This government hasn’t pushed through austerity. It seems to be attempting the opposite.
Im sorry which of the current MPs (including the PM) voted against austerity during the last parliament?
yes its technically a different government but that doesnt change what theyve done in the past
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10999/boris_johnson/uxbridge_and_south_ruislip/votes#welfare
not scheduled to finish until the 27th in devon
My joke is bad enough without you spoiling it with facts
I call BS on that, next Friday is the start of Easter hols and every teacher has been prepping for that since 6th of January
Easter holidays here start on April 3.
EDIT: Get your coat!
Regarding people criticising the ‘politisation’ of the thread; get real. It is very obvious that there are a wide range of possible responses available to the Government, depending on what their objectives are. WHAT their objectives are is what is the political bit; the scientific advisors then assist the politicians on how to best achieve those aims. If you think Boris at al are simply trying to save the most lives then you are being naive; Boris will prioritise the economy over your retired parents and mine, all day long. In his world view it is very much a personal responsibility thing to protect these people. I can see the logic of this; the economy needs to be protected in order to move forward and recover effectively. It seems callous, but it’s economically sound decision making.
The armchair politicians from the political threads are here in force I see. I think the mods need to get a grip of this thread before it becomes the same group of people agreeing with themselves.
We are following similar procedures to many of our neighbours, we will be shutting down when the time is right just like France, Spain, Norway, Denmark, Italy, Germany etc (they are all further along the scale at this point)
Progressive shut down otherwise long term unsustainable/multiple shut downs
We are doing a good job, keep it up.
We are nowhere near the exponential rate of cases seen on the epidemic spike at the moment.
If you start measures now, it does nothing except start people’s annoyance early. If you wait until it really ramps up, then it has more of an effect and hopefully keeps the number of cases requiring critical care under the total number of critical care beds.
maybe, but the question is - how do we avoid being in the same situation as Italy, rather than, say, Japan ?
We lost our business during the chaos that followed the banking crash
What really worries my about this time round is the banking crash really was damage to that "big nebulous concept" of an economy that then had tangible consequences, this isn't, this is actually a real world problem first and foremost.
Im always one to prefer cock-up over conspiracy, (as Grayling isnt in charge of the covid response) in the Tory case most likely callousness over conspiracy
There's a lot to be said for that.
We dont know which route will work out best, that's a 3-4 month judgement at best. I'm in the all stop full stop camp but there are a lot of good points being made against that.
Over the years, based on random stuff you see than any great knowledge, I have wondered if the UK government takes the harder end approach to the greater good. If I was being less generous I might suggest catastrophic change is the modus operandi.
I'm not attributing this to any party just to the ethos of government. From the plan to test the atomic bomb on the Yorkshire Coast to more recently the idea of Liverpool being left to decline. They all seem hard edge approaches.
Not so much a conspiracy more an approach which might have different tolerances. That's more one for the people with a better grasp of foreign and domestic policy over the years.
@alpin - she said some chlidren cried when they heard that their "Confirmation" wasn't going ahead. It's a big deal to little Catholic kids. It's a bit like of a Bar/Bat Mitzvah
We are following similar procedures to many of our neighbours, we will be shutting down when the time is right just like France, Spain, Norway, Denmark, Italy, Germany etc (they are all further along the scale at this point)
Progressive shut down otherwise long term unsustainable/multiple shut downs
Not sure if thats correct
we are at similar rate of infection as Israel, greece, croatia, chzech, ireland & plenty of countries with less cases who have shutdown schools, mass gatherings etc well before us
Of course every country is different regards population density , age & health demographics etc
We are following similar procedures to many of our neighbours
No, we're really not. Jeremy Hunt, Rory Stewart, that shouty director of public health who now works for Bahrain are all saying we're not doing enough. And then we have the chief scientific advisor on telly and radio talking about the completely unproven and untested idea of herd immunity when the lives of millions are at stake. I don't think they are deliberately wanting to kill people, I just think they've given up or think doing something about it is just too much trouble. If our scientists think they know better than the rest of the world, then they should publish all the research and modelling for review so the rest of the world can learn from them. Are they doing that?
The political conspiracy theorists are really spoiling what has been an interesting thread up till recently
The political conspiracy theories are our there precisely because of the mixed messages coming out of Government and media.
It's getting blanket media coverage, there are "experts" popping up all over the place, the advice is wildly conflicting. Either 60% of us need to get it for herd immunity, we'll be fine, carry on or the opposite.
People are confused - they don't know whether to isolate for 7 or 14 days, they look at what's happening elsewhere through the prism of their particular media outlet, they're being told to WFH or just to be more careful and wash hands....
It's the perfect breeding ground for conspiracy theories, rumours, speculation and fake news. And that makes it more difficult following advice because no-one knows what is the correct official advice hence panic buying, businesses and people deciding what to do on an ad-hoc basis...
Kimbers. You want us to follow Croatia but not Germany, is there a good clear reason for that?
Some countries can still contain the virus but if worldwide containment isn't a real possibility anymore then it is still coming so prepare for long shutdowns or different delay tactics across the world
To be fair to Boris if he is following medical and science yogic advice then he is in the clear. If he is overruling them then that is another story and the chief medical officer should be saying so as he had a duty of care above and beyond politics. What is interesting is what the scientific advisors in other countries think of what we are doing. At this stage it is all down to stats. They know it will spread and they can’t control it so they are assuming everyone will get it, quite a lot will die, but if they can make sure the nhs is not overwhelmed then the death rate will be lower. One key thing also is in say Italy how much is the national daily death rate increased by? I bet not a lot. About 1300 people die everyday in the uk so you would have to have huge numbers dying of coronavirus to change the annual numbers. I think they are move bothered about effects on society and the economy than individual deaths.
Are they doing that?
Is any one?
Jeremy Hunt, Rory Stewart,
Neither of whom have anything to loose and a lot to gain by being the anti boris and neither has access to the advice he's being given.
the completely unproven and untested idea
It's all untried and untested. Hell there's STILL debate about Spanish flu.
Couple of blokes at work have had texts off their Teacher wives – schools preparing to shut down from next Friday.
My wife works as the media outlet for the school she works at so has sat in on meetings discussing their action plan. At that school they are making plans to shut down only when advised to by Government - they expected it to be announced yesterday in Boris' speech so they are standing down for the time being and awaiting further revised advice as and when it comes out.
And a colleague's hubby is a lecturer at a local Uni (Leeds) and their official line is the same.
I think there's an element that they don't want to go too soon with banning movement / gatherings / normal way of life.
People will go stir-crazy after a week or two especially if they can't see anything going wrong from their window. Some will start disobeying any curfew, at the exact time that the explosion in transmission is predicted.
So whilst I don't necessarily agree with Boris on lots of things, I suspect a lot of behind-the-scenes people have thought long and hard and come up with this strategy.
Politically, Boris has a lot to lose from a big outbreak. Obviously it will have happened 'on his watch', but more cynically a sizeable chunk of conservative voters will die, and Conservative underfunding of the NHS could be very painfully exposed.
They know it will spread and they can’t control it so they are assuming everyone will get it, quite a lot will die,
If this is the case why have we not seen eleventy trillion dead chinese yet?
People will go stir-crazy after a week or two especially if they can’t see anything going wrong from their window. Some will start disobeying any curfew, at the exact time that the explosion in transmission is predicted.
The interesting thing is you come out of isolation without a test all you know is you had something that put you in isolation, no idea if you have had virus unless it's severe. If you haven't had it you could get it. That would surely encourage people to hold the line?
If this is the case why have we not seen eleventy trillion dead chinese yet?
Isn't China quite locked down?
Mrs Pondo's school are making plans, heard nothing beyond that - odd thing is, a teacher was sent home this week, you'd think that might accelerate things...
-
IF
its is true that the government wants us to acquire herd immunity, then that really is mental
fair enough to do it through vaccination, but through a virus with such a high mortality rate !?!?!?
95% req'd for herd immunity, 4% fatality rate would mean killing nearly 1/3 million people or is maths wrong?
no way that can be the policy
The interesting thing is you come out of isolation without a test all you know is you had something that put you in isolation, no idea if you have had virus unless it’s severe. If you haven’t had it you could get it. That would surely encourage people to hold the line?
I was talking about curfews and mandatory isolation for everyone like they've done in Wuhan / Italy, but yeah it's weird isn't it? As a doctor I could be self-isolating and not knowing whether I've developed immunity or not, before going back in to treat more people with Covid.
Can anyone expand on the current testing strategy? 2 days ago we were ramping up to 10000 tests a day, now we aren’t testing anymore unless you are in hospital?
Can anyone expand on the current testing strategy? 2 days ago we were ramping up to 10000 tests a day, now we aren’t testing anymore unless you are in hospital?
I think testing in the containment phase was so that they could trace patients & isolate them & those theyve been in contact with
problem is that NHS111 & GPs quickly became overwhelmed, so weve moved onto the delay phase , where we only test to confirm & to help with treating the illest
Can anyone expand on the current testing strategy? 2 days ago we were ramping up to 10000 tests a day, now we aren’t testing anymore unless you are in hospital?
There's no point testing. There will be >10,000 suspected cases a day so they can't keep up. There will be less real cases but they have been testing people in contact.
Knowing someone has the virus is now only of use if they are in hospital and need treatement. Otherwise, isolate.
If this is the case why have we not seen eleventy trillion dead chinese yet?
So we trust numbers coming out of the Chinese government more than the behaviour of our own? Dark times indeed.
In seriousness though,
The death toll there isn't exactly miniscule.
They built a hospital in a week.
The whole country shut down.
We don't know it's worked yet and won't until everything is back to normal and has been for a few months.
Return to actual normal is a long long way away, even then, normal isn't our idea of normal.
would mean killing 1/3 million people
As a genuine question, has anyone seen any stats on of the many hundreds of thousands expected to die, how many of them have a life expectancy of over a year any how? I'm not trying to be callous but are we looking at closing on a million extra dead over 12 months or very few extra over 12 months but a lot extra in 3 months?
We are patently NOT taking the same measures as other countries.
It could be our 'rogue outlier genius' moment, or.......
Who's to tell right now, but 'our' approach looks riskier to me.
If this is the case why have we not seen eleventy trillion dead chinese yet?
The Chinese government has a crapload of its own money (that it doesn't have to borrow) that it can hand out to anyone who needs it, and it controls everything. Totally opposite to ours.
FWIW I suspect the government's policy is actually the one that results in the least deaths and the least disruption. In China, the cases more or less stopped rising 2 weeks after their lockdown. That means in the UK the equation is basically:
- How many people can the NHS treat at maximum capacity?
- When will that capacity be reached based on the best models available?
- Lockdown hard 2 weeks before that date.
I'm not an expert but my guess looking at other countries is that the lockdown date is still over a week away.
This actually broadly matches some of the other countries that have already locked down but are a week or so ahead of the UK in cases. We currently look like an outlier because the best time for our reaction is later than in other countries.
Then, after 3-4 weeks, ease restrictions nationally but impose lockdowns locally around cases for a few months until the situation starts to normalise.
In seriousness though,
The death toll there isn’t exactly miniscule.
They built a hospital in a week.
The whole country shut down.
No the death toll is big, but if it cannot be contained and will spread throughout the entire country, the piles of bodies would be visible from space right now.
The Chinese government... Controls everything. Totally opposite to ours
Never a truer word
no way that can be the policy
It's one thing to admit that the whole population is likely to get it, but quite another to encourage that, which from news reports, press conferences and comments from the advisors themselves, seems to be what they're doing. If every other country was doing that it might be a little more assuring, but most other countries are doing exactly the opposite. Hardly a surprise then that conspiracies creep in. Christ, on twitter the words genocide and cull are being used, which while hysterical is incredible in itself that a modern day PM of the UK could even be associated with either of those words.
My employer very sensibly now has a blanket policy that anyone in a household with someone at increased risk should work from home where practicable. Increased risk is defined as over 60, under 2, compromised immune system (e.g. diabetes), pregnant.
I've had conversations with all my staff today and those affected will be working from home. I'm lucky that we already have remote access and an office based job.
Christ, on twitter the words genocide and cull are being used, which while hysterical is incredible in itself that a modern day PM of the UK could even be associated with either of those words.
That would be incredible if the PM's spiritual leader were not a self-proclaimed eugenicist.
Welcome to the laboratory. Your cheese is over there.
but most other countries are doing exactly the opposite.
We're just not at the stage yet, we're sitting at 9 cases per million at the minute.
So we are quite away down, so what they are saying does make sense, I'm pretty wure people will get their wish and we will lock down at some point, does seem a bit early yet.
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I also think the fact that the football leagues have just shut down voluntarily is interesting.
Yesterday there was a clear emphasis that they are thinking of the psychological and behavioural aspect of this outbreak. didn't really take a genius to guess that that football clubs would be the first to panic. So not really any point in issuing and edict that they should when they were always going to do it anyhow.
I think it makes sense that in the earlier stages as much is done as voluntarily as possible, will probably make people more complient with instructions later on when things get a lot more serious.
The idea of coronavirus fatigue is a very real one I think. The very people that are shouting lock everything down now, will probably be the first ones to start complaining about it.
IMO yes. Where on earth are you getting 4% from? It isn't even that high in China, and even that's dividing KNOWN cases by deaths.95% req’d for herd immunity, 4% fatality rate would mean killing nearly 1/3 million people or is maths wrong?
but if it cannot be contained
The word you're missing is indefinitely.
China is HAVING to ease restrictions*, it can't cope with the economic impact of the restrictions, if its enough to genuinely hurt the Chinese economy its enough to sink ours deeper than deep.
If cases stay at actual low level for ever more, then they'll have proved it can be done but no one seems to think that's achievable long term. One missed or imported case and up it all goes again, though in China I doubt you'll hear about it.
FWIW there's been quite a bit of mention about the voluntary shutdown here and why it's not coming from the government. If you're looking at China, Take a look at images and videos from not-Hubei a few days after lockdown in Hubei. It wasn't enforced China wide but it was visible China wide.
*to do that, the numbers need to look good or people simply won't go back to work. those numbers come from Chinese agencies ultimately. Draw what conclusions you will.
Just listened to the second Sam Harris podcast on the topic.
The expert he had on suggested a death rate of 0.6% maximum based on the best available data (South Korea).
Where did the 95% come from? From what I’ve read, 60-70% is all that’s needed with a virus of this nature. So your figures seem very high. Not that the policy as declared so far doesn’t look cavalier in the extreme. It’ll change soon…
For comparison, standard flu is 0.1%.
Most countries have a similar plan to ours dazh. We are following many of our neighbouring countries with a very similar progressive shutdown. Germany, France, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Spain are all ahead of our plan and as things progress here we will follow suit. Stopping it is not an option if it cannot be contained which is more or less impossible now
That guardian article is poor dannyh. Norway and Denmark were both further along the scale despite 'low' numbers, per capita they were ahead of us.
Delay phases will be different for many countries from now on.
We’re just not at the stage yet, we’re sitting at 9 cases per million at the minute.
Based on the actual. The question is what is our monitoring and reporting regime compared to others.
Are there any assumed infection rates based on the models for other countries? Ie the 5,000-10,000 assumed undiagnosed. If we knew how many people were in self isolation and where these were clustered we might have more of an idea of where we are. Is there a evidence the Italian leap isn't round the corner? If we aren't testing just self isolating but the Italians were testing everything our leap would pass un acknowledged, except by the rumour mill?
Carry on… carry on…
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1238430799093006336?s=21
Who made the comment about this all so far looking a bit “stiff upper lip” rather than taking sensible measured steps at avoiding speedy transmission? Tend to agree.
There's no doubt many more cases than reported in every country, it's certain the italian numbers are also low, which I think will be true for everyone one, how much will be variable, but the reported numbers will give you an indication of where we are in the timeline.
Norway and Denmark were both further along the scale despite ‘low’ numbers, per capita they were ahead of us
Were they? or were they ahead in testing?
