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Reading plenty that suggests schools will not be back in January. I think that’s what we should be preparing for now. Will share some links tomorrow when I’ve checked out the writers a bit more.
I’d love a proper lockdown to try and nip it in the bud.
Does what we did last april count as a proper lockdown ? Or are you suggesting something more severe?
Does what we did last april count as a proper lockdown ? Or are you suggesting something more severe?
What we did last time worked, but wasn't as strict as some other countries imposed. I would sooner have shorter but stricter measures if it would be more effective. I'm not an expert but would have no issues if we shut borders apart from freight transport, had stricter rules around exercise duration and distance from home etc to limit opportunities for people to bend the rules.
But rules are useless if they can't/won't be enforced.
And I'm assuming adequate government financial support.
I’d love a proper lockdown to try and nip it in the bud. But Jnr has a driving test booked on 14th January, can we have a full lockdown, schools closed but driving lessons and tests allowed?
Hope so as I've got my HGV Class 2 booked for 15-18th January!
Still think a proper lockdown is needed though, I can delay it if need be.
Way too early to tell.
This. The experiments are to use serum from vaccinated subjects and test the neutralising titer (basically serial dilutions) against the strain of interest to infect cells in vitro. For the mRNA vaccines, your body made some protein according to the genetic instructions. It folded up those proteins into some shape that may or may not accurately mimic the spikes on the surface of the virus. Then your body recognised this foreign protein and mounted an immune response. I hope that the conformation is sufficiently flexible that a broad range of antibodies are made across multiple sites. on the protein.
One of those sites is definitely strongly immunogenic - because the Lilly and Regeneron antibodies, taken from recovered patients, target one of the mutated sites and have been approved as therapeutics. But vaccines have a polyclonal response. So hopefully some redundancy and some protection. I'll bet it doesn't go from 95% to nil.
Yeah - lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it? We’re in such a better place now.
JP
What we did last time worked
It did, and in Scotland we had petty much eliminated it for a few months. If we could get it down to that level again we'd be grand..
But my fear is if this new variant pushes up the r rate by 0.4 then we'd still be over 1 even with those restrictions
jjprestidge
Free Member
Yeah – lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it? We’re in such a better place now.
What would you have done instead, genuine question here?
lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it?
In the Spring? Yes. It did. Even if we started it too late, and finished with it too soon. That was quite some time ago though. Much easier to argue that the “tiers” tried since don’t do enough. I would agree that the second recent lock downs in England and Wales were not nearly effective enough though, if that’s what you’re referring to.
so don’t give up hope about shouting in supposed echo chambers.
I don't worry about trying to change opinions. I try and explain the science as clearly as possible. When positions are understood with clarity (and what is also not known), I believe decisions more or less make themselves. Take the case of future lockdown. The evidence that this new strain is replacing others is robust - strains missing the S-gene due to deletion at a site have grown in the South and East to replace others. At the same time cases and admissions in that region are increasing at rates faster than elsewhere.
Whether this strain infects younger people more easily, is more pathogenic, has a higher viral load, is prevalent across Europe, is still not clear. But the evidence for enhanced spread is robust.
lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it?
There is some balance of contacts and transmission. The first lockdown showed that a hard lockdown with closed schools was effective in limiting spread and shrinking transmission. Unpalatable and economically awful, but effective. We thought that the tiers might balance schools remaining open and reasonable social and economic contacts. A more tranmissible strain resets the location of that balance. Whether schools can remain open faced with such a shift in balance remains to be seen. It's not a given. In fact I am doubtful.
Yeah – lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it? We’re in such a better place now.
But almost certainly in a better place than if we hadn’t.
recent lock downs in England and Wales were not nearly effective enough
Don't know about that, the rates have come down alot in the North West and now started to rise again slowly. Agree the tiers don't work to reduce the rate. Contrast that with the south though who went into tier 2, that was a grade A mistake they are now paying for, and the rest of us soon as well.
I think a full lock down including school closures is a given for the New Year, this testing in schools bollox is not going to be ready in time and I'm not sure what it's going to achieve, by the time the kids test positive the damage will already be done. Total smoke screen to make the government look like it's doing something and a justification to stick to their policy of keeping schools open.
Here is a LSHTM preprint on the new variant.
Here are the key implications from the abstract:
"Nevertheless, the increase in transmissibility is likely to lead to a large increase in incidence, with COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths projected to reach higher levels in 2021 than were observed in 2020, even if regional tiered restrictions implemented before 19 December are maintained. Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools,and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely tooccur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden."
Still digesting it and be good to see what the more informed think, but TL;DR - I'm not expecting schools back (except perhaps exam years) until after Feb half-term at the earliest.
Total smoke screen to make the government look like it’s doing something and a justification to stick to their policy of keeping schools open.
It was the right policy for September, not January.
Still digesting it and be good to see what the more informed think
That was one of the things I was reading fenlander… not checked it out enough yet to have felt confident posting it though… shared enough half baked stuff in this thread before… was waiting to know more.
Context level: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html
Yeah – lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it? We’re in such a better place now.
It’s almost straight after the lockdown people could mix again, travel, offices reopen, pubs too and holiday abroad if you wanted to. Still I’m sure it’s not that but because lockdown didn’t work.
You really do have to walk in a man's moccasins.
It's a fair point that those with elderly relatives are more invested in saving the oldies, and if you've got immunocompromised, sub-60 loved ones, you're thinking hold up, what about mine, **** the others. If you've got kids you are worried about them missing an education, if you haven't you're wondering why they are still at school and spreading like plague rats.
I'm right in the middle - I don't want my 81 year old Mum to die (she's bright as a button and is still 'economically active' as an exam marker) - but i do want my equally bright 17 year old son to get a proper education.
Are you asking me to choose one over the other?
Is that really a choice we are asking people to make?
Because just like the ^thought experiment above, that is something we could do if we wish to - we could just let anyone presenting with Covid take their chances alone; we could even shepherd them into the unmanned Nightingale Hospitals to die without any intervention whatsoever. We could abandon them entirely and just let them get busy dying while we, the select, get on with living.
We could do that as we remember that Cummings and his ilk are all about Eugenics - if you're not productive you're dispensable.
I'd like to think that we are better than that.
I assume everyone calling for full national lockdown is comfortable working from home? Just remember not everyone is.
I can't be furloughed or get universal credit so if the shop I'm working in doesn't re open after the Scottish 3 weeks I'm screwed
To have all this 'strict Lockdowns' everyone is talking about we need to support EVERYONE which isn't happening
Yeah – lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it?
It did the stats are there; the basic rule: If you don't meet it can't spread. Unfortunately that is against a constant quest to get back to normal as fast as possible.
we need to support EVERYONE which isn’t happening
I agree.
I’m right in the middle – I don’t want my 81 year old Mum to die (she’s bright as a button and is still ‘economically active’ as an exam marker) – but i do want my equally bright 17 year old son to get a proper education.
There is a middle road though which allows a final year A level student to work from home for four to six weeks with an adjusted curriculum/final exam and not have their life blighted. My two kids are in their final year, but given that I'm in a relatively high risk group, I don't want their lives blighted with the serious illness, or death, of a parent.
Early reports about this variant, and the SA one (as yet not fully confirmed), suggest that it is not only more transmissible, but delivers a higher viral load in the process, potentially increasing the chance of severe illness in those receiving it.
There is only one option in my mind - a proper shutdown, starting before the New Year, nationwide, with schools out until half term. Leaving the other regions out of Tier 4 yesterday shows that this government appears utterly unable to learn from its mistakes. The new variant had a foothold in every region at least a week ago, and the rapid rise of cases is baked in already.
To have all this ‘strict Lockdowns’ everyone is talking about we need to support EVERYONE which isn’t happening
Which I did put in my post. There's an argument that earlier, shorter but stricter lockdowns would reduce the cost of the support needed, so it could be allocated properly, as well as reducing the overall economic impact. We missed the boat the first two times, the government doesn't have a great track record at learning from its mistakes.
We needed universal basic income
lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it?
Yawn. Go back to facebook. I'm not usually a fan of everyone agreeing on here, but at least we don't have the nonsense you see elsewhere about how the great british people will not accept lockdowns or rules or can't be relied upon to act in the interests of others. It's all bollocks, we could easily do what they have done in New Zealand, we just don't have the leaders with the courage and vision to implement it. Starmer needs to stop agreeing with Boris and start calling for what is necessary.
Starmer needs to stop agreeing with Boris and start calling for what is necessary.
I agree.
Although of course, he has been as regards timing of stricter measures. Johnson keeps laughing off what Starmer calls for one week... only to... eventually... introduce those measures himself far too late.
The BIG sticking point, is schools... where Labour have been FAR to reluctant to call for what is required... out of fear of falling into the "leftie teachers and their unions" trap... but they need to get over that and say what needs to happen. Most pupils should be at home in January.
@TiRed ... what are your thoughts on the CMMID report?
@TiRed … what are your thoughts on the CMMID report?
The most salient point in that paper is a plot of estimated R value vs proportion of S gene drop outs. Regions with higher gene drop out (presumed mutants with deletion of a key site) have higher transmission. This is a robust finding that is not dependent on modelling. It’s validated by other analyses and is the reason for current intervention.
The other work on scenarios are based on a model that, whilst validated by past data, has assumptions that may or may not be true prediction intervals are wide for a model so well-calibrated. That makes it a numerical educated guess. Considering the time spent working on it, it’s impressive work.
Yeah – lockdown really worked last time, didn’t it? We’re in such a better place now
Yes, it really did.
Speaking about Scotland only, we were down to single figure daily recorded new infections, if we'd had the ability to do as NZ did, close borders, stop international travel, contract traced the very low infections, then I believe we'd be in the same position as they are.
However that didn't/couldn't happen.
Agreed. We went 40 days without a death, single figure positives despite increased testing, and had pretty much eliminated it.
I remember at the time there was talk of closing the border to England and sturgeon was accused of nationalism by the tories...
Lots of lockdown options assessed here.
Page 10 has the comparison table.
It's interesting reading the pro lockdown/anti lockdown sentiment on here. Remember that the severity of the required lockdown is wholly as a consequence of ten years of underfunding the NHS, driving frontline staff away from the service, undermining the ones that remained and acting weeks too late in initiating the first lockdown. As well as sacking off the preparations for a pandemic two years prior.
Had the above not happened we would still have needed lockdowns but perhaps an awful lot less severe.
Martin hutch, interesting. So schools closed makes it worse. I find that counter intuitive but... Well.... Maybe. Is need to read it thoroughly and ask lots of questions to be convinced. Either way, looks bad, if that model is any good
Good point airvent, sadly that's where we are.
The Reith Lectures 2020 on BBC Sounds are by Mark Carney (former head of the Bank of England so definitely not a wishy washy liberal like me). He argues quite strongly that the way the economy is structured is broken - Carney argues that society has come to embody Oscar Wilde’s old aphorism: “knowing the price of everything but the value of nothing" and that's screwing up our response to Covid and climate change.
Hopefully when the government changes we'll be able to start to sort out the bigger mess.
So schools closed makes it worse.
Look at total deaths rather than peak. 5,000 fewer with Tier 4+schools closed. I admit I'm not sure what the mechanism is for more restrictions meaning a slightly higher peak. Oh, I see that now - a bigger rebound effect post lockdown in some areas.
Even so, I find that relatively small difference a bit counterintuitive, as one of their key assumptions seems to be increased susceptibility among children (p29).
Obviously, not peer-reviewed yet, either.
Pretty clear in terms of the vital nature of swiftly increasing vaccine coverage as the only way of avoiding peak 3 in spring/summer 2021.
So schools closed makes it worse. I find that counter intuitive
The answer was on the bottom of the table on P10...
Peak ICU requirement and peak deaths are higher under the “Tier 4, schools closed” than under the “Tier 4, schools open” scenario because closing schools shifts the peak later in East of England, South East, and London NHS regions, so that it coincides with the projected peak in other NHS regions.
...I suspected because London and the SE is so badly affected now in terms of numbers of cases.
It does show positive news though, that as the politicians are saying we'll be in a better place by Easter. The "shape" of the virus annually appears to be about the same with all number calming down in the summer - we hope then that mass vaccination avoids the waves that we are seeing now in Winter 2021.
@airvent I previous showed that countries in Europe that have historically done well in protecting their citizens from excess winter mortality, had a much better response for COVID-19. It speaks to preparedness.
I don’t see any alternatives to contact restrictions, but I think a clearer message, unified implementation across the nations, coupled with proper economic support for all, would have improved the sense of national purpose. I firmly believe that people want to do the right thing.
If one thing changes after this, I would want it to be an appreciation that in healthcare, you get what you pay for. And we have not paid anywhere near enough.
proper economic support for all,
@TiRed Of course, I missed that but it is really important. Some people really can't afford to self isolate for weeks on end and the financial support has been woeful and very unfair (how come someone can be furloughed for months on 80% pay but someone who isnt furloughed has to work, gets sick and then gets £80 a week...).
I agree.
Has it been clarified yet if you can still carry the virus ‘post jab’ I’m a couple of years older than Mrs JJ55 and after a recent landmark birthday I’m now in a different age group which means I’m likely to receive a jab a few weeks or even months before she does. So will this mean that if I go out and start to live a near normal life again I could potentially bring home the virus and infect my wife?
Has it been clarified yet if you can still carry the virus ‘post jab’ I’m a couple of years older than Mrs JJ55 and after a recent landmark birthday I’m now in a different age group which means I’m likely to receive a jab a few weeks or even months before she does. So will this mean that if I go out and start to live a near normal life again I could potentially bring home the virus and infect my wife?
It’s not 100% effective so yes there’s a small risk certainly a much smaller risk then where you are now. You just having the jab does not mean a normal life, I’m sure you know we needs high percentage of the population.
Yes I saw the note about shifted peak. Still seems odd, delayed and lowered leak from London and se gives more time to prepare but I haven't read the paper so guess that extra mitigation like a further nightingale or three aren't considered. The maths may be accurate but hopefully we can still be informed by it and add in some further mitigation. Speeding up vaccinations for example.... But I assume we are competing with every other nation for the doses/flow of doses
It’s not 100% effective so yes there’s a small risk certainly a much smaller risk then where you are now. You just having the jab does not mean a normal life, I’m sure you know we needs high percentage of the population.
What will the position be for us ‘post jab’?
I'd guess no different, nothing should change for vaccinated people until sufficient numbers of the population have been vaccinated.
Has it been clarified yet if you can still carry the virus ‘post jab’
There is no published data on effects of transmission. The most obvious data will be within household attack rate (which is about 25% for a second infection). This will be being studied.
At the moment all one can assume is that a vaccinations only protects the person dosed from COVID-19 the infection and subsequent healthcare burden. I’m sure there will be c an effect, but the magnitude has not been measured.
Thanks TiRed for all you and the others have done to help us understand this pandemic throughout the year. You have certainly helped me to try and find a way though the morass created by the politicians.
TiRed
Full MemberThere is no published data on effects of transmission. The most obvious data will be within household attack rate (which is about 25% for a second infection). This will be being studied.
At the moment all one can assume is that a vaccinations only protects the person dosed from COVID-19 the infection and subsequent healthcare burden. I’m sure there will be c an effect, but the magnitude has not been measured.
Is this something you'd feel comfortable making an educated guess on?