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They don’t predict 250k in the UK, they say that’s the 2 year do nothing scenario.
Page 13, "do nothing", minimum 410k deaths, max 550k deaths, depending on the R0.
250k is when "assuming infinite ICU availability" which clearly is not the case.
Page 13, “do nothing”, minimum 410k deaths, max 550k deaths, depending on the R0.
250k is when “assuming infinite ICU availability” which clearly is not the case.
Thanks.
Which takes us back to the original question...
molgrips ...
(Sorry I saw your Q... paraphrasing "who are the WHO experts", I'm not scrolling back to find it)
Authors are all referenced and peer reviewed but I suspect me copy/pasting names from them is as pointless to you as me.
This falls under GLOPID
https://www.glopid-r.org/about-us/members/
You can click through...
GLOPID
Chair is:
BIOGRAPHY OF YAZDAN YAZDANPANAH
Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Professor of Infectious Disease, Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital and Paris Diderot University, France
Yazdan Yazdanpanah is currently the Head of Infectious Disease department at Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital and Professor of Medicine at Paris Diderot University, France. He is Director of the DeSCID team « Decision Science In Infectious Disease Prevention, Control and Care » within the Inserm IAME UMR1137 unit at Paris Diderot University. He is also the Coordinator of the REACTing network (REsearch and ACTion targeting emerging infectious diseases) of INSERM wich aims to coordonate french research actions during the outbreaks.
Yazdan Yazdanpanah became an MD from the Lille School of Medicine, France in 1996. He qualified from the same institution first as a hepato- gastro-enterologist in 1996 and next an infectious disease specialist in 2002. He obtained a Master of Science degree in epidemiology from the Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, US in 2000, and a Ph.D degree in public health from the Bordeaux School of Public Health in 2002. In 2006, he became Professor of Infectious Disease. His research interests include the clinical epidemiology of HIV and viral hepatitis, and the pharmaco-economics of antimicrobial agents. Professor Yazdanpanah has published extensively in peer-reviewed journals and makes frequent presentations at numerous national and international meetings.
zilog
Why can’t medical/drugs research be undertaken by Governments pooling resources and/or rich not-for-profit trusts like Gates/Buffet, rather than private companies/shareholders lining their profits? Maybe we will see a shift.
Funnily enough the Gates foundation does contribute to research... leading to a whole load of conspiracy theories on COVID-19
“who are the WHO experts”
They're saying "test, test, test" which to the layman seems obvious, yet very few countrys are doing widespread testing. So there must be some missing information that explains why few countries are doing widespread testing.
I suspect testing takes a lot of time and resource and has to be done in a lab. So for that reason it's not practical to do it widely and when you get a result it's a few days out of date.
Plus of course it's a snapshot. The tested person could catch CV 5 minutes later that day or recover from it. There was talk on R4 this morning of a faster simpler test that can be widely deployed.
A test the tells you if someone has had it strikes me as far more useful, who knows if or when that will arrive.
All of the above is guessing but I really can't see any other reason why something so obvous isn't happening in Europe.
Which takes us back to the original question…
which is?
Just been to the supermarket. Definitely not much social distancing going on. Complete business as usual. Also lots of overheard talk about 'a lot of fuss about nothing'. If anyone doubts we're going to be fully locked down just go out and have a walk around town.
Why can’t medical/drugs research be undertaken by Governments pooling resources and/or rich not-for-profit trusts
This was in the labour manifesto and everyone laughed at it and said it wasn't feasible.
which is?
This:
DRJ: OK – so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
With my reply with a bit of guesswork:
OOB: We don’t know how many deaths China will have because they hit the pause button.
Italy, they’re on 2978 deaths currently. Progress of the bug is exponential so maybe 250k isn’t that far away for them.
…and the media routinely quote the worst case estimates as ‘the estimates’ ‘cos that sells well.
So I dunno, I’m just following the guidelines and hoping for the best. 🙂
Question for anyone with medical knowledge. Why Is having cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure such a risk factor when you get cornona virus?
Because if the way the virus binds to the Ace2 receptor. Some people on ACE inhibitors may be at greater risk
link to science please?
Just been to the supermarket. Definitely not much social distancing going on. Complete business as usual.
Difficult to social distance when you're in a scrum for the last bag of pasta!
Supermarket was unbelievable earlier, it looked like a cross between Black Friday and Christmas Eve.
link to science please?
Trust me he knows what he's talking about. He's probably a bit busy right now too 😉
link to science please?
Of the binding process? There is no science regarding patients on ACE inhibitors, because as I said, it's not known (hence maybe)
DRJ: OK – so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
Obviously had my wires crossed about 250K being the estimate with mitigation. Apologies for the detour!
here is no science regarding patients on ACE inhibitors, because as I said, it’s not known (hence maybe)
the second bit, I wasn't having a go - as I'm on them, I'm genuinely interested...I've not been able to find any confirmation that it increases risk. Even whether high bp increases the risk or not seems "undecided" - NHS doesn't mention it as a risk factor, but something in the Lancet said it was.
No worries, stay safe !
Interest rate dropped to 0.1%!
so what am I missing. China has had about 4000 deaths. Italy wll have more, but hints that the crisis is near peaking. Imperial predict 250,000 in the UK. Eh ??
With my reply with a bit of guesswork:
OOB: We don’t know how many deaths China will have because they hit the pause button.
Italy, they’re on 2978 deaths currently. Progress of the bug is exponential so maybe 250k isn’t that far away for them.
hmm.
Wuhan region on full military style lockdown, stopped at 3250 dead, region population 11 mil. China will be looking very hard at any suspect new cases when they start opening up. They may have another outbreak. They're building more beds and testing facilities. They're expecting to 'manage' this in the provinces.
Italy, population are relied on to behave - but don't behave, result, the virus is everywhere. They're at 3k dead now. What their own internal predictions are, I don't know, or how the imperial modelling could be applied. Their country serves as a good model as to what will happen here. Probably have similar adherence to the government advice too. Italian population size roughly the same as here.
Italy went into full lockdown 10/3/20. If we go into full lockdown right now this moment, we are still only a week "ahead" of them. Which we won't. The longer we delay, the more die. It beggars belief that we're still seeing stories about Italy as if the same could not happen here, and yet it is exactly what is happening here.
Progress isn't exponential - see 'logistic' function.
Hmmm, had been thinking about taking out a loan for a campervan! Gotta find those positives.
Italy, population are relied on to behave – but don’t behave, result, the virus is everywhere. They’re at 3k dead now. What their own internal predictions are, I don’t know, or how the imperial modelling could be applied. Their country serves as a good model as to what will happen here.
That's DrJ's question, it's a good model for us, yet our prediction is 250k if we had infinate respirators, meanwhile for Italy:
IF the rate of infection has turned past the half way mark, the death toll will continue to rise for another two weeks (or however long the “average” severe case runs for). That could put Italy at anywhere up to 20000 deaths. Then they have the far side of the curve to traverse. This will double the figures, but, the end is in sight.
Anyway, sounds like nobody knows the answer. What actually happens, time will tell.
link to science please?
Derek Lowe is always worth a read... Midway between layman and specialist. If you don't know, he writes a nice blog on drug discovery as a Medicinal Chemist
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/17/angiotensin-and-the-coronavirus
2). The above is evidence that strict lockdown is effective but no one is sure if there will be waves once it’s lifted (China & SK haven’t seen the follow-on waves some are predicting
An example of something that works in practice but not in theory.
3). The Imperial College modelling is using too pessimistic assumptions, real world data is not matching it so far
Nassim Nicholas Taleb the Black Swan Event author thinks the virus modeling being used in the uk is on a par with the treasury economic forecaster before 2008 crash.
That man really is a complete psychopath, isn't he?
He's dedicated his entire life to causing as much misery and suffering as possible, preferably to the poorest and most vulnerable in society
A total and utter ****!!!
we all knew IDS was a ****, nothing new there.
yet our prediction is 250k if we had infinate respirators
That was "do nothing" w.r.t. social distancing (etc), i.e. let it rip through the population.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel addressed the nation on television on Wednesday, which she has previously only done for her annual New Year message.
"The situation is serious. Take it seriously. Not since German reunification, no, not since World War Two has our country faced a challenge that depends so much on our collective solidarity," she said.
That was a brave reference.
The government has also banned cycling outside in France.
paraphrasing “who are the WHO experts”
No I meant do you know who the UK experts are?
I think the reason we aren't testing is that our under-resourced NHS cannot afford the manpower to do that many tests. Guessing that we are concentrating on testing those presenting with severe symptoms.
The government may be listening to its advisers, which I suspect they are because they are taking part in the PCs, but it's probably also stopping them from explaining everything fully i.e. we're quite ****ed and we can't do what we need to because of chronic under-investment in the NHS for so long because that would be politically undesirable.
Of the binding process? There is no science regarding patients on ACE inhibitors, because as I said, it’s not known (hence maybe)
Interesting. I had read that but as Nick says it wasn't proven and folks were saying the verall risk is greater if you stop taking them.
Is the general risk with folks with cardiovascular issues who aren't on those drugs that basically the heart gets put under far too much stress trying to pump oxygen and gives up?
No I meant do you know who the UK experts are?
Sorry, mis-understanding. Some thread indexing issues so I'd seen it but misread.
The government may be listening to its advisers, which I suspect they are because they are taking part in the PCs, but it’s probably also stopping them from explaining everything fully i.e. we’re quite **** and we can’t do what we need to because of chronic under-investment in the NHS for so long because that would be politically undesirable.
When the PM can't read a 2 page memo and waves everything away as irritating detail then ???
Don't know if you every read the CAIB (Columbia Accident Investigation) or shortened comments from Tufte... synopis...
https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/caib
Read the as information is filtered up para
Derek Lowe is always worth a read… Midway between layman and specialist. If you don’t know, he writes a nice blog on drug discovery as a Medicinal Chemist
Thanks for that....just about followed it 😀
mrmonkfinger
Member
German Chancellor Angela Merkel addressed the nation on television on Wednesday, which she has previously only done for her annual New Year message.
“The situation is serious. Take it seriously. Not since German reunification, no, not since World War Two has our country faced a challenge that depends so much on our collective solidarity,” she said.
That was a brave reference.
presumably talking about the aftermath rather than enacting the war...
@mariner - Taleb is often quoted as some kind of visionary but he's not (he's just a very naughty economist).
I think a lot of his work is not that ground-breaking as what he's often referring to in pseudo-laymans terms, can usually be described as epistemic and aleatory risk associated with the system, or event, that he's discussing. Indeed the very concept of Black Swans is crap, there's loads of the buggers in New Zealand 😉
It has even led to people bastardising the term and now people talk about grey-swan events. FFS !
Jesus.
Just worked out the logistic function for Italy.
Assumptions:
Assumed today is the point where new cases start dropping back (inflection). i.e. before today the cases were increasing exponentially, going forward the curve looks like the first half in reverse.
Extrapolated back from the current death toll to total cases 12 days ago.
Assumed 1% mortality
Assumed three day doubling rate, which certainly applied during early case detection, but this may be too aggressive, a four day period might be more appropriate.
Total dead 104k.
With four day doubling, about half that.
****.
Some people have no real idea of what's going on.
My friend asked her parents if they needed anything as she was braving the supermarket.
This is their shopping list......
LETTUCE X 2 (PREF LITTLE GEMS NOT THE FLOPPY ONE)
BROCCOLI
CABBAGE (PREF POINTED ONE, NOT SAVOY)
LEEKS
ONIONS (NOT TOO SMALL BUT NOT TOO BIG)
BASIL POT (CHECK LEAVES)
MUSHROOMS
PEARS (PREF CONFERENCE, NOT WILLIAMS AND NOT TOO RIPE)
2 BANANAS
BON MAMAN BITTER ORANGE MARMALADE
MARIGOLD SUISSE BOUILLON TUB
KNORR BEEF STOCK CUBES
YOGURTS X 3 (NOT THOSE GREEK TOTAL ONES)
BENECOL RASPBERRY
BENECOL PEACH & APRICOT
DOUBLE CREAM – MEDIUM SIZE
WAFER THIN AIR DRIED HAM X 2
PIZZA EXPRESS HOUSE SALAD DRESSING
FOOD BIN LINERS
MOZZARELLA SLICES IN RED PACKET
WALNUT PIECES (NOT HALVES, THEY ARE IN A YELLOW PACKET)
DIGESTIVES
HOT CROSS BUNS
MIXED BAG OF FUN SIZE FAMILY FAVOURITES (SHOULD INCLUDE MALTESERS/MILKY WAY ETC BUT NOT BOUNTY)
WHITE WINE (I WOULD PREFER TORRETTA DI MONDELLI PINOT GRIGIO DEL VENEZIE)
WAITROSE PACKET OF MIXED SOFT ROLLS)
BBC news just mentioned that the fatality rate in Italy has overtaken China now but did not give the exact number ... ☹️
p/s: just shown on BBC screen on PM announcement now. The number is 3,045.
My world is getting smaller by the day, no more recreational biking and walking/jogging limited to within 1-2km from home. Beaches and mountains out of bounds. All good measures IMO.
3,405.
worldometers.com has live numbers.
Italy's train started accelerating a long time ago.
It will take a long time to slow it down and stop.
I really do hope the confinement measures have worked to stop the spread of new cases. Their lockdown is at around day #10.
We're not weeks behind France.
Singular. A week, at best.
First time I've bothered to watch the press conference, Boris doesnt inspire confidence does he!
Just worked out the logistic function for Italy.
You really don't want to see the plots 🙁
raybanwomble
No. What scaredypants said and also…
It’s clear that the government were using outdated models and operating from a pandemic guide that was three years old designed for a flu outbreak. The relevant wider British scientific field had not been consulted properly, they had not been approached to verify the accuracy of the initial models that were being used and we had not engaged foreign scientists and their work with the rigor that was needed.
In short, as scaredypants stated, arrogance and hubris.
At this point I'd settle with just following what everyone else is doing and learning from countries a week ahead... this to me seems the main problem we have or perhaps we aren't listening to our own experts as Boris doesn't like the outcome and he won't listen to furrin ones.... basically cos we know best.
Well I’d say speculation and paranoia (although I’d say fear is a more appropriate description) are natural reactions give the craziness of it all. For me the release valve is in talking about it. For others it might be ignoring It, but some of us can’t do that.
As for being uninformed, what are we supposed to do? Just swallow whatever Boris tells us unquestioningly when we can see what’s happening elsewhere?
A week ago we were told letting it spread was the right way to go and that lockdowns, school closures and the rest of it was weeks away and anyone saying otherwise was spreading fear and being hysterical.
And that wouldn’t be a problem other than the fact that this viewpoint is currently resulting in many people carrying on as normal as if they’re already immune to it and endangering everyone else.
it’s not paranoia, it’s fear and worry, and as far as I can see it’s entirely justified.
It's simpler than that (maybe) ... the UK premise (or what we are told) all along has been won't happen here like it did in .... <France, China, Spain, Italy>. All we have/had to do is look at other countries to see what would happen if we didn't take control or exert what control we had.
There is a sticky from Mark up there^^^ 'Direct Appeal from Singletrack'.
If you haven't read I strongly suggest you should.
It's clear that large numbers of people enjoy using the form so let's do something to ensure we can continue doing that.
No. He does not.
As the American chap said about their President, "The first thing we have to do... is to shut this president up right now."
Jesus f*** Christ listen to Boris and Whitty. ‘If enough people distance it will bring down the peak’, ‘there is evidence that lots of people are following our advice’, ‘there is no prospect of limiting movement’. They’re giving all selfish ** the perfect excuse to think it doesn’t apply to them. Once again they’re not taking any responsibility. It’s a ‘say something then hope for the best’ strategy.
Because if the way the virus binds to the Ace2 receptor. Some people on ACE inhibitors may be at greater risk
What does that mean for people on Vit A/D supplements? I'm meant to be on 3000 IU Vit D?
there is no prospect of limiting movement
Despite telling TfL to reduce tube and bus availability iteratively in the coming days to reduce movement, because people aren’t listening to this week’s advice (why would they if they heard last week’s advice?!?).
Telling one thing to the casual follower, while acting entirely contrary to that in reality, might get you elected, but it’s sowing seeds of confusion at a time when that could be very dangerous.
**** me he's a horror show,
Just went for bike ride but I think it will be the last for a while.
Quite worrying reading some of you on here.
UK needs to shut down now, not in a week.
Does anyone know what what is supposed to happen in 12 weeks? Our PM and senior scientific officer don't seem to, despite telling the nation (well those of us who aren't in the pub)
Arbitrary deadlines make things happen.
[ not true of course ]
Does anyone know what what is supposed to happen in 12 weeks?
Too far ahead for my predictions I'm afraid. Seriously. That is currently 42 doubling times. Doubling time will fall with restriction of movement. It needs to fall a long way.
UK needs to shut down now, not in a week.
Many of us were saying this two weeks ago and still not enough is happening. Let’s not panic though, it’ll be ok as long as we only go to the pub once a week instead of three times. Christ if I can stay out of the pub anyone can.
Problem is we don't have any/few restrictions on movement. Just some advice from a criminal who no one trusts
No need for any of us to panic.
Every need for us all to stop/slow the spread.
An easy message… it just needs to be made clear by a competent government.
Perfect information Drac. Contrast with half the population still walking around thinking that closing schools is counter productive, and that we just need to let this spread and make the country magically protect itself through immunity. Oh, and people saying “it’s not in our area, only one here person has died” despite the information about lag and infection spread and a lack of testing.
I think we can all see the problem with that Drac. The objective needs to be less than one on the right hand side. Given the current reserve of undeclared cases hospitals in the UK will still be swamped even with only 2.5 x current infections in 30 days. Social distancing is insufficient.
It needs the obvious 95% less exposure example on there.
People need to do far more, but will resist until given clear and non-contradictory advice to do so.
The government’s slow roll out of the correct and necessary measures may well be designed to reduce resistance to those measures… but it is likely to result in the exact opposite… people not taking them seriously, or acting on older advice and instruction.
Deceptive headline:
South Korea has set up 'phone booths' that can test people for the #coronavirus in just 7 minutes.
That's how long the examination takes, similar to here.
Advise watching today's Vallance/Whitty/science correspondents press conf at Academy of Medical Sciences again, and hyperventilating less...
Social distancing is insufficient.
It isn’t that’s the point if people does as asked.
Wetherspoons still maintaining its income, natural selection will sort this out.
I fear my cognitive biases are preventing me from being able to take elements of the current plan as being anything other than skewed towards an ideological response. Not so much the medical side but the support packages. I really have a hankering to see a public works campaign - house building for example. Keeps builders going, gives employment to self employed, provides decent housing. It would have to be good old fashioned social house to the old rules of room size - sorry cant remember what the formula was. It invests in us.
If you're thinking of going to the Coylumbridge {or any other Britannia Hotel), take a gander at this...
Issued today to 30 staff, many from the EU. Immediate termination of employment and eviction.
Bastards!
Crikey, I cant even formulate a coherent response to that letter. Just sad for the people hit by it.
There is a big danger of companies using government help AND reducing their staffing bill to stay afloat. It might be the only way for them.
The government needs to aim help at people/households, not just companies.
Wrong forum.
That letter is utterly appalling.
The government needs to aim help at people/households, not just companies.
it's got five years before it has to resort to that .
Is it just me or has Johnson fundamentally misunderstood that this Coronavirus thing isn’t a competition with other countries to top the table?
I blame the virus for me not being fit on my bike. Cant possibly the pies and lack of excerse, can it ?
Britannia Hotels is the worst chain in the UK, so this doesn't surprise me in the slightest. Absolute bunch of arseholes.
On the basis of today's stats the UK is now 3 days behind France and catching up.
Two quick questions to all.
Does Covid-19 damage lungs capacity permanently?
There is a circulation on social media saying that taking Ibuprofen makes the situation worst is that true?
Yes (if seriously affected) and yes.
Is it just me or has Johnson fundamentally misunderstood that this Coronavirus thing isn’t a competition with other countries to top the table?
Oh no cognitive bias is infectious, that's two of us, we're going to be over run.
I hope he hasn't and it's just his responses are limited until you ask the right question.
Pub Update:
I raised my concerns. Someone on the WhatsApp group shared the same "Social Distancing" graphic Drac posted. Someone else mentioned that their wife has just lost her cousin to Covid.
We've decided to have a virtual drink via Facetime/Zoom instead.