
Maybe they all houseshare together and are ultra careful with others not part of their household, or maybe this afternoon's game is a great day to kill your friends/family/others with "kindness" in the coming weeks.
Yeah, yeah, rules allow it... Boris has done another world beating deal, this time with Delta.
Yeah, yeah, rules allow it…
No they don't. Social distancing still applies to people not in your household/bubble, and have done throughout.
The problem is the government haven't hammered the message home or legislated for it properly in a way it can be enforced. And the media happily spent last summer, and now this, interviewing people in pub gardens who are (probably) not a household or bubble, and not calling out those who are not following the guidance.
Just got back from my daughter's dance show at the local theatre. Theatre was very well organised, every other row of seats removed, a gap of one seat between each family group, masks required unless drinking.
Light go down, a significant number of people decide that means they can take their masks off. I really don't get it.
Same in Tesco yesterday, people walking around with masks at half mast including some members of staff.
It annoys me far more than I should let it.
As I said last year, the deaths data are extremely unreliable.
As an example, a few months ago, a relative of mine, aged 98, was admitted to hospital after a fall. Tests revealed various tumours that she’d been concealing from close family members, who were told that she probably wouldn’t survive for more than a few weeks.
She died a few days later in hospital. The primary cause of death on the death certificate was COVID19. When my relatives, who were somewhat sceptical about this, asked for evidence of a positive test, the hospital became defensive and stated that she’d been close to someone who tested positive.
I’m not suggesting that there is some sort of conspiracy, but in this case COVID19 was clearly not a cause of death. I’m sure that this is not the only example of this happening.
But, of course, Professor Kelvyn knows best and none of this is true - just wacky conspiracy nonsense.
JP
Perhaps the doctors knew more about the manner of the death then you. Just possible. Are you suggesting they lied, or that they got it wrong?
And by “extremely unreliable”, how far from “the truth” do you think the “deaths data” is/are? That we’ve had slightly fewer deaths than reported, or a hundred thousand fewer?
I’m not suggesting that there is some sort of conspiracy, but in this case COVID19 was clearly not a cause of death. I’m sure that this is not the only example of this happening.
Probably not, but producing a single example does not support your opening statement. Anecdote does not equal data etc.
I vaguely seem to remember you popping up on here after wave 1 to predict, IIRC, that excess deaths moving forward would not be greater than the average year, and that you'd be back to rub our doomongering faces in it. If you've got any actual data which supports significant inaccuracy in death recording, rather than having a dig at Kelvin, then go ahead.
I don’t know for sure but expect that, as we’ve been in lockdown and not much else to do but shag, the birth rate has increased?
Also, is there any evidence that any of the Covid jabs hinder pregnancy in any way?
I don’t know for sure but expect that, as we’ve been in lockdown and not much else to do but shag, the birth rate has increased?
Birth rates look to be slightly down on previous years, but that’s the usual pattern… a small drop each year. Economic security is a key driver for most people when considering starting a family, so it would be surprising if in uncertain times the birth rate did rise. Oh, and contraception is a thing.
bikeforfreedom
Free MemberIf I’m reading this correctly deaths with no pre-existing conditions in age group 0-44 was 101
I think you're not reading it correctly tbh- the figures you quote are "between March-June 2020", not for the whole pandemic. Basically the first wave, and for England and Wales only.
But that aside, why does it matter? I have a pre-existing condition and I'm in age group 0-44, if I'd died I'd not be in the 101, I'd be in the ignorable however-many that don't count because "they had pre-existing conditions".
Diabetes, incidentally. I'm fitter than probably 95% of people my age, my condition doesn't stop me living a normal life. I don't count less. Neither did any of the people in my age group with a pre-existing condition, not a single one of them.
Pre-existing medical conditions have been an excuse to downplay avoidable deaths all the way through this pandemic and it's disgusting. Not to mention misleading and dishonest.
I’m not suggesting that there is some sort of conspiracy, but in this case COVID19 was clearly not a cause of death. I’m sure that this is not the only example of this happening.
It doesn't occur to you that while there may well be incidences such as this, there will also be cases the other way where Covid should have been listed but wasn't?
Nearly 130,000 dead within 28 days of a positive test. 150,000+ have Covid as a cause on the death certificate. Pretty sure they aren't all errors.
Pre-existing medical conditions have been an excuse to downplay avoidable deaths all the way through this pandemic and it’s disgusting. Not to mention misleading and dishonest.
I'll hold my hands up that originally (like March-April 2020) I thought the deaths were only picking from God's waiting room anyway but I was badly wrong. This ^ is absolutely correct - on average the number of years of life lost to each CV19 death is about 10, so 146K deaths means 1.5 million lives yet to be lived. Yes, many had pre-existing health conditions but they were being managed, lives were being enjoyed, and their deaths could in many cases have been avoided.
Death rate at peak for all age groups in ONS data was doubled at epidemic peak. The fact that the death rate for 18-64 year olds is relatively low in the U.K. is good. But that rate was doubled by the presence of COVID-19. Twice as many people were dying as normally expected. In all age groups. You are welcome to debate their cause of death, but not the fact that they died. That doubling was brought under control by intervention.
In a vaccinated population with less intervention but fewer susceptible, there will still be an increase in mortality rate. The magnitude compared to normal is challenging. All the modelling does is try and balance the fraction protected and the increase in mixing. For a new strain that is demonstrably TWICE as spreadable as the strain we had last year.
When out like that, I think it’s a pretty easy decision to say we should vaccinate a bit more and. It mix quite as much.
[tl:dr] deaths doubled even in the younger age groups at peak. Balancing fraction protected by vaccine and mixing is hard, so precautionary principle wins out for something that spreads twice as much as last year.
So everyone is expecting a four week delay now? Yes? Here's hoping that can be presented to the public in a way that keeps their support for measures. It's down to the politicians now to present the "change of plan" (we know it's not really a change of plan, the 21st of June was always the "earliest" date with lots of provisos, but trust me, a lot of people will see it quite differently) in a manner that doesn't result in people giving up on measures too early. This needs to come from the PM, direct to the public, without any nudging and winking on the side via the Telegraph etc that he doesn't mean it.
I don’t hink you can infect enough over the Summer to reduce a Winter wave, Sctoroutes. Latest estimates for France say just over 20% of the population has now had Covid in 18 months
Can I ask is that "have had Covid or have had a vaccination"? And includes all ages?
As a comparison. This claims England was at 70% for Adults back in April. Tbf I've not really dug around the source of that data.
It’s down to the politicians now to present the “change of plan” (we know it’s not really a change of plan, the 21st of June was always the “earliest” date with lots of provisos, but trust me, a lot of people will see it quite differently) in a manner that doesn’t result in people giving up on measures too early.
Should be easy; data not dates. As said all along. Plus - this is a one way street, no going backwards.
The data does not meet the Gov's own four tests https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-spring-2021/covid-19-response-spring-2021-summary
[edit - new link actual Gov wording]
TEST 3: infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
- too soon to tell, infection rates surge is happening, hosp may yet but another couple of weeks of data will answer it.
TEST 4: our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
- while not underestimating this mealy-mouthed Gov's ability to interpret 'fundamentally' to meet their own ends, I think any sane person would accept this has clearly happened. The scientists believe the assessment has changed.
*Should*
Of course, would have been a lot easier and less disruptive if they'd started to accept and message this properly two or three weeks ago when it was becoming clear, instead of 'no decision has been made yet....'
Agreed on all most counts. Including the emphasis on "should".
[ Edited, because I still think promising a one way process was a policy based on hope and boosterism, not an any scientific understanding of what might change. ]
So everyone is expecting a four week delay now?
Yes its following the normal leak approach to get people ready. The only surprising bit is it is the week as opposed to day before.
Was the decision not supposed to me made and declared today? If so, leaking it last night (TV/radio news) or this morning (the papers) seems like the same plan as always.
The only surprising bit is it is the week as opposed to day
beforeafter.
FTFY
Pre-existing medical conditions have been an excuse to downplay avoidable deaths all the way through this pandemic and it’s disgusting. Not to mention misleading and dishonest.
Totally agree. Every single adult over 50 in my family has some sort of comorbidity. But we're all planning on being around for a few decades yet if we can.
Every single adult over 50 in my family has some sort of comorbidity.
Every child in this family. They absolutely should be outliving us adults without conditions (yet) by many decades.
Latest estimates for France say just over 20% of the population has now had Covid in 18 months
Just over 20% of the French population has had Covid according to Instut Pasteur. First cases December 2019, we are now June 2021 = 18 months.
30 million have had a first dose of the vaccine. There's no data on how many have had both Covid and a Covid vaccination.
There are more and more vaccination slots on my app now, maybe opening up to 12-17 years olds will add a bit off impetus to the slowing campaign.
Just reading that Kelvin, really positive news at first glance although I'm reading it elsewhere
I'm hoping TiRed is proven wrong for a change.... 😉
😆
Actually, there have been lots of times that I wish he had been proven wrong... so I worded that badly! What I mean is, I hope they get this vaccine to market asap, it looks very promising for the world... (their track record isn't, er, great when it comes to delivery, which is the point TiRed normally brings up when they're mentioned).
Great technology with small flower like particles of spike protein. I believe we are fill-finishing at Barnard Castle. Ultimately global vaccination is a supply game. The need is so big that competition is moot.
Would be nice to see some U.K. controlled trials with new variants, but that’s not going to happen. The data you see is uncontrolled and matches digital records of those who test positive for different strains.
Great technology with small flower like particles of spike protein.
That post needs pictures.
So, this will get out to the public then TiRed, as supply will come with help from others, not reliant on Novavax? Sounds even more promising.
Bad news:
Public health experts analysed data on Covid tests, hospitalisations and vaccination status for 5.4 million people in Scotland and found that those infected with the Delta variant, first identified in India, were 85% more likely to be admitted to hospital than those infected with the Alpha variant, first detected in Kent.
Good news (well sort of):
Details published in The Lancet show that protection against infection fell from 92% for the Alpha variant to 79% against the Delta variant at least two weeks after the second shot of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine suffered a similar-sized loss of protection from 73% to 60%, again measured at least two weeks after the second shot.
Bad news:
The work highlights how long it takes the immune system to mount a substantial immune response to the vaccine. Strong protective effects were not seen until at least 28 days after the first shots, when the risk of hospitalisation fell by about 70%. There were too few hospitalisations to compare the effects of the different vaccines.
Good news (assuming it happens):
“If there is a delay, I think that will give us the opportunity to widen coverage, which is incredibly important for those who at the moment have only got one dose. It will give the opportunity to increase the proportion of the population with two doses, and then what we want is a period of time where people can actually maximise their immune responses,” he said.
[ Oh, I'm listening to coverage about the protest aimed at Downing Street on LBC now... before we get posts about the "mainstream media" not covering it. ]
Oh no, Johnson has gone for the new date (19th July) being a ‘terminal’ date, rather than leaving the government some wiggle room to extend if need be.
[ GBNews getting a question… that didn’t take long, did it ]
GBNews getting a question… that didn’t take long, did it
I presume they won’t have Channel 4, again.
I seem to remember that C4 have only been invited once or twice in the past year
Johnson seems distracted / half asleep / unable to string a sentence together, even worse than usual.
If it was someone else, I’d say busy week… but he’s long since burnt any benefit of the doubt I’m willing to give him.
