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a virus that will cause asymptomatic to mild infection in the vast majority of cases
This is indisputable.
Ignoring the damage it does to everyone else is unforgivable though.
for a disease that’s really no great danger to anyone under 60
I'm afraid this simply isn't true, I wish it was.
The stupidity of people on here blindly following what we are doing knows no bounds.
There is no blindness "here"... there is constant questioning and challenging of what "we" are doing on every single page of this thread.
You're talking to a brick wall I'm afraid. I'm astounded that folk don't/won't see where this is heading, and not just The Great Reset, but you just need to leave them to it. If they only watch mainstream media that's been paid for by the Government then their eyes will be well and truly closed.
How are the guardian paid for by the government?
The only successful countries implemented a HARD lockdown EARLY.
ARESEBISCUUTS/whoever - some of what you say has merit, but you wrap it in mistruths, conspiracy theory and insults. Debate each of your points properly and you will get a decent response.
Debate means that you need an open mind. Are you willing to have yours changed?
If they only watch mainstream media that’s been paid for by the Government then their eyes will be well and truly closed.
The days when there were only two channels on TV are long behind us. There’s also this thing called the internet… it means, with a few pay walled exceptions, that multiple newspapers are at your finger tips. Also, it means published scientific papers and testing is easy to read and compare.
So… some specifics CG? Or just more “blind sheep” nonsense?
Present a view, and listen too others, please stop the hand wringing and name calling.
Has your Qanon membership expired Carbonrider?
What you state is a "light" version of the anti mask/vax far right "choose to die in a ditch" argument.
If this is all you can bring to the debate its simply not of value, i dont doubt some of the issues you raise but the immediate challenge (2800 cases per 100000 in the Isle of Sheppy) translate into an excess daily death rate in January of well over a 1000, if you need this translating into a comparable death rate this exceeds the UKs WW1 death rate.... think about that
C_G, you do a disservice. Ask the questions appropriately and be prepared to debate the answers, and you get a lot of respect and time from many. Of course a few don't, that's life.
But because no-one so far has brought a convincing alternative case that makes me change my opinion, I can't agree with you / Chrispo / Arsebioscuits or any of the others. Disagreeing doesn't shutdown your chance to convince me further, bring your best info and evidence and we'll listen. But that goes two ways.
Comes with abuse and insults, either as yourself or accounts set up for the purpose and you'll get an appropriate response.
Obviously just getting off on people's responses and enjoying the fact that his account got barred.Probably showing off to his Facebook flat earth pals about it.Indulge him and just keep banning his account every time,as he's just a another one who believes in illuminati shxt.Loads of conspiracy theorys out there now, bored of hearing about them.
My friend a senior NHS consultant and many of his colleagues all think that our reaction to this virus has been bullocks
Presumably not one in infectious diseases or critical care? Have you looked at the ITU statistics for occupancy and patient breakdown? Have they? They tell a not very pleasant story.
Did you know that half of ITU patients are under 60? Did you know that only 10% of ITU patients have a significant comorbidity? What’s not being reported is how well the healthcare system is managing the continuous surge of COVID patients. Many in their middle age and economically active. What do you think might happen if that surge was not managed and such people, people like yourself or your family, are denied treatment?
It’s not the rarity of the mortality figure that’s the problem, it’s the sample size of susceptible people. A small proportion of a large number is still a large number.
The fact is that globally, nations have decided that faced with a global emergent pathogen with little or no past immunity, no therapeutic options, and evident additional mortality, a common policy of intervention is merited. Some nations have performed better than others. Nations that typically control influenza and nations that had past experience of SARS in 2003. We are not one of those nations.
I’ve never started a cult before. How do I get rich? The government certainly aren’t putting anything my way.
Some people need a religion even if its not called a religion - this seems to manifest itself particularly well in the US, i understand this as a society hhey believe in the American dream and everyones right to be successful- now when that dream fails people they need to have a "religion" that allocates blame elsewhere... hence Qanon, Proud boys, Trumpism an endless parade of true believer's.
Or to quote Blackadder a willing suspension of disbelief.
Please note may include DNA, Microchips, Bill Gates, vaccine.
But because no-one so far has brought a convincing alternative case that makes me change my opinion, I can’t agree with you / Chrispo / Arsebioscuits or any of the others. Disagreeing doesn’t shutdown your chance to convince me further, bring your best info and evidence and we’ll listen. But that goes two ways.
Brilliantly put, you've properly hit your stride in the last few days.
A measure of a true scientist is that they are prepared to adjust their position if evidence emerges against it. If the 'We're already at herd' scenario espoused by Gupta et al proved to be correct, TiRed would acknowledge it (although I think that ship is leaving the dock now, and I doubt we'll see any Mea Culpa from those pushing it).
As it stands, I imagine he will have to significantly revise the forecasts he made a few weeks ago. Sadly, not in a favourable direction.
As for the 'mainstream media' argument, that is utter rubbish. I have worked with many of the health correspondents who are part of this current deep state plan to mislead us, and the thought that they would participate in such a scheme is laughable.
Oh poo. Just had a call from my eldest's school, positive case in her reception class. School email says whole household should now self isolate until 28th. Tbh since it's not practical to isolate a 5yo in her room (much as I'd like to at times!) We will do that, but it's not the government advice is it. As above... I thought officially it's just the close contact, or my daughter, that self isolates.
Okay.... Chances of surviving this without a Shining style meltdown when I can't take the 5yo or the very very boisterous 3yo out the house for a bike ride/playground visit and wife and I are lacking sleep and caring for a 6mo too? .....Heeeeerrrrreeee's Johnny!
So I am back having been banned by STW for holding a different opinion.
You can’t even tell the truth on the reason you were banned. You were banned for disinformation, such as cancer patients not receiving treatment, but as the ban told you it was abusive manner which is why you were banned. Post away but any lies about things as cancer patients not being treat or an abusive manner and you will removed with no third chance.
Yet NHS staff cannot speak out freely publicly about this, such is the NHS hatred of and measures designed to stop whistle blowers.
Such as that one.
School email says whole household should now self isolate until 28th. Tbh since it’s not practical to isolate a 5yo in her room (much as I’d like to at times!) We will do that, but it’s not the government advice is it. As above… I thought officially it’s just the close contact, or my daughter, that self isolates.
it is just the person in contact with the positive case but if you want to be cautious you could too.
The fact is that globally, nations have decided that faced with a global emergent pathogen with little or no past immunity, no therapeutic options, and evident additional mortality, a common policy of intervention is merited.
^^ This. A thousand times this.
Do you really think that the majority of the world is willingly choosing to restrict the freedoms of its citizens and trash their economies for fun? And that you, as a lone wolf with nothing more than your degree from the "University of Life", a search engine, and a tendency to confirmation bias, know more than them?
Sadly, not in a favourable direction.
There is now a robust link from cases to admissions to deaths (that was not the case when we ramped up testing). They paint a not attractive story for the next few weeks.
The point about hospitals being full is often repeated. The fact is the proportion of patients with COVID in hospitals is increasing. That means that availability of beds for planned elective care diminishes.
Infectious diseases grow disproportionately. Cases can double in a week. Other diseases are linear - and there is an army of people managing this linear resource. We struggle with respiratory disease each year. So how well would we be expected to cope with a further disease?
The media focus on comorbidities and the elderly dying because it makes us comfortable. Well for some discomfort, the relative risk of COVID death due to pregnancy is increased four fold. Even on a 0.5% background mortality, I think we’d be concerned at 1/50 pregnant women with COVID dying. Of interest, about 1/20 women of childbearing potential (18-45) is pregnant at any time. The facts are always more detailed than the media portray.
Even under severe restrictions we are only at “normal full” - do people not grasp that obvious fact discounting? Restrictions have an effect on transmission. There is ample evidence of this in the UK and elsewhere. The economic and moral balancing act is, however, the job of government not scientists (or economists).
Did you know that half of ITU patients are under 60? Did you know that only 10% of ITU patients have a significant comorbidity?
Sorry TiRed but I suspect you are talking utter bol locks. You are almost certainly misrepresenting the numbers. Care to share those figures with breakdowns for 'because of Covid' versus 'with a positive Covid test' from an official resource? No, didn't think so.
Just because someone has a positive test in hospital, that's probably got nothing to do with the reason they are in hospital, especially as 25% seem to catch Covid in hospital in any case! A positive test means nothing in this context. My 35 year old friend tested positive for Covid when in for a broken leg. No Covid symptoms, but listed as a Covid admission. Friends father died of heart attack, but because of positive test when admitted to hospital, yes you guessed it, a Covid death! 95% (or thereabouts) of those who die of Coronavirus have serious co-morbidities, e.g. late stage dementia, or are so aged that they are in the very last throws of life in any case. All the young people peddled out by the BBC in hospital spouting the dangers Covid for the young seem to appear morbidly obese. Got to keep that fear up though eh?
Regardless of your arguments, even if you were right, we are doing far more long term harm than good pursuing our current policy of lockdown. We are currently inflicting the biggest act of self harm on our country in all of our history. And all to prevent out NHS from being overwhelmed apparently - like it is every winter. Our children will look back in horror about what we have done to ourselves and our society. Utter, utter madness supported by brainwashed idiots who can't think for themselves.
Post away but any lies about things as cancer patients not being treat or an abusive manner and you will removed with no third chance.
Would have thought that allowing him to directly circumvent a ban by creating a second/third login makes the original ban pointless, but your game, your rules...
We are currently inflicting the biggest act of self harm on our country in all of our history.
This I can get behind, but not quite in the way you think.
The economic and moral balancing act is, however, the job of government
or the people, or the STW Massive, or the conspiracy followers (Jesus, Allah and QAnon) and that balancing act is not going to be the same for everyone.
hence above "... well that would be sensible, but its not the rules....", you can run a double decker between the logic of 'the rules'
actually, maybe ""The Rules"" holds the answer (winkysmileyface)
Who on earth would trust the government to undertake a "moral balancing act"? Johnson is simply using every available opportunity to use the panic to siphon public money off to his backers while using "the science" to justify ever more crackpot locking-down, while the likes of Tobias Ellwood thumbs his nose at the plebs while attending a Christmas Party to celebtate the destruction of Iraq. And Saint Nicola abandons her futile mask when she thinks she's out of shot.
My 35 year old friend tested positive for Covid when in for a broken leg. No Covid symptoms, but listed as a Covid admission.
You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. They would be recorded as admission with a fractured leg, as that’s what they went in with. They may be recorded as also covid positive just like they would be showing as MRSA positive if that came back as positive.
Some French ITU stats, easy enough to understand I think:
Parmi les patients Covid-19 en réanimation entre le 5 octobre et le 15 décembre, Santé Publique France précise que :
63% sont âgés de 65 ans et plus.
L'âge médian est de 68 ans (74 ans pour les décès).
89% présentent au moins une comorbidité. Les comorbidités les plus fréquemment rapportées sont l'obésité (IMC≥30kg.m-2 ) (46%), l'hypertension artérielle (45%) et le diabète (31%).
71% sont des hommes.
No, didn’t think so.
Of course. I am always happy to cite public sources as it happens the uk has run probably the oat comprehensive study of HDU/ITU in the world. It’s reported by ICNARC and can be found here
https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
Love it when receipts are fully provided. Obviously, as a man of integrity, CarbonBiscuitsArseRider will be quick to acknowledge this.
Bit of a clue. I try not to pick up on spelling and grammar but noted before someone who didn't know the difference between throws and throes. Will go looking in a bit
can’t agree with you / Chrispo / Arsebioscuits or any of the others
Please don’t lump me in with this. I haven’t said a single thing opposing lockdowns or social distancing or vaccination.
I wonder if this is indicative of the more general polarisation of opinion into extremes these days, from Brexit onwards.
If you’re not with us, you’re against us, and we’ll lump you in with the most extreme views so that we can dismiss everything you have to say.
Banning and ridiculing the other side won’t win them over.
And it really isn’t just down to science. Balancing deaths and freedoms and so on is a judgement and always open to debate.
Also of note, regardless of “with” and “of” arguments, in a year with unprecedented intervention on mass mixing, approximately 100,000 people, or 18% have died in 2020 compared with the previous 10 years. There is no evidence that there has been an epidemic of cardiovascular disease, suicide, dementia (all linear).
There has been one additional month of mortality compared with the worst year in the past 10. That’s with intervention. I, like the ONS, would welcome your estimates of the effects without such intervention. Previous early estimates (250k) were howled down with derision, but have proven not unreasonable.
Please don’t lump me in with this
Had not entered my mind. I welcome reasoned argument and debate, you provide both. Believe me, I’m a harsher critic of myself than most. I always ask how wrong can I be? What’s the null hypothesis and how strong is the evidence? For mortality, it’s pretty strong.
Here you can see the severity between first and second waves. Interesting that those who had a severe first wave have a less severe second wave and vice-versa. This would imply a significant deal of either prior, or built up immunity present:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ep2oRUQW4AMSy0-?format=jpg&name=medium
No significant effect between different countries lockdown/mask policies either. Virus gonna do what a virus gonna do it would seem despite Boris and our mad scientists trying to play King Canute!
And it really isn’t just down to science. Balancing deaths and freedoms and so on is a judgement and always open to debate.
Absolutely. But if the politicians and scientists fail, the painful judgements will be made at the door of ICU.
Banning and ridiculing the other side won’t win them over.
You think you can "win" Arsebiscuits over with debate on a forum...? Good luck... be prepared to be called either "scared", or a "bed wetter", "in the pocket of the government", or just a "sheep", or worse still... blamed for cancer deaths... let's see you do your best... we'll come up with some kind of prize if you manage it...
approximately 100,000 people, or 18% have died in 2020 compared
I think you meant to say 100,000 more people have died.
This would imply a significant deal of either prior, or built up immunity present:
Or the fact that they now know what treatments work, most of them discovered by those villains working in the nhs.
This would imply a significant deal of either prior, or built up immunity present
Implies to me that lots of people died in the first wave, and harsh lessons were learnt.
For example, in the UK... we lost a lot of people in care homes, and are now MUCH better prepared to protect those in them now.
Correct more deaths - about seven weeks more.
This would imply a significant deal of either prior, or built up immunity present:
Plot that for London and the south east regions in a few weeks time. The “second wave” is not over. In fact there aren’t really waves because it’s not significant immunity that has driven the reduction - every area in this country that has relaxed constraints from lockdown has seen a surge in cases. But apparently lockdowns don’t “work”. They contain transmission whilst immunity builds slowly and treatments are developed.
The unpalatable point is that despite the gravity of the situation and the economic damage (some of which is felt by my own family), we are trying to find the least bad option. There are no good choices. Just bad ones and worse ones. But there have been very few alternative proposals of substance.
What I don't get about arsebiscuits carbon guy is that he and people like him seem to be against everything and everyone, including it now seems Boris and his barely disguised excuse for a government when a year ago he probably voted for them, but have very little to say about what they actually want? He displays all the frustrations and anger of many who have been ignored by the people who rule us and who do very well out of the way things are, but then slag off those who agree with that by calling them snowflakes, bed-wetters or whatever other insults exist for those of a liberal, pro-democracy anti-establishment ilk. So arsebiscuits, please, what is it that you want? What would you change?
carbonrider
Free Member
So I am back having been banned by STW for holding a different opinion. Censorship at its finest...... /snip
Just creating a second account is enough to be banned on here. The mods are actually cutting you a bit of slack to be honest. They are damned whatever they do, it's a thankless task on most forums.
The rest of your thread seems to show a lot of pent up anger/frustration. I get that, though I don't agree with its direction.
Most importantly, you do get that you are on a niche thread within a niche biking forum? There are no "dangerous" people on here, we aren't in government leading the pandemic response. Wish we were. Opinions have evolved many times over in this thread. Initially it was very much a rumour mill thread as that's all there was, rumours and second hand information. Things have changed, so have opinions.
So.... I get your ire with the government but that's about it. I'm no scientist but I am capable of logical thought. Please don't go down the sheeple path as I and many others just turn off at that point.
There are many posters in this thread that are really in the thick of it, they aren't just posting on here with third hand accounts. Some are working within the NHS and in other "fronts" attempting to combat this virus..I'm inclined to listen to their views to help inform mine. That doesn't make me brainwashed, I'm sorry you see things that way.
I think you meant to say 100,000 more people have died.
Only if you understand how to look at the data
Good post Poopscoop.
May I also add trying to discredit someone who constantly provides data, sources and is totally impartial about the pandemic by saying but “my friend says” is not doing yourself any favours.
So I am back having been banned by STW for holding a different opinion. Censorship at its finest on a forum that I thought prided itself on liberalism and tolerance.
Think back to your first post. If you had just said something along the lines of ‘my wife has a long standing immune condition and we are really worried about the vaccine as there have been issues in the past with medications, plus rushing things and possible leaning on the regulatory bodies does not instil confidence’ (or whatever your actual concerns were) then your response would have been very different.
Going in guns blazing got the response it deserved TBH. Discourse is a two way street, shouting is a dead end.
Edit: apologies if I have got people mixed up. Can’t keep up with the aliases and those with odd ways of approaching things
Outside the latte drinking bubble that is this thread
I’m getting pretty tired of these constant, personal attacks on my latte-habit.
On the subject of conspiracy theories - is there anything understood about how/why the new strain is more transmissible? Or have we surmised it is based on the observed transmission rates?
Can anyone point me at some decent data?
The unpalatable point is that despite the gravity of the situation and the economic damage (some of which is felt by my own family), we are trying to find the least bad option. There are no good choices. Just bad ones and worse ones. But there have been very few alternative proposals of substance.
You're probably basing your assumptions off Prof Fergusons much discredited model, 500k or 250k deaths. That was NEVER going to happen, not even close to this even if we did nothing. Prof Ferguson has a history of making wildly inaccurate forecasts.
THE GBD had a lot of merit but it was dismissed out of hand without any real evidence put forward as to why it would not work, just a lot of slagging off due to a couple of made up names on the signature lists. It was proposed TiRed by people who seem to know a lot more than you, by people who are almost certainly more than you.
That's the thing though isn't it. There are plenty of credible alternative proposals out there but with SAGE being run mostly by mathematical modellers and behavioural psychologists what chance have we got? The alternative scientists frequently put out suggestions based on the actual data, and usually with thorough explanation. Meanwhile what do we get from SAGE? Three week old data presented as current, dodgy exaggerated graphs, and new lies to cover up old lies. Same with the bosses of the NHS, lying about capacity. Hancock, lying about what was clearly displayed in his own ONS data.
I know which side I'll believe, and if you still believe this government and it's dodgy bunch of scientists, even when they lie to us time after time, and each with their large shareholdings in the vaccine companies, then you are even more fools that I though you were before.
I think we should build Covid "lick stations" to allow the "true believers" to disprove us all...
However if you lick it your NHS membership is withdrawn.... after all its just the flu?
Mate, you just need to calm it down a bit.
I think we should build Covid “lick stations” to allow the “true believers” to disprove us all…
However if you lick it your NHS membership is withdrawn…. after all its just the flu?
Me and my wife have both already had it, it was no big deal.
is there anything understood about how/why the new strain is more transmissible?
In very simple terms, the virus needs to attach itself to and enter particular human cells in order for an infection to develop. To do this, it has something called a 'spike protein' on its surface, which sticks to a particular part of the cell it wants to enter. In the variant, the spike protein has got better at this job. If it can bind to the host cell more effectively, the amount of virus needed to create an infection in a human is lower.
So a dose of virus which might not previously have been enough to lead to an infection could now be sufficient. Government advice on social distancing/masks etc is all about lowering exposure to the virus to as safe a level as possible. But if the ability of the virus to infect increases, those measures could become far less effective, and each infectious person could transmit the virus to more people.