@bunnyhop you know those oranges that have been spike with cloves? Well that’s the virus. The cloves are the spike protein that hooks the virus onto the surface of our cells.
Of the vaccines:
Pfizer and Moderna give immediate instructions to make the cloves. The information is not incorporated into human DNA
AZ and J&J give the DNA inside another harmless virus that then codes to make the cloves. This DNA is incorporated into human DNA (like a huge amount of junk DNA already there).
Novovax and Sanofi/GSK give the cloves. The novovax one strings them together to make little flowers.
Sinovac gives weakened virus.
Wow! Thanks TiRed.
It's so interesting, yet so complicated.
I think all the scientists are amazing.
A reminder that there were choices, and and at many steps along the way, “we” made the wrong ones in the UK… this was one of the biggest early on…
https://twitter.com/bbcr4today/status/1238390547783528448?s=21
At least our part time PM was on the case…
https://twitter.com/michaellcrick/status/1396404772270346247?s=21
Although last year the story was he was already paid, and had spent, the money, while he was scheming to become PM after his referendum win. He was working on it while neglecting his PM role, during a pandemic, because it was late and paid for.
Make the data fit the policy …
Downing Street leaned on Public Health England not to publish crucial data on the spread of the new Covid variant in schools, documents seen by the Observer have suggested. Scientists, union officials and teachers said that the lack of transparency was “deeply worrying”.
The focus of their anger concerns the pre-print of a PHE report that included a page of data on the spread of the India Covid-19 variant in schools. But when the report was published on Thursday 13 May, the page had been removed. It was the only one that had been removed from the pre-print. Days later, the government went ahead with its decision to remove the mandate on face coverings in English schools.
I think all the scientists are amazing
Blushing now. But the truth is you only really understand things clearly if you can explain to those without the deep expertise. The principles of evolutionary biology, epidemiology, immunology, vaccinology, they aren’t complex. The details certainly are (and sometimes largely unknown).
Replacement of a viral strain by another that has sharper elbows and can spread a little faster, is entirely expected. There will be another along in a few months. We have hints of which ones seem to escape the protection from the vaccine a d past infection. Those cloves can change their surface very easily, whilst still remaining sticky to human cells. We make antibodies to coat them and stop sticking, but sometimes those antibodies stop sticking and can’t get in the way. Not yet, but the South African strain has led the viral charge with one nasty change.
And before anyone gets upset at the idea of the Police enforcing laws, I don’t care
The police should be upholding the law, enforcement is the court's job (mainly). The problems creep in when PC Blogs makes up laws or interprets guidance as law. If you or I were that incompetent we would expect to be sacked for misconduct.
The police should be upholding the law, enforcement is the court’s job (mainly). The problems creep in when PC Blogs makes up laws or interprets guidance as law. If you or I were that incompetent we would expect to be sacked for misconduct.
Apologies for using the wrong terminology and causing you to go off on a tangent
One lockdown sinner repents. Well perhaps not, but he has admitted to errors in his understanding of the COVID epidemic. As I said many times, the Gompertz equation is a fine descriptor of an emergent epidemic, but the key determinants (transmission and susceptibility) are correlated.
“The biggest one was declaring, in a somewhat belligerent way, that things would end in the United States by the end of August. I feel really bad about that,” he said. “I don’t think scientists should make declarations like that. It was a pugilistic, a combative argument. People said to me I was wrong, and I thought, I’m not going to back down. And it’s stupid. It was not the right way to behave.”
But he is a proper scientist.
So the clear communication is going well......
BBC News - Covid: People in surge areas warned 'stay local'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57232728
So the clear communication is going well……
BBC News – Covid: People in surge areas warned ‘stay local’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57232728/blockquote >Backdoor local lockdown as it's not just about staying local, also recommends not meeting indoors.
Guidance != law, so pretty sure the hospitality sector will give that a big finger.
My base office is meant to be in Leicester, never been in as they've been in some form of lockdown for 15 months now
you have to isolate during which one of Patels enforcers might knock on your door.
Just as long as it's not the hidwous witch herself.
Guidance != law, so pretty sure the hospitality sector will give that a big finger.
Back to the mistakes of early 2020.
Utterly pointless waste of text, if these areas had been following wider guidelines they wouldn't have the case rates they do, the places in the North West have been at the top of the case rates on a regular basis. Its got to be unambiguous and properly publicised. To be honest i think we're well beyond local lock downs, people will just go out of area or just ignore the advice.
I don't think the North will take another set of restrictions after last year, we had a couple of months at most without stringent restrictions in place. They didn't really make much difference, it was the national lockdowns and restrictions that brought the case rate down.
It's a complete farce. The relaxation was "irreversible" so now they need to reverse it, they have to pretend they aren't.
Have we got enough data in from Bolton yet to see if hospital admissions are responding to the increase in infection rates at a "manageable" level?
If vaccination has disrupted the number of admissions, this may not be as serious as infection rates suggest.
"IF" doing a lot of heavy lifting there
... still not been contacted about bringing second vaccination forward. It's booked for two weeks tomorrow which is the 12 week point, booked with the first vacc on the NHS site. So I'm not stressing, but it's not exactly what was communicated by Johnson 10 days ago
It was always the case that vaccination is expected to reduce admission and deaths, with a reduction in transmission being an added bonus. The opening up of Lockdown is predicated on that in some part, so you would expect to see cases going up, but relative inaction if admissions and deaths remain at a level which "protects the NHS". Only however, if new variants do not bypass the current/future vaccinations capability.
I suspect the next problem we'll see is a variant that renders current vaccinations ineffective and / or rising cases of Flu within Flu season which will add to the NHS burden.
It’s a complete farce. The relaxation was “irreversible” so now they need to reverse it, they have to pretend they aren’t.
AKA a U-Turn, who'd have thought...
Only however, if new variants do not bypass the current/future vaccinations capability.
Well we are offering up a huge "filter" of half vaccinated people for the virus to test itself against.
To the people waiting on second jabs, I'd advise getting pro-active. Nine weeks after my first AZ, I started making phone calls yesterday to find I'd vanished off the system. Now booked in for Sunday. My 79 year old London based father had a similar experience. We'd both organised our first jabs at GP text prompts (thus first jab only, not both booked simultaneously as with the NHS texts that came shortly afterwards). Neither of us are the worried well types who normally badger GP surgeries, which may be a factor.
Have we got enough data in from Bolton yet to see if hospital admissions are responding to the increase in infection rates at a “manageable” level?
Slight upturn in Bolton but below prediction, nothing in Bedfordshire or Blackburn. (yet) Admissions data on the govt. website is very lagged and I have yet to bash the most up to date NHS data. Public domain plots from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Is there a way to examine that data by age group TiRed?
Wondering, specifically, if the uptick in cases in Bedford is in younger people than the uptick in Bolton. Same goes for the (modest) uptick in admissions in Bolton... is there a way to see the age profile of that?
Interesting graphs. The messages from Bolton were older hospital admissions amongst the unvaccinated. Is there a difference in vaccine uptake in Bedford?
In unrelated issues, news from Bahrain about the Indian variant and the Sinopharm vaccine seems to suggest it isn’t a very good vaccine.
… still not been contacted about bringing second vaccination forward.
You're only being asked to have a 2nd vaccination earlier, if you're one of the priority groups. If you're an otherwise healthy person >50 there's probably no need to change from 12 weeks.
Is there a way to examine that data by age group TiRed?
Plenty are looking... I do not have all the age-breakdown data.
if you’re one of the priority groups. If you’re an otherwise healthy person >50 there’s probably no need to change from 12 weeks
AZ and 53 here, I've already been asked to book early. I've declined as I've already had COVID. I likely do not require the second injection. I booked the first through the NHS website, not my GP practice, if that makes a difference.
Mrs K got asked to come in for her second yesterday, about 7 weeks I think, she's 42 but is a Lupus patient.
Regarding Bolton in particular the case rate increase is in areas with low vaccine uptake which may result in higher hospital admission than in an area with a spike and higher vaccination rates. Bolton is probably worst case. Hopefully even with the vaccine uptake lower we'll still see relatively reduced admissions. The question about age above is also very relevant. Either way we're current a long way from NHS saturation in the region, last time Bolton rates were greater than 1000 per 100,000 population and many surrounding boroughs were at 800+, without a vaccine program, at the moment Bolton is 300ish with most surrounding boroughs sub 100. It's a very different playing field to last time this happened. Doesn't mean it won't get out of control again but the odds are stacked more in our favour this time with regard to minimising hospital admissions.
Thanks for the graphs again TiRed.
It’s a very different playing field to last time this happened. Doesn’t mean it won’t get out of control again but the odds are stacked more in our favour this time
And that's the government's dilemma, in many ways. How long do we ignore the warning signs before taking action when the vaccine should protect the NHS enough on a wider level.
And yes, I know the danger is the more it circulates the greater the risk of a vaccine evading mutation. But as a "pro-lockdown when necessary " kind of guy, the thing is going to be transmitting forever now - realistically, can we keep endlessly hitting the lockdown button - especially when we saw local lockdowns fail to be lifted throughout last year? They just didn't work.
realistically, can we keep endlessly hitting the lockdown button
If we can avoid this by containing infection while we finish of vaccinating our population, that we seem like a win to me. Might have to still get a proper travel quarantine put in place while other countries catch up of course.
If we can avoid this by containing infection while we finish of vaccinating our population, that we seem like a win to me. Might have to still get a proper travel quarantine put in place while other countries catch up of course.
Fair points I think.
So, who's betting on the next relaxations on 21st June?
In unrelated issues, news from Bahrain about the Indian variant and the Sinopharm vaccine seems to suggest it isn’t a very good vaccine.
Surprised? I'm not.
Usual cheap Chinese copies and untrustworthy data coming out of China.
So, who’s betting on the next relaxations on 21st June?
I’m now half expecting all the “relaxations” to happen then, but a whole new swath of contradictory “advice” to be issued, and people effected by the virus “blamed” for either not following the advice, or knowing someone not yet vaccinated.
The Bolton admissions data that is due to be released on Thursday will show admissions are increasing. The important point is whether they are increasing as quickly as the cases.
Clearly Bolton has more admissions than last week as discussed in this article...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57242368
The next question will be whether deaths increase, and how quickly they increase. We will have to wait a couple of weeks for that to become clear.
I've asked this question on anotherthread but wonder if this might actually be the better place for it.
Like a lot of people, I’ve had the first jab and was given an appointment for round 2 12 weeks away.
They’re now asking me to come back early for that second jab.
However, figures from the bmj earlier this year suggest efficacy of 55% if the second jab is after 6 weeks and 81% if after 12 weeks.
Has anyone seen numbers for waits between 6 and 12 weeks?
Regarding lockdown easing and cases not causing as many hospitalisations/deaths - one thing I don't see being talked about is how long covid affects decision making. How is considered as a medical issue?
Are people with long covid hospitalised (I have no idea). And is it not more common in younger people? Is that because it would have killed an older person? if it is more common in younger folk but doesn't lead to hospitalisation, then is it not considered serious enough to keep the interventions? As basing lockdown easing on de-linking hospitalisations/deaths and numbers vaccinated (going older > younger) would not take it into consideration?
Quite a few ifs there!
Imagine having a ‘bank or energy’, which can be used for eg – work, play or just normal everyday things, then having to decide where that energy is used up, then it gives a little insight as to what your life maybe like.
That pretty much sums up how i've been for 10 weeks now, following my first AZ vaccine jab.
Tired, following on from your post.....
AZ and J&J give the DNA inside another harmless virus that then codes to make the cloves. This DNA is incorporated into human DNA (like a huge amount of junk DNA already there).
Is there any study on how this will effect the next generation? If it is incorporated into our dna, does this mean we can pass the code to our children? Could they be given partial code if they only get given half a sequence of dna from both parents? Tin foil hat on but could there be repercussions from getting random bits of foreign dna from either parents?
Cheers in advance, surprised singletrack towers hasn’t started putting ads on your posts, just because they know how read they are on here ( tin foil hat off!)
M
NS - I'm so sorry.
Hopefully in time things will get better.
One thing I felt was that I wasn't improving, however friends and people who hadn't seen me for a while, did see an improvement.
I'm 53, had first AZ on 18 March at local GP surgery, after receiving text ping.
Just got text to book second jab, which is now set for next week, which will be about 11 weeks after the first.
Booking first jab required phoning GP and nearly 30 mins in the phone queue. Big improvement this time, with a link to booking site, all sorted in a minute or two.
Local area, Ryedale, just had our first case today after 10 day stetch of zero cases (pop about 55K).
Tcomc1000
The vital dna is not included into anyone's genome.
The virus like most human viruses (retroviruses like hiv are one of the very few that can embed it's coding into the human genome) can infect the cells and induce replication of more viruses which then trigger the immune response.
It is extremely unlikely that the viruses used here could induce the viral genome to be incorporated into a humans dna. No more than a normal cold virus could. They do not contain the proteins that allow the back coding like hiv does.
I wouldn't worry about it at all and the mrna vaccines do not either. If it was as simple as that you would be seeing some truly unbelievable advances in medicine through gene therapies.
Cheers Tired.....
Well not really-I am now running out of excuses to the wife who wants a third child and your Sir, were my only hope!:)
M
I am now running out of excuses to the wife who wants a third child and your Sir, were my only hope!:)
Tell her to be careful what she wishes for.
A colleague was persuaded to try for a third. First scan revealed it was triplets. I think they had to take him straight from gynaecology to resus!
Don’t even joke about it, god I would check myself straight in for basket weaving!
And apologies and thanks to graham for the reply:)
Was Graham, but as stated there is no integration, the virus dna floats around in the cell nucleus. A nice article below on wiki on past integrations, and how some endogenous viral reactivation is noted in some species (koalas), but only speculation in humans. The AZ and other adenovirus vectors cannot replicate and can’t be incorporated into germline dna. They are really just capsules to carry the spike dna. Not that it should matter, there’s already enough in there to be concerned! Isn’t ignorance bliss?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogenous_retrovirus
