Italy only closed all non essential businesses last night.
In other news...condescending is up 500% across all forms of social media.
I saw an article somewhere yesterday estimating the real UK infection total to be around 100k.
Does anyone know where that’s from?
fella…
“Bent coppers!”
Does anyone know where that’s from?
probably an extrapolation from Whitty's estimated "between 35,000 and 50,000." six days ago
Rest of world is adopting a ‘Lock Down’ approach to completely starve out the virus and attempt total elimination- The ‘Chinese Model’
The UK approach is a controlled epidemic...
Also a gradual introduction of measure in an effort to give people time to adjust both mentally and practically.
I just hope I can still get to Halfords on Tuesday to pick up my smart trainer, cos I have in-store discount vouchers.
I'm surprised no one has said they have had it? To shock everyone I'm just getting over it, my son has had it already and my wife is getting over it. The symptoms vary massively between people. I had it very mild, wife had a temperature and is still feeling lethargic. I've got over that now. Now I'm on the self isolation. Son had it over a month ago at university so we send him out with surgical gloves on and face mask as not to give it to anyone else. If you get a dry cough and sore throat it's the start please isolate. The loss of lung capacity is scary, but not that bad, it's like having someone sitting on your chest.
BR
JeZ
There’s a thread for on that Jezzep.
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/have-any-of-us-actually-caught-the-coronavirus-yet-then/
Ahh, it was here https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/coronavirus-obey-rules-london-sadiq-khan-lockdown-a4391796.html
And not really based on anything beyond the 1% rate.
The Johnson & Cummings approach of last week … which I honestly believe (and fervently hope) the “grown ups” have managed to talk them out of this past week … of letting the spread happen quicker and wider here than any other country … risks cutting us off from other countries as they seek to close down the spread to save lives at home …
https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/1241456825238720514?s=21
If we follow Italy, how long before a total lockdown?
I've just seen on BBC news that they are debating in Parliament tomorrow new powers that could restrict movement. I wasn't fully listening so I need to watch/read it again. My guess by Wednesday.
Those of you who are off work how much have you reduced your contact? My thoughts are that if you give someone a day off in this country they instantly head to Ikea or a shopping centre.
We've been off work for 2 weeks on leave (although our holiday was cancelled) so been at home.
I've been to the shops twice in that time (not the supermarket).
Last Monday went out with friends for dinner (got on the train as it was announced that we shouldn't be socialising anymore).
Last Tuesday we went to visit a friend at home and took the dogs out. We discussed social isolating etc and decided that was pretty much the last mingling we were doing.
Apart from walking the dog we haven't been out since.
Cancelled our 4 day mountain biking & camping (van) trip and stayed at home.
So yes, the wife and I have been taking it seriously.
Those of you that are taking all the precautions is all your good work undone as soon as you step inside a supermarket and are exposed to those people who headed to Ikea?
Maybe, but I will be as careful as I can be, what more can you do?
We're back to work on Tuesday, which will be a very different place to what I left 2 weeks ago 🙁
Once we have demonstrated that we can effectively separate the two populations, govt policies will be used to turn on the taps and allow an increased rate of infection amongst the low risk group (as exceedence of the ICU capacity is unlikely to be exceeded).
No this won’t work.
ICU is already pretty much full.
Deaths and therefore real cases are doubling every 2 days.
Due to the circa 14 day lag from infection, incubation, sickness, deterioration, needing ICU the NHS is effectively doomed to be overwhelmed already, even if nobody gets infected from now on.
Not just a little overwhelmed either, 2^7 = 128x overwhelmed.
ignore this post, found what I was looking for .....
Apologies for the source but this is bloody scary 🙁
The shut down from Friday has been an unmitigated disaster.
We know from Iran and Italy that as soon as they shut the schools those with second homes fled on masse to their holiday homes by the sea. Countries like Spain and Belgium have acted on this information and the Police have been stopping people fleeing in their cars and turned them back. Germany I believe has been even more stringent.
What has the UK done? Absolutely nothing. The nicer seaside towns of the country are now thronged with families from West London (the epicentre of the outbreak) behaving like frat boys and girls on Spring Break. A lot of seniors live in those towns as well. A lot of them are going to die due to the selfishness of individuals and the stupidity of government. It's either the government hadn't learned a single lesson from what's happened in other countries or they're doubling down on their herd immunity approach.
This weekend has probably seen the UK's largest spread of the virus yet. If you're lucky enough to have two homes then great but pick one and stay there. All those who have de camped should be told to stay where they are now. Otherwise you know what will happen, they will get bored in a couple of weeks and move back to London bringing with them a new spike in infections just as London numbers begin to level out.
It's just an action replay of how the virus spread here in the first place when holiday makers brought the virus back with them from Sking holidays in Italy. (And I bet they are many of the same people)
whilst allowing the Low risk population to spread the virus at a controlled rate developing herd immunity
You may have (understandably) inferred that to be the government plan from what was said a week ago… but they have since declared that “the science has changed” (it hasn’t they’ve just accepted that it’s worth taking onboard what has been learnt outside the UK) and that it is absolutely not the stated plan now. Don’t keep repeating it. Stop the spread.
This weekend has probably seen the UK’s largest spread of the virus yet.
A valid and depressing thought. Despite the PM’s strong messaging on Friday not to go out socialising and not to travel, his handling of this over the last three weeks enabled that spread.
We need a clear …
STAY AT HOME
… three word campaign from the PM now.
I cannot tell you how grave the situation is. I expect complete lockdown this week for all except non-essential society members. I predict we will need extra centres for many beds with care facilities, as they have done in Italy and Spain. If these plans are not being put in place it will be a derogation if government. It is obviously clear that a health service that normally struggles will reach saturation.
This is not scaremongering I’m afraid. Mortality in the U.K. is tracking Spain very closely and slightly ahead of Italy for the same point in the epidemic curve. Behavioural change is what has changed the epidemic in China and South Korea. Without it I’m afraid the situation will become even more serious. Expect and obey isolation measures.
I don’t write these things lightly.
Not a lot of behavioural change around here, garden centre rammed when I went past, Tescos early opening for NHS workers back fired according to our mid wife neighbour, open from 9am, tills openned at 10am, loads of people packed together waiting for the tills to open.
Enforced lock down is going to be the only way. People aren't going to take this seriously until they know people who have got it, way, way to late to contain it. Pubs and clubs should have been shut a week ago or more. I think people are very I have no useful contribution to make down in their mentality at the moment.
tagnut69
Member
If we do go in to lock down, how will that affect things like MOT. My wife is a nurse and the MOT will run out in early June but with garages shut the car cant have its MOT inspection, any thoughts on this?
Spain are allowing cars without Mot (called ITV over there).
But there are also other strict rules, no more then one person to a car, and no driving if not to get food or for medical reasons.
Also they are on full lock down for a minimum of 15 more days.
Kelvin, it's more than clear messaging that's required now. The Government should have anticipated the mass exodus. The population should have been told to stay put in the home in which they are registered on the electoral roll or have a valid reason / permission to do otherwise. Accompanied by the threat of fines / prosecution.
I understand the nervousness of the government regarding the curtailing of civil liberties but a move like this would have been a no brainer. It would have only targeted a small percentage of the population, the same small percentage that have been and continue to be the main spreaders of the virus.
It would have sent a great message to the whole of the country. It would have backed up the message that we are 'All in this together'. As it stands, that phrase is nothing but a platitude, much as it came to be seen during the financial crash.
In other news…condescending is up 500% across all forms of social media.
Cool story Bro. Social commentary as situational comedy, barely ever been done before, so just so new and edgy.
Anything useful to add or just here for the one-liners in the intermission?
I've just put the call into work and they're allowing me to claim self isolation until the lockdown hits as I'm no longer comfortable putting myself at risk as I work on a building site in London so indirectly have contact with a million plus people each day.
Add to that I care for my Mum and my Dad has terminal cancer (possibly weeks left) and them catching it will finish them off quicker than there other conditions
This may be useful for recalcitrant teens. (It's a bitly link to Twitter because the tweet has old English version of to copulate in the title and we're a family forum). Needs Samuel L Jackson to read it.
I’ve just put the call into work and they’re allowing me to claim self isolation until the lockdown hits as I’m no longer comfortable putting myself at risk as I work on a building site in London so indirectly have contact with a million plus people each day.
Add to that I care for my Mum and my Dad has terminal cancer (possibly weeks left) and them catching it will finish them off quicker than there other conditions
Sorry to hear about the situation. Your employer sounds at least half reasonable so any bit of help you can get will hopefully make you feel a bit more supported.
People need to pull together on this.
deadlydarcy
MemberTBH if this virus took me soon I’m not that botherd as most of my reason for living is gone
Dude, that doesn’t sound like a good place you’re in right now. Please talk to a friend, loved one or a professional. Don’t be feeling like that on your own.
It’s not a good place, but I'm a fairly glass half full type of chap most of the time
funkmasterp
SubscriberI second darcy. Please speak to someone, the Samaritans can be great. I’ve avoided posting in here, but this warrants a response. I’ll give you my phone number, just pm me.
Don't worry my funky friend I'm not suicidal, just not seeing sense in things?
soobalias
Memberreally sorry to hear that MrOvershoot.
seosamh77
SubscriberMrOvershoot
SubscriberNot at all my friend same here.
Father died 21 years ago @ 61
Mother died 3 years ago @ 72
Wife died 6 months ago @ 52I’ve sort of got used to death, it still hurts like hell but none of us can escape it.
TBH if this virus took me soon I’m not that botherd as most of my reason for living is gone 🙁It’s difficult fella. Just know there are plenty here that know you and will miss your voice. So keep the heid and stay strong. We’ll all get through it together.
Gone into isolation myself since Thursday. Flat mate came in with a cough, so what else can you do. It’s a worrying time for everyone. But people will need you in the weeks and months ahead. Just think of the people around you. I’ve a ridiculous about of family 70+ so if nothing else just think of the difference you’ll be able to make others if you’re around.
Just remember though we’ll get through it.
38 years together through so much adversity isn't something I can just shrug and forget.
But once again this community is helping, even if it’s to tell me to not to be so stupid 😉
I'm taking some comfort that had Carolyn still been alive I would have been in a constant state of dread with her advanced MS (she had aspiration pneumonia twice) and us having carers in so I could go to work.
Fat chance of me in isolation I'm the Engineering Manager at a large flour mill we have to keep production going come what may. Still it’s about as secure a job as you could wish for at the moment just sad I can’t share it with Carolyn anymore 🙁
In other news…condescending is up 500% across all forms of social media.
Are you sure of that petal? 😉
jezzep
SubscriberI’m surprised no one has said they have had it? To shock everyone I’m just getting over it, my son has had it already and my wife is getting over it
Have you actually been tested Jez ? Amazing with those minor symptoms
The nicer seaside towns of the country are now thronged with families from West London
Yep, I drove into Richmond/Kingston yesterday to drop food, roads empty, straight back out on M3 which was rammed.
People need to pull together on this.
Nice sentiment. And 90% of us will. Some people will be dicks though, and the state will have to intervene. Our village was smashed up last night. Windows bricked, cars attacked, fire extinguishers let off.
The next steps will, sadly, have to look much like the French have done… army and police on the streets to protect the vulnerable, public services, and supply chains.
I think the government on the whole are handling this very well, maybe a day or two behind where they should be.
Hopefully by mid week there will be lock down powers similar to Spain
Spain went to lockdown too late, the women’s march across the whole country put us in this situation, where the government was too scared to cancel it, against the advice of the eu.
Then people from the Madrid, the epicentre of the virus started going to their seaside homes, spreading it even further. The country needed Madrid to be on lockdown, but once again the president was incompetent.
Our village was smashed up last night. Windows bricked, cars attacked, fire extinguishers let off.
Christ. Where was this?
@baboonz on the other hand at least Pablito wasn't in command, I dread to think how much worse the situation would be if that ****wit was in control!
Our village was smashed up last night. Windows bricked, cars attacked, fire extinguishers let off.
WTF?
Your village has fire extinguishers?
RM.
Cornish supermarkets stripped of Avocado's, Rocket Salad, humous, artisan bread and Chablis
Its like Beruit in here, was one comment from a Padstow newby
Nicely spreading the virus that they have been carrying for a week to the outlying parts of England shire. Contracted on the bus in London by a PR executive who cannot possibly wfh
The Spanish king upset a few people particularly Catalans with a speech yesterday:
Some people banged on suacepans... . Or is there more to it Spanish viewers?
Its interesting to read the discrepancies between the UK 4.6% and Germany 0.3% of those dying with corvid19.
At the moment the UK is adding to the corvid19 fatality list anybody who dies with the virus, unlike Germany who are only recording those dying as a result of the virus.
Anyone have any idea or link to official advise re how long to stay in house after symptoms end? Trying to convince SIL not to visit MIL.
14 days from when symptoms start isn’t it?
7 days from start of symptoms, 14 days for co-habitors.
14 days 7 days??? from the start of symptoms would have you going out when ill surely?
Not sure why this advise would be so hard to find!
Your village has fire extinguishers?
The fire station has/did have.
Not sure why this advise would be so hard to find!
It isn’t.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/
From the page: Do not have visitors to your home, including friends and family.
RM.
Here AA to be fair it’s probably easy for me to find as I try to keep reading for work.
On Friday, the PM was saying he was hoping to see his elderly Mum on Sunday, when the rest of us were strongly encouraging our friends to cancel their plans with theirs. Today he tells people to stay way from their elderly parents.
FFS
What doesn’t he get? We had the advantage of others countries being ahead of us as regards infection, he doesn’t need a crystal ball to give the useful message at the right time, rather than after people will be listening.
from the NHS site:
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
Staying at home can help stop coronavirus spreading
You'll need to stay at home if you have symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19) or live with someone who does.Staying at home means you should:
not go to work, school or public areas
not use public transport or taxis
not have visitors, such as friends and family, in your home
not go out to buy food or collect medicine – order them by phone or online, or ask someone else to drop them off at your home
You can use your garden, if you have one. You can also leave the house to exercise – but stay at least 2 metres away from other people.Information:
If you're not sure if you need to stay at home
If you have symptoms of coronavirus (a high temperature or a new, continuous cough), use the 111 coronavirus service to find out what to do.How long to stay at home
If you have symptoms
If you have symptoms of coronavirus, you'll need to stay at home for 7 days.After 7 days:
if you do not have a high temperature, you do not need to stay at home
if you still have a high temperature, stay at home until your temperature returns to normal
You do not need to stay at home if you just have a cough after 7 days. A cough can last for several weeks after the infection has gone.If you live with someone who has symptoms
If you live with someone who has symptoms, you'll need to stay at home for 14 days from the day their symptoms started. This is because it can take 14 days for symptoms to appear.If more than 1 person at home has symptoms, stay at home for 14 days from the day the first person started having symptoms.
If you get symptoms, stay at home for 7 days from when your symptoms start, even if it means you're at home for longer than 14 days.
If you do not get symptoms, you can stop staying at home after 14 days.
So sounds like it's saying fine to go to shops once your temp has definitely dropped. (I'd play it safe on this. No idea if I've got it, I've had some bug for about a week, felt a bit better yesterday, bit worse today, so I'm leaving it for a few days before I go near shops. But from the above, going out to exercise in the open air is counted as staying at home, I see to my surprise.)
Could you provide a link for that, Mooman? The Germans aren't testing people who are found dead who may have died from CV but I haven't seen anything to say they aren't including people who would have died anyhow but had the virus. That's very different.
There are better explanations of the German discrepancy. A younger population infected than elsewhere (as a result of picking up the virus whilst on ski holidays), the hospitals are not yet saturated as they were better prepared having heeded Italy's warning.
I think your advice is hard to find because it's asking how long a piece of string is A-A.
This woman was still positive/quaranteened on 18/3/2020 having picked up the virus in Italy before the 23/2/2020 (Edited as one of the dates in the article is a month out)
Its interesting to read the discrepancies between the UK 4.6% and Germany 0.3% of those dying with corvid19.
At the moment the UK is adding to the corvid19 fatality list anybody who dies with the virus, unlike Germany who are only recording those dying as a result of the virus.
Don’t tell me crows can get it too......
The Spanish king upset a few people particularly Catalans with a speech yesterday:
Some people banged on suacepans… . Or is there more to it Spanish viewers?
We get applause from the balconies at 8pm for the Osakidetza (NHS) and banging of pans at 9. The pans originally started to demonstrate solidarity with Catalunya during their elections, so I assumed it was in protest of Phil's unity speech although I haven't read as much.
Somewhat embarrassingly the night the applause started, I was on the turbo with headphones on. I could see the elderly couple across the street clapping, so I gave them the thumbs up thinking they were cheering me on. Felt a right tit when they were out clapping the next night.
Not too sure about that image of perchy's
Even if Mum and child1 have had coronavirus (they won't have been tested so we can't be sure) and are now immune (second "if"), child 2, unless they've had it but been totally asymptomatic and are now immune, is still infectable. Why would they not re-isolate ??
(Oh, and 😁 at bobsummers)
To echo Kelvin’s sentiment above, this virus just picking on the old or vulnerable, I know for a fact that fit young healthy people are currently in uk hospital beds intubate fighting for their lives.
Here their are no fancy crems being sorted, just rows of freezer container lorries to store bodies.
Some people need to start taking note, including people on this forum
Not a huge sample, I know, but a bloke I used to play cricket with (he was our overseas pro) has posted pics from outside his house in Ahmedabad where there is a curfew in place. There is not a soul in sight. He is getting shredded for ‘being out and about taking photos’ when he has taken them from his house.
Seems ‘us’ magnificent Brits might actually be able to learn a thing or two from other places in the world. Places our tub-thumping tosspot brigade habitually look down their noses at.
Thanks Drac
If you have been symptomatic, then you may end your self-isolation after 7 days. The 7-day period starts from the day when you first became ill
So the SIL has been symptomatic for more than a week but is safe to go out if still symptomatic, that sounds plain stupid to me. A cough can persist for a while but I'm talking still lethargic and achey.... not sure about temperature.
I think your advice is hard to find because it’s asking how long a piece of string is A-A.
I know that and you know that but my symptomatic SIL wants to go and see MIL as she thinks she's depressed and wont listen to any reason.
Anyone wearing PPE to go to the shops now?
Ive got some 3M FFP3 masks, enduro goggles and disposable gloves..
I see people staring at me and think WTF.. but.. surely its best to protect yourself?
It's about when you are contagious. As I understand it once you start with symptoms you are producing antibodies, which means you are starting to stop shedding the virus. On average most people aren't contagious on day 8 of mild symptoms.
Edit: The graphic that is.
he was hoping to see his elderly Mum on Sunday
Maybe he was going to Skype her?
Frau Merkel has just been on tightening up German restrictions. I was pleased to see the abstand (distance) between people is now 1.5m minimum and preferably 2m.
Edit: at the very end of the question session she added that going from 1m to 1.5m makes a giant difference.
Ive got some 3M FFP3 masks, enduro goggles and disposable gloves..
That’s more than some NHS trusts have as stocks were bought up and still are by the public.
Maybe he was going to Skype her?
Maybe so. Maybe he should have given a clear and timely message to the public. He’s not just an incoherent journalist now, what he says really matters.
On Friday, the PM was saying he was hoping to see his elderly Mum on Sunday, when the rest of us were strongly encouraging our friends to cancel their plans with theirs. Today he tells people to stay way from their elderly parents.
The man is a buffoon but I watched the press conference where he said that and it struck me as a slip of the tongue. Not ideal but I can think of bigger things to get outraged about.
Not too sure about that image of perchy’s
There are plenty of people in Italy on ventilators for 23 days straight and the medical staff seem to still be treating them as contagious.
Its nearly time for Boris's daily rabbit in the headlights performance, where he babbles incoherent, contradictory nonsense for 5 minutes before quickly hiding behind someone who looks like they might know what they're on then runs off to hide under his bed for another 24 hours.
Somethign to look forward too, eh?
There are plenty of people in Italy on ventilators for 23 days straight and the medical staff seem to still be treating them as contagious
If you are in hospital on a ventilator then it is fair to say you are not self isolating anymore, so the 7 day rule probably doesn't apply in that situation.
Flaperon
MemberThe man is a buffoon but I watched the press conference where he said that and it struck me as a slip of the tongue. Not ideal but I can think of bigger things to get outraged about.
I think it's all part of the bigger problem of communication, mixed messages, contradictions and trustworthiness. It's not just a one-off
Genuine question, prob Drac will know the answer
If you contract the virus, how long does it take before you become a spreader?
For example. You pick something up that has been touched by another infected person who sneezed into their hand and did nothing. You then pick up a 1micron droplet of snot with a load of live bugs dancing around looking for some action.
By mistake you rub your eyes and hey presto the virus finds a new host to play with.
I guess it must take 48 to 72hrs for the virus count to grow and spread through the body and that person to brcome a cpntagious potential shredder, or is it a week, 10 days, is it possible to be emitting live viruses for a week plus before your own body detects tnhousands of unwanted guests and starts the anti body response?
Is this why the new cv19 is so dangerous, loads of hosts unwittingly distributing live spores for a week ish before the sore throat, fever, aches, coughing tells the host they are in for a rough ride and they have passsd it on to 100 othets in the meantime
Maybe i have missed this on the news but i do try and concentrate on the svience bit
is it possible to be emitting live viruses for a week plus before your own body detects tnhousands of unwanted guests and starts the anti body response?
Pretty much.
Incubation 5 days, symptoms within 11.5 days.
I’ve retitled the thread as we don’t need conspiracies anymore.
If you can still read this the government made me chan…
No wonder I couldn't find it and there's next weeks creative outlet gone.
Oh well, back to pandemic pottering round the habitation. Although I have been productive - went up the local hill; socially distanced some friends; came back over my side of the hill; sent a photo of flowers - because you do; used alcohol gel before and after using the only gate catch on the walk - every day a new thing.
perchypanther - useful graphic, thanks for putting up
Lots of talk of how few deaths there are in Germany, but it is also worth noting that their recovery rate looks very low as well.
This is looking at worldometer comparing Spain and Germany.
Any insite from those with more knowledge on this?
I watched a report on Eins Extra earlier. They're testing a lot of people so picking up more people with the virus (like South Korea), the population affected is younger and the hospitals are still coping.
I've just found out that my elderly dad, 80+, went for dinner with his neighbour a week ago. Neighbour now has it.
Of course, my sisters and I told my dad he needed to be careful, but of course he ignored us (like he ignores everything we tell him).
Meanwhile, my mum is in a care home which is now locked down. No visitors, without exception. There was a plan for her to come home this week once a live-in carer could be organized, but that now gets delayed a week.
Doubtless he will be trying to tell the various care organizations that he's perfectly fine and there's nothing to worry about.
Either it turns out he is indeed fine, in which case we will all laugh about how funny this was, or it turns out he's got it, in which case it's going to turn into a massive slow-motion car-wreck, one which will doubtless be repeated tens of thousands of times across the country.
Anyway, so long as he can keep popping down to Waitrose for his shopping, I'm sure it will all be fine.
Afaik - Germany is only reporting deaths that are purely from corona infection where most other countries are reporting deaths of all causes where corona has been tested and confirmed.
entirely possible I am wrong though
Another deplorable performance by do-nothing Johnson. We don’t have the facilities to treat this pandemic. No beds no ventilators no masks no gowns not even paracetamol. Dreading the future at this point.
‘If you can’t behave, we’ll get tougher!’
For.
****s.
Sake.
Why wait for there to be a problem? This weekend has proven people can’t be trusted.
Its interesting to read the discrepancies between the UK 4.6% and Germany 0.3% of those dying with corvid19.
At the moment the UK is adding to the corvid19 fatality list anybody who dies with the virus, unlike Germany who are only recording those dying as a result of the virus.
I have seen this said a few times by some brexiter types on twitter, but not read it elsewhere, any source ?
Surely a more likely reason is that they started checking for people with symptoms at airports at the end of Jan and have done far more extensive testing & have the highest number of ventilators & hospital beds per capita in europe, (~15x? greater than UK)
Its interesting to read the discrepancies between the UK 4.6% and Germany 0.3% of those dying with corvid19.
At the moment the UK is adding to the corvid19 fatality list anybody who dies with the virus, unlike Germany who are only recording those dying as a result of the virus.
You can’t really work out CFR until all cases are concluded as many of the infected will go on and die. The deaths that are occurring now are from infections that happened 1-2 weeks ago. If you look at cases in Germany 10 days ago (1567) vs today’s deaths (92) that gives a CFR of 5.9%. Obviously they’ll miss a cases which will tend to bring the death rate down.
What matters is not the case fatality rate (CFR), what matters is the relative rate of growth of deaths vs cases. We can’t know the CFR because the denominator is not measured. From global data, assuming about 10-15% of cases are reported, and a two-week period from infection to eventual death, the global CFR is <1%.
In Germany the rate of growth of deaths is tracking cases (parallel on a semi-log plot). And in Spain, UK and Italy it does not.