Top link does not work.
Taiwan news is one source AND I'll admit that they don't like the Chinese but they are a lot closer to the action than we are.
Weird. Maybe there is a conspiracy. Edited original post to give pdf link.
Direct link to page keeps giving 404 - here's the front page which links to the report (and has a relevant twitter feed)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis
Failed again though on second go its working so I'll have a read.
works now - wants you to go from front page, annoyingly. pdf link in my first post also works.
I suppose it's a difficult decision to make for any government.
And by the time they make it, the cat will be well and truly out of the bag.
It's a question of where you draw the line.. An example of a microcosm of this, my friend almost told me I couldn't visit as I work in Leeds so could be exposed.
I asked if he had pulled his kid out of school.., hundreds of not thousands of attack vectors there.
From what I gather, you can't really say. Not with any accuracy.
There's also the issue with presenteeism in the work place, people feel obliged to go to work unless you are literally on deaths door, in which case you've probably passed it on anyway.
We had a puerile email go around the other day about having hand sanitizer on your desk, yeh that's gonna help when people are coughing and sneezing.
currently watching Contagion (Netflix) as a movie it's ok and it's obviously had input from people "who know about this sort of thing."
Some interesting similarities to the current situation though im glad to say the virus being discussed here is a lot more benign than the one in the film...
We had a puerile email go around the other day about having hand sanitizer on your desk, yeh that’s gonna help when people are coughing and sneezing.
Do you cover your mouth/nose with your hands at all when coughing or sneezing?
If yes, then using alcohol gel after (or obviously just immediately washing your hands) is certainly going to help. Or using a tissue instead - not that that is always convenient.
If not, then, well you've probably got bigger issues...
Well Contagion wasn't particularly feel good.
Going to watch Joker to cheer myself up.
And yet others are stating that it could infect 60 percent of the worlds population, even a 1 percent mortality rate at that level would be a mind boggling amount of death and destruction.
You guys!
We spend months worrying that over population will destroy the planet, then we get all upset when Mother Nature tries to help us!
MoreCashThanDash
You guys!We spend months worrying that over population will destroy the planet, then we get all upset when Mother Nature tries to help us!
Yes, but but...
It might be me!
they have estimated that the case fatality ratio to be around 1%
That isn't factoring the China influence. When they are dragging people from their homes and throwing them in a cage on the back of a pickup, there will be, er, incidents.
Sometimes the treatment is worse than the disease.
We had a puerile email go around the other day about having hand sanitizer on your desk, yeh that’s gonna help when people are coughing and sneezing.
It will actually help a great deal. If the person sneezes 10 meters away from me (all over their hands) and then leaves the office touching surfaces and door handles as they go they I will more likely pick it up on my hands (holding same door handle) and not from their direct sneeze.
Hygiene in the UK is very low and comments like your just go to prove the ignorance.
Yes, but but…
It might be me!
NIMBY 😄
While the fatality rate is never nice the biggest impact will be the closing down of everything.
No food/supplies delivered to shops, no people working in shops to sell the very limited food/supplies. That goes for animal foods as well as humans for anyone that has animals.
We stocked up about 3 weeks ago as there is only one way this is going to go...
Now that ^ seems a bit OTT to me. However, my wife works in the school in Brighton where a teacher has just gone into isolation due to being in close contact with another suspected case. Next to no kids in today. I'm seriously thinking of not visiting my elderly parents for a few weeks.
And next year there’ll be a vaccine.
There is no vaccine for SARS.
SARS was 2004.
Don't count on there being a vaccine for this one any time soon.
Apparently everyone is properly flapping. You might end up being right Kerley
My thoughts so far
- there is no conspiracy, the virus wasn't made in a lab but a result of humans encroaching into the forests and having contact with certain species carrying certain viruses for the first time
- it's a very frightening situation overall. the virus is asymptomatic, has a long incubation period, and is highly infectious. it also transmits in all climate conditions
- containment would never have worked in the first place, this is not like sars which could only be transmitted in certain circumstances
- all medical systems will struggle and we could see something similar to the spanish flu in terms of global death rates; particularly among the elderly, smokers, those with lung conditions
- china is under reporting the numbers on a large scale; i imagine hundreds if not thousands in the uk already have it
So worrying to say the least
Don’t count on there being a vaccine for this one any time soon.
A chap* was on R4 yesterday saying that they had isolated the necessary genetic material (in record time) from novel coronavirus already and were about to move on to animal testing. Suggested that that stage would be complete within a few weeks, but the human certification process will take months. Seemed confident that a vaccine would be available next year.
*Oxbridge boffiny type. Seemed legit. Was only half listening, sorry.
Edit; bit o’googling and I reckon it was a spokesperson from this bunch;
http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-02-07-oxford-team-begin-novel-coronavirus-vaccine-research#
Seemed confident that a vaccine would be available next year.
I know nothing about this sort of thing but, isn't the main problem with corona viruses the rate of mutation, that being why we've not cured the common cold and all?
Any how, I guess the social care and pensions problems have been solved.
My wife teaches a fair number of very physically vulnerable kids, their parents must be properly worried.
All Brighton cases come from the "super-spreader" apparently. Poor guy, wouldn't want to be him. Still, all this makes a change from Brexit I guess.
“super-spreader”
Man flu and man spreading combined?
We've just had the advice from NHS Wales through, it's not terribly exciting other than Coronavirus is quite common globally, Wuhan Novel Coronavirus is new. Typical symptoms are fever and cough. Small number of otherwise fit people may develop severe pneumonia (which is really unpleasant if you've ever had it) but it's all treatable stuff.
People with weakened immune systems, older people, diabetics, cancer sufferers and those with chronic lung disease are in danger.
Coughing so much last night convinced myself I've got it not helped by OH telling me how susceptible I am to chesty coughs.
I know nothing about this sort of thing but, isn’t the main problem with corona viruses the rate of mutation, that being why we’ve not cured the common cold and all?
Yes, and, another point, didn't the common cold (of whichever flavour) decimate the natives when the Spanish arrived in South America? Until they'd developed some immunity to it, that is.
IANA emerging disease specialist, but, seems likely a similar thing is happening.
Why did SARS self limit?
that being why we’ve not cured the common cold and all?
there is no 'common cold' theres at least a couple of hundred different lurgies that give symptoms that feel like a cold. All the symptoms you get when you have 'a cold' are you - your immune response - the snot, the sore throat, the temperature and so on - thats your immune system doing that to you. You only have one immune system so all those different lurgies feel the same. But if you had a cure / vaccine for one you'd still be able to catch all the others and they'd still feel the same.
We stocked up about 3 weeks ago as there is only one way this is going to go…
WOW!
Anyhow, I'm off to Morrison's for a bit of panic-buying. Got my EDC knife in case things get lairy in the tinned meat aisle. Anyone want anything picking up?
I've still got my brexit stockpile ready for emergencies.. admittedly thats mostly Terry's chocolate oranges (made in france) but at least lots of vitamin C. 🙂
Anyone want anything picking up?
Can you get me some nice string? I want to practice some survival macrame.
Anyone want anything picking up?
A Glock 17 and a few hundred rounds.
This shit just got real.
I'd like some Wagon Wheels but have to be the jammy ones. If they've only got plain don't bother.
Ok, that's a good list. Drac, would a rapidfire Nerf gun be an acceptable substitute?
What with me in Broadwater and pictonroad on the other side of Worthing (I think?) we're pretty much doomed round here. #Prayforworthingmtb.
Won't be laughing when I'm struggling for breath though, will I?
In London today for a meeting. Be back when I get out of quarantine in a couple of weeks.
Would it be in bad taste to have a sweepstake on how many cases by the end of the month? I’m going for a couple of hundred.
Ok, that’s a good list. Drac, would a rapidfire Nerf gun be an acceptable substitute?
Only if it has one of the fancy ammo belts.
My Wife (who has been suffering from bad flu the last few days so is not working), has just got off the phone with her mum in Italy, small little village down south. SCANDAL alert.. Apparently some young teacher has recently returned from China via the UK as all inbound flights to Italy from China had been stopped – i.e. she by-passed the controls (apparently). At the same time the school she works out has just been quarantined by the local gov due to mice infestation (apparently). The young teacher’s parents are a doctor and nurse, of which were seen burning clothes and stuff in their garden, with a cob on. School are being very “secretive” of what they are doing.. this is typical Italian drama with bugger all facts (as that ruins good stories over there)
In reality – i think
Teacher was in Chain, but could not get a flight direct to Italy – nothing unusual there.
Teacher will have been on flight that will have been cleared by UK gov
School is fine, but someone with a firm for “cleaning” is mates with local mayor and has seen an opportunity for some €€€€
Teachers parents have gone full paranoid / or burning garden waste and are fed up with people staring, talking
Teachers career will be in tatters due to usual small village ignorance..
While the fatality rate is never nice the biggest impact will be the closing down of everything.
No food/supplies delivered to shops, no people working in shops to sell the very limited food/supplies. That goes for animal foods as well as humans for anyone that has animals.
We stocked up about 3 weeks ago as there is only one way this is going to go…
Utter bollocks. The fatality rate of the virus is on a par with normal flu, but the contagion rate is slightly higher (1.7 vs 1.6) caused by the fact that symptoms are difficult to detect in the early phases. Quarantine is in place to limit infections and thus limit the potential for mutation in the early phases.
The elderly/infirm/complications are the biggest fatality group just as they are with flu.
Panic buying like you've just done is what will CAUSE food shortages. Pillock.
– china is under reporting the numbers on a large scale; i imagine hundreds if not thousands in the uk already have it
So worrying to say the least
Again Bollocks. The WHO is on the ground in China and those are the number we're hearing.
As for UK cases...this government couldn't keep a secret if its life depended on it. If there were substantially more cases, we'd know purely by the transit of health staff to locations.
that being why we’ve not cured the common cold and all?
there is no ‘common cold’ theres at least a couple of hundred different lurgies that give symptoms that feel like a cold. All the symptoms you get when you have ‘a cold’ are you – your immune response – the snot, the sore throat, the temperature and so on – thats your immune system doing that to you. You only have one immune system so all those different lurgies feel the same. But if you had a cure / vaccine for one you’d still be able to catch all the others and they’d still feel the same.
Yep, at least 200 types of virus we call the "common cold".
There are lots of anti-viral drugs drugs to treat specific viruses and even broad spectrum ones that can treat a selection, but the reason why we don't have simple cure, apart from the fact it's not simple is there's really no point.
New drugs are very expensive. Would you pay £50 for a course of drugs to cure a virus that usually goes in 3 days? Would you still pay if you knew the drug might take longer to work than the cold lasts? Would you accept possible side-effects?
Colds are rarely more than inconvenient and 50p worth of Paracetamol / decongestant tablets treat the symptoms well enough for most people to carry on as normal.
Yep, at least 200 types of virus we call the “common cold”.
Four of which are existing corona viruses which are already endemic in the genpop. And cause respiratory symptoms, mostly cold like but occasionally more severe, especially in the old, weak, immumocompromised, etc. This is just a new one so we as a species are yet to build up a herd immunity to it, which is why we are seeing a mortality spike.
Nothing new under the sun. An understandable worry if you have young/elderly/infirm loved ones, but not the ‘sneezebola’ that the media seem to want to portray it as.
My understanding was that Sars did not self limit, they isolated contacts till it ran out of steam. (From a half heard radio interview yesterday)
So, being near ground zero I thought I would risk a trip into work today. Everything seems to be running at around 30% capacity commute wise, shops are open but its not busy and there was a mad queue outside one of the chemists near work as rumor had it they had some masks coming in.
I'm working on a number of projects in Asia and all my Chinese ones now have ground to a halt, first because each local authority has basically stopped any non-essential works in the two main cities I have projects in, Shanghai and Beijing, and secondly we need to get our heads around the new paperwork on how to ensure any contractors applying to do work on-site have been proven to have gone through the standard 14 days quarantine.
This is a big fuss over a flu bug, fueled by the the Chinese government going overboard now to try to make up for, or at least be seen to, after trying to keep it quiet in the first place, further fueled by sensationalist global media.
The one death in HK to date was a guy who had some very bad health issues already and the original surge, well the first 11 treated with this virus in HK, being all Chinese nationals who hot-footed it here for better treatment in our hospitals once they knew they were ill.
One of the reasons for the recent strike by medical staff to close the border, the medical facilities here struggled to cope with an influx of pregnant mainlands years ago taking advantage of the instant residency rights of newborns (law changed since then to stop this), it would be overwhelmed if the borders hadn't been closed.
Utter bollocks. The fatality rate of the virus is on a par with normal flu, but the contagion rate is slightly higher (1.7 vs 1.6) caused by the fact that symptoms are difficult to detect in the early phases. Quarantine is in place to limit infections and thus limit the potential for mutation in the early phases.
Interested what source you're quoting those stats from. The generally accepted case fatality ratio of seasonal flu is estimated to be approximately 0.1%. CFR of this novel coronavirus is thought to be at least 1%, possibly higher. The R0 of this novel coronavirus has not yet been fully established, but is still thought to be in excess of 2.5.
If there are any reliable sources which paint a more optimistic picture of this virus than that, I'd be delighted to hear them.
The WHO may be on the ground, but the Chinese Government is setting the ground rules. In the last couple of days they have revised their criteria for confirmed cases to just those testing positive with symptoms, as opposed to testing positive with or without them. This has the effect of immediately making it appear that case numbers are beginning to plateau, when the reverse may be true.
(It may also mean that the CFR appears higher than it is too, every cloud and all that). Reported deaths are currently just over the 1,000 mark from 40,000 confirmed cases.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226868235192152065
