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Look at the rate of decline. Or read Protons for Breakfast. The declining rate is substantially faster than the rate of decline from lockdown alone back last year, hence the actuals falling below the dotted line.
At this stage I think what Whitty is saying is correct. In 2 weeks time we can afford to do something (I'd have still been inclined to possibly delay by 4 or 5 and get that number lower still and more vaccinated, but that's just opinion and gut instinct, I have no data about why 8th March is bad but 15th or 22nd is better). The decision is that schools are first for the obvious benefits, and also the lower inherent risk to the majority of school users. Again, not underestimating the risk to staff - my wife goes in every day and takes that risk too.
Then we wait AT LEAST 5 weeks and see what effect it has had. And act on the data that tells us what we can do next.
Do you think Johnson is late for everything in his life? Has any of these briefings ever started less than 7 or 8 minutes late…..
He has to get his hair just right - important to have the right hair for the right situation. Could you really imagine Boris being inappropriately coifed for a serious situation. Or maybe he was just quaffing a few nerve calming ones. Or perhaps the speech writers realised they'd left something off the bingo card.
I’d say dying struggling for breath as your lungs fill up with gunk and no sympathetic human contact to ease your situation is a pretty cruel way to go.
When so many could have been avoided by looking at the experience of other nations or actually doing what your own scientists are suggesting you should do.
Then we wait AT LEAST 5 weeks and see what effect it has had. And act on the data that tells us what we can do next.
That's the point my faith in this government runs out.
I stress that I can't wait to be proved wrong and for this to work.
He has to get his hair just right – important to have the right hair for the right situation.
How long does it take to blow up a balloon?
@MCTD
Absolutely. I'm on the flipside of your coin.......I'm prepared to play the ball for now but prove me wrong, ignore the data and **** it up and I will be the first to say they ****ed it up.
As indeed they have time and again. But as I say, and maybe I'm naive - they might be right this time. As they were with vaccines.
I see the threads taken at turn away from sensible and helpful again, I’m out for a bit.
“When will this be over” FFS is kuenssberg thick or just irresponsible asking this after the clear need for data to inform of the next step.
I’m a supporter of the bbc but she does the Corp no favours.
Edit she’s just been usurped by an even more idiotic journo.
I’d say dying struggling for breath as your lungs fill up with gunk and no sympathetic human contact to ease your situation is a pretty cruel way to go.
I'd say being stabbed and dieing alone in a dark alley or park is also pretty crap.
What's your point?
How long does it take to blow up a balloon?
Maybe the ballon was busy running one of the departments. You'd think they could afford a Van de Graaff generator. Nice bit of technology would be just the thing for Boris.
Bojo aside - Whitty and Vallance are top of their game tonight.
I hope - and beginning to trust - that science is running the show finally.
Then we wait AT LEAST 5 weeks and see what effect it has had. And act on the data that tells us what we can do next.
I think thats the problem, Johnson has set these dates in stone (papers already have their headline dates)
while the slower more cautious approach this time is definitely to be applauded, its a gamble for Johns, hes in danger of having to u-turn again & create more resentment if they dont meet the dates
I hope – and beginning to trust – that science is running the show finally.
agreed, in general Johnson has got better at not overpromising and listening to the sceptics more than the scientists as he seemed determined to do last year
getting rid of cummings & brining in Stratton really does seem to have improved his the communication, which is critical
You’d think they could afford a Van de Graaff generator.
Vallance has one in his loft, but refuses to bring it in because Boris always lets Whitty do the ‘next slide please’ thing.
HTH.
RM.
Edit she’s just been usurped by an even more idiotic journo.
Incredibly Johnson was not the weak link tonight. The journo questions were dreadful.
its a gamble for Johns, hes in danger of having to u-turn again & create more resentment if they dont meet the dates
Again, maybe naive but I think that's where the scientists are starting to hold the whip hand. If they don't think the time is right, they can and should call it as such. Johnson can't really lose if he follows the science.
[and +1 for Cummings. I smell his hand over a lot of the **** ups of last year. Sitting in on the SAGE and manipulating]
Just been Pfizered.
Saw 2 of my old gp's there that have come out of retirement to help.
Sitting there for my 15 minute I actually started to get a little tearful, luckily no-one noticed.
It was so humbling to see the NHS and volunteers throwing themselves at this virus.
Teary again typing this.
they might be right this time. As they were with vaccines
They got lucky with a gamble in the vaccines, and thankfully have left the experts to sort out delivery. Every other gamble they've taken has gone horribly wrong.
Johnson has set these dates in stone (papers already have their headline dates)
I'm as annoyed at how the Press are reporting it as I am at the government for giving them the ammunition.
Could the increased apparent rate of case drop compared to the peak in April 2020, in the graph a few posts up, simply be down to the "Kent strain" having ripped through the socially mobile community and the fact that face coverings didn't become law UK wide until July... So it's struggling to find new hosts?
Bojo aside – Whitty and Vallance are top of their game tonight.
I hope – and beginning to trust – that science is running the show finally.
Over all, it feels like a much more considered approach than last year. With the agenda being to protect people.
As with my earlier post - my concern is the potential for things getting out of hand after easter. If it does end up being step three when things are shaking out then it would be a real fight to get things back when everyone is thinking we are going forward. That said - I'm also guessing the scientists will have quite a bit of head room built into the decision points.
Getting it to be just like flu doesn't quite feel right. Flu doesn't seem to leave as many people with long term debilitating conditions. There's probably a lot the government could do in terms of reducing risk by addressing wider societal issues. Although the CRG and their ilk want opening up and no further lock downs I cant see them going for actually investing money in society. Addressing the issues that drive increased susceptibility would seem to be as important as annual vaccinations, hand washing and masks.
@morecashthandash
Thanks for the reply. That is impressive. I'm in an old edwardian building and all the teachers abd some of the students used masks, but it's just impossible to keep any distance.
I think everyone is doing their best with what they have.
So when it goes wrong it's their fault, when it goes right it's lucky.
I like you, really, but your last few comments are very blinkered.
Play the ball, not the man.
Maybe you're right, I'd better take the evening off.
Whitty and Vallance are top of their game tonight.
Whitty Dodged the question on staggering the return to schools like an experienced politician.
when it goes right it’s lucky
I’ll take this… as well as being lucky, the government made some strong and important moves… taking on the liability to reduce time to approve vaccines, being prepared to spend much more than other countries, engaging with as many different international companies developing vaccines as possible, building up vaccine production sites with more urgency than other countries… and utilising the NHS for rollout.
That's what was so weird about vaccines the government approached it in such a different way from every other aspect of crisis!
Tho there is certainly an element of luck in vaccine development and production, I'd Sanofi/GSK version had worked better & Ox/AZ one had failed could have been different story ((Tbf I dunno what UKs contract with Sanofi looked like)
Of course there was luck… but the spread of investment and promises to purchase were wide, with big money to back that up… that was far better than betting big on just a few candidates, or small amounts on many candidates. Spread plus big spend improved our odds. Developing production sites before knowing which vaccines would come good was also key to making the most of the good luck when it manifested itself. It could all have been money wasted… but it was a good gamble. And, of course, shifting risk from the private sector to the public sector… as the government must always do when a crisis hits.
What depresses me is the 60,000 deaths new deaths, and countless damaged lives, after we knew we’d lucked out with vaccines, and had started rolling them out so early. What a waste. And all for what? The promise of a Christmas that never happened in the end anyway? And one day of full school attendance at the start of term? Why? Such a waste.
March 29th
The stay at home rule will end but people should stay local as much as possible
Did this mean I can travel outside of my area for exercise? E.g. go to the Peak District?
maybe coming to an end.
Not wishing to sound too pessimistic, but this will be the end of the first wave. The wave in which an essentially naive population of humans experienced a new pathogen for the first time. Yes I think the vaccine will protect from mortality and provide some protection for subsequent seasonal waves and new variants.
As for that decline on protons for breakfast, trust me EVERYONE is looking at all data sources for evidence of a signal in vaccine efficacy. Of course it's not that simple. There is additional immunity now that was not present previously in Lockdown 1, that can lead to a faster decline. There is currently no evidence across the nations that the half-life of the epidemic is different for cases and admissions and deaths, which is odd, because the group we are vaccinating most are not transmitters (they are die-ers). It will happen, but it is just early days.
Like I said, everyone is looking 😉 - half life in Lockdown 1 was 21 days.
Personally, I think the Government have got it largely right (for once) and I agree it feels like CMO and other scientists have more sway now the mekon has buggered off.
However, the messaging remains terrible. Every red top has the list of dates Bojo trotted out last night. This will be data driven but it seems that half the population are ignoring that part and are now booking holidays etc based on those dates alone. Bojo needed to present this 'roadmap' as a deal between Gov and the public. If the public continue to follow the rules, get vaccinated etc, then the good stuff will follow. Didn't read like that to me.
BTW @Poopscoop. I've read most this thread without contributing but I have to say I am really chuffed for you getting the jab. I realise what this means to you.
That’s what was so weird about vaccines the government approached it in such a different way from every other aspect of crisis!
There really is only one group of folk in this country that have any experience in mass vaccination, and that's GPs. the vaccine roll-out is largely being done by...GPs...the only decision that the govt made was "ask GPs to do this"
There’s a whole range of people doing it not just GPS. Hospitals doing Health/care staff. Community pharmacies now popping up and the big centres are doing a fair chunk. My one does 3000/day and we are a small centre compared to some.
There’s a whole range of people doing it not just GPS. Hospitals doing Health/care staff. Community pharmacies now popping up and the big centres are doing a fair chunk. My one does 3000/day and we are a small centre compared to some.
No, but I think the point is that the reason the vaccine roll out looks like its going well is going well is because gov' have left the NHS to do their job. This is the view im getting from a few of my NHS friends any way.
Personally, I think the Government have got it largely right (for once) and I agree it feels like CMO and other scientists have more sway now the mekon has buggered off.
The science is pretty clear here - vaccinate half the population, and you leave the younger half still susceptible (less likely to be admitted or die, but susceptible). Assume that perhaps 10-20% of this half have had it already. That leaves a pool of 40% (26M) of the population of presumably young and healthy, but susceptible people to infect when you release the brakes.
Now back to normal and R of 3-4, infect about 50% quickly and that would generate about 15M cases. If only a (very) small fraction (1/1000) need hospitals, things could get a bit busy with 15,000 admissions on a rapid basis. That's an optimistic evaluation.
I think the recommendation look very reasonable. A five week spacing is important here. Two weeks to watch cases decline. a week to follow admissions and a week to follow deaths. Add an extra week to confirm the trend in all three metrics and make a decision. That makes a huge amount of sense and you can see the thinking in the simple summary graphs.
Inevitably Pretty much every single paper lists the dates or counts them down on the front pages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-56163189
Given their crap track record they should be commended for recognising they're crap and letting local NHS Trusts get on with it.
They will no doubt take all the glory but if people are getting jabbed it's a small price to pay.
"Success has many Fathers, failure is an orphan"
Hi TiRed - at this point in time do you have an estimate of what percentage of the population has actually had Covid-19?
Assume that perhaps 10-20% of this half have had it already. That leaves a pool of 40% (26M) of the population of presumably young and healthy, but susceptible people to infect when you release the brakes.
And as the article I linked yesterday put it - buying the virus 26M lottery tickets, no surprise if it wins the jackpot and comes up with a nasty variant.
This will be data driven but it seems that half the population are ignoring that part and are now booking holidays etc based on those dates alone. Bojo needed to present this ‘roadmap’ as a deal between Gov and the public. If the public continue to follow the rules, get vaccinated etc, then the good stuff will follow
I think you give the public too much credit. Sure a lot of the messaging has been confusing but also a large number of the public are complete ****ing idiots.
As always, thanks @TiRed for explaining so succinctly where things lie. It's so easy to lose your way in the hyperbole and spin. Of course, this won't stop those numpties booking cheap non-refundable easyjet flights to more risky countries and being left high and dry if things change. I await their voxpop on the evening news from Heathrow with weary schadenfreude.
Most of the population aren't really interested in “The News”. That’s become abundantly obvious on many issues.
JoePud - completely agree re the NHS. I just wanted to point out it goes well beyond GPs.
My areas vaccition site is “GP led”. It’s actually run by a furloughed 747 pilot!
The expected rush of holiday enquiries hasn't happened today this may be due to our particular clientele being mainly well educated and older than the norm.
There's a tendency in our News reporting to be glib about qualification of how it's going to be possible to relax restrictions. 10 o'clock news last night on BBC was all these are the dates to begin and then glossing over that the dates are only possible if some strict conditions are met. Is this to fool the gullible, poor news reporting or to draw the fire from the CRG?
Hi TiRed – at this point in time do you have an estimate of what percentage of the population has actually had Covid-19?
Less than 20%. Note that serology now has to factor in proportion vaccinated. But to all intents vaccination = past infection as a means of protection
It’s actually run by a furloughed 747 pilot!
People that are used to command in complex systems are going to be good running other systems shokka! - and technically is the pilot now an ex-747 pilot? Since they've all been decommissioned 🙁 I'm immensely impressed by your volunteering btw. When things are back to normal (and they will return, I am in no doubt), you'll be able to say you made a difference.
And hot off the press! I think I have evidence of vaccine efficacy where I thought I would. early days, but COVID deaths in males 75+ seem to have a signal of interest. Code checking now...
That’s good news!
Yes, sadly correct as the jumbos have been turned into Pepsi cans now 😞.
The number of volunteers stepping up is amazing. On top of all the people on a local level helping out in all sorts of ways throughout the pandemic.
10 o’clock news last night on BBC was all these are the dates to begin and then glossing over that the dates are only possible if some strict conditions are met. Is this to fool the gullible, poor news reporting or to draw the fire from the CRG?
All the assumptions in the models are on the cautious side - lower vaccine uptake and effectiveness, no seasonal benefit etc - so everything would have to be worse than expected for us to fail the "tests"
Is it a real concern that once it runs through the younger ages again it does mutate into something much more dangerous to them? I know the Spanish flu was different, but it ended up killing multiple age groups at different stages in the pandemic.
I was really hoping that the rule of 6 would return sooner 🙁
You'll be meeting up outside in groups like that very soon stcolin... it's just indoors meet-ups that need to be avoided for longer. Wise I think.