According to this:
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346
QUOTE 1
"The AstraZeneca vaccine was 60% effective against B.1.617.2 at two weeks after the second dose"
AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:
The Oxford vaccine is 60% effective, so 40% of the vaccinated people will still get covid.
We know from the new data that 2.8% of people that have received 2 doses are hospitalised.
38 million people have been vaccinated. Let assume 2/3 of people got the Oxford vaccine.
So if we open back up fully and it runs riot through the population with no social distancing measurea being reintroduced this is what will happen to those that received the Oxford vaccine:
38,000,000 X 2/3 = 25,333,333 people got the Oxford Vaccine
Of these 40% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 25,333,333 X 40% = 10,133,333
Of these 2.8% will be hospitalised. 10,133,333 X 2.8% = 283,733
QUOTE 2
But both vaccines were only 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2 three weeks after the first dose, whereas they were 50% effective against B.1.1.7.
AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:
The vaccines prevent 33% of the symptomatic disease (lets use effectiveness for calculations)
We know from the new data that 2.8% of people that have received 2 doses are hospitilised.
38 million people have been vaccinated.
So if we open back up and it runs riot through the population this is what will happen to those that have received a vaccine:
38,000,000 people have been vaccinated so far
Of these 67% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 25,333,333 X 67% = 25,460,000
Of these 2.8% will be hospitalised. 25,460,000 X 2.8% = 712,880
Since the pandemic started, 466,027 people have been hospitalised.
don’t seem to have an issue
I thought the same was the case here, ‘till the head emailed us all yesterday to point out the cost/waste/hassle of giving out all those masks, every day. Spoke to the kids, and yeah, lots of refuseniks based on “the government says no masks so stick your school rules” … despite of course the local decision being made based on published government advice to schools and made in cooperation with national public health bodies, rather than whatever the PM and ministers say on the googlebox and brief to the papers. The top line messaging matters more than what is published in obscure documents parents will never read. That lesson should have been learned over a year ago.
I want to post something more positive, so…
https://twitter.com/rebeccajshipley/status/1398205503403085825?s=21
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1398610048188915714?s=21
90 days isn’t long tho.
You’re right. Except they have a huge sample size. Using this definition they did identify a reinfection rate last year that looked similar to other coronaviruses. The other analyses also suggest protection based on simple odds ratios. At least any effect looks small. In still not convinced that this is not expansion into a niche with crossover into an unvaccinated but more mixing community due to unlocking. Higher transmissibility is possible, but it’s not measles!
Just noticed quote 2 referenced first dose, so I was wrong with what I went on to say.
AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:
The Oxford vaccine is 60% effective, so 40% of the vaccinated people will still get covid.
We know from the new data that 2.8% of people that have received 2 doses are hospitalised.
I don't know but my challenges, that I'd look to explore if i wanted to dig further would be
1/ 60% sounds poor, but against the standard variant (Kent I think) it is 66% effective. So not actually that different.
2/ 2.8% hospitalised? Where's that from (polite way of saying CITE!!) Is that 2.8% of all people who've been vaccinated or 2.8% of the people who subsequently get it (ie 2.8% of the 34 or 40%)
2a/ as I've said earlier I think hospitalization is not necessarily a reflection of illness any more; while beds are available we may be treating people who are not in desperate need. Ultimately how many are dying of it is the only real measure.
3/ Getting Covid after vaccination may not be as serious. So the old inevitable ratio of hosp to deaths seems so far to be breaking down.
I don't know if you're wrong or not, but that's what I'd look to question.
1/ 60% is according to this -
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346
2/ 2.8% hospitalised - 5 people hospitalised out of 177 cases - will be interesting to see the rate at the next release
Page 11 -
2a/ The data at this stage suggests 1.1% of cases still go onto die after 2 doses (2 deaths out of 177 cases) but not enough data to be confident of this rate.
1/ not disagreeing the number, the comment is that it is 'only' 66% effective against the Kent variant, so while it is less effective it's not like 90 or 100% effective dropping to 60%. That's in the same BMJ preprint.
2/ i/ There were NOT 5 hospitalisations, there were 5 A&E visits. The line above is for "At least one night in hospital = 1/177 = 0.6% and the squiggle next to it basically says this data is unsafe and needs more looking at to avoid over and underestimation. Basically - you can't rely on it.
[ii/ Only one admission but two deaths? Seems strange - but it's not clear to me that these are deaths with Covid or deaths as a result of Covid. Just an aside really]
3/ Hypothesis but this feels a bit like cherry picking. Yes, 2/177 = 1.1% of the double vaccinated resulted in deaths but the table says that there were 8 deaths in 3367 unvaccinated = 0.2%. You cannot use 2/177 and extrapolate that to the whole population. The double vaccinated, particularly if this relates to populations in the NW, etc., I hypothesize these would be the most elderly and susceptible, vaccine or not and the higher death rate is due to something else rather than the efficacy or otherwise of vaccine. If you just go to the numbers,a logical extension of that is that having had the vaccine makes you 5x more likely to die than if you don't have it - so stop vaccinating now!
4/ A note of surprise - I believe most of the cases, particularly as they will have been genotyped by specific targeted PCR campaigns will have been in the noted areas. Round numbers - 1300 vaccinated vs 3367 unvaccinated. That's low uptake.
BBC reporting another worrying new variant. Vietnam have a 'hybrid' kent-indian.
State of play in the NHS Trusts currently...
https://twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1398871050931290112?s=21
2/ Does anybody know if the NHS Covid admissions that are published are A&E visits or overnight stays ?
This suggests an A&E visit might be an admission but it is not covid specific. I agree with theotherjonv that it would be better if it were overnight stays, but not clear.
https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/hospitals/going-into-hospital/going-into-hospital-as-a-patient/
2a/ I agree deaths is not reliable so I did not put in original statement
This suggests an A&E visit is not an admission.
https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/urgent-and-emergency-care-services/when-to-go-to-ae/
Would be good if it is overnight stays as my numbers will improve a lot.
Good Twitter thread that. Vaccines currently protecting those that have already had them, and don’t have other health issues. Which still begs the question… why not as near as dammit get everyone vaccinated before doing away with social distancing and mask wearing? I’m not talking shutting anything we’ve managed to re-open… just keep them open but without a “freedom day, don’t bother worrying about others” event in June that signals that we no longer need to act to prevent spreading the virus?
The head of NHS Providers has said "very, very few" Covid patients in hospital in England have received two coronavirus jabs - showing the vaccines provide "very high" levels of protection.
Chris Hopson said patients tended now to be younger - meaning there was a lower need for critical care.
But he said it was "incredibly striking" how busy hospitals were, as they deal with non-Covid backlogs.
This sounds very promising on the covid front, but the backlog of non covid work sounds like an issue that will never go away without massive changes to the NHS in terms of funding, capacity and staff levels. I can foresee lockdown being used every time the NHS comes close to being overpressured over the next few years if we don't get a grip on it.
The backlog was horrendous before covid even sprung up so not sure what is next...
I also see the Sunday Times reporting that British intelligence services now admitting a Wuhan lab leak is very feasible. That's going to upset a lot of people but I've been open minded about it from the very beginning. Maybe now it's on the front of a newspaper I won't be shouted down as much.
That’s going to upset a lot of people but I’ve been open minded about it from the very beginning. Maybe now it’s on the front of a newspaper I won’t be shouted down as much.
Same here. Won't be the first. Smallpox leaked here, SARS has leaked from various labs, there was a Russian bioweapon, the FDA found some forgotten-about smallpox samples in a store cupboard. Does happen.
Revised version bases on admissions being overnight stays.
QUOTE 1
“A preprint paper released by Public Health England on 22 May showed that between 5 April and 16 May the Pfizer vaccine was 88% effective, two weeks after the second dose, against the B.1.617.2 variant...The AstraZeneca vaccine was 60% effective against B.1.617.2 at two weeks after the second dose...”
AM I RIGHT TO SAY THIS:
The Oxford vaccine is 60% effective, so 40% of the vaccinated people will still get covid.
We know from the new data that 0.56% of people that have received 2 doses and test positive are hospitalised.
38 million people have been vaccinated. Let assume 2/3 of people got the Oxford vaccine.
So if we open back up fully and it runs riot through the population with no social distancing measures being reintroduced this is what will happen to those that received the vaccines (assuming everyone gets their second dose):
38,000,000 X 2/3 = 25,333,333 people got the Oxford Vaccine
Of these 40% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 25,333,333 X 40% = 10,133,333
Of these 0.56% will be hospitalised. 10,133,333 X 0.56% = 56,764
38,000,000 X 1/3 = 12,666,666 people got the Pfizer Vaccine
Of these 12% will get Covid due to effectiveness. 12,666,666 X 12% = 1,520,000
Of these 0.56% will be hospitalised. 1,520,000 X 0.56% = 8,512
January 1st to 31st March, 170,221 people were hospitalised for Covid as comparison.
also see the Sunday Times reporting that British intelligence services now admitting a Wuhan lab leak is very feasible. That’s going to upset a lot of people but I’ve been open minded about it from the very beginning. Maybe now it’s on the front of a newspaper I won’t be shouted down as much.
Always seemed plausible to me. At least very much worth considering. A Coronavirus pandemic starts in a city with a bio lab specialising in coronavirus research?
Hmmmm. Let me think about that one for a second...
Neiloxford - the maths looks better and more realistic, next step is whether 40% will really get Covid in the longer term because of this mythical herd immunity. And if they do, how long will it take before they get it. 56K all at the same time would be horrendous. Over the course of the next 2 years, is far more manageable.
Am I misreading Neil here in that those numbers arent accounting for people who are vaccinated, get infected, but are protected by the from serious illness effectively enough that no test is taken?
I also see the Sunday Times reporting that British intelligence services now admitting a Wuhan lab leak is very feasible
Which is fine if lessons around biosecurity are learned, and maybe we stop researching how to weaponise the stuff.
Or could open a really unpleasant can of worms if idiots want to play a blame game to distract from their own failings.
theotherjonv - also vaccine protection appears to improve with time based on what we know about the first dose, so it might be the case with the 2nd dose as well.
piemonster - I am not sure to be honest
with regard to was the origin of Covid - this is my logic:
If a virus capable of creating a global pandemic was 1st discovered in Salisbury I would assume it leaked out of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory at Porton Down by accident until proven otherwise - some would blame the Russians
If a virus capable of creating a global pandemic was 1st discovered in Wuhan I would assume it leaked out of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS: Hubei Engineering and Technology Research Center for Viral Diseases by accident until proven otherwise - some would blame frozen food
airvent
Free MemberI also see the Sunday Times reporting that British intelligence services now admitting a Wuhan lab leak is very feasible. That’s going to upset a lot of people but I’ve been open minded about it from the very beginning.
TBF I don't think anyone will be upset by the comment that it's "feasible". But it's not like it's a smoking gun or a proven link. It'll fuel the conspiracy theorists and racists a little is all but it doesn't make any difference to anything else.
I don't regard British intelligence reports as any more reliable than what the Chinese government says. Similar level of unreliable bollocks going on previous efforts.
So what do you count as reliable?
Recall that the efficacy of the AZ vaccine in the under 55s in the U.K. study was 62%. I know people are thinking 90% prevention of symptomatic infections, but this was not the case. Prevention of admissions and deaths is higher and welcome, buts some of those cases will be vaccinated. I see nothing unusual about that.
Not seeing the high rise in admissions, Bolton is definitely rising, but these are reported as not being vaccinated ans still less than predicted. Bedfordshire not showing any increase. Fingers crossed but I am optimistic.
As for Step 4, less optimistic. I expect some fudge that means some action but not complete return to full contact. I’m not party to that decision, but I do review and contribute to some of the materials used for decision making. Data not dates to a great when the data is in your favour...
So what do you count as reliable?
In the case of SARS 2, not a lot. Very similar viruses have been circulating for a while and not being successful. This one is successful, the exact departure point I doubt we'll ever know. However blaming and finger pointing isn't going to go well.
Spanish flu would be better named American flu.
Hi TiRed. Can I ask a stupid question? Why doesn't the body develop immunity to the chimpanzee virus used as a vector to carry the viral RNA into the cell nucleus?
I know it can't replicate but is it just that a sufficient amount is injected that it doesn't really matter how primed the immune system is?
Anyone else had a leaflet through about Ivermectin?
Looks like some muppet has the funds to push an unproven medicine for the treatment of covid onto the gullible. Looks like the Great Barrington Declaration might have shares in this drug...
As for Step 4, less optimistic. I expect some fudge that means some action but not complete return to full contact.
This. The date is now politically very hard to shift. Get ready for Step 5 later in the year for removal of measures kept after Step 4. If they have any sense, they won’t suggest a date for Step 5, and will suggest that it will be dependent on what happens internationally (ie. not our fault gov).
Can I ask a stupid question? Why doesn’t the body develop immunity to the chimpanzee virus used as a vector to carry the viral RNA into the cell nucleus?
It does. The important part is that it’s not fully neutralising after fist exposure. Booster A vaccines might need another carrier virus. The Sputnik vaccine deliberately chooses to use two different viruses. J&J uses one dose.
We are also interested in whether dosing antibodies will have an effect on vaccines. Neutralising at the spike protein may change the seroconversion. It may enhance in some circumstances. Immunology is utterly fantastic.
WRT hospital admissions, it’s noticeable that whilst hospital admissions are rising, the number in hospital with cv is still falling.
As for Step 4, less optimistic. I expect some fudge that means some action but not complete return to full contact.
This. The date is now politically very hard to shift. Get ready for Step 5 later in the year for removal of measures kept after Step 4. If they have any sense, they won’t suggest a date for Step 5, and will suggest that it will be dependent on what happens internationally (ie. not our fault gov).
I'm pretty happy with that, if proper support is put in place for any sectors unable to open.
WRT hospital admissions, it’s noticeable that whilst hospital admissions are rising, the number in hospital with cv is still falling.
Not sure if you're getting what we had in Australia, but once lockdown reduced people went nuts and all the emergency presentations went up, elective surgery re-started, etc, etc, so while it's a totally different case-mix it got very busy indeed.
In the case of SARS 2, not a lot. Very similar viruses have been circulating for a while and not being successful. This one is successful, the exact departure point I doubt we’ll ever know. However blaming and finger pointing isn’t going to go well.
Spanish flu would be better named American flu.
Then it's a waste of a discussion isn't it, of you don't count any source as being reliable enough to form an opinion from.
It's not exactly finger pointing either, it's being open to discussing a wide reaching investigation of potential causes for something that has killed over three and a half million people so far. How else will lessons ever be learned. It's not about blame so much as making sure this never happens again which is impossible if we don't try and learn as much as we can.
I know what you're saying about reliability of sources but at the end of the day us plebs can only go off the information available to us and it doesn't mean we point blank can't discuss it. The Salisbury nerve poisoning incident killed only a handful of people not millions yet nobody claimed racism when the authorities pinned the blame on Russia without hard evidence.
Not sure what you mean by your comment on Spanish flu, that's what it's called regardless of where it started, I never mentioned it either?
Guangdong province (numerous cities) reacts to cases
I needed to go to Guangzhou to our consulate. Looks like I haveo fly all the way to Beijing now
if proper support is put in place for any sectors unable to open
A big “if”. And I agree. But my big worry is places being “allowed to open” but not being able to do so and break even, due to ongoing measures and people acting to reduce spread/hospitalisations/deaths and new strains due to “personal choice”. The worst thing that could happen now is whole sectors being expected to operate without government financial help when the reality is that their trade is still seriously restricted by the ongoing pandemic (despite being allowed to be “open”).
Five mile walk to the vaccination centre yesterday for my second jab. Returned by train - a train that had passed through Bolton before getting to me. Viewer discretion advised for the more anxious among you. There may be trouble ahead...
[img] 
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What's the issue? You're on the train too so you're part of the problem 🤣
Bloke at the front looks like he wants to batter you.
What’s the issue? You’re on the train too so you’re part of the problem
Like a motorist sat in a jam and moaning about the traffic.
Everyone who's face is in shot is wearing a mask and almost all the windows are open. I think it's about as good as one could expect on a busy train.
The Salisbury nerve poisoning incident killed only a handful of people not millions yet nobody claimed racism when the authorities pinned the blame on Russia without hard evidence.
A lot of people did actually:
Bloke at the front looks like he wants to batter you
But realises it would be unwise. You can see from the camera angle that Monty is quite tall and in that train I reckon he's ducking. You can't see the wild man of the north look. As others have said, windows open and masks mostly over noses - all good. Don't do that in Paris Monty.
Read this page (page 6, it's no longer possible to link pages, only page 1) on the original Salisbury thread, Airvent:
You'll note I showed the same reserve towards anti-Russian propaganda as I do towards anti-Chinese Covid propaganda. Or anti-anywhere else propaganda for that matter.
I don't know if any of you watched Merkel and Macron live a few minutes ago, I feel in good hands.
