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Time to start with super clear messaging again…
STAY HOME
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1341433362897121280?s=21
1040 per 100 000..isnt it, but even so!!
Sorry, you are correct - mixing number of cases and the rate. Phew! Kind of.
TiRed, can you explain why you think your MiL should have jumped the queue laid out in the govt's position? You obviously realise that her having a shot would have prevented (delayed) someone else higher on the list from having it.
Unless you think capacity to administer the vaccine is currently the limiting factor in which case it might have made sense to do two together. Don't believe that is the case but willing to be corrected.
I agree with the post a little above BTW the news about the new variant is extremely worrying and we may only have a month or two two get as much vaccination done as possible. My modelling now suggests we could easily go well past the 1000 deaths a day of the first wave otherwise. In fact it's already looking unlikely we will avoid breaching that threshold.
Tory politician (Damian Green?) complaining that France gave no real warning that they would close borders. We can do last minute reactions… but we then expect other countries to sit on their hands…
I'm sure they would have appreciated a slightly earlier warning about the new variant, too. Documents describing the potential risks have been circulating for quite a while, even though our PM can't be arsed to read them.
has it been ruled out that it might be linked to a species jump, like the Minx one?
The French are intending to make vaccination a condition for use of public transport
Not according to Verran on TV earlier, TF1 news or the press:
Medway in Kent – 2902 cases per 100,000. Chuffing Nora!
Oh 1040 per 100,000 is a little better.
Glad I'm not there.
Oh hang on.
Chuffing Nora!
Medway in Kent – 2902 cases per 100,000. Chuffing Nora!
Yep, I'm smack in the middle of Medway. You local to ground zero too?
@poopscoop
Oh yes. Been following the numbers and been wondering what was going on since November as with every new restriction they numbers kept on rising.
Maybe we should meet up. Oops no.
See you in 2022 maybe
Wow, thought it was bad up here when Blackburn hit 800, what the hell are you lot doing down there?
Some joined up thinking is clearly missing here.
The split households was fairly obvious I'm really surprised it's not been accounted for. Or why it was ruled out.
Gah, my youngest has a positive test in her class last Friday. I think that means we all have to isolate for 10 days?
Not that we are going anywhere...
TiRed, can you explain why you think your MiL should have jumped the queue laid out in the govt’s position? You obviously realise that her having a shot would have prevented (delayed) someone else higher on the list from having it.
I don’t particularly, but she’s a 78yo full time career exposed to further (untested) carers who enter the house twice daily whilst seeing at least 20 other homes per day. And of course the vaccination took quite a logistic challenge, since my FIL can’t travel easily. So have to do it again for his next dose, and then when her turn.
Gah, my youngest has a positive test in her class last Friday. I think that means we all have to isolate for 10 days?
Our kids schools/college only tell the close contacts to isolate, not the whole class? You might be lucky-ish 🤞
@kryton57, this is what annoys me..For 9 months I've been told that I have a condition that puts me at higher risk. Sure the risk is still low, but I bet it's a higher risk than a 55 year-old with no underlying conditions.
Quoted below is From nhs scotland site with guidance from November.... I want to know why, as soon as a vaccine became available, we are suddenly no longer deemed to be an at an increased risk. I think it's a fair question tbh..
It’s important to remember however, that those over the age of 70 without an underlying health condition and under the age of 70 who receive the flu jab for medical reasons are still classed as being at an increased risk from severe illness from COVID-19 and should be particularly careful in following physical distancing
measures along with hand washing and cough hygiene.
Bored of the anti-French BBC talk (I’ve avoided the papers, I dread to think) as regards the block on movement, because of things being clearly out of control in SE England… so depressing. The Jingo-ism is only going to ramp up, if things get worse here, and other countries do what needs doing.
Have we covered this yet?
New South African strain that seems to affect the young more.
South african strain
Looks like Cumbria is warming up - Penrith and the Eden Valley at the moment; tier 2 and it's only Tuesday.
Penrith and the Eden Valley at the moment; tier 2 and it’s only Tuesday.
Next stop Carlisle, Keswick, and Barney/Darlo. Last time I looked it was only popping up in Kirkby Stephen and Brough, and that was only a couple of days ago.
There was a mention in one article of a factory where 50% of workers had it. I'll assume most have families, kids etc. It's easy to see how it can spread in close knit communities, even in sleepy Penrith
"Medway in Kent – 2902 cases per 100,000. Chuffing Nora!"
"Yep, I’m smack in the middle of Medway. You local to ground zero too?"
Work on Medway City Industrial estate, back in June took over the running of the night shift as only four people instead of twenty five on site so cutting my exposure down. Finished early Friday morning and not back until the New Year and quite worried about going back as where I live there is a very low rate 🥺
Here in Sydney we had another good day yesterday: 44,000 tests, which is a record for us (38,000 the day before - about 4x what we would usually do), and only 8 new positives (down from 15 the day before, 28 the day before that).
Our state premier Gladys Berejiklian is making an announcement today about Christmas: will restrictions in the northern beaches be eased? Will restrictions in the rest of Sydney get tightened up (pretty much "business as usual, but wear a mask" at present).
So far - the response is looking really effective: by-and-large they have contained the spread of the cluster to a relatively small area - with only a few cases contracted outside that. The tracking-and-tracing has been excellent: lists of venues, even Bus and train numbers/times connected with infected people are being published regularly, so people can go and get themselves tested.... and they are, in record numbers.
All the positive cases are being genotyped - and they have all been confirmed to come from the same source (America originally) - no announcement yet, but it looks like it was a driver transporting people to/from quarantine.
I remain skeptical about the UKs "super-strain" - I'm open to the idea that it's more transmissible, but it seems awfully convenient that people are now talking about the new strain as the reason behind the UKs current trajectory - and not the governments continuing poor response.
Re: public concerns over vaccines. I've said before that vaccine uptake is going to be a major challenge in the UK. The government need to have started a large scale education program about the basics of vaccine science months ago, and addressing peoples concerns that approval for the vaccine is going to be "rushed" through.
Bluntly: They need to wheel-out David Attenborough to explain vaccines to people. I can't think of anyone else more universally trusted by the British public. Yes there are conspiracy theorists, but I think most of the issue is that your average person on the street doesn't understand GCSE-level biology.
I remain skeptical about the UKs “super-strain”
I hope you are right. Unfortunately that thinking just doesn't correlate with the massive spike we are seeing.
For the first time since it all kicked off im feeling really depressed about the whole thing. Up until the weekend I was fairly convinced that if numbers got too out of hand then lockdown would ultimately work, like it did to stop the first wave.
With this new variant, I'm not so sure lockdown (or at least similar style of lockdown to phase 1) will work.
For the first time since it all kicked off I'm feeling really depressed about the whole thing. Up until the weekend I was fairly convinced that if numbers got too out of hand then lockdown would ultimately work, like it did to stop the first wave.
With this new variant, I’m not so sure lockdown (or at least similar style of lockdown to phase 1) will work.
Yes I understand, there is also the come-down after seeing the light at the end of the tunnel too (vaccine). Everyone in the UK I've spoken to is very worried, and that's an appropriate response I think. Certainly it's going to be a very bumpy ride for the next couple of months.
I think a lockdown will suppress the spread of the virus - but it's a question of how severe, for how long to suppress it sufficiently (and what does "sufficiently" mean?).
I'd be interested to see what the spread of the "regular" strain would have been projected to be with widespread non-compliance with social distancing etc in the run up to Christmas. Anything above that could be attributed to the new strain, anything below is open to debate I think.
I've effectively put both our sets of parents into complete lockdown (Farnham and Poynton) - they are staying home for Christmas, and only going out for walks in the countryside and the occasional supermarket shop. I really don't want any of them to get it, but I REALLY don't want either of them to get it NOW.
We're all going to die of something at some point worrying about it isn't going to help
We’re all going to die of something at some point worrying about it isn’t going to help
Well firstly that may be the case but i think most of us on here have a good few years left yet!
I'm not depressed by the thought of dying (whilst it ain't a great thought it's a 1 in a hundred shot at most from covid). I'm depressed about the massive disruption to my otherwise rather sorted existence up until last Feb.
Hanging out with friends, visits to pub, overseas trips, visiting my parents, it's all pretty much stopped overnight.
Now don't get me wrong, it stopped for the right reasons, and in the grand scheme of things I've been fortunate, folks have been dying by the thousand, made redundant, lasting illness etc etc..
So whilst I am able to maintain a sense of perspective I think im still at liberty to be thoroughly depressed by the thought of 6 - 9 months of more of the same.
I was due to fly home for Christmas yesterday but my flights through Istanbul were cancelled, so back to work I go and another 2 weeks quarantine at site. The wife had bout loads of food for my trip, she has given most of it to food bank and handed other bits out around the village.
I probably won’t get home again until March now
Tony Blair's suggesting speeding up vaccine roll out and using all available does as first dose with second dose when available i.e. April onwards
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/covid-vaccine-tony-blair-coronavirus-b1777845.html
Gah, my youngest has a positive test in her class last Friday. I think that means we all have to isolate for 10 days?
No @kryton57 just your daughter as she was the only in close contact with the positive testing person.
I remain skeptical about the UKs “super-strain”
Yeah, I can understand that attitude, but unfortunately the evidence is really clear-cut. The government response has been poor and remains so, but the new variant is a significantly bigger challenge.
In fact the govt has quite predictably under-responded to this new threat too. We should probably be in a national lockdown and rushing out the vaccine with no holds barred as it could easily overwhelm us very rapidly. We may only have a few weeks now.
I remain skeptical about the UKs “super-strain”
Well nothing changed in behaviour in north Kent, but in November there was a sudden increase in cases especially in schools with lots closing completely.
There isn't a better explanation yet.
And anyone know what's the explanation for south Wales as Merthyr Tydfil had 1300 per 100,000. Is it the new variant as well?
One more passenger on the Hypocrite Express.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55419954/blockquote >
They're full of it.
BBC interviewed an English epidemiologist the other day, talking about Christmas celebrations (before the updated restrictions) and how bad it could cause the spread and people need to really think about their plans and think do they really need to celebrate with others and how zoom can be great etc.
The final question - "Are you celebrating Christmas with anyone?"
Response - "Yes, I'm traveling to spend the time with my 2 children and the grandchildren"The last 10 mins of her preaching about how we should be careful and minimise contacts etc went completely out of the window with that final response.
And anyone know what’s the explanation for south Wales as Merthyr Tydfil had 1300 per 100,000.
No @kryton57 just your daughter as she was the only in close contact with the positive testing person.
Thanks for clarifying. Having argued the toss in this thread about how easy I felt it was to follow the rules I know find myself in window of hypocracy for which I apologise. Surely as we’ve been in contact with her we should avoid contact, especially with the new strain?
Kind a moot point as we won’t be seeing anyone before well, 2021 anyway, case was positive last Thursday.
Surely as we’ve been in contact with her we should avoid contact, especially with the new strain?
Very much yes, but thats not the rules
@kryton, officially no, only if you show symptoms. The reality of course, of whether you can really isolate a 10yo, lock her in her room, feed her by leaving meals outside the door, get her to back track with disinfecting spray every time she comes out to use the toliet....that's what we did for my 16yo recently but she's 16.
So pragmatism is to try to hands-face-space as much as you can, try not to go out - you can't really go out anyway - but if you do do it with caution.
This new variant is more transmissable but it still is the likelihood by %'s that she HASN'T picked it up from her classmate. My daughter was in direct contact with the girl in her class - they are performing arts and were doing physical theatre and dance, touching, speaking, etc., and the 'only' measure was masks.
My daughter then had a test 5 days after contact with her classmate (her work requested as she works in a supermarket and they wanted to know if she could have passed it on in there) and tested negative.
WRT
In fact the govt has quite predictably under-responded to this new threat too.
I said a few pages back this new variant is a RED HERRING - in the sense that i do believe it exists and the transmissability is true but the Gov is hiding behind that and only knowing about it last Friday. It's irrelevant (even if true) - the cases were increasing and we failed to respond to that when we had the chance.
Gah, my youngest has a positive test in her class last Friday.
Same here, but with my eldest in P7. Sent home from school yesterday as one of her friends, which she has had close contact with tested positive on Friday.
We were going to meet up with with my BIL and his family for a walk tomorrow. Not doing that now.
We are in Inverness which up until now has had a pretty low rate of cases.
the cases were increasing and we failed to respond to that when we had the chance.
In truth, cases were not falling during lockdown, rather than rising, in the south east of the country. Only in the few days before Dec 02 did they show an up turn. Hospital admissions were stable.
In other parts of the country they declined. There was no precedent for lockdown with schools open. So making a call on the disparity was harder than hindsight might suggest.
Just been waiting outside my local farm shop which is dishing out the Christmas orders this morning. All the old folk queuing in a tiny corridor, no distancing, no ventilation. Or any sanitiser outside the door. Masks are useful, but they have made people utterly complacent.
wasnt that always likely to happen. the relative usefulness outweighed by the relaxed application of other social distancing measures. never been a fan.
I also cant see past France shutting the boarder as much on a brexit basis as a genuinely spotted opportunity to prevent increased infection - but by the time those figures are available the damage is done 🙁
I said a few pages back this new variant is a RED HERRING – in the sense that I do believe it exists and the transmissibility is true but the Gov is hiding behind that and only knowing about it last Friday.
I agree.
It's transmitted the same way, with no evidence that it's carried by different groups... we have allowed the virus to "trickle" along at a rate where any sudden increase in transmission can not be contained. It was reckless to not try and get prevalence down low... the political choice to just damp down the spread, rather than reduce it, was only ever going to result in spreading this second wave throughout the winter... we were always going to be where we are.
the relative usefulness outweighed by the relaxed application of other social distancing measures
I agree.
The answer isn't "no masks" though, it's the reiteration of the other measures required "as well" as masks. The government sold us masks as a way to not have to social distance, to get us all back commuting and working on site over the summer. They now need to actively counter their own messaging... I suggest the PM's press conferences and the gov's adverts switch to 2 metre distancing again... the 1 metre advice just leads to no social distancing at all.
It's not even that, we knew cases were increasing and we didn't know why. But we knew they were. The cause (transmission) wasn't important but the effect was everything.
They knew this weeks ago, but allowed everyone to get revved up for Christmas. They scoffed at SKS at PMQ's and wished everyone a merry little christmas. Once again, they didn't listen to the scientists of PHE and NHS demanding action.
Can a government be guilty of corporate manslaughter? This is criminal incompetence.