844,000 jabs.
Wow.
Social distancing pretty much ceased in any meaningful way last summer
Did it?
Has there been a definitive answer to whether the South African variant can evade vaccine efficacy?
Studies have shown that the Ox/AZ vaccine does not protect against symptomatic infection, but does prevent hospitalisations. The J&J vaccine that uses a similar technology has some efficacy. Novovax also seems protective. But they all prevent serious disease compared to placebo. Hence the vaccine in fact any vaccine, can be viewed as personal protection against getting sick of infected.
As to return to international travel. Slowly would be my expectation. I had hoped for 3Q21 for some semblance of normality. This may be longer based on global vaccine take up. I think that this is out of the UK’s hands. But this is a global situation and needs a global solution. Arguing over vaccines is petty and pointless. Hope the protection lasts long enough for others to catch up (I think it will).
Thanks TiRed, fingers crossed.
there are clinical trials currently looking at mixing
I was thinking of this one (a friend of mine is a participant):
https://comcovstudy.org.uk/
What a headline. Absolutely superb effort by the NHS to get that figure done. Incredible stuff and it should be applauded.
However, to then rub it into our nearest neighbours noses, effectively reveling in peoples deaths and misery is beyond sh*t in my opinion.
No wonder they are likely to cut exports to us, what a vindictive little country we have become. Sorry, not sure where to post this and dont want to go off topic. Just wanted to vent.
Do they not get that if the EU vaccine (and world) effort goes badly we lose too.😐
what a vindictive little country we have become.
Please don't confuse the headlines in the Press bought by a minority with the attitudes of the whole country.
I'm not being dragged down to their level, thank you very much.
First proper trial. Run by AZ, financed by US Government (BARDA). Different to other trials as 2/3 got vaccine and 1/3 placebo to reflect ethical concern that it will work. Dosing four weeks apart. Including elderly.
Fewer events than other similar trials (141 va typically 200) due to the randomisation, but 79% effective at reducing symptomatic infections and 100% hospitalisations. No evidence of thrombocytopenia of other clotting events (among about 20000 so hard to find anyway).
That’s a great outcome. Of course the duration of protection is not known, but the pathway to routine and endemic control is coming.
Do they not get that if the EU vaccine (and world) effort goes badly we lose too.😐
And also, you know, this is people being sick and dying that they're crowing about. Even without the fact that that they're our nearest neighbours and best friends, WTAF!? I'm all for press freedom, but if I were King, they'd be fined for the newly invented crime of 'incitement to behave like absolute ****s'.
if I were King,
My first act would be to enshrine Rule 1 in statute.
However, to then rub it into our nearest neighbours noses, effectively reveling in peoples deaths and misery is beyond sh*t in my opinion.
No wonder they are likely to cut exports to us, what a vindictive little country we have become.
Don't worry, they'll move seamlessly into whining about people not being allowed to go to Europe for their holidays.
The Express is the Daily Mail, but aimed at even thicker ****s.
He comes across as a personality vacuum, but the more cautious Welsh approach has often seemed more sensible. I fear his assessment that the Englush timescale is optimistic is correct, not sure Boris would want to delay it
BBC News - Covid: Boris Johnson's roadmap very optimistic - Mark Drakeford
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56457861
What I must be missing, or misreading the public mood, but I can't help thinking that if Boris properly slapped down the CRG nutters, told them publicly to MTFU and stop risking snatching another defeat from the jaws of victory again he'd probably get more public support than he'd lose.
He needs to be careful… because those that are now the “CRG nutters” successfully derailed the Tory train so that he could become world king. They may be outliers now, but they have successfully helped transformed his party, his fortunes, and our nations with this nagging from the sidelines approach (no alternatives proposed, just moan about rules) once before (ERG nutters) and he can’t rule out needing them to do so for him again (or worse, in his eyes, them doing so for someone else).
Social distancing pretty much ceased in any meaningful way last summer
Personally I feel like within my friends group its done subconsciously now. At first it felt odd standing 2m from someone having a conversation now it's just normal life. One thing we need to remember is when you see a group in the park who are closer than 2m (or in a group of more than 2) transmission is incredibly low - stats I have suggest it could 1/1000 cases come from socialising outside. But obviously from a statistical point of view there are so many variables when coming up with figures for outside transmission.
I should have guessed that internal Tory politicking trumps the national need....
Just got my jab this morning, very slick operation, took 15 minutes.
Of note, the 79% when dosed four weeks apart is numerically, but not statistically significantly better than the up to 12 weeks in the underpowered U.K. study (62%). Now my suspicion from the original Phase 1 AZ trial is that there is better short term boosting and less waning of antibody immunity over the duration of the trial. I think cross protection from serious disease will be longer lived and the most important factor, but I don’t discount slightly waning antibodies.
Here are the antibody levels from the Lancet paper - note the prime levels falling at day 56 (8 weeks) and maintained with a boost.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31604-4/fulltext
If I were offered the choice, I’d like my nex for injection in four weeks please. Still no more than a slightly sore arm....
@TiRed
I had an email from the trial this morning.
Re
the duration of protection is not known
The email states-
The JCVI recommends that anyone who has received 2 doses of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine does not require any further booster vaccination against COVID-19 at present.
I guess the key word is at present...
I had, it turns out, 2 doses of ox/az 12 weeks apart last June and September, and went for further bloods 10 days ago- antibody levels I presume. I was wondering if 6 months after my last dose I was still covered and it turns out I should be which is great.
To summarise our findings:
Regardless of dose level or dose interval, no participants in the trials who received the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine were hospitalised, experienced severe disease or died of COVID-19.
A single dose of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine offered protection from COVID-19 disease lasting up to 3 months with a vaccine efficacy of 76%.
After the second dose, the vaccine is more effective and antibody levels are higher the longer the interval between doses.
I guess the key word is at present…
Exactly this. Studies monitoring antibody titer are ongoing, naturally. But as I alluded to some time ago. we're probably not even halfway through the first natural endemic seasonal cycle of reinfections. But gosh how much we have learned! If I had to guess (like JCVI), I'd say biannual boosting would be good, annual probably more likely for those at risk/high exposure (like yourself). Cross reactive cover for morbidity looks promising too, but symptoms may still pertain. As long as any existing antibody halts the virus before it falls down into the lungs, I think that is a great result.
I'll just stress the "three months" there - about 10% of a typical coronavirus reinfection cycle. I'm OK with not knowing as that's science, but one should have some mitigation strategies for these known unknowns.
Poopscoop
Full MemberHowever, to then rub it into our nearest neighbours noses, effectively reveling in peoples deaths and misery is beyond sh*t in my opinion.
No wonder they are likely to cut exports to us, what a vindictive little country we have become. Sorry, not sure where to post this and dont want to go off topic. Just wanted to vent.
Do they not get that if the EU vaccine (and world) effort goes badly we lose too.😐
Also, "when can I go on holiday to Spain".
But coming from the country with one of the worst death rates in the western world, despite being rich and developed and geographically advantaged, is a double pisstake. Like celebrating scoring a goal in the last minute when you're 10-0 down.
Good god the daily express is depressing to know exists.
If it offered news from different perspective fine, but it’s just bllx
So in the news today, wave three inevitable says Boris.
Gee, great.
Note that they've already started blaming Europe rather than their inevitable shortcomings with the announcement as well. Bastards.
Can someone tell me ho many under 50s in UK and worldwide have died from it please?
@Kryton57 Arse covering of spectacular proportion there, I thought.
With a "cheeky" "telling it like it is" side order of blaming the neighbours.
Can someone tell me ho many under 50s in UK and worldwide have died from it please?
Too many.
Note that they’ve already started blaming Europe rather than their inevitable shortcomings
Genuinely, how can you say "the next wave is coming from....." and not put in place proper border controls and quarantine restrictions. Are they really that ****ing stupid?
Yes, clearly, but I was hoping furan actual figure for a discussion somewhere else.
I suspect an actual figure isn't achievable. Might be some educated guesses.
Anything on ourworldindata
Are they really that **** stupid?
No. Remember it is about media management and popular belief for them. They will only try and take control as regards another wave if they feel that not doing so will hurt them in the media and with their voters.
Anyway, sorry for a Telegraph link, but this is a good little read about learning lessons and proving our capabilities (or not) as regards controlling (or not) novel viruses:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/covid-happened-next-pandemic-might-look-like/
Yes, clearly, but I was hoping furan actual figure for a discussion somewhere else
From this:
from June to the end of January in England looks to be about 1400.
Some estimates based on US data suggesting 1% of total
Surely the wave that Europe is now seeing is thanks to the Kent variant that we've exported to them, so any Boris baloney about it "washing up on our shores" should be about it "washing off from our shores".
We’re currently keeping the beaches clean by a mixture of “lockdown” measures, and cold weather. It could all be very different come the summer.
[ analogy stretched to breaking point ]
But yes, we gifted the main variant of concern to our neighbours, so it’s more “splash-back” we’re concerned about.
My bigger concern is that having higher numbers of cases all across Europe could lead to even more troublesome variants too soon for vaccine development and production to be ready for them.
As of last week's data summarizing from 2020W1 to 2021W9 (we are now in Week 11), there have been a total of 2789 COVID19 deaths in the 0-49 age group where COVID19 was mentioned on the death certificate.
Of these deaths 1228 (44%) were recorded in the first nine weeks of 2021. in the same nine weeks a total of 5957 deaths were recorded. Although there is a necessary lag from COVID19 infections to deaths, that means COVID19 is causing causing approximately 20% of all deaths in this age group. I find the ratio of 44% worrying. For those 65 and over it is 122203 and 42446 (34%), so your odds of dying with COVID are 26% HIGHER (44%/34%) if you are younger than if you are older (because old people are more likely to die of other things)/
Not a good look 🙁
your odds of dying with COVID are 26% HIGHER (44%/34%) if you are younger than if you are older
Careful TiRed.
If you die as a younger person, there is more chance that it was because of Covid19. You are not “more likely to die” of Covid19 than an older person. I know that’s what you meant, but your bold sentence could be misunderstood and worry people unnecessarily.
Thanks Ti
I was careful to use odds ratio (ratio of relative risks) not absolute risk. Your absolute risk of dying if young is 5957/122203 or 0.05 - you are 20x less likely to die if young. The "if" is doing a lot of lifting in that sentence. I know people do struggle with absolute and relative risk - see David Spiegelhalter and bacon sandwiches for breakfast.
so any Boris baloney about it “washing up on our shores” should be about it “washing off from our shores”.
He’s just keeping the ‘Johnny Foreigner/Blitz Spirit/Brexit Stays Done/Immigrant Filth’ narrative going. It plays well with his supporters and hoodwinks them every time he drops the ball. In fact the ball has never been picked up, he just keeps pointing at Europe and making Churchillian grunts hoping knowing he’ll not be held to account for anything in his life. Especially not for his chart-toppingly disastrous handling of Covid19. Death capital of the World. Nice one Boris. Go on, point at some foreigners, quick, look there goes a squadron of ghostly Hawker Hurricanes, make the BBC crank up a big british brass band and hurrahhh, we’ll fight them on the beaches...
Christina Pagel says it's already been here and it is the Kent variety. We washed it up on their shores.
Yeah Boris, for all his fighting talk, has already declared the nations surrender to the third wave of the virus. Amazing /appalling stuff eh?
If only we lived on an island and had an idea of what was to come...
Anyway...
Mum having second vaccination tomorrow, should be the same as the first I'd assume so pfizer again.
A little concerned as she said she had a little breathing trouble the next day last time. Blood O2, blood pressure was all fine though. Not sure how much was psychosomatic. Called 111 to be sure of course.
Anecdotally the second (Pfizer) jab seems to cause a little more of a negative reaction in people. We'll see.
Her first jab just over 10 weeks ago. This is down in Medway, Kent.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but surely 4th 5th and 6th and so on waves are inevitable. And have been since eradication stopped being an option.
Its just a question of how well the population is prepared against infection and serious illness?
If we have sufficient protection from vaccines and prior infections, new variants shouldn’t cause significant waves. That’s the theory, there’s important assumptions in there.
If major new variants turn up regularly that evade all existing immunity then you’re right and we are ****ed.
Christina Pagel says it’s already been here and it is the Kent variety. We washed it up on their shores.
That's true, the risk is bringing in the next variation; the risk of which has to be rising with big rises in cases in the rest of Europe. With the 'washing up' Boris seems to be reverting to his journalistic pot stirring.
In other news - vaccine on Saturday. Bit nervous as I've just done a brute of a long covid symptom cycle - at it's worse pretty much the standard symptom play list in 48hrs. It was that bad I did a test - negative. Prospect of doing it all again within 7 days isn't thrilling me.
Mrs K has had her invite, and will be jabbed Thursday. Previously you may remember we were worried about her Lupus reaction but the consensus now is there’s very little to worry about from various sources inc. Lupus UK.
Comes as a big relief.
Good news K