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Given the end of lock down is the 21st of June, if ive not been vaccinated by then i'll be making a point of keeping to myself until I am.
I'd be bloody annoyed to make it through the last 18 months only to get covid a few weeks before Im due to get a jab!
Given the end of lock down is the 21st of June, if ive not been vaccinated by then i’ll be making a point of keeping to myself until I am.
I was very surprised that day was given that way, a lot of people won't have had the second jab by then.
Just FYI if it helps:
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I was very surprised that day was given that way, a lot of people won’t have had the second jab by then.
a lot of people won't have had any jab by then.
Hopefully vaccine passports, if they come, won't be another test and trace lobbed out to the private sector.
Going to be interesting comparing what happens with Scotland vs England. If data not dates gets more community buy in. The date becomes the goal not the outcome that enables the change. Less motivation to put in the hard work if people are just waiting to get to a release date.
Think they are assuming 80 million vaccinations by then so first jab should be done and dusted for all,
The number of volunteers stepping up is amazing. On top of all the people on a local level helping out in all sorts of ways throughout the pandemic.
It's an interesting 'experiment' on the No such thing as Society vs Big Society debate.
Results are in. Some people are absolute stars. Some are pricks. And then there's everything in between.
so first jab should be done and dusted for all
Everyone to have had their first jab by 21st June? I’ve not read read that anywhere.
tpbiker Full Member
Given the end of lock down is the 21st of June, if ive not been vaccinated by then i’ll be making a point of keeping to myself until I am.
Feel exactly the same way, I won't be going into any cafes/pubs till 3-4 weeks after my first jab. At 39 that probably won't be till mid/late August, there's no way I'm risking long Covid!
Think they are assuming 80 million vaccinations by then so first jab should be done and dusted for all,
Nope, all adults to be offered first vaccine by 31/7
If the 66M population is equally split by age groups, under 18's will be about 1/5 of the population, give or take so that's about 52M over 18's. Your 80M might be right but I think you're underestimating the effect of the boosters on getting through the younger age groups (counter, lower than 100% uptake on those offered)
Just FYI if it helps:
indeed! im so excited for that stay local order to be lifted.
Nope, all adults to be offered first vaccine by 31/7
The modelers are assuming 4 million per week from March 21 so that 52 million jabs in the 13 weeks to June 21 enough to do the whole adult population, second does for those already vaccinated and first jabs for the remainder.
Some people should be getting two jabs in that period though, so there will be others getting no jab. I've no idea how many "some" is... but I can see why the government aren't saying what you're claiming Mefty. July is more realistic target to publish.
There’s a tendency in our News reporting to be glib about qualification of how it’s going to be possible to relax restrictions. 10 o’clock news last night on BBC was all these are the dates to begin and then glossing over that the dates are only possible if some strict conditions are met. Is this to fool the gullible, poor news reporting or to draw the fire from the CRG?
If these dates become too strongly embedded in the public consciousness then it'd take a firm and confident government to step up and delay them if the statistics don't support them. I'm not sure whether the current government is up to that. They did (partly) roll back on the Christmas relaxation but I'm not sure they'd be able to resist the demand to follow the schedule they laid out yesterday irrespective of the facts on the ground.
Those are England only figures so plenty of leeway.
@Kryton57 - here's a simpler infographic that'll answer many people's questions about the roadmap:
[img] 
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Feel exactly the same way, I won’t be going into any cafes/pubs till 3-4 weeks after my first jab. At 39 that probably won’t be till mid/late August, there’s no way I’m risking long Covid
It’s like being in the Nam. If you are going to get it you may as well get it on day one. Getting COVID in July is akin to being shot on the last day of the war..
So Mefty, if you think all adults will get the first jab by June 21st... why is it only you saying so? Are the government and NHS just being cautious with their dates? I wouldn't blame them if they were, but I think it's just as likely that they've looked more closely at what the vaccine rollout can realistically achieve... either way, once/if it does look as if all adults will be offered their first jab in that timescale, with a reasonable degree of confidence, I'm sure it'll become big news everywhere.
.....mmm.... beer gardens....
Feel exactly the same way, I won’t be going into any cafes/pubs till 3-4 weeks after my first jab. At 39 that probably won’t be till mid/late August, there’s no way I’m risking long Covid!
Good that your employment status allows you to worry about this. Not a dig at you, I am 100% with your thinking on this, just a shame that millions of others have been, will continue to be or shall soon be thrown under the bus
Although I saw a comment about 'local lockdowns can still used where needed' or something along those lines - I've not seen anything mentioning tiering? Is that idea thankfully gone?
RM.
Still no talk of us teachers being vaccinated anytime soon.
I'm expected back on the 8th with no social distancing in the classroom, and a shared staffroom with 11 others and no social distancing.
Are the government and NHS just being cautious with their dates?
In a few weeks when priority groups 1-9 will start to need their second injections, we're going to have to double our through-put to maintain the same trajectory. Given that we're finding it difficult to staff our site currently , at the moment I don't know how we're going to do this...
it’d take a firm and confident government to step up and delay them if the statistics don’t support them
As I said last night, I'm feeling that Government is now listening to science far more, so it wouldn't be Gov that delays the dates if needed....they can just say that science told them to. No lose situation. And science don't need to be populist, they just need to be right.
anagallis_arvensis - Full Member
Good that your employment status allows you to worry about this. Not a dig at you, I am 100% with your thinking on this, just a shame that millions of others have been, will continue to be or shall soon be thrown under the bus
I know you're not and I couldn't agree more. I said to my wife last night your exact words, teachers like yourself (and other professions) are being chucked under a bus. I wouldn't want to be in classrooms full of kids and that's got nothing to do with the fact that I don't like kids!
FWIW my job does entail going out and surveying buildings but it's pretty safe regarding Covid. I did nearly there myself or a window yesterday.
.
Still no talk of us teachers being vaccinated anytime soon.
No.
[ can't expand on that answer without breaking the ****ing swear filter ]
why is it only you saying so?
It's not - plenty of people have noted how cautious the government have been on vaccine rollout - not unreasonably. But as far as this precise calculation, I bother to look at underlying assumptions, can count and multiply -other prefer to post diarrheticly.
Aren't you a clever boy.
You know what they say about assumption...
Aren’t you a clever boy.
I wouldn't regard basic arithmetic and largely refraining from posting banal bollocks on the internet as a particularly good indicator of intelligence, so no.
You know what they say about assumption…
Indeed which is why I noted it was based on assumptions, it is also why if I get the chance I like to look at the underlying assumptions.
Who are the modellers? Interested why there's such a discrepancy (6 weeks in a 13 or 19 week delivery plan to the same endpoint is quite a difference?)
Who are the modellers? Interested why there’s such a discrepancy (6 weeks in a 13 or 19 week delivery plan to the same endpoint is quite a difference?)
It's not the point estimates, rather the regions of prediction uncertainty. Models by both Imperial and Warwick provide overlapping intervals. Assumptions are of course always a challenge - how much protection? what roll-out rate? What is the effect on transmission? What other policies might change? etc...
the picture I painted up there with simple but robust arguments is, unfortunately, not going to be far wrong. The models quantify this and overlay precision. Whether such precision is necessary for policy is a moot point. One can argue it helps frame the decision, but those skilled in the art would always be advising caution in interpretation.
I've said it before, but the more you understand numbers, the less willing you are to act on any single prediction 😉 - that's certainly been my experience in modelling in multiple fields.
Don't call them "predictions"... that's the starting point to better use.
Anyway... I'll ignore talk of us all getting the first jab before 21st June 'till I've heard it from someone fully across the vaccine rollout, rather than someone who thinks it can be discerned by using just basic arithmetic using a few headline numbers. I really hope you're right Mefty, and I will cheer if it turns out that you are.
Millions of high-grade NHS masks withdrawn over safety concerns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56167916
must admit it was very galling to see Matt Hancock has said that there had been no PPE shortages, knowing the lengths some of my colleagues had to go to get hold of scrubs, goggles, gloves & sanitiser in March
@slowpuncheur thanks for the kind words mate.
No side effects at all today I'm glad to say. Even the arm isn't sore. Though I have less sensation in that seem due to a Neuro issue so that mask soreness a little!
I'm going for an eye test late next month now, can't wait.lol Not been happy about having one over the last year and my glasses/eyes are a little buggered.😁
kimbers
Full Member
must admit it was very galling to see Matt Hancock has said that there had been no PPE shortages, knowing the lengths some of my colleagues had to go to get hold of scrubs, goggles, gloves & sanitiser in March
Total reality denial! 😠
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.”
Poopscoop - with Pfizer I believe the reaction is often 2 days post jab.
NickC - the situation is similar here - my local rural centre struggles to get staff from the NHS bank as they don’t want to travel. Meanwhile as a St John vaccinator I am only allowed to work at the big centre. Even though I’m 2 miles from the understaffed one. Plus the NHS have stopped recruitment - I’ve completed their training but they’ve stopped recruiting.
@tired, was not aimed at you. It was mefty who said modellers were suggesting 4M vaccinations per week x 13 weeks.
I agree your modelling is far harder, but this one is easy, doesn't rely on transmission rates or protection, just rate X weeks X uptake. Hence why I'm intrigued why the two estimated end points for every adult to have had at least one dose differ from Gov to mefty's modellers by so much.
And I can't find a reference to these 4M/WK anywhere, so whose model is being referenced?
dantsw13
Free Member
Poopscoop – with Pfizer I believe the reaction is often 2 days post jab.
Really? I've got some paracetamol in if I feel a little "fluey".
Regarding teachers, it seems insane that they aren't being called up asap to have the vaccination. Should have happened already allowing for the 3 week period after the jab to become effective.
Poopscoop - you may well get nothing at all! I completely agree with regards to teachers.
Germany are vaccinating teachers as well as vulnerable now, be interesting to see if government will do so here