So a quick one:-
I've just had my second jab, booked at very short notice. (15 minutes between booking and stabbing!). It was all very efficient and production liney (I reckon I was in the room less than 2min), and I didn't realise until I got home that I hadn't got a new card or my old one updated with a second sticker. Or any other paperwork...
Should I have done?
Thanks!
Couldn’t agree more.
+1. And as I've said before from my personal perspective even if it was lifted on June 21st if I really had to go on a train / tube / in a room full of people it shall be with a mask and hand washing for a while yet.
Should I have done?
Probably, but download the NHS App and it'll show your x 2 Vaccinations if you need to provide evidence.
download the NHS App and it’ll show your x 2 Vaccinations
it took a couple of days to show up for me but it's there now. You can also download and print out a copy.
Can I ask if anyone has experienced, or feel we should recieve a duty of care from our employers? If I'm being asked to visit a client office for example (I have been, and actually had to think twice for the process to register) should our company not be expressing a series of "COVID Safe" conditions within which we would be expected to work, and therefore be provided by the client?
So hospital admissions are rising again.
Isn't that inevitable as lockdown eases? Hopefully it's a minimal upturn.
Is there any data on who/where this is?
Don't know in detail but Bolton is still pretty hot. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map
By 21st June another 9 million will have received 2nd dose, so 60% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.
By 5th July another 6 million, so 70% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.
By 19th July another 6 million, so 80% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.
By 2nd August another 6 million, so 90% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.
Our current rate is more than 4 million vaccinations a week so there may be a bit of fat in these estimates.
Can I ask if anyone has experienced, or feel we should receive a duty of care from our employers?
We are asked to fill out a request form which stipulates that our customer must provide us with COVID secure guidelines for visiting site. We also must have the correct PPE etc. I'm still getting a lot of uncertainty from customers about doing visits unless absolutely necessary.
@kryton
My understanding - and that's all it is - is that this is a bit like H&S legislation in the the site owner has a duty of care to all there - so their own staff and visitors. So it's not unreasonable for you to be asked to do certain things on site that are different to what you do on your own site based on the site owners covid risk assessment.
Your employer should also be taking care of you / your safety, and providing / enabling you to be safe while out and about. I see that as reasonable but I don't think there is liability in the same way. But any decent employer would still be considering their employee H&S and welfare whether it's legally required or not.
In practical terms I think it is reasonable to ask the site you are visiting to let you know what Covid precautions are in place that you are expected to observe while on their site and if they are inadequate to discuss them with your employer and either agree what extra you can do to protect yourself further, or conclude that precautions cannot be taken and you should not therefore go.
Obsessing with the current variants of concern, rather than acknowledging that allowing cases to rise before we complete the vaccination programme could result in a new variant with characteristics that our current plans don’t allow for, is the mistake I fear is currently being made. Same goes for allowing in new variants from elsewhere at this point. We are so close to being in a position most countries would envy… we should get there before ditching mask use and remaining social distancing measures (some already dropped probably need to come back as well, sadly, for another month or two, while we get people vaccinated).
That tallies up with my thoughts on the situation too. Considering the one 'Win' this lot have had throughout the whole pandemic - massive pre-ordering of every vaccine in development - is down to looking far past the immediate issues you'd think they would have taken the hint that 'Big Picture' planning would be at the forefront of their thinking. Instead we are back to only focussing on whatever generates good headlines and therefore popularity, totally ignoring what we could be heading for in a few month's time.
I really don't hold out any hope for this winter as all it will take is one variant to sneak in (this could actually be the Indian one we already have) and sit in the background until September, slowly spreading around the country in small numbers. When the weather turns colder and wetter and pushes everyone back indoors for exercise, meeting friends and family gatherings it can then run amok and undo all our gains so far. If that variant happens to be good at evading the protection we have due to the vaccine then we are straight back to square one. I hope it doesn't happen and that we are going to have a relatively open winter but I have my serious doubts.
I understand and agree to an extent but the feeling among science seems to be that variants are not escaping the vaccines particularly. And while that's a possibility in future, maybe an inevitability (TiRed who's a genuine grown up in the room has said several times this will become another endemic virus eventually that we have to adjust for and probably vaccinate seasonally based on strain identification), we cannot go on hold indefinitely.
We have to learn from our experiences, prepare and react appropriately if / when. Now that's what worries me, not the potential of a seasonal mutation.....
There really should be no rush for the final unlocking till we have 80-90% of adults vaccinated. Boris needs to be brave, or he'll risk snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Is Covid a notifiable disease for H&S purposes? MrsMC (social worker) has been visiting clients houses throughout the pandemic armed with just a face mask, sanitiser and social distancing, but is not allowed into an office with colleagues
With the blood clotting thing (I know the risk is tiny) doess anyone know that if you 'survive' your first shot, you'll be ok for the second, or is it more of a random reaction?
Whilst there were initial reports that the Kent variant was both more contaigeous and more deadly reports on the news here have refuted the more deadly bit. As discussed at the start of this thread, viuruses often evolve towards more contaigeous and less deadly rather than the other way around.
As many of us hoped treatments have improved and the virus is less deadly. The hoped for but by no means certain vaccins are with us and so far covering all variants against serious forms of illness even if transmission is an issue with some.
There are also second generation vaccines in trials which will cover variants better, and the prospect of years of vaccinations as the virus evolves.
It's very much a case of living with the virus and the idea of locking down just to avoid mutation is, IMO, over the top. There will be mutations, we'll just have to deal with them. If you look at where mutations have occured, they aren't perhaps where you'd expect it if the number of cases were the only factor. The US beats everywere in terms of offical case numbers yet there isn't a deadly super-contageous US variant.
I'm optimistic.
we cannot go on hold indefinitely
No-one has suggested we should. But, having a sizeable proportion of the population unvaccinated means we are still a country that could provide the world with the next varient of concern. As Mefty points out, we're on (ahead of?) target to not be. So keeping the virus under control using the means available to us, especially where there are many unvaccinated mixing indoors, while that vaccine rollout completes, seems wise to me. And that's not "indefinitely". It's probably just an extra few weeks, at worst a month or to... and not of "lockdown", just keeping some measures in place.
This also needs to go into the mix.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346
If it were up to me, I would wait until 2nd August until 90% have received 2 doses. It has been over a year, what difference does 6 weeks make.
P.S 2.8 million last week so 5.6 million per fortnight - I am being optomistic - it also makes the maths easier 🙂
Good post Ed, I share your realistic optimism.
As discussed at the start of this thread, viuruses often evolve towards more contaigeous and less deadly rather than the other way around.
Everything I have read since then, by people who know far more than you and me, is that isn't what is happening, or expected to happen with this virus. That is happens with other viruses doesn't make it a given.
they aren’t perhaps where you’d expect it if the number of cases only factor
Very true. But then the variants of concern have mostly come from areas/countries where the number of cases were high (including here) and allowed to circulate unchecked for a while. But luck is involved.
we cannot go on hold indefinitely
No-one has suggested we should.
There are plenty (not necessarily on here) that think we should, and a few leaning that way.
I struggle to balance caution with the need to live again. As per other thread, my son in particular is desperately struggling now and needs to go into the world and live a life that won't be easy, but has to be faced up to. Maybe that is clouding my risk reward ratio.
If it were me, I would wait until 2nd August until 90% have received 2 doses.
Why 90%? Why not 95%? Or 75% No-one yet knows what the threshold for population immunity is and a quick google found articles which had all those numbers. Sure 90% better, but is it necessary?
It has been over a year, what difference does 6 weeks make.
Materially, maybe not a lot. Psychologically, not so easy to gauge. It's summer - to miss a second will be very hard (and yes I'll be trying to 'socialise' outdoors as much as I can even if we are allowed inside) and also the factor of having the rug pulled is very hard.
Equally, maybe not a lot to the spread / deaths; we still have two more weeks of evidence gathering on the impact of the last opening to crunch through before decision day. The jury's out, we don't need to decide now.
There are plenty (not necessarily on here) that think we should, and a few leaning that way.
Ah. We can't argue for those that don't post here. Who do you mean? I don't know any scientist, or politician, or media talkbox suggesting any such thing. Many are calling for us to keep infections low while the successful vaccination programme is rolled out further. Let's not have a "vaccine vs variants" race... let's get the vaccine rollout to the finish line... it's so close... no need to risk blowing it.
Why 90%? Why not 95%? Or 75%
Israel chose 70%, I believe. No idea what was behind that figure. They were using a more effective vaccine though. Ask yourself why we don't have a vaccination target as part of the metrics used to inform removal of other measures? If we are saying (correctly in my opinion) that the science suggests we can replace social distancing and other restrictions and measures with vaccinations, then the rollout of vaccination should inform when we remove those restrictions and measures. No?
Psychologically, not so easy to gauge. It’s summer – to miss a second will be very hard (and yes I’ll be trying to ‘socialise’ outdoors as much as I can even if we are allowed inside) and also the factor of having the rug pulled is very hard.
What can we not do now that we will be able to do on June 22nd that will make a big difference? We can already socialise indoors and out, theatres, cinemas and restaurants are open?
Anyway, Boris says he's seen nothing in the data to suggest any plans should change.
I was going to ask the same. Indoor gigs and nightclubs are the biggy, I suppose. I know I miss the former. Just been buying 2022 tickets... but for a teenager that's an age away!
J&J jab approved for UK use on a live feed
I have an indoor party to attend with 150 people from all age groups and multiple countries at the end of June.
I will be happy to attend if government says we can. Not sure if everyone that is invited will feel the same.
I will be happy if they say wait an additional 6 weeks until 90% of you have had 2 vaccines. I expect more people will be happy to attend in this scenario.
Everything I have read since then, by people who know far more than you and me, is that isn’t what is happening, or expected to happen with this virus.
You're reading a selective set of articles then. No-one knows for sure and you can easily find counteropinions. By people who know far more than you or me.
Ah. We can’t argue for those that don’t post here. Who do you mean?
Of course we can, we always bring other opinions in here. OK, indefinitely is hyperbole but there are plenty that want lockdown to go on beyond June 21, into late summer / Autumn, and then it'll be the indoor season again so we should avoid that.....
What can we not do now that we will be able to do on June 22nd that will make a big difference?
Fair point but like I said it's psychological, not necessarily logical.
is that isn’t what is happening, or expected to happen with this virus
I think it's a questin of time scale and other viruses have given us some indicators. The 1918 flu virus had some initial mutations that made it more virulent but then there was a sustained downward trend. Last Summer there were reports in Canada and Paris that the virus had muted and was more transmissible and less virulent. That variant was trumped by others. In terms of the survival of the virus, in the long term being more contaigeous is far more successful than being more deadly.
So I agree that so far virulence remains high whilst successful new variants are most definitely more contaigeous. Where I disagree is about what is expected to happen, because I've yet to read or hear that the virus is expected to get more rather than less deadly in the longer term.
Edit: I'm not denying more deadly and more contaigeous is a possibility, but the articles that discuss that possibility still "expect" Covid to follow the pattern of other once more deadly corona viruses that now make up the common cold.
a questin of time scale
Fair/good/valid/interesting point. I was thinking about what we do now, not where we end up eventually. I'm as positive as you about the longer picture, or even as short term as a year from now.
4000 new cases today... gulp...
reopening nightclubs etc on 21st June when the partygoing demographic are much less likely to be vaccinated doesnt make much sense - 20 years old wont be getting jabbed until early/late July?
especially as indian variant will be fully dominant by then and 2 doses are better at protecting against it?
4000 new cases today… gulp…
The case rate in Scotland has been rising for the past couple of weeks but it doesn't yet appear to have been reflected in hospitalisation / fatality rates.
reopening nightclubs etc on 21st June when the partygoing demographic are much less likely to be vaccinated doesnt make much sense – 20 years old wont be getting jabbed until early July?
The vulnerable age groups have been vaccinated so hospitalisations shouldn't rise as drastically as previous waves, although there is no real point in rushing at the last hurdle. Perhaps we could open nightclubs but require negative tests like that recent trial event in liverpool?
Makes sense.
Quite surprised to see the rolling 7 day death toll is up 38% on the previous week. This is exceeding the growth in cases. I was hoping the vaccines would keep deaths low even in the face of rising cases.
Any figures on the Indian vs Kent mortality? Hopefully it is not any worse and this recent jump in deaths is just a statistical anomaly due to the low numbers.
Stats here...
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
French magazine articles state that the syptoms with the Indian variant are comparable with other Corona virus variants so I doubt there's enough difference in mortality to produce numbers. The problems with the Indian variant are:
It avoids antibodies from pervious infection and "serum" vaccines such as Astra Zenca and Johson and Johnson which don't therefore stop infection.
Phizer and Moderna are better but have reduced effectiveness in stopping infection.
It's highly infectious.
It infects younger people more easily.
Quite surprised to see the rolling 7 day death toll is up 38% on the previous week.
I'd not read into it too much on the 7 day average, such low numbers that a couple of extra one day will bump up the percentage increase a lot compared to the case rates.
When its persistent trend upwards for a prolonged period alongside case rates then jump back into the bunker.
Bigger, now fourth in the country thanks to an outbreak in a local comprehensive whose catchment brings kids in from Blackburn. Ironically my wife's school that brings kids in from Burnley and Rochdale has a very low rate this time.
Stats here…
that interactive map, some rather disturbing cases "spikes" across the greater London metropolitan area.
I'll post some good news from the PHE Technical Briefing 13. The SIREN study in NHS workers is monitoring reinfections - defined as another pcr positive infection within 90 days of a previous positive test. This is a study of 45,000 people with relatively high exposure to SARS-CoV-2. The plot below shows that there has been no evidence of repeat infections in this heavily vaccinated population during the emergence of B.1.617.2. That's very good news - past infection and vaccination (95% coverage, pcr tested every two weeks) is not leading to repeat infections by immune escape and (as yet) waning immunity. The mutations in this strain are not predicted to cause immunological escape, and this data confirms it has not escaped. Like much of the PHE work, it's come up to speed very rapidly during the course of the new variant emergence, with weekly reporting and ever-more detailed reporting and data provided. One of the analyses in the report was based on work I presented to them four weeks ago 🙂
That's cool to see Tired!
Cases in my kids schools are making me twitchy!
The plot below shows that there has been no evidence of repeat infections in this heavily vaccinated population during the emergence of B.1.617.2
@tired, I’m not sure the graph does show there is no evidence of repeat infections with the India variant. You’d need to replot the last month with a massively rescaled Y-axis to see what the trend is. I had a quick look on the link you posted and saw in the document they claim to link to the raw data, but when I checked the excel figure 6 (data for the graph) is missing.
I have drank a gallon of wine and I’m looking at this in my phone so I maybe wrong.
So the first point in that article I've linked is wrong if I've understood the data you're presenting, Tired. Antibodies from pevious infection and "serum" vaccines do protect against the Indian variant (which is easier to tpe and remember than B.1.617.2 😉 )
90 days isn’t long tho. You’d need immunity to last more like a year to have any great confidence it.
Why local measures don’t work #147 …
Schools here are still using masks, but communication of that is left to the local authorities and schools themselves. The national messaging is still “no masks in schools”. It should be obvious where that kind of confused conflicting messaging leads by now. So, my lad’s school is having to hand out 300 masks A DAY to kids who have arrived at school without a mask.
Both my kids schools are wearing masks and don't seem to have an issue with that conflicting with the national headlines?
I'm definitely not trying to claim any intellectual superiority for the good folks of Ilkeston, far from it 🤣
Likewise both Kids schools wearing masks and no date for when this will change my eldest is also being tested twice per week. I am happy for this policy to stay the school has been doing really well and the Sunday testing seems to be catching a few which for me is excellent.
Study from phe reported Here that shows some good effectiveness against the Indian variant. IIRC there was also a study conducted on 3000 AZ vaccinated Indian health workers that showed good protection. I'd heard that on a radio report though and despite a quick Google I didn't find it. I'll take another look.
Edit :
Found via the spectator who note it's not a controlled study nor peer reviewed so make of it what you will.
