Because as I understand it the rules are 7 days isolation from the onset of symptoms.
"Advice is if your still I’ll to continue to self isolate and to call 111 not to act as everything’s all right"
I do love this place. 🙂
Have you tried calling 111. They aren't interested. They make it very clear, but way of recorded message and website, that unless you are virtually incapable of moving to just stay at home and self isolate. I have a cough and a cold. Nothing else. But I'm assuming the worst and we haven't left the house since Thursday.
And I said I was expected to return to work. I intend not to.
You understand wrong, TR is quoting exactly what I read on the NHS website.
Anyone see that Tomas Pueyo bloke whose blog every man & his dog has linked to recently on the Chaannel 4 special yesterday? He was a lot less impressive in the flesh compared to the epidemiologist he appeared alongside. Came across as being a lot hysterical.
No idea how to quote. I don't post very often.
"You understand wrong, TR is quoting exactly what I read on the NHS website."
This is from the 111 website based on my answers, and the same message is conveyed when calling and holding.
" Stay away from other people for at least the next 7 days. If your high temperature lasts longer than 7 days, stay at home until it's back to normal.
Testing for coronavirus is not needed if you're staying at home."
I have no temperature.
I disagree with this though and I really would like to isolate for the next 6 months.
Given the demographics of those who can work from home and those who cannot when all this is done the data could be interesting.
But as it is we would be kicking the ball down the park to face an even worse situation in 4-5 weeks when every one emerges.
This Government is expert at kicking the can down the road, they've had years of practice with Brexit!
a wide spread is desirable in order to obtain a herd immunity via exposure
So that would be natural selection then.
Apologies if already posted
An analysis of the government approach
I don't know the author's bona fides, but he's a prof in the Institute Of Population Health Sciences at Liverpool Uni, so may know a bit about it
You could go to your nearest kids playground dig a hole in the sandpit and bury your head in it.
Or not read it.
You could think of a snappy name for it. How about 'self isolation'?
I reckon there's a good couple of hundred pages before STW herd immunity kicks in, though, so until then....
If you don't like it, don't read it.
nless you are virtually incapable of moving to just stay at home and self isolate.
Yes, this is a good idea IMO. We know people will get it and have mild symptoms, so testing millions of people with coughs and colds will just tie up resources.
So that would be natural selection then.
No, the idea is to protect the vulnerable and let the low-risk get it and recover to create population immunity. Quarantining everyone raises many serious questions.
unless you are virtually incapable of moving to just stay at home
So you've to leave the house if you are incapable of moving? I think I've found a slight flaw in this logic... (-:
And in what scenario can you see people managing to remain isolated for that amount of time? Food only lasts so long and even if you isolated essential workers their families would still be out there. It would require resources and resilience planning most likely well beyond what we are actually capable of achieving.
That's a completely defeatist and I might say cowardly outlook. If you look at other countries like China and Italy the public have completely embraced it and are doing their bit in order to protect the vulnerable and medical workers. No one is suggesting it will be easy, it won't. We're all going to have to accept massive and uncertain changes to our lives, but the evidence of China shows it will work. For how long we don't know, but if the alternative is doing nothing and sacrificing 1-4% of the populatiuon then just from an ethical and moral position we have no choice but to try.
No, the idea is to protect the vulnerable and let the low-risk get it and recover to create population immunity. Quarantining everyone raises many serious questions.
... which won't work.
If it did, then measles etc could have been eradicated naturally and we'd never have had need for a vaccine, rather than it ravaging a population for generation upon generation. The notion that this is "herd immunity" is (another, surprise!) government lie.
Herd immunity works by inoculating the majority of the population so that those who can't be immunised aren't exposed to risk. Waiting for as many people as possible to contract it is the opposite of that, it's maximising exposure to the vulnerable. It's "herd immunity" with the price tag of actually killing the people that herd immunity is supposed to protect.
A group of Dutch scientists believe they’ve found an antibody that could help to detect and prevent the coronavirus from being able to infect people.....
The scientists were already working on an antibody for Sars1 and when the new coronavirus broke out, they said they had found that the same antibodies cross-reacted and blocked the infection
From the BBC.
Probably means nothing but if true then it's a bit of progress.
The fact we are not testing scares me. My family are now self isolating as we have a cough. If I were tested and found to have the virus I would not leave the house for many days yet. However, I can’t get tested as my symptoms are not serious enough, and based on the 7 day isolation I am expected to return to work on Monday.
At the end all you know is you met the criteria for self isolation. Therefore have to keep on observing the biosecurity. Plan or co-incidence? Just to keep it on conspiracy topic.
Although on the conspiracy theme the only game in town is did they infect and isolate Boris when he went AWOL for two weeks. I'll get traction, or maybe a tin hat for this one yet!
Herd immunity, if I understand this right, we accept the potential price is ourselves or people we know for everyone else. I have been very pro all stop full stop but if this is across the globe you release quarantine and virus can just come back in.
Back to film references - it's the Kobayashi Maru (Star Trek if your wondering) or damned if you do damned if you dont.
Well this has thread has well and truly gone off the deep end hasn't it?
So whilst you lot are paddling round in the kiddies end of the pool my night shift fugue state insinuated this nasty little thought into my mind when I woke up today.
"what if this is only the start?"
Ming's second axiom "Nature hates a cocky species"
Most species crippling/extinction events are actually a series of kicks in the teeth/nuts starting with stressors, change in climate, extreme vulcanism, disease, change in solar constant, asteroid/comet impact or Hostile species arriving (think white man v Aborigines, American Indians, Maori).
Is this the first one at the start of the fall of Man?
Mrs M says I still can't buy a crossbow.
What a lovely thought
🤦
"White man", native Americans, Maori, and aborigines are all the same species
“what if this is only the start?”
The economic fallout is going to reqjuire countries to work together to resolve. When they start disagreeing with each other out of narrow self interest that could easily spiral out of control. Given the people running the major powers in the world today, does anyone have any faith in them to work together?
“White man”, native Americans, Maori, and aborigines are all the same species
Whilst true, I doubt the natives at the time thought this.
No, the idea is to protect the vulnerable and let the low-risk get it and recover to create population immunity. Quarantining everyone raises many serious questions.
… which won’t work.
Well, it might but it's a high risk strategy, but until a vaccine is developed, it's the only option unless you confine people indefinitely in the hope that the virus goes away (possibly in the summer) - and then it'll come back next winter.
So you’ve to leave the house if you are incapable of moving?
I suppose they are referring to the “keep people away from you” part of self isolation. If you can, don’t have visitors, and isolate yourself from the people you share your home with. If you’re immobile, you will need visitors, or the help of those you live with.
Waiting for as many people as possible to contract it is the opposite of that, it’s maximising exposure to the vulnerable.
One of many good reasons why this “herd immunity via natural exposure at speed” line from the government is just risky nonsense.
and then it’ll come back next winter
I keep hearing this “why delay, it’ll hit big sometime, better now then next winter”, but that completely overlooks the fact that people who actually know what the f they are doing are putting everything into understanding this virus, so we can counteract it long term. As the WHO keep saying… we need to contain (or at least delay when containment fails) this ‘till science can better help and protect our medical workforce, otherwise we are greatly increasing the risk to them (and hence lowering quality of care for the rest of us)… and for what purpose? Betting on a horse race in person? University students not having a term of distance learning?
It really seems like the single most important thing in the UK strategy- the immunity theory- is unproven. So, what are the reasons for depending on it working? What are the reasons for worrying that it won't?
What, ultimately, are the odds that the entire strategy is based on depending on something happening, that just doesn't? Or that if it does happen, doesn't offer the benefits that the plan requires for it to be the right one? (ie, if we do achieve an immunity but it's shortlived, like the common cold)
It's a new disease of course so absolute proof can't exist. But there are already cases that are described as proven reinfection- though it seems we don't really know 100% if they were just cases where the infection remained present and then rallied, rather than total recovery followed by return. But considering the short timescales here, even a small level of reinfection would be very worrying.
We also don't know if it'll mutate quickly or if the L and S strains will each provide immunity for the other. (in fact there seems to be some doubt about the 2 strains even really existing?)
There is also the definite possibility that instead of attaining herd immunity, our approach speeds flow of the disease through the population- ie doesn't flatten the hat as much as we could and stresses the health system more- but doesn't ever attain the levels of infection required for immunity. Having 50% of the country get covid-19 fast doesn't achieve anything more than having them get it slowly, and causes more problems.
And of course, if an effective vaccine is found, then we could have attained the immunity in a less awful way.
So there's a hell of a lot of ifs here. I have no idea what any of the answers are to this of course but I can see where questions are.
From what I've read - and there's precious little detail available - the strategy depends on being able to reduce the number of sick people to levels that can be more or less managed by the NHS - i.e. in traditional British fashion, forming an orderly queue to get the disease and proceed calmly to hospital if required.
The problems are 1) we aren't testing so we don't know when to change strategy, and 2) even if we knew the numbers we have very little control over them. It's not as though we can see the trends gently increasing and instruct the population to do a bit of extra hand washing to bring the level back to the desired level.
What we are doing is not significantly different to what the Italians were doing a couple of weeks ago.
All flights from the UK and Ireland to the USA now stopped from Monday night.
US travel ban to be extended to UK/Ireland, I guess trump must be taking this hoax virus pandemic seriously now?
Positive capitalism post:
Apple are doing two interesting things… closing all stores everywhere (irrespective of the official national response)… and giving all credit card users a payment holiday without penalty.
Will be interesting to see if other retailers and lenders follow suit… especially as regards mortgage payment holidays… and loan payments for small companies etc.
Of course, in many countries national policy is enabling this stuff anyway, but interesting to see if companies and banks take such action in countries without instructions coming from government.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1238837158007447558
"How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). If this were to be confirmed, it would add to the challenge of managing the pandemic. (7/12)"
"Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’ approaches. Devising an effective strategy would be even more challenging under low seasonal forcing. It would also considerably complicate effective vaccination campaigns. (8/12)"
Spiegelhalter is also someone to listen to.
https://twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1238833499211259904
The narrative of this is interesting, especially the different ways the authorities reacted. San Francisco standing out. (The pictures used are a bit random)
The lesson? - head in the sand tactics don't work.
The Cambridge University version
That’s a completely defeatist and I might say cowardly outlook. If you look at other countries like China and Italy the public have completely embraced it and are doing their bit in order to protect the vulnerable and medical workers.
It's realistic.
My work has put plans in place for the entire workload to be covered by 2 shifts out of 5 working back to back and living on site, this has an expected max length of 7-10 days before mental health effects take over.
To achieve a 4-5 week lockdown would require marshal law and the sort of strict discipline this country just doesn't do. For every reasonable action there will always be one twit that thinks the law doesn't apply to them or will break it simply out of spite. Take a few links out the chain and you would have a complete breakdown of discipline. I'm not being defeatist, I'm being realistic.
Then why do people like Francois Balloux and Spiegelhalter seem to have reservations about the governments approach?
The list of naysayers is getting long, first it's a former director of public health, then the WHO, now UK based epidemiologists and statisticians are starting to have bun fights with each other over twitter or questioning assumptions.
Let's not forget the tainted blood scandal and BSE hey? My hedge is that this will bring the Boris government down.
To achieve a 4-5 week lockdown would require marshal law and the sort of strict discipline this country just doesn’t do. For every reasonable action there will always be one twit that thinks the law doesn’t apply to them or will break it simply out of spite.
The "Yellow Vests" were out today in Paris.
John Hopkins educated epidemiologist.....
The scientific bun fight erupting on twitter is epic by the way.
Got a link to the twitter fight?
Was mentioned earlier in the thread. Our response is what happens when you have a eugenicist at the heart of government.
Survival of the fittest. May the odds be in your favour
Boris and Cummings Cummings can't be trusted based on the posts above.
Well thats a pain in the Balearics
Spain is now limiting journeys to the essential: work, carers, getting food and medicine.
I'll be riding or running to work on Monday - seems ridiculous to get on the train
