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100k? It's only 3 weeks ago the UK was hitting 60k....
Because until Biden took over they were basically ruled by a Covid Denier
The US has ordered more vaccines and stumped up more risk money than anyone else, and all before Sleepy Joe assumed office.
100k? It’s only 3 weeks ago the UK was hitting 60k….
Yes, and per capita we are easily outperforming the USA (in the bad way), and in fact most of the rest of the world.
UK ~ 1500 deaths / 1M population
USA ~ 1300 deaths / 1M population
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
Obviously there are huge differences between the USA and UK (geographically, demographically, socially etc), but I don't think we (the UK as a whole) are in a position to be critical of the way it has been handled over there, as tempting as it is.
The US has ordered more vaccines and stumped up more risk money than anyone else, and all before Sleepy Joe assumed office.
So Trump handled the pandemic well? Ordering vaccines was a no brainer (sorry EU) but it's hard to credit Trump with one single thing that helped the US fight Covid?
Oh, closing air borders to some countries. I think that's covered his positive input? That was totally negated by anything else he did, mind.
Can this be true?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/31/uk-covid-patients-are-dying-needlessly-due-to-unfounded-fears-about-ventilators
There was a scifi story many years ago The Marching Morons.
It now feels like a prediction.
^^ The amount of misinformed out there is huge. It stuns me. I occasionally dip my toe into FB or Twitter and always come away dispirited.
It was only recently that it dawned on me that there are millions out there that don't watch the news, Gov briefings etc and get all their "information" from social media. That explains so much.
That said, I have relied on this thread to actually hear the news behind the news. Anyone that has followed this thread will know it's a world away from getting the analysis from a chiropodist on FB though.👍
Remember early March last year? We knew this new wave was coming, and the UK was feeling its way through the strategy. We thought it was a serious illness that affects the lungs (only). Nightingale Hospitals were being imagined and JCB were offering to make ventilators. I even remember learning about how we could attach four patients to the same ventilator if needs be. Most people thought we’d get through this thing if only there were enough ventilators to go round.
Then we (fairly quickly) understood that covid was far more complex than that. In severe cases, people suffer multi-organ failure, laryngeal oedema, extensive thrombotic complications and if they survive their first few days on ITU, they rarely ‘bounce back’ and many have extensive fibrotic lung disease and require long ITU stays.
We also learnt that people could survive far longer without ventilation than we have seen with other conditions. Leaving someone with very low levels of oxygen is often safer than intubating them.
But of course all that is known by ITU teams, who are also massively stretched - so they don’t offer someone a ventilator bed lightly! So if you get an ITU doctor telling you that intubation is your best chance, it’s probably your only chance.
I’m sure somewhere, someone has refused ventilation for (what I would consider) daft reasons - as they do for all sorts of treatments, even life-saving ones - but I haven’t heard of it happening regularly here.
does that mean that anyone who has actually been infected can also be considered to be the same status as someone who was actually vaccinated?
There's been a study of NHS front line staff and yes it does seem that catching SARS-COV2 does confer immunity for a period of some months. From memory I think its 4-5 months and counting. If that's the case 3 M people in the UK have given positive tests and I reckon we can at least double that for those who had it and didn't know or had it and didn't get tested so that means we can probably add about another 6 M people to those already vaccinated who now have some immunity so we have around 15 M of the population or around one quarter vaccinated one way or another which is pretty good going.
@superficial What a difference ten months makes. How fast science and clinical medicine has moved is breathtaking (Not quite blockbuster film speed, but close).
But the Government could be more open about vaccination. We are vaccinating those who would die. Then those most at risk of admissions, then those who are older, then those at less risk, and finally, perhaps, those at little or no risk. The sweetspot for relaxation of controls assuming coverage remains (and it is only an assumption, albeit backed up with some in vitro data already), is likely to be when those doing the transmitting (young) are meeting those protected from disease (their parents and their grandparents). It is not going to be an easy call.
I haven't done the sums, but others have tried to make predictions. For deaths and admissions to show solid vaccine-driven falls (and we are looking), I think 33-50% coverage is a good point for solid relaxation - think Tier 3. After Easter at least. I remain skeptical about transmission, and herd immunity. But this is not the most important reason for vaccination.
Sobering to read.
As far as misinformation and the utter despicable nature of a few out there:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-wales-55870353
He lives about 15 minute walk from me I would think. I don't know him though, I'm glad to say.
Its not been revealed why he sent a fake explosive to a plant being readied to manufacture vaccines but I could make a reasonable guess.
There’s been a study of NHS front line staff and yes it does seem that catching SARS-COV2 does confer immunity for a period of some months. From memory I think its 4-5 months and counting. If that’s the case 3 M people in the UK have given positive tests and I reckon we can at least double that for those who had it and didn’t know or had it and didn’t get tested so that means we can probably add about another 6 M people to those already vaccinated who now have some immunity so we have around 15 M of the population or around one quarter vaccinated one way or another which is pretty good going.
So if that is the case then having ~25% of the population immune (or at least not likely to be seriously ill) by virtue of vaccination or having had the virus previously has got to mean that very soon we should start to see a significant change (downwards) in the amount of people in hospital or dying.
Hoping for some input here...
MrsRock is a support assistant. School commits to rapid tests on Mondays and Thursdays. Last Thursday, a TA in her class bubble tested +ve at the school test so the class and bubble was closed and she was told to isolate for 10 days as per PHE guidance. They sent them home with a couple of tests with the suggestion to keep to the test schedule. She has done one today (Monday) and it has returned -ve. So is she safe, out of the woods and unlikely to develop it?
that very soon we should start to see a significant change (downwards) in the amount of people in hospital or dying.
Dying, certainly, I think hospitals will be brimmed for a while though.
So is she safe, out of the woods and unlikely to develop it?
Incubation can be longer than that post-exposure, and false negatives are a possibility, so keep to the isolation schedule for now.
has got to mean that very soon we should start to see a significant change (downwards) in the amount of people in hospital or dying
We should be seeing that due to current social distancing measures anyway. Trying to work out how much the vaccinations are helping is well beyond my ken. And we need to understand that to plan reopening.
I know, spectator.
Some graphs about how vaccination will affect virus numbers, might be of interest.
Approx 14% of country have had a shot.
Total recorded cases are near 4m. Possibly 8m real cases. About 11%.
Don't know what the overlap between groups is.
So we could have 14% immunity, or 25% immunity.
Split the difference, call it 20%?
I’m sure somewhere, someone has refused ventilation for (what I would consider) daft reasons – as they do for all sorts of treatments, even life-saving ones – but I haven’t heard of it happening regularly here.
This exact thing is the subject of an article in today's Grauniad.
So we could have 14% immunity, or 25% immunity.
Much lower number of people “immune”, but a good proportion of those people safe from COVID-19 hospitalisation or death.
Even in some rich countries there seems to be a shortage of vaccines.
An elderly relative in Switzerland cannot find out anywhere how to get a vaccination.
As a resident there she is supposed to go on line and book. When the chance to book opens, it says all appointments are taken. Her Doctor can't help her and she knows of no one in her age group that have had a vaccination. I am very worried.
There isn’t. It’s not an evidence-based prioritisation.
There are high-risk occupational groups but teachers don’t fall into that category.
This is possibly a corner case, but if a teacher gets ill and spreads it to other teachers, there's presumably a risk to a school's ability to stay open if too many have to isolate at one time.
She has done one today (Monday) and it has returned -ve. So is she safe, out of the woods and unlikely to develop it?
Sorry, but absolutely not. The lateral flow tests are not at all reliable on an individual level, and the school should be being very clear on this. A negative result is not anywhere near a guarantee that someone isn't infected. A positive result is pretty likely to be real, but false negatives are common. These tests are great at detecting some cases that otherwise might not be detected, but they're not good enough to prove a negative.
So having a negative result is a good thing - it does increase the probability that she is actually negative, but she should absolutely still follow the isolation rules for the full duration.
Lateral flow test?
My eldest son has one every week- if clear, come in; if not, go home and get a 'proper' test.
Last Monday, lateral flow showed +ve; went home; had proper test on Wednesday with -ve result; had further proper test on Saturday - waiting for result before going to work.
Both parents vaccinated yesterday
Just a glimmer of hope I can see them again
Good stuff piemonster.
@bunnyhop the NHS booking for vaccination is easy and clear here in Calderdale. The NHS is amazing and it’s significantly better having a single healthcare provider in this situation. Lots of issues in countries - even with good healthcare - where there are multiple insurers and providers. Our borough has done all over 75s through GPs and has a big vaccination centre for health and social care staff and volunteers which they are cracking through at a rate of knots.
Clover - that's great, but it's not helping my much loved relative in Switzerland.
Just read a really scary artical about heart issues in folks who had even really mild covid. Apparently it's such an issue that US college sports are stipulating anyone who has tested positive needs to have a heart scan prior to competing again as the affect would be more likely seen during exertion, and they don't want previous healthy athletes dropping dead after apparently recovering
For a forum full of cyclists this isn't great news for us..
Just read a really scary artical
Link?
is that the SA variat could now be in the UK? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55889391.
Tbh there are a tons or reports out there. This isn't particularly recent, but it's the one I stumbled across
As you will read, it's not just the serious cases that result in heart damage (which I assumed would be the case).
If I ended up in hospital with covid I'd probably expect to be royally goosed for some time after, but if I got a week of mild symptoms and felt fine afterwards I'd probably not think twice about getting back on the bike soon afterward, assuming I felt I had the energy. Now I'm thinking I'd be inclined to think that would not be a good idea.
This quote stood out for me...
scientists at University Hospital Frankfurt’s Centre for Cardiovascular Imaging had published a notable study, using MRI scans to study the hearts of 100 patients who had contracted the virus in the spring and since recovered. While this group of people were relatively young – the average age was 49 – and mainly reported mild symptoms while they had Covid-19, the scans revealed that 78 of them had abnormal structural changes to their hearts. Whether these problems dissipate with time remains to be seen.
Junior tested negative and so did Madame, I didn't think it worth a test for myself given my lack of social contact at present. Which says you can spend a day unmasked in the same room as colleague who is symptomatic the following day and not catch it, or that junior has some immunity already. His colleague's mother, father and uncle have all tested positive.
Admittedly a bit of history I appreciate, but nonetheless it made me stop and think
BBC Covid: What’s the problem with the EU vaccine rollout?
So, what about the EU vaccine scheme?
The UK could have joined it last year, while it was still in a transition phase with the EU (and following its rules), but it chose not to.
If it had, the UK might not have been able to do as many deals with vaccine companies.
The terms of EU scheme state that participating countries must, "agree not to launch their own procedures for advance purchase of [a] vaccine with the same manufacturers", that the EU has an agreement with.However, the German government - a participant - signed its own side deal with Pfizer for 30 million extra doses in September.
In January, the European Commission refused to say whether this had broken the terms of the EU scheme.
Anyone had a knock on the door from your local South African strain testing team yet? Some top post-event stable door closing, given that it seems to be all over the shop.
Anyone had a knock on the door from your local South African strain testing team yet?
Does South African strain mean its come from South Africa, or is it the local virus thats mutated to the same Genome Sequencing?
It's come from SA, via our precaution and quarantine-free airport system during December. Now we are getting community spread. Let's hope it can't outcompete our own super-strain.
It's vanishingly unlikely that any of our strains could mutate to appear identical to the SA one.
Part of me thinks that the SA variant is what has triggered the (very) late closing of international travel for leisure and the hotel-bound isolation rules. They probably knew it was already here so had to be seen to do something before they had a flood of it.
As usual, too little too late.
Let’s hope it can’t outcompete our own super-strain.
Yep...I Can't believe I'm actually rooting for the UK variant now!
How do they test for strains normally?
Is it everyone getting tested? Only hospitalisation people? A random sample?
I can certainly see a chain of infection running through a succession of younger/healthier people for a month without any of them ending up in a hospital.
Also I've lost track, is the Saffa one more deadly, more transmissible or vaccine resistant? or all 3?
It’s come from SA, via our precaution and quarantine-free airport system during December. Now we are getting community spread. Let’s hope it can’t outcompete our own super-strain.
That combined with it becoming the next evolutionary stepping stone.
From the latest 5pm Briefing it's looking like the government is taking this very seriously. I'm assuming the focused community testing post codes are the ones where no link to SA has been found.
Why can we call it the South African variant but not the Chinese coronavirus? 😀
How do they test for strains normally?
I was under the impression the genome testing was done by the labs when doing standard tests, that's why they could tell us a few months back that 200 odd of the 300 odd strains had came from folks going abroad in summer.
How do they test for strains normally?
They don’t. The pcr test is for three genes. If the S gene is missing, that’s a signal of a variant. The UK variant was the overwhelmingly likely strain to be missing that gene reporting (gene is still there but the primer reagent used to amplify it doesn’t stick). We genotype more than any other country and see the code for a small subset of all isolates.
If I am honest, this is evolutionary biology. There’s not a huge amount we can do, even with testing and quarantine to prevent one strain. We couldn’t prevent the spread of the wild type. This is possibly a little more spreadable and a bit more pathogenic. These are relatively small details. Pharmacology doesn’t worry about factors of three.
I’ve looked at the antibody responses against the strains. For our antibody, for Lily, Regeneron and the vaccine sera. I think there will be some cross reactivity and protection against disease. Against spread? Maybe not, who knows? But the vaccine is for herd protection against getting disease and staying out of hospital. And hopefully any cardiovascular sequale
I won’t go there with the cardiovascular challenge that may present at a future date. After a year, I will see a pulmonologist. At least I am not a chicken - even with the vaccine, they don’t live that long! The males, anyway.
The males, anyway.
Cocks!
On the subject of other animals, hamsters can be reinfected with SARS-CoV2 after their first infection. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.30.428920v1. This translated to humans, in the healthcare worker study, where reinfection was rare but non-zero https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545
So one expects the same from vaccines; generate protection, immunity may wane with time, a boost due to exposure to an infectious person providing a boost. Something I linked to right at the beginning with the Dutch study of 10 subjects over 20 years.
I have no doubt that new strains will emerge, but I still think that that initial inoculation is the one that matters. Best to make it a vaccine, since it seems hard to predict who is susceptible to moderate/severe disease, and who will have asymptomatic virus shedding and be done.
@piemonster
Full Member
Both parents vaccinated yesterdayJust a glimmer of hope I can see them again
I just wanted to say that's great news my friend.
Lockdowns work. Well they certainly reduces admissions and deaths A projection of daily admissions and deaths from admissions from yesterday's data. No tests of effects of vaccine, but the first step will be to see these two numbers decouple. The second step will be to see cases decouple from admissions. I'll look at that relationship too. For the record, admissions are modelled, then deaths calculated from admissions rather than fitted. London is a little low. Hopefully that might be a sign...
Work has been a little manic recently, but I think the effects of lockdown are now self-evident - hence the skeptical noise about their efficacy seems to have diminished considerably. Gupta, Yeadon GBD? Debate about the economic and societal costs are, in my view, perfectly valid, but not the efficacy. You will see the North is a little stubborn, perhaps due to the more transmissible UK variant taking hold. But I think you can see the direction things are traveling in. Schools back after Easter is a robust prediction.