Our favourite card company "Rosie Made A Thing "sent us this.
0.6% mortality on a 60% infection rate still equates to nearly a quarter of a million deaths in the uk.
Insert weird gameshow 'fail' sound here and then think 'NHS'.
IMO yes. Where on earth are you getting 4% from? It isn’t even that high in China, and even that’s dividing KNOWN cases by deaths.
& this explains why theyve done it that way
shutdown schools
Which in itself isn't a great idea according to the radio this morning.
Either the kid's parents (who may be health workers) take time off or granny looks after them and granny might be over 60. Despite all that kids will still play together and spread it about. ...and for it to work you'd need them off for 16 weeks, not two.
The 60-70pc figures are *worst* case figures. (Although long term it will be to ~100pc in the same way that ~100pc of us have had flu.) Which is why lockdown doesn't work - as soon as the lockdown ends you all get it. What the UK is doing is flattening and lengthening the numbers curve to give the hospitals a fighting chance. That strikes me as a sensible policy.
Based on the actual. The question is what is our monitoring and reporting regime compared to others.
Are there any assumed infection rates based on the models for other countries? Ie the 5,000-10,000 assumed undiagnosed
You've got to assume every serious case is diagnosed as it requires hospital treatment. "You" will have data from places like South Korea and China where testing has been more wide spread to show the number of mild (eg not requiring hospitalisation) cases per serious case. Extrapolating from that is easy enough and accurate enough for planning purposes, even if it's not very good for science or the Internet.
British Airways are warning of job losses.
Is it time for universal basic income to be introduced as an emergency measure?
I really don't think universal / tax credits can cover off what's required. There isnt enough slack in the system. It's too complex and it would be trying to do more with less resources. Claims up and an associated reduction in staff numbers due to virus.
A simpler system to get money out, accepting it will not be more open to abuse but more supportive to people.
290 more cases
95% req’d for herd immunity, 4% fatality rate would mean killing nearly 1/3 million people or is maths wrong?
That's a 4% fatality rate of those infected, which wouldn't be the entire population of the UK. China has had 80,000 cases in a population of 1.4 billion.
Extrapolating from that is easy enough and accurate enough for planning purposes, even if it’s not very good for science or the Internet.
Sounds reasonable
oldagedpredator
Subscriber
British Airways are warning of job losses.Is it time for universal basic income to be introduced as an emergency measure?
I really don’t think universal / tax credits can cover off what’s required. There isnt enough slack in the system. It’s too complex and it would be trying to do more with less resources. Claims up and an associated reduction in staff numbers due to virus.
A simpler system to get money out, accepting it will not be more open to abuse but more supportive to people.
Dunno, think there will need to be a rethink somewhere down the line though. At the minute I'm alright, I've got this month and next months wages sorted, and a bit of contingency beyond that, but if there's a serious economic effect I can see things drying up in quick order. Being self employed I'll be gubbed.
Removing the minimum floor income on UC will help a bit if I need to claim, but it's not really enough to survive on if this last for a protracted period.
Is it time for universal basic income to be introduced as an emergency measure?
Depending on how long this goes on I think we're probably heading toward some form of universal stimulus or bailout in the form of cash handouts. All they have to do is print money and distribute it. I think when we come out of this the economy and the politics around it will look very different.
Either the kid’s parents (who may be health workers) take time off or granny looks after them and granny might be over 60. Despite all that kids will still play together and spread it about. …and for it to work you’d need them off for 16 weeks, not tw
If most employers remain open, then kids will probably be pooled in among parents. That's what I would have done a few years ago, before my eldest reached 16. Monday the kids go to Sarah and Marks' house, Tuesday all the kids go to Jo's, Wednesday all the kids go to Adrian and Eves', Thursday they go to my house. No need for all parents to take time off work, or to put elderly grandparents at risk, just a group of parents to arrange child minding among themselves and one parent at a time to look after them.
Of course, this then allows the virus to spread among the population in exactly the same way as if they were in school.
My wife is a school governor - it's interesting that most of the panicky stuff she is telling me originates in the school.
All they have to do is print money and distribute it.
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All they have to do is print money and distribute it.
That's a spectacularly bad idea.
It didn't work if Ln Germany in the 30s, or Zimbabwe more recently, or anywhere else its ever been tried. It's pretty much how to guarantee rampant inflation.
In theory you need to take money out not put it in, so what little people have has greater value. Like most theories though it would be utterly rubbish and not work in practice.
That’s a spectacularly bad idea.
...but a spectacularly good troll - hooked you and I. 🙁
…but a spectacularly good troll – hooked you and I.
It is the second time he's said it though...
That’s a spectacularly bad idea.
If we try to run the economy with business as usual, yes. But this is going to require some novel and radical solutions. The German govt has already offered a blank cheque to businesses to keep them running, and presumably paying staff. The UK has said cost is not a consideration. The Fed found 1.5trillion down the back of the settee to support markets. Where do you think this money comes from?
Something will have to be done economically - we are going to end up with huge numbers of businesses going under.
I wonder if boris has the balls to go to the EU and ask for an extension to the transition period, otherwise with the double whammy we'll be irritrivably ****ed
In other news Wales v scotland finally cancelled,. which is probably the right decision - though i was looking forward to watching that
Where do you think this money comes from?
Borrowing mostly.
Where do you think this money comes from?
Bonds (borrowing), borrowing and reserves. Its emphatically not new money.
Of course, this then allows the virus to spread among the population in exactly the same way as if they were in school.
Not the same way at all. Your example is kids from five households being in regular close contact with each other and their parents and siblings. Now work out how many pupils, staff and members of the public they would be mingling with at and on the way to their schools.
otherwise with the double whammy we’ll be irritrivably ****
The bigger the upset, the bigger the opportunity. Delaying Brexit is only seems as a useful thing by those with a damage limitation view of it. The key decision makers either want the damage for the opportunities that arise from it, or are useful idiots still denying it’ll be damaging (at least in the short term)… why would they delay?
It is the second time he’s said it though…
Good point. A very average troll. 🙂
Borrowing mostly.
And what's the traditional way of reducing a national debt (aside from destroying public services)? Governments have been inflating their way out of debt crises for as long as banks have insisted. The novel thing in this instance is that it's going to be a global problem, so should help in finding a global solution.
Giro D'Italia postponed, which basically means cancelled.
I wonder if boris has the balls to go to the EU and ask for an extension to the transition period, otherwise with the double whammy we’ll be irritrivably ****
That's possibly one silver lining, without being in the [oh so quick to react] EU we'll actually be free(er) to do as we see fit in terms of state aid and things, whether we will and whether that's a good thing remains to be seen mind.
EU states are doing what they want.
That’s a 4% fatality rate of those infected, which wouldn’t be the entire population of the UK. China has had 80,000 cases in a population of 1.4 billion.
Im saying that if the government want to get herd immunity that a huge chunck of the population would need to be infected, quick check and COVID19 has R0 of 2-3, so ~70% of population need to be infected to get herd immunity
...and all this from 6 initial cases in Wuhan and a local government trying to pretend there was nothing new going on. The Graun had a story yesterday on modelling suggesting quarantine of Wuhan even 2 weeks earlier would have reduced the number of cases by 95%. It didn't mention whether that 95% would have grown incrementally to the current level, mind
Governments have been inflating their way out of debt crises for as long as banks have insisted
You know that's pretty much exactly how Germany paid for the first world war. It didn't do a lot a favours for the German population. The one thing that does consistently solve global recession though is a jolly good war.
I imagine the fallout [not sure if I intend that pun or not] will be much better than 1% death toll.
We are sad to announce that following a decision made by the organisers of Record Store Day, the event will be postponed to June 20th. #RSD20 Full statement on our website here:
— Record Store Day UK (@RSDUK) March 13, 2020
TWITTER.COM More importantly kelvin, it seems to have postponed FGF
EU we’ll actually be free(er) to do as we see fit in terms of state aid and things, wh
EU have said theyll waive state aid rules & aid packages etc
Ursula said yesterday theres £30bn available in the short term
Ta Kimbers, will see if I can find a non paywalled report
Is it time for universal basic income to be introduced as an emergency measure?
Conservatives are the party of “business” (or so they claim) and why you propose is something Labour wanted to bring in.... but you didn’t vote for them so you’re not going to get it are you.
BA announcing job losses is the tip of the iceberg IMO... and plenty of people will be forced into Zero Hour Contracts to stay alive and out of debt.
But that’s what was voted for, so that’s what you’ve got.
But that’s what was voted for, so that’s what you’ve got
Maybe a bit unfair to blame a global pandemic on people who don't agree with you.
it seems to have postponed FGF
Bananas.
dangeourbrain
Subscriber
Ta Kimbers, will see if I can find a non paywalled report
sign up you get some free articles
More detail from Patrick Vallance explaining the UK Govt approach. Confirms a couple things I was wondering last night about reason for Herd Immunity. Obvs I get the whole thing about flattening the curve etc to move it to the Summer. There is also another couple things to consider
This is quite likely, I think, to become an annual virus, an annual seasonal infection.
If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he said. The government is concerned that if not enough people catch the virus now, it will re-emerge in the winter, when the NHS is already overstretched.
THEGUARDIAN.COM Interesting that bolsonara has the virus and that he was in a face to face meeting with trump on 7th march.
I believe that Trump has it! It will be denied, the positive test will be buried and any medical staff present will be discredited and suppressed. He ll disappear to mar a Lago for a few weeks to recover and deny he has it as it's a sign of weakness. Or he ll die. He is in the high risk demograph and possibly has underlying health problems due to his big Mac diet. You heard it first here folks
Removing the minimum floor income on UC will help a bit if I need to claim, but it’s not really enough to survive on if this last for a protracted period.
Does UC work like Tax Credits - initial assessment made on previous year's income? If your income over the year goes up above the one your payouts are calculated on you are asked to pay it back. It would seem more like a lot of people are going to effectively end up with a loan that they will need to pay back.
Anyone with savings is going to have to chew through those before they qualify for any benefit? Yes savings are for situations like this as well as fun stuff. Potentially this could chew through what people had set aside for retirement.
Could have a financial aftershock the actual event goes through?
Anyone with savings is going to have to chew through those before they qualify for any benefit? Yes savings are for situations like this as well as fun stuff. Potentially this could chew through what people had set aside for retirement.
yes, you dont qualify for UC if you have savings of £16k? or more
I believe that Trump has it! It will be denied, the positive test will be buried and any medical staff present will be discredited and suppressed. He ll disappear to mar a Lago for a few weeks to recover and deny he has it as it’s a sign of weakness. Or he ll die. He is in the high risk demograph and possibly has underlying health problems due to his big Mac diet. You heard it first here folks
He will beat it like nobody else could, he's an expert in beating virus's and the virus is weak, like the democrats.
The twonk in chief has said there should be no unnecessary travel.......which will be lifted at about 3pm this afternoon when he wants to play golf at Mar-A-Largo. Probably the real reason he didn't include the UK in the travel ban......his golf courses shouldn't have to suffer
yes, you dont qualify for UC if you have savings of £16k? or more
what counts as savings in this regard? Does having both savings and debts offset or not?
If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he said.
Be interesting to see the basis for that statement. Is it consistent with previous experience of, say, SARS ?
