HERV's are a fascinating thing which we have little understanding of.
No one knows why they are there or what impact if any they have caused in the past, speculation runs from being resonating for accelerated evolution right out to aliens.
It's interesting
NS – I’m so sorry.
Hopefully in time things will get better.
One thing I felt was that I wasn’t improving, however friends and people who hadn’t seen me for a while, did see an improvement.
Thanks Bunnyhop.
Your "energy bank" analogy is a very appropriate description - seems to hit me a couple of days later if I overdo it & drain my energy bank.
Sorry if this has been covered in the previous ~700 pages...
I had an out of body experience yesterday when I engaged with an anti vaxer... Wow, what an eye opener...
One of their 'points' was, about the death rate being falsified/exaggerated. My understanding is deaths within 28 days of a positive test are counted towards the total. Does this include situations which are clearly not Covid related but do include a sub 28 day positive test e.g. being run over by a bus?
I know the question sounds silly but someone on here will know.
Ta.
Does this include situations which are clearly not Covid related but do include a sub 28 day positive test e.g. being run over by a bus?
Death-certs completed by a doc will say (cause of death a) Interstitial pneumonitis, (or whatever you died from), and then there's a box for contributory factors where a doc might write COVID19 and/or Diabetes If you're hit by a bus, your likely as not going to end up in A&E, where a couple of docs will agree you're dead and will say something like Your heart stopped, or your brain was a big pile of mush. They might also say what caused this. there's a part of the form that says if there's anything that the patient was suffering from at the time. That may get filled in as noting that you'd had a positive COVID test, but only if the doc completing the death Cert knew it.
That may get filled in as noting that you’d had a positive COVID test, but only if the doc completing the death Cert knew it.
That's interesting, as the "being hit by a bus within 28 of a positive test" is a common line with the Covid minimisers, claiming it inflates the death rate.
There's something like 2 of these out of 130,000 deaths, whereas there are certainly thousands of covid deaths that took more than 28d after positive test and therefore are not counted.
Is there any way of knowing which vaccine you will receive at each vaccine centre?
My Dr has just suggested to me that I should consider switching to a different vaccine for my second jab, after having such a prelonged adverse reaction to my first AZ jab.
One of their ‘points’ was, about the death rate being falsified/exaggerated. My understanding is deaths within 28 days of a positive test are counted towards the total.
People confuse the surveillance metric with the certified deaths. If you look at...
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
...both are reported.
My understanding is the people dying within 28 days metric is to give you something that is more timely, so useful when responding to a pandemic. It's accepted a few might be included that weren't actually COVID related. Deaths are then certified afterwards (which can take weeks/months).
If you didn't do this it would be a bit like having a speedo that reported your speed a week ago.
There’s something like 2 of these out of 130,000 deaths, whereas there are certainly thousands of covid deaths that took more than 28d after positive test and therefore are not counted.
I suspect you're right on the first point.
Curious on the second - my understanding was that timescales from positive test to hospital to death, certainly at the start, meant that if you were going to die of it you'd be gone in 28 days, but presumably as treatment has improved that has presumably stretched to over 28 days?
I've countered the "hit by a bus" argument with my own "all those reaching 29 days" counter argument, but was never sure if I was correct.
Is there any way of knowing which vaccine you will receive at each vaccine centre?
Yes, if you book through your GP they'll be able to book you into the appropriate slot if you discuss it with them. (presuming the clinic is available to book)
Surprises me actually the govt/TV news get away with reporting the < 28 days metric when talking about the total. Certified is currently 152,068 (updated 14th May).
There are people who have been in hospital for over a year, and still might not make it through. The 28 days thing is a useful cut off to have a metric to follow to understand what is happening as regards the pandemic, it is not a magic number
IIRC 'more or less' on r4 concluded that for those that were miscounted as covid related there were others that fell outside the 28 days or weren't recorded as covid related for some other reason and the difference was in the noise. Not if it's a loved one of course but you get the underlying idea I hope. The number is pretty close.
Incidentally more or less has just restarted. Wales are winning the vaccination race apparently.
My sons class has a positive case, so hes back home for 10 days - noooooooooooo!!!
When is half term timbers?
Surprisingly (given I'm 47) had a text inviting me to get my second jab a month earlier earlier than the standard 12 weeks gap, ~8 weeks after my first OxAZ jab that left me properly wrecked ~2 weeks and then not partially feeling great during a week of annual leave just after.
Right now I'm inclined to ignore the text and try to get something in early July, as a longer gap seems to give better OxAZ protecton; I'm worried about the second jab knocking me out and messing up my postponed holiday to see family in Prestatyn in mid June when I'm currently planning to do my biggest outdoor road bike climb to date; Southampton's and Prestatyn's +ve Covid cases are currently low; the only time I'm around others is keeping my distance at work and keeping my distance when doing small food shops.
Yet to hear anything official at work, but I've read online that despite the Indian strain concerns, Royal Mail provisionally plans to get posties van sharing from 21st June. Currently I'm not impressed by this plan, on a personal (as I won't have had 2+ weeks after my second jab, but there's talk that OxAZ needs 5+ weeks after the second jab to be as fully effective as it will get) or national level (wide range of age groups, at different points in jab schedule, some posties won't be working with same van sharer each day so increase risk etc.).
When is half term timbers?
Next week, all our plans are now up in the air 😳
We are quite close to Bedford which is a hotspot, - and for Graham!
I know many of vulnerable are vaccinated now, but having kids isolating from school, it feels like November all over again
Yep, Bedford is a covid plague pit at the moment, thankfully we are a little bit away from there. No positives in the school yet.....
Thanks everyone.
So it's a bit of a rough KPI, compromised but betterer than absolute data that runs too late to be useful for active management? 'Rough' in that the +/- 28 days is estimated to offset each other. Someone mentioned a net +2, where did that come from?
The 152k 'certified' stat up there ^, where does that come from pls?
This was the first time I've engaged with a rabid antivaxer and I was stunned at the way the 'discussion' progressed... Suffice to say, primary reason for the global conspiracy seems to be depopulation driven by nasty billionaire's...
Assuming ~90% of the population are eventually vaccinated, those billionaires are going to be struggling for a client base... 🙄
Logic not required here...
The 152k ‘certified’ stat up there ^, where does that come from pls?
It's on the ukgov daily dashboard. Comes from death registrations with COVID mentioned on the death certificate.
Ta 👍
So 10-19 year olds have highest infection rates, remind me again where people are in confined spaces with no masks?
Analysis of the India variant
Page 11 in the PDF
So does that data show that the rates of infections, admissions, ICU and deaths is roughly the same whether vaccinated or not?
Hopefully I've completely misunderstood
Too small of a snapshot of data to draw any conclusions at all from.
@neiloxford, not sure what conclusion we can draw from the data as the numbers are small e.g. deaths after 2 doses is 2 out of 177
Might be easier to consider that data roughly as "under 30" (no vaccination yet), "under 55" (probably one vaccination), and "over 55" (both).
What it implies to me is that once vaccinated you're not really any more likely than anyone under 30 to be affected by the virus to the degree that it kills you or puts you in hospital. It's not a panacea but compared to a year ago where >70 or hospital visit pretty much implied death, it's a promising result.
I'm not sure either, surely you have a number that either didn't get infected as a result of vaccination, or experienced symptoms mild enough that no test was taken.
I think too early to draw conclusions but good that it is published.
I expect it will be updated in the next release.
Also, I do not think it should be used in isolation to draw conclusions.
remind me again where people are in confined spaces with no masks?
Our secondary schools are still in masks. All teens should be in schools. It’s idiotic to have removed that measure (yes space and ventilation also matter).
Yep, all school kids at my daughter's secondary are still in masks too, in class and moving around.
Ours have masks off in classrooms and in the playground now although all windows are open in the classrooms. Jnr is pleased the weather has taken a turn toward warm, as he no longer needs a coat.
In other new the revelation is out that border control has been worse than feared: 20million passengers into the UK in 2020 with 1.5m entering during the January lockdown. Holy smokes.
So hospital admissions are rising again.
Is there any data on who/where this is?
I feel a horrendous sense of deja vu.......
The govt covid data site is pretty good. The map alone gives a good indication of where it’s all kicking off...and it is staring to spread more widely.
I’m very lucky - there are no Covid patients in hospital in my area.
@danstw13
Don't know on the demographic segmentation but I hope your deja vu is misplaced. I personally think it might be; we know that cases can't really be used as a true measure because # cases is a function of # tests as well as prevalence. Do no tests = no positive cases = pandemic over is clearly a logical fallacy, and may be the same in the other directions
Hospitalizations is a harder number, but I wonder if because there is capacity people are being treated now that may not have previously been treated. Is it the same threshold for admission now as it was when we were at risk of being over run. 'You'll probably be OK but we have a bed and it won't harm you to be observed for a few days' Are people being admitted who are less ill/for less invasive treatment? Short of a scoring scale of illness, the proxy I guess is outcome - and are deaths rising in the same way?
As per my excellent former colleague's blog (or do I mean ex-colleague' s excellent blog - both senses work) we are at a point of inflexion that looks very much like where we were in September. You can see that the black line (deaths) has dropped below the prediction based on previous ratios where cases -> hosp -> deaths (ie vaccines work) and you can't read anything into what looks like an increase in death rates, that's where a log scale misleads - 5 becoming 7 is not significant (nws every death is significant)
Given the predictable delay between cases -> hosp -> deaths, where H -> D lags by a week or two, the next fortnight will be very informative. Then we'll see whether it was deja vu or not.
https://protonsforbreakfast.wordpress.com/
Surely given the lowering efficacy of the vaccine against variants, the number who have yet to receive a vaccine and the sheer exponential rate of potential increase we will be back where we were it will just take a few weeks longer? Ie much lower rates affecting much much higher numbers? Hopefully not
Obsessing with the current variants of concern, rather than acknowledging that allowing cases to rise before we complete the vaccination programme could result in a new variant with characteristics that our current plans don’t allow for, is the mistake I fear is currently being made. Same goes for allowing in new variants from elsewhere at this point. We are so close to being in a position most countries would envy… we should get there before ditching mask use and remaining social distancing measures (some already dropped probably need to come back as well, sadly, for another month or two, while we get people vaccinated).
This is another piece of useful analysis.
It shows that hospitals in the North West now have more young people being admitted as a % of total admissions. ( Due to the vaccine reducing cases in the older generation ) ( Bolton is unavailable )
It is interesting that a lot of hospitalisations have always been people under the age of 65.
When you combine this information with the growth rate of cases in Bolton, and % of cases resulting in hospitalisations, the forecasting models might show the NHS getting overwhelmed this summer if we fully open back up in June.
( Death rate would be significantly lower due to vaccination of the older generations and so would not be the reason for slowing the opening up )
The solution would be to delay a little longer for more people to have received two doses.
( They should be able to estimate what percentage of the population need to have received two doses )
% is potentially misleading, without the absolutes alongside. I know NW cases are increasing but still the numbers are low (although increasing fast and yes grains of rice on a chessboard style, we cannot ignore)
Also as per other post above, i wonder if the % of younger people is skewed due to availability as much as need. There were also more younger people being offered beds last summer (as a % at least!) when numbers were lower overall, hence why not. When the chips start to go down older people who are more likely to be in greater need are prioritised again.
@munkyboy, kelvin; thus far (touches woods) variants don't seem to be escaping the vaccine to any great extent. So far they have worked, in the next couple of weeks we can see if they're continuing to work against new (Indian) variant, longer term who knows...... it's a page turner for sure. Yes, it's a numbers game and if infections spiral (rice / chessboard again!) then even if the % mortality is lower due to vaccinations working to a full or partial extent, the numbers will rise.
Back last year there was a lot of chat about outcomes based on ethnicity. Did we ever get to the bottom of that as a factor or was it more about socio-economic factors in the end?
Thanks for all the graphs and links. Some really interesting points.
I agree theotherjonv, people are likely being admitted with more mild cases due to improved capacity.
By 21st June another 9 million will have received 2nd dose, so 60% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.
By 5th July another 6 million, so 70% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.
By 19th July another 6 million, so 80% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.
By 2nd August another 6 million, so 90% of the adult population will have received 2 doses.
This assumes people keep coming forward at the same rate which i think we should expect.
( I am very glad we have high vaccine uptake in the UK ! )
If there is a delay, it would only be 4 to 6 weeks.
Boris is an optomist, I do not think he will delay.
We will still have some hospitalisations and deaths but the flu did that before Covid and we did not close down society.
Obsessing with the current variants of concern, rather than acknowledging that allowing cases to rise before we complete the vaccination programme could result in a new variant with characteristics that our current plans don’t allow for, is the mistake I fear is currently being made. Same goes for allowing in new variants from elsewhere at this point. We are so close to being in a position most countries would envy… we should get there before ditching mask use and remaining social distancing measures (some already dropped probably need to come back as well, sadly, for another month or two, while we get people vaccinated).
Couldn't agree more.
First class closure in Madame's school and the first case where there might have been contamination between members of the class though it's unknown if the transmission was in the masked and ventillated classroom environment, in the canteen or even out of school.
There's clearly a lot of it about and it's only the progressing vaccination programme that's keeping people out of hospital which means we can live more or less normally.
Did we ever get to the bottom of that as a factor or was it more about socio-economic factors in the end?
After adjusting for other factors, ethnicity is not an important covariate.
We know that the vaccine protects against B.1.617.2. This variant will replace B.1.1.7 by mid June, something I predicted three weeks ago. Bolton is a bit of a marker for unlocking with a shift in age grouping. But the ethnic breakdown of cases is largely the Indian communities still as it spreads from introduction events. To neil's graph, young people have been consistently admitted to hospital, but they slipped under the radar since they were not dying.
