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The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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or have we as a society managed to lose trust in experts

When this is all done, and scientists have saved the day for us (pharma, modelling, behavioural, epidimiologists, all of them) I'd like for them to have 10 minutes en masse in a suitable space with all those 'I think we've all had enough of experts' ****ts

Society should lose faith in piss-poor nest-feathering politicians a long time before experts.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 2:12 pm
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FWIW, I think that there is good evidence that the strain is more easily passed from person to person, that it is probably already in other countries (when they sequence their samples rather than test for presence of TNA), and that the polyclonal response from vaccines will protect against disease.

Apologies if you've already answered this, TiRed..

How easy is it to detect new strains with mass testing? It feels like the news was telling us about a potential new strain one day, and only a day or two later actual numbers were being confirmed in the population. Was this using standard testing, or something different?


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 2:13 pm
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As for the Googling, of course I have, but have you tried getting unbiased information on vaccination recently

Yes, my brother (phd/academic/qualified doctor) sits on the UK's covid vaccine safety panel. He will have access to all the information to make an informed decision on vacine safety. I'm pretty sure he hasn't just relied on Google to come to a professional opinion.

And he seems to think that vaccination is a good idea. that's good enough for me.

Now, where do you get your unbiased information from?


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 2:17 pm
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How easy is it to detect new strains with mass testing?

Labs test for three regions ([N]ucleocapsid, [O]pen [R]eading frame and S[pike]) of the viral genome using primers and amplification - one of those is the "S-gene" or spike protein coding region. This has a non-detection dropout rate of perhaps 1-2% per test. Seeing that dropout proportion rise over time is one indication of a rise in something different. The UK also genetically sequences strains so can see their emergence in real time. Other countries will be looking at spike protein negative readouts.

ONS have published the data here


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 2:19 pm
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Thanks TiReD.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 2:29 pm
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comes across as a counterproductive insult

I agreed with the sentiment but agree that the frustration(?) from some people jumping in to answer the doubters leads to some inflammatory sounding comments, intentionally or not. So they focus on the tone and not the message.

Anyone else get the impression that batfink is TiReds less patient antipodean alter ego? 🤣


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 2:41 pm
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I agreed with the sentiment but agree that the frustration(?) from some people jumping in to answer the doubters leads to some inflammatory sounding comments, intentionally or not. So they focus on the tone and not the message.

This is obviously a generalisation but it's my perception that true anti vaxxers are relatively intelligent. Deluded, misguided and possibly festooned with mental health and anxiety issues but they are what they are. To a certain extent they have come to a conclusion and won't be swayed. Beyond help and to a certain extent if that's what they think so be it - it's (mostly) their funeral.

It's the next level that we collectively have a moral obligation to help. Those non too bright but easily swayed. The gullible. The cohort of the population that don't read even the simplest of tabloid newspapers because it's all a bit too complicated. Those who rely on memes on social media as their influencers.

It is for those people that the anti vaxxers need a metaphorical kicking. Boris standing on a lectern and saying it is of course a free country and no one is going to be forced to take the vaccine maybe factually correct but I don't think it helps. The anti vaxxer lot won't be playing so nicely. 40% of minimum/living wage care workers currently plan on not taking it and they have not come to that conclusion without a prod. You need a Whitty or someone similar and largely trusted losing his shit with the stupidity of it. The anti vax lot need drowning out and their views portrayed as they are - marginal and based on lies or at the very best poorly interpreted science. Giving them the respect of being argued with is clearly not working.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 2:57 pm
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Giving them the respect of being argued with is clearly not working.

I agree.

Give them an inch, and, even when they've taken a mile, they'll always want more.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:04 pm
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It's the COVID deniers that really boil my piss. The "plandemic" crowd that shout so vociferously on social media saying there is no virus or "it's just a cold". These people should be locked in a room and the virus pumped in. Obviously they won't get ill because "there is no virus" so they should be fine with the experiment


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:16 pm
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Balance in the media is a good and necessary thing, but it must also be moderated - Brexit, climate change, Covid, they all get media coverage but when leavers/climate deniers/anti-vaxers get to share the same platform, there needs to be a voice saying "Turkey is not joining the EU/the rise in global temperatures are not caused by clouds/Bill Gates is not putting microchips into vaccines", and explaining WHY those views are wrong. Patel was doing the rounds this morning saying the government has been ahead of the curve with Coronavirus - the lies HAVE to be challenged and shown to be wrong at the time they're made. That's why this country is in the utterly divided position it's in.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:18 pm
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Anti vaxxers are like neo-nazis - their beliefs hurt others. We can't stop them having their beliefs but we can and should deny them a platform. Trouble is they'll then use that as evidence that "the system" is oppressing them. Tricky problem.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:18 pm
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40% of minimum/living wage care workers currently plan on not taking it and they have not come to that conclusion without a prod

If you are a care worker looking after the elderly or vunerable, and you aren't prepared to get a vacination, then you should be made to find another job. No ifs or buts...


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:28 pm
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That would currently breach employment law.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:32 pm
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If you are a care worker looking after the elderly or vunerable, and you aren’t prepared to get a vacination, then you should be made to find another job. No ifs or buts…

There is currently no evidence as to whether the vaccine will stop you passing the virus on so for all we know being jabbed might not help protect the elderly unless they have been jabbed too


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:41 pm
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If you are a care worker looking after the elderly or vunerable, and you aren’t prepared to get a vacination, then you should be made to find another job. No ifs or buts…

its already a proffession in desparate need of more people, especially with our recent national dislike of low paid foreign workers...


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:41 pm
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That would currently breach employment law.

For existing employees potentially but it could be added to a new employee contract.

Any employer also has a duty of care to those affected by it's business. If an employee refuses to get a jab then the employer would be forced to make reasonable adjustments to ensure health and safety of all concerned. I think as a care provider organisation you'd be hard pushed to defend your position if there was a breakout of covid in your care home and it transpires 50% of the workforce hadn't had the jab.

Or they could just change the law, far easier all round..


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:45 pm
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There is currently no evidence as to whether the vaccine will stop you passing the virus on so for all we know being jabbed might not help protect the elderly unless they have been jabbed too

Well yes, I'd caveat my comments with if it's proven it doesn't reduce transmission then there would be no point. Although if that's the case I don't really care if the anti Vax lot don't get vaccinated regardless of their employment.

If its not for the greater good then they can take their chances with no impact on me, my family, and everyone else who is prepared to take it.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:51 pm
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If you are a care worker looking after the elderly or vunerable, and you aren’t prepared to get a vacination, then you should be made to find another job. No ifs or buts…

I tend to think along these lines too. The law can't force someone to get a vaccine, but equally there's nothing that forces them to work in a particular sector either.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:54 pm
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Here’s a little factoid for people who believe that tolerance & kindness are what is lacking in our (uk) collective response to Covid: Taiwan, with a population of a third of the UK has recorded precisely 7 deaths. I wonder how they did it?
Their economy isn’t doing too badly either.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 3:55 pm
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That would currently breach employment law.

The law would need to be changed. Lots of this goes on in Australia already... for other vaccines.. exclusion from professions, schooling, all sorts of things... the idea that the danger of anti-vaccine movements can be done away with simply by presenting the evidence to everyone, one by one, is dead. Yes, explain away, but it's never going to be enough.

There is currently no evidence as to whether the vaccine will stop you passing the virus

Very true. But longer term, if needed, insisting on those doing home visits being vaccinated, if that is shown to be not just beneficial but essential to prevent carers spreading the virus, should be considered. We haven't done nearly enough to protect those that need care this year (I've lost a neighbour to Coronavirus most likely brought into her home by her carers)... if we can do more in future, even if that is 2022 or later, we absolutely should.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 4:05 pm
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I’m sitting here next to my employment lawyer wife.

Her view is that you cannot force somebody to take a vaccine, however you can terminate employment if it is deemed necessary & they refuse. My job is similar - I require yellow fever and other jabs to enter certain countries. CV vaccine may well very added to the list.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 4:23 pm
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If you are a care worker looking after the elderly or vunerable, and you aren’t prepared to get a vacination, then you should be made to find another job. No ifs or buts…

I tend to think along these lines too. The law can’t force someone to get a vaccine, but equally there’s nothing that forces them to work in a particular sector either.

tell 'em they need it to go the the pub/concert/holidays and see how their opinion changes.

In seriousness, there is an interesting moral dilema here. With a non zero chance of health problems from covid (duh) and a different, non zero chance of health problems arising from a vaccine, then you essentially have the trolley problem when talking on the individual/personal level.
Is someone forcing somebody to have a vaccination who has complications with it morally responsible for their fate, even though they are, on average, acting in the best interests of the individual and the general population?


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 4:26 pm
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The French are intending to make vaccination a condition for use of public transport


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 4:35 pm
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Taiwan, with a population of a third of the UK has recorded precisely 7 deaths. I wonder how they did it?

My friend lives in Taipei, they just got on it from day 1 with track/trace, face masks etc. He's been enjoying life as normal for the last year, out riding, eating, drinking, went to gay pride even. Makes me angry to be honest not because he's enjoying himself but because of how badly our government has handled it in comparison.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 4:55 pm
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Have been looking at the guidance on phasing for vacination. Id assumed that as someone with asthma (use of daily steroid inhaler keeps it under control) I'd be invite along for a jab as part of the 'younger but in clinically vunerable' group, as defined by the nhs as having asthma that is not severe. Certainly this qualified me for the flu jab.

But turns out the vaccine committee folks state you only qualify if you have 'severe asthma', which I assume means regular flare ups despite medication.

Is disappointed. Would be interested to know if any other asthma sufferers expected to be vaccinated despite being under 50?


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 4:56 pm
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Is disappointed. Would be interested to know if any other asthma sufferers expected to be vaccinated despite being under 50?

I'm in the same boat but not disappointed, I'd rather it went to someone more vulnerable TBH.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 5:12 pm
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‘younger but in clinically vulnerable’

I think the spread of conditions and vulnerabilities is huge.
While your asthma does make you more vulnerable, there is still a priorities list here based on risk vs benefit. The most vulnerable get it first.

At least you can have it - mrs_oab can have it, but would need it every week ongoing for it to have any benefit! So she will be offered it but won't take it as it is a waste of time and money.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 5:14 pm
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My mother in law has massively compromised lung function but at just a few years under 80 had not been told when she may have vaccine. It seems older age trumps clinical conditions in the prioritisation and I guess that must be based on clinical data.

4m dosesof Oxford vaccine ready to go for uk so things will cascade quite quickly once mhra approve as long as logistics are in place.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 5:18 pm
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Have been looking at the guidance on phasing for vacination.

I looked as this today, prompted by seeing the American version in a BBC article about their new Prez getting it done. Does anyone know why their plan is different to ours? Is it just down to logistics/availability of the vaccine or something else?
RM.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 5:24 pm
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The Far East coped well with the virus because they had a little bit of a practice with SARS, that had a 10% fatality rate.

Apart from a bit of disruption to travel to the Far East, the west didn’t even raise an eyebrow when SARS kicked off.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 5:26 pm
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things will cascade quite quickly once provided mhra approve

It's not a given, like the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. I think it likely, even on the lower efficacy data, because without mRNA vaccines, we would have been happy with 62% protection from symptomatic infection.

My FIL was vaccinated yesterday. Over 80, insulin-dependent type 2 diabetic with stroke disability and a twice-daily carer in the house. My MIL (under 80, one comorbidity) was not. Of course she lives with him... Some joined up thinking is clearly missing here.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 5:33 pm
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I’m in the same boat but not disappointed, I’d rather it went to someone more vulnerable TBH

Well yes you can't argue with that logic. But all along we've been informed we are in that vunerable group, yet all of a sudden, after 10 months we are now told we No longer are.

If that's the case fair enough, however I'd be keen to know why. For example, in scotland, due to my asthma I'm a higher priority for a flu jab than someone without a condition in their 50s. Combine this with previous nhs guidance and around covid, the decision to suddenly exclude this population for the priority list seems odd.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 5:41 pm
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Some joined up thinking is clearly missing here.

They've gone for simple, rather than joined up... a simple age threshold... not smart, but can be used to get this going at speed. They can be smarter next year... for now it's just "get it out there". Not saying it's right... it just is. Driven by politics as much as medical knowledge, as always, we can safely assume.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 5:46 pm
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I was living in Taipei during SARS, and pretty much immediately facemasks were mandatory everywhere - with full compliance, temperature checks on entering pretty much any business and people avoided their version of the tube. Its a crowded city and a lot of people live in multiple generational houses & flats so I'm really surprised and impressed that they've got COVID under control so far.

Re the tube avoidance - I was told that the overall death rate went up during SARS because of the increase in road accidents as people jumped on scooters instead - the roads are crowded and fairly lawless compared to the UK.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 5:49 pm
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Her view is that you cannot force somebody to take a vaccine, however you can terminate employment if it is deemed necessary & they refuse

This seems like a bit of a luxury problem at this stage. With Dido Harding in charge I’m not rolling my sleeve up just yet.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 5:53 pm
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Yup, it'll be a long time before there's enough vaccinations out there for mandatory chat to be really relevant... Though, it's maybe a conversation you need to start having a long time before it arises.

I dunno, it's definitely a slippery slope. PAPERS PLEASE! But I can see good reasons for wanting it. I suppose a lot will hinge on how it really affects transmission- it's one thing to say "people without the vaccine have a higher risk of infecting others therefore we should restrict them", but quite another if it's "people with the vaccine can still catch and transmit exactly like anyone else, they just don't personally get as sick from it".


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 6:10 pm
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I dunno, it’s definitely a slippery slope. PAPERS PLEASE!

International travel will be the driver here. The pent-up demand to go abroad for a holiday is immense.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 6:18 pm
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Can I asked a stupid question, while you’re here being patient with us muggles TiRed … this new “mutant strain” … has it been ruled out that it might be linked to a species jump, like the Minx one? If so, how?


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 6:25 pm
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Yup, it’ll be a long time before there’s enough vaccinations out there for mandatory chat to be really relevant…

aye, if this starts coming to fruition when there are still people who want one but cant get one (next summer?), I can see it becoming a bit of a class war with private tests or the NHS ones prioritising certain areas... including you north of the wall fellas if you mention indyref2 too many times.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 6:34 pm
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The government have had to add a new colour to the Covid map for "Over 800 cases per 100,000". 12 areas are now over 1,000 per 100,000 = 1% of population...


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 6:36 pm
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Radio4… Tory politician (Damian Green?) complaining that France gave no real warning that they would close borders. We can do last minute reactions… but we then expect other countries to sit on their hands…


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 6:42 pm
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The government have had to add a new colour to the Covid map for “Over 800 cases per 100,000”. 12 areas are now over 1,000 per 100,000 = 1% of population…

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Colours are a bit screwy on the map currently. Look like they need an update. If you click on the authorities it look way more than 12 over 1000 now.

Medway in Kent - 2902 cases per 100,000. Chuffing Nora!


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 6:43 pm
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… has it been ruled out that it might be linked to a species jump, like the Minx one? If so, how?

Every mutation and the deletion have been seen previously. The combination of multiple mutations is of most interest and there may have been within-human selection, possibly in a prolonged infection in someone immunocompromised. I don’t think Denmark were typing strains like we were. But I think it much more likely that this is just natural human virus selection. These outer proteins are plastic. It’s how viruses evolve.


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 7:15 pm
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So likely to have all happened within humans, rather than traced and shown to be so? I’ll accept that might be the most confident we can be, I was just wondering if we could be more definitive?


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 7:23 pm
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Medway in Kent – 2902 cases per 100,000. Chuffing Nora!

1040 per 100 000..isnt it, but even so!!


 
Posted : 22/12/2020 7:25 pm
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