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You would have to think that reducing the numbers of infections due to vaccination would reduce the transmission.
it could happen in a couple of ways:
An infection could be prevented or cleared before viral expression and as a result viral release through talking, coughing etc which should reduce the chances of someone passing on the virus.
Or that viral infection does take place but the immune response only reduces the amount of time that someone is infectious
The one that wouldn't help transmission is if the vaccine prevents severe or mild disease by making it asymptomatic. As a result an infected person wouldn't know of the infection so could be out and about and infect more
I hope it is the first outcome but currently we don't know. I suspect it would be one of the first 2 options,but would take any of the 3 if we can get enough people vaccinated
Is this something you’d feel comfortable making an educated guess on?
mRNA will protect from transmission perhaps 75% would be good and even halving acceptable, but the Oxford vaccine will have a modest effect. All will prevent hospitalisations.
We have the bizarre situation where we are giving the wrong vaccine to the wrong people. The elderly should get the oxford vaccine for protection and the young the mRNA for transmission.
The preclinical behaviour of the oxford vaccine was nothing special. The mRNA vaccines have moved on clinical and biological science. They are that impressive.
Arse. So I thought I'd got away with it but just come down with a dry cough and sore throat exactly 14 days to the day after my exposure to a known Covid sufferer.
Self isolating and waiting for test results now. Fingers crossed that it's just a cold but not optimistic.
Literally the only good thing about this is that I've been in fairly close contact with someone I don't like, so with any luck he's going to get a phone call over the next couple of days ruining his New Year.
Mrs had same symptoms last week, was negative, fingers crossed for you flaperon.
She's a nurse, her dept has kept going throughout, they've not had a single positive from any of the staff. Bizarre.
Literally the only good thing about this is that I’ve been in fairly close contact with someone I don’t like, so with any luck he’s going to get a phone call over the next couple of days ruining his New Year.
The season of goodwill going well I see 😉
The season of goodwill going well I see 😉
Bah humbug etc ☃️ 😁
The Situationen in this Part of Germany is also getting quite critical. A good friend of mine is a student nurse and his ward have had an outbreak of Corona virus. So far 10 patients and 9 workers have tested positive. My friend had had close direct contact with two positive tested patients and he was tested yesterday. He still has to go to work until his test comes back because the hospital is so short staffed because so many are self isolating. Utter madness. 🥺
Happy socially-distanced Christmas from Tier 4. First non-attendance at midnight mass for more than 25 years.
We have the bizarre situation where we are giving the wrong vaccine to the wrong people. The elderly should get the oxford vaccine for protection and the young the mRNA for transmission.
Interesting. Not heard anyone observe that before. Tell us more… after Xmas. I’d substitute “those in public facing roles” for the more general “the young” though.
The elderly don’t spread the virus. They are end sufferers. Any vaccine that reduces their morbidity would be sufficient. The young and those in healthcare worker roles are spreaders and hence need a vaccine that has greater potential to limit spread. Hence the oxford vaccine is likely to be sufficient for the elderly for protection, but may not limit spread as effectively.
Frankly we need every dose of every approved vaccine out there and in someone's arm ASAP, young or old if we're ever going to get ahead of this pandemic
Mrs had same symptoms last week, was negative, fingers crossed for you flaperon.
Your magic fingers worked, got the negative result last night. 😁 Released from Covid-19 purgatory to spread my cold at leisure.
How long would it take to manufacture significant doses of this kind of therapy?
Typical dose is about a gramme per year based on potency and residency in the body.
So to dose the UK per year one needs 66 tonnes. A best-case cell line makes 10g/L and the reactors are up to 100,000L (none in the UK I believe, more typical is 20,000L). That would be 66 batches per year or more than one run per week. That’s not impossible but not a problem our cmc colleagues would want to have.
These antibodies were all isolated from people infected early on. Then the cells cloned and made in bio reactors. Everyone is looking at prophylaxis for a use. But the doses are probably about 100x higher than the vaccine (where humans are the bioreactor).
But if vaccines fail, there will be a way.
AZ antibody treatment -
Mrs_oab has weekly antibody infusions in order that she has any immune system at all. It's well proven for about 15 years now.
The difference is hers are harvested from blood, the AZ one is lab grown.
There's a discussion on one of her support groups about the AZ antibodies being added to the current products they use, as a way of every CVID patient both getting it quickly and as part of a trial.
I would. She is exactly the patient group these will be useful for. Her antibody dose is a LOT higher since it’s polyclonal. About 30x higher. Since she’s getting monthly infusions, the AZ dose would be a lot lower.
Interesting - MoaB, hopefully that happens.
Went for a walk today (to have a look at the flooding) had to return via a main road due to said flooding so busy with cars twas insane.
What are we thinking about current infection levels and the return to schools in Jan?
I'm getting increasingly twitchy at having our 5 year old go back based on the likely chance that the new strain may infect children more plus the infection rate being as high if not higher than the first lockdown.
any thoughts?
I dont think they should go back until the impact of this new variant is established. What's a few weeks of missed teaching when thousands of lives and jobs are at stake? They can catch up with a summer school or something.
They can catch up with a summer school or something.
I agree schools probably shouldn't go back - locally the secondary schools are home schooling at least a week for none exam years - but catching up with a summer school is unlikely. Teachers are still working even if schools are closed, they won't be doing (even more) extra in the summer.
What are we thinking about current infection levels and the return to schools in Jan?
The opposite of whatever Boris says. I personally think it is unlikely before half term. The frequency of the variant is increasing in all regions, but clearly the South has a head start. The others will catch up due to natural selection.
We are absolutely ****ed with this new variant and now that the vaccine is in play we should lock down firmly including closing schools for a month or so. That will be enough to (a) vaccinate most of the extremely vulnerable and (b) maybe get infection numbers down a bit too (though this is challenging with the new variant).
It was different last year when there was no exit plan, because lockdown isn't sustainable indefinitely. Now we have the possibility of rapid vaccination to bring this under control - at least in terms of deaths (~10% coverage would have a big effect) if we can't suppress it more comprehensively through vaccine-induced herd immunity (which will take ~80% coverage).
I'm not planning on going anywhere for a month, I may have to shop once or twice if I can't get deliveries, but I won't meet anyone else outside my bubble. I can't solve this problem myself but at least I can avoid contributing to it.
Going on past form, especially if the super mutant version is that contagious - I'm still not convinced it isn't just piggybacking on an already surging pandemic' but regardless of the why or how, its surging. -
Then schools will be going back right up until the last minute before they u-turn.
Although they might just try & wing it and then after 2 weeks of school transmission shut down too late
I can’t solve this problem myself but at least I can avoid contributing to it.
Been my approach so far. So far we don't think we've caught it or spread it, despite two teenagers surrounded by it at school.
Vaccination is where it's at as our "World Beating" Track and Trace just isn't. Someone in the household received a notification text today for a potential contact on 18 December! Only 8 days late.
We stop isolating on Tuesday having been shopping and delivering presents to friends and family (masked and socially distanced as necessary) in the run up to Christmas.
Truly, truly woeful Dido. Have a golf clap.
Even if you want to do your bit, the administration are doing their level best to **** it up at every turn. They seem to be unable to set up any brand new computerised system without it going wrong and being hugely expensive.
We are absolutely **** with this new variant and now that the vaccine is in play we should lock down firmly including closing schools for a month or so. That will be enough to (a) vaccinate most of the extremely vulnerable and (b) maybe get infection numbers down a bit too (though this is challenging with the new variant).
It was different last year when there was no exit plan, because lockdown isn’t sustainable indefinitely. Now we have the possibility of rapid vaccination to bring this under control – at least in terms of deaths (~10% coverage would have a big effect) if we can’t suppress it more comprehensively through vaccine-induced herd immunity (which will take ~80% coverage).
I’m not planning on going anywhere for a month, I may have to shop once or twice if I can’t get deliveries, but I won’t meet anyone else outside my bubble. I can’t solve this problem myself but at least I can avoid contributing to it.
Why the hell isn't there a like button on this forum? This ^ x 1000. And get the Oxford vaccine approved and deployed ASAP
FFS. Just had the Covid-19 app notification telling me that I need to self-isolate for six days.
I guess karma really does work.
@thecaptain and I are in total agreement on every point. We contained the spread in March with impressive restriction and effective but unsustainable control. It is not a given that even Tier 4 controls the spread of this strain. I think a full lockdown wil have the same effect as it did before. Watch admissions in the South this week. Policy will be based on that.
Schools won’t be going back based on current data.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=London
Mike “epidemic effectively over” Yeadon is very quiet. As has been prof Gupta on the role of immunity on the current spread. The null hypothesis (very limited immunity) really has not been rejected.
Tier 4 may just be enough as the rise in kent is slowing.
But schools will go back as there will be mass testing so they will be no virus there. Well that's what teachers will be told.
They will then close in a week or two as there will be so many positive results
That's my prediction anyway.
The chart for mechanical incubation is concerning.
Am i right in thinking that full ventilation is used less now treatment has improved or is cpap classed under that title?
They count cpap. I think.
What are the planned return-to-school dates for England and Wales?
5th for us in Bedfordshire.
Cheers thecaptain i did wonder
5th for us in Bedfordshire.
Will that be by boat? Here's hoping your house is in a high and dry spot.
Haha, we are in a fine area.
where I go swimming in the river is bad, you can't see where the banks are
Used to live in a new development by the river in Bedford, 25y ago before flooding was so high on the agenda. Glad to be half-way up a hill now - at least a leaky roof doesn't dump sewage in your lounge 🙂
Been my approach so far. So far we don’t think we’ve caught it or spread it, despite two teenagers surrounded by it at school.
Sure, but whereas last spring/summer I was thinking, what's a sustainable way to manage low-contact life on an indefinite basis, I'm now thinking what is the bare minimum we can manage for the next month or so. Even if "full lockdown" is enough to suppress the new variant (which I wouldn't like to bet on), I can't see us doing more than a couple of months of it, so this is likely to get resolved one way or the other quite quickly. I'd prefer it if vaccination played the bigger role. It's excusable to be overwhelmed by a very contagious and dangerous disease before the vaccine arrived, but it would be pretty tragic to fail now we are within sight of beating it. There are still many lives at stake, a lot more than we've lost so far if we get it wrong.
It's a great shame there is no-one in the govt capable of the necessary leadership.
It’s a great shame there is no-one in the govt capable of the necessary leadership
If I had a pound for every time I've thought in the last 4 years, but especially the last year, I could have funded the vaccine research myself 🙂
It’s a great shame there is no-one in the govt capable of the necessary leadership.
Unfortunately they also seem to have the opposition running scared of calling for delays to schools returning. I'd also be a lot happier if there wasn't a Brexit vote this week - there's just too much of a risk of throwing the headbangers bone.
ONS survey data vs case numbers.... not sure if this has been covered before?
Comparing the ONS data for say Scotland (just less than 1%) with the 7 day case rate (140/100k) suggests actual cases are 7 times higher than those captured by testing.... i.e. there must be a LOT of asymptomatic cases. What am I missing?
ONS random survey is the underlying truth. The reported testing means that only 1/7 people who are positive are being tested. Whether they are aSymptomatic or not is moot. But they aren’t being tested. People report to hospital with symptoms not test results.
If the vaccines need to be updated (like the flu vaccine), how simple will that be and will there need to be more trials?
IIRC the OAZ vaccine was due for approval tomorrow? Can't recall where I read that.
how simple will that be and will there need to be more trials?
Updating the mRNA vaccine is straightforward. The genetic sequence is replaced and then made the same way. Personally, I think approval based on animal data and perhaps a small, rapid phase 1 study in volunteers to confirm antibody response. Much faster than Phase 3 studies.
They can catch up with a summer school or something.
Come to my flat and tell my upstairs neighbour she has to summer school kids after what she's been through the past few months. As for all the home schooling chats i think middle class single track is forgetting there are some people who are incapable of home schooling.