Lot of disaster fetishists here I've come to realise.
Lots of disaster denialists too. I do think we could open up faster as things are going really well. But that does depend on the govt being able to react rapidly if things changed for the worst and they’ve shown little ability for that thus far.
But that does depend on the govt being able to react rapidly if things changed for the worst and they’ve shown little ability for that thus far.
True, but in fairness the way we would see whether rates are increasing is by measuring the rate and see whether it's increased, and so the feedback loop is not whether something's happening, it's whether it's already happened. Bit like my wife and the heating.
Me: must stop the wife putting the heating on now it's May
Later: I'm getting warm. I wonder if....
Later still: bugger, it's already on and has been for half an hour. Is there any way to get that gas back?
TBH this is mostly about the crappy reporting. There will be a boom this quarter, almost certainly, but that just means rapid growth. It doesn’t mean it’ll cancel out the shrink/recession.
I don’t think I’ve seen a forecast that has us reaching our pre-pandemic economic ‘size’ before the end of 2022.
Although I’ve also not (last 4 weeks or so) recently seen forecasts for both the size of the economy and unemployment levels that are quite as doom laden some are expecting. There was certainly a lot of headlines last year people latched onto and have stuck with, but normal rules quite often don’t always apply at the minute.
Not trying to ignore the real and large scale harm caused, it’s definitely happened to a lot of people, including a number on the forum. But is it going to be as bad as some are expecting?
In 2019 70-80% of my households income was derived from events. It's been something of a shit show although we have been very lucky to retain employment. But, one of the events my partner works on put tickets on sale this week and sold what would normally take 20 weeks worth in 6 hours. Theres still some huge risks involved with potential future waves and limitations on how much income can be generated due to the capacity restructuring they're currently working to, but there is a pent up demand that will drive some economic activity.
theotherjonv, with the fastest plausible doubling rate at least two weeks, we’d have lots of time to respond. The problem last autumn was the govt arguing with the scientists for weeks and weeks and preferring to pile up the bodies instead.
Just anecdotally, daughter’s school has just announced it’s first positive test since they went back. The virus is still out there, kids and any parents under 40 won’t be vaccinated yet.
There's another group too, who might they be...schools are safe, schools are safe, no evidence of spread in schools
The problem last autumn was the govt
You could have stopped there. The government is responsible for lot of the problems we are facing due to their appalling leadership.
And talk of economic growth now is measured against the position we were in this time last year, mid crash. Of course it will look good. But not pre pandemic good.
theotherjonv, with the fastest plausible doubling rate at least two weeks, we’d have lots of time to respond.
No way will the govt move away from the 5-week gap, small steps exit from lockdown now. At the time they described it as 4 weeks to see the impact, a week to crunch the numbers and make a decision.
Lot of disaster fetishists here I’ve come to realise.
This thread started with that exact accusation levelled at people who were concerned about this virus. How did things turn out?
The five-week decision cycle is one of the things that the government have got correct. It has been a very expensive lesson. The virus cares nor for the desired cycle time and there is a reason why things have gone the way they have. Both down as well as up. Epidemic time is not movie time. Two weeks now compared with the 18-month cycle. Patience is important. A lack of patience cost more than 25k lives over Christmas (and I am being conservative here).
The recent data on single dose Pfizer at 12 weeks has reinforced what I said previously. AZ probably could be a one dose vaccine (like J&J). Pfizer is definitely not in the 70+ age group.
From the BBC feed:
Sunday Times reports secondary school children to be offered single Pfizer dose from September.
Tired - why do you think the az vaccine could be one dose?
Is that based on an acceptable level of protection (~60%) after one dose.
Do you think the second dose increases protection duration? Or based on the need for potential booster doses the second dose might not be valuable?
Just interested in your thinking and reasoning.
I'm really interested in the mix and match studies going on at the moment as my feeling is that a mixed vaccination should give more varied protection hopefully meaning variant protection
Absolutely agree with the above, much better to come out slowly than risk it now. Yes, some businesses are going to not survive but if we trigger a 4th lockdown they wouldn't anyway and more would be put at risk. We're in our situation now due to decisions made last year, we cannot change them but we can learn from them.
Just spoken to my Dad, who lives in southern Oregon, USA.
They’ve just gone back into a form of lockdown due to a surge in cases https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-04-30/oregon-covid-surge-vaccine
45% of Oregon residents have one vaccine shot and 26% have had two.
Is this likely to happen here after May 17th?
There will be an increase. possibly a short, sharp surge, but it won't be bad enough to force another lockdown. Where we have to be incredibly careful is to make sure our underlying infection rates are as low as possible going into September/October. The last thing we want is to head into the winter with the virus and any new variants sitting in the population ready to run amok. It's why I'm so worried about everyone clamouring for foreign holidays and bringing back new variants. I've heard people saying that the NHS coped this winter so can cope again, completely ignoring that it only just coped and the fatigue from that superhuman effort means it may not cope again with the same pressures.
What we do now has serious effects for what happens in 6 months time.
Looking at the German numbers I can see no way out of this until children are vaccinated. The incidence in 0-5 is 141, 5-15 230 and 15-34 232. Beyond that it goes down much as you'd expect in relation to the proportion of the age groups vaccinated.
https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/karte-sars-cov-2-in-deutschland-landkreise/
As soon as we open up the virus will take off again in the non-vaccinated age group and as it mutates within that age group a variant that can infect vaccinated people risks appearing.
There's also likely to be poor vaccine uptake when we get down to the youngest adults as people do their own personal risk : reward calculations (as seen already on this thread). And the question "would you vaccinate your kids?". Happily I won't have to make that decision , junior is old enough to decide for himself and I'm pretty sure will be queueing up as soon as he can.
Hopefully teenage school age kids can be vaccinated late August, early September. I don’t picture primary school age kids getting it this year, beyond perhaps those with pre-existing conditions.
EDIT: Oh, and in answer to your question, yes.
Anyone got anything more up to date than this from 23/3 (I've found more recent articles but they refer back to the same info):
on the state of vaccine trials on children in various age groups?
@TiRed what are you thoughts on the triple variant from Maharashtra that now has a toe hold over here?
Are we all doomed?
with the fastest plausible doubling rate at least two weeks
I'd like to see the evidence for that 'plausible' but OK, some whataboutery.
We know what exponential means, we also know there's an incubation rate before things start to show either as symptoms or on testing.
So by the time we see things showing, then it's already happening / happened. And if you wait 2-3 weeks to see if that has doubled, then you're already into the next cycle and more are going to show again.... and then you have to stamp down. A week lost is a month to repair.
So do we look at the tests on a weekly basis and react then? Open up this week, and then if they have increased or even flattened (potentially showing an inflexion point) then lock down again?
Same as the decision to open up can't be rushed, the decision to lock down again shouldn't be, pissing people about is almost as harmful to the businesses that eg: have bookings, etc. to manage as staying in restrictions for 2 more weeks to be certain that opening is the right thing to do.
I've criticised the Gov time and again, but this time I think they're getting it right. Maybe overcautious, but the risk-reward suggests caution is good. Don't chuck it away now through impatience.
Is that based on an acceptable level of protection (~60%) after one dose.
This. The minimum requirement for protection is 50%. AZ achieves this after only one dose. Pfizer does not. There is an age-related response for sure, but the benchmark for a vaccine is met at one dose.
what are you thoughts on the triple variant from Maharashtra that now has a toe hold over here?
The combination of mutations has probably already been noted in the UK already. Note that there are over 500 recorded spike protein mutations, having multiple variants is nothing exceptional. The UK variant has 22 changes from Wild Type. I don't think we are doomed, but there is evidence that at least one strain is taking off in the UK (in frequency) against a falling background level of infection. We are looking harder at this virus than any previously. It should come as no surprise that we are seeing things.
We are not doomed.
Cheers, i assumed it would be that.
Do you think the government would dare though based on the populations assessment of efficacy between the vaccinations? People will want the highest protection they can if offered
I’ve criticised the Gov time and again, but this time I think they’re getting it right.
This.
Do you think the government would dare though based on the populations assessment of efficacy between the vaccinations?
No, they've already bent the Pfizer label enough already. I personally would not be too concerned about giving a second dose to those who have previously had the infection. these boosters are potent is would appear (which is how natural coronavirus infections work too).
Ta
The roadmap is the most sensible thing the government has allowed itself to be talked into, and the five-week staging is pretty much spot on. There is also an argument that giving the NHS the chance to vaccinate down to 35-40s before the gates are thrown open will also be a massive advantage going into the summer.
Everything is geared to being in a good place from September onwards so that any booster campaign is well underway before numbers start to rise properly again.
At this point last time around we were about to 'eat out to help out' and have unrestricted mixing even in areas where the virus had not been properly suppressed. End result was problems almost immediately in some regions.
Lot of
disaster fetishistsrealists here I’ve come to realise.
FTFY
At this point last time around we were about to ‘eat out to help out’
I'd forgotten about that. Amazing when you look back 🤦🏻♂️
At this point last time around we were about to ‘eat out to help out’ and have unrestricted mixing even in areas where the virus had not been properly suppressed
Well, on 21st June we may well be back to that, without the government incentives and with the under 30s not yet vaccinated? The impact should be a lot less this time around, but I'm still a little nervous about how the great British public will deal with any remaining social distancing guidance as we rush towards the summer holiday season, and then into what I guess will be anticipated to be a normal return to school and university in the autumn.
A local car boot sale reopened this morning, just a fairly small one compared to some round here. We rode past at 8.30ish - 1/2 mile queues in all directions (and it's next to a busy traffic light controlled crossroads), they were waving people away as the were full, but you could see there was no chance of anyone being able to social distance. I feel for the organisers, but just because you can doesn't mean that you should.
The minimum requirement for protection is 50%. AZ achieves this after only one dose. Pfizer does not.
@tired I thought the Pfizer/Moderna was 80% effective after a single dose?
And...
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n979
My understanding of the Israel data is a that single dose results in MORE infections in first week (assumed to be either behaviour change, and/or exposure to infected people when getting the vaccine), the same as non-vaccinated in second week, and hugely better protection in the third week. So it depends how you cut the data as to whether you declare it effective or not. There’s no good data over a much longer period (that I’ve seen) yet. So, a hunch as to whether single shot useful. Just like the hunch to extend the period between shots that was taken here in the winter (that seems to have been called correctly in hindsight).
The hunch I’d go for? Single shot to cover as many teenage school age kids as possible before September return… and then offer them boosters once they are “spare”, even if that is months later.
@rotorstern
@mrkebowski You would think these people from point 2 only have to look at what is happening in India right now to see the consequences of not having strict lockdowns.
To see how these people “think” you only need to visit any of the Vaccination posts on the NHS FB page where the anti lockdown/anti vax movement are blaming the crisis in India on the vaccine itself.
PHE data shows that in the 70+ there is no protection from one dose of Pfizer at the 12week time point. I’m sure the boost will improve matter dramatically. But the protection from one injection wanes. I think the four week gap was prudent. The AZ vaccine has impressive single dose efficacy.
Near term protection of at least 50%, the minimum for registration, is noted for both after a single dose, regardless of olwhen one starts the clock post dose.
Is that no protection from symptomatic infection, or no protection from serious disease/death? Any stats on younger age groups? I had a pretty strong reaction to the Moderna so feel like I should have a reasonable level of protection, but my second jab is scheduled 12 weeks after the first, when does the protection start to diminish?
I had a pretty strong reaction to the Moderna so feel like I should have a reasonable level of protection
That “feeling” doesn’t match the science, IIRC. Hopefully someone else better able to explain it to you will do so… but my lay persons understanding is that an obvious “reaction”, or not, doesn’t correlate with level of protection given.
It’s protection against needing a test and subsequently being pcr-positive. So really symptomatic infection.
....So hopefully still a good level of protection against hospitalisation/death?
All the info on that here:
….So hopefully still a good level of protection against hospitalisation/death?
Oh yes... ANY antibodies on board before the virus comes (and it will) are protective against morbidity. This is what really matters most. Natural coronavirus infections provide a boost in antibodies on a regular basis. I don't think this one will be very different over time. It's just the first experience has been a little different to the others for most of us (babies and infants aside).
Got a text today to go online and book second jab. All booked for tomorrow. Exactly 10 weeks since first.
I'll need to start looking after my grandson soon to help my son/ his partner out.
Still very nervous about doing so (not for me but for my old mum) but will make sure my son/partner do at least a couple of tests a week, as am I already. Can't practically test my grandson that much (just over a year old) so im figuring on testing those around him as a test by proxy if that makes sense?
On top of that I want mum to have a relationship with her great grandson. She's hardly seen him at all.other than in pics/ videos. Ditto myself.
How can we be able to travel abroad safely this summer?
For example, if one wants to visit some resort in Tenerife, which will also be visited by other holiday makers from many different countries, all mixing in restaurants, cafes, bars and accommodation. Surely it's a recipe for different variants to take hold, no matter how much distancing, mask wearing or hand washing that goes on.
People may be travelling from say India or Brazil via other countries (not directly as this may not be allowed) to get to a destination of their choice.
It's not something I'm prepared to chance.
I'm seeing far too many people already thinking this pandemic is over and deciding there aren't any rules anymore (eg going into each others houses, not wearing masks, going out in massive groups).
Pleased to hear social distancing is likely to be sacked off in June, I'd be pissed though if it had to come back because folk want to go abroad on holiday and import it back into the country.
^^ I'm going to find it really difficult to be physically close to people tbh. It's become my default. It has to change though so I'll need to adapt.
Yes, hoping we don't import a new variant at some stage. I'm just forcing myself to be optimistic about that as there is simply nothing I can do to change that situation.
^^ I’m going to find it really difficult to be physically close to people tbh. It’s become my default. It has to change though so I’ll need to adapt.
If you're happy with that then keep doing so, it'll still help the cause I suppose. Nobody will be forcing you to suddenly start seeing people again just those who want to will be allowed.
I’m going to find it really difficult to be physically close to people tbh. It’s become my default.
Had a bit of a wake up call today - saw a club mate by chance while out with the wife. Before the pandemic I had a couple of crashes that had already made me nervous about riding around other people, then social distancing kicked in. Even when club rides were allowed again last year I really couldn't see that riding in groups for 2-3 hours was a wise thing to be doing, especially as it was pretty obvious from private FB posts that some club mates were not following the "rules" for rides or their private lives, so it's nearly 2 years since I went on a club ride, or rode with more than one other trusted person.
He started asking me about how I was coping with things and when I might be back on club rides again, and the panicked and waffly answer I produced clearly didn't convince either of us. Certainly not him, as he works in mental health and really can't be fooled.
I clearly need to get my anxiety issues back under control
Everyone will take their own time to get back to being tolerant of people being close.
I didn't like it before hand so bloody hate it now. Don't mind people i know so much but it's the randoms i don't like, good job we rarely went to pubs and restaurants really.
Will no doubt be heading into London again but will be fine with wearing a mask (plus it saves the lovely London black snot that you get after a day)
