We’re moving into the delay stage, which in this government’s case seems to mean delaying doing anything until it’s too late.
They don't give a **** about it spreading further at all do they?
Over 45 other countries, With fewer (known) cases than ours have taken the extreme measures of closing schools, Banning sporting events and gatherings.
What do Britain think they know that these other countries don't?
It's ok we'll British this thing out!
They don’t give a **** about it spreading further at all do they?
Because they know it will. Current estimate is that 80% of us will get it. It's all about the when rather than the if - if we all catch it at once the NHS will implode.
Because they know it will. Current estimate is that 80% of us will get it. It’s all about the when rather than the if – if we all catch it at once the NHS will implode.
Do Denmark and Ireland etc not know this?
To all those bemoaning the UK gov approach... The gov here in Germany isn't too dissimilar. Football matches behind closed doors, no gatherings over 1000 people, there are around 25 schools closed in Munich alone and those returning from Italy are told to quarantine their kids,but everyone (with exceptions like myself) carries on more or less as normal. The trains are full with commuters.
Lots of friends have recently returned with kids from their ski holidays in Italy. It's only a 3 hour drive from here.
People are beginning to question why everything remains business as usual given neighbouring countries are taking more drastic measures.
Although it's odd that Germany has many infections but relatively few deaths, 1900 and 4 respectively.
They’re unfit, chronically ill 65+ year olds with a life expectancy without medical assistance of months at best when they’re not dying of corona, a few years on average through the marvels of medical science.
This sums up most of the over 75s I know. All kept alive through various pills, inhalers and regular check ups.
I'm amazed they're taking such a massive risk on this. It's one thing if the science is saying cancelling sporting events etc will make little difference, but going against what other countries who are further down the line are doing looks like irresponsibility. They talk about the behavioural psychology element of it, which I don't deny, but by not demonstrating clear decisive action they'll erode confidence and potentially increase panic. They need to be seen to be doing something, as people expect clear demonstrable action from their government in times of crisis. Telling people not to go on cruises but otherwise carry on isn't going to cut it, and If/when it goes tits up people will be calling for Boris's head.
Over 45 other countries, With fewer (known) cases than ours have taken the extreme measures of closing schools, Banning sporting events and gatherings.
Which of these countries were successful in their methods?
I don't understand why our response seems to be different to other countries.
Our medical experts must be advising differently to other countries, which means know one has a scooby
Lets hope we look back at this in a couple of months and go, see we were right, all a big bunch of over reacting.
I was told hope isn't a strategy...I'd rather we took a hit and did our utmost to preserve life than leave it to chance when the odds are a bit scary for certain demographs
so is it an issue if we all get it now and then reappears at a later date?
I’m not sure, all I’ve learned about the immune system over the past few years is directly related to my spms diagnosis and I don’t have the knowledge to extrapolate what I do know about the function of the immune system to other illnesses, especially when caused by viral illnesses.
I follow the “if you don’t know or aren’t 100% sure then stfu”
They’re was a post on a large immunology forum a few weeks ago explaining that as those in certain undeveloped countries had been exposed more often to similar Coronavirus outbreaks, then their immune system went into overdrive by recognising the virus and sending their immune system into meltdown
Which of these countries were successful in their methods?
Hubei went from 1000s of new daily cases to dozens in a few weeks. South Korea brought it under control within a couple of weeks. Jury is still out on Italy and Iran as not enough time has passed yet.
seems to be different to other countrie
My 2p is he’s taking a gamble. I haven’t seen anything to suggest that closing schools would “do more hard than good” I can’t imagine why that would be the case.
He knows that if schools close now, it’ll be a big knock for the economy - markets dropped 10% today, they’re saying it’s the worst drop since the 80s, well shitfire I remember because I was working in banking at the time the credit crunch hit and that was going to be the end of days, for shares at least this is worse somehow.
Anyway, schools and childcare places closed means millions of workers either WFH or just don’t work, that’s a big deal for the economy and will likely trigger a recession if it hasn’t already, a recession which will be reported at the end of the year, just when they’re trying conclude Brexit - he knows if he has to cancel, or even delay Brexit he’s dead politically.
I’d bet he’s gambling on a bit of luck with numbers carrying us to Easter when the kids are off for 2 weeks anyway to keep the economy going.
Like the Scientist Sir whatshisnamew said after Boris, we have no immunity against this. My daughters class had a case of Hand Foot and Mouth in the last few weeks, no usually for a primary school. 4 kids got it in her class. If I understand him (and I probably don’t) when Coronavirus arrives most of not all of them will get it because they’re 5 and spend all day touching their face and anything else they see. None of them will get very ill thankfully, but 1 kid in my daughters class with CV means 30 in days, than it’s 30 families so that’s 90+ and soon enough it’ll reach their grandparents.
I think he’s taken a gamble with other people’s lives.
Is that it? The great pearl of wisdom these people have come up with to keep us safe…thats pretty much the best they have.. ?
No, there’s lots more but you know it just doesn’t sound as dramatic and scary as you’re claim.
Lets hope we look back at this in a couple of months and go, see we were right, all a big bunch of over reacting.
There's no win on this. If it turns out to be relatively minor, the Government will get it in the neck for crashing the economy, over-reacting etc etc. You see it occasionally with Y2K bug stuff saying that it was all a nonsense, nothing happened etc - nothing happened becasue a LOT of people behind the scenes were working their arses off to make sure nothing happened and they (more or less) pulled it off!
If it turns out to be actually really rather major then we're all ****ed anyway. Even if they go into full-on lockdown now, there's no way in hell the social and emergency services can cope - my guess is that the Government is thinking exactly the same and rather than panic everyone more than they already are, it's a case of hiding as much as they can and blustering over the cracks.
And at the end of the year Brexit kicks in and we're totally utterly screwed - especially with regards to European Medicines Agency, access to drugs, testing protocols, import/export and EU funds to help recover from a disaster.
My 2p is he’s taking a gamble. I haven’t seen anything to suggest that closing schools would “do more hard than good” I can’t imagine why that would be the case.
I thought this was alluded to in the press conference. If you close the schools then what do people do with their kids? They send them to the grandparents, who in turn are then much more likely to come into contact with the virus and are also most at risk.
Why do a lot of people on this thread believe that they and some internet bloggers know better than the medical advisors. They aren’t hiding anything - they said it is likely there are 5-10k cases in all likelihood. South Korea brought it under control without resorting to mass restrictions on people. To a certain extent people are starting to self isolate anyway.
If you don’t like the governments advice then go stock up on bog roll and pasta and sit in your home for the next 6 weeks. There is nothing stopping you making your own decisions. None of the stuff the government will do in the next weeks is out of individuals control anyway.
I agree with kryton - a lot of politically motivated bluster and no trust in the medical experts who have access to a lot more data and information than we do.
a lot of politically motivated bluster and no trust in the medical experts who have access to a lot more data and information than we do.
I'll ask again what do our experts see differently from irish or danish ones?
Hubei went from 1000s of new daily cases to dozens in a few weeks. South Korea brought it under control within a couple of weeks. Jury is still out on Italy and Iran as not enough time has passed yet.
But how long can they sustain the mitigation measures they have put in place? This is the point I think. There is no immunity, the same amount of the population will get this. You don't want your health service stretched to the point that the death rate goes up (Italy), but if you flatten the curve too much, the mitigation becomes unsustainable.
Save the lock-down for the peak was the message I took away from today.
Could really do with a beer with the old man about now.
If I didn’t have a persistent sore throat and cough that is.
Part of the problem.is that the government just spent the last 3 years telling us that experts are not to be trusted
So now half the population don't trust experts & the other half just assume that everything Johnson & co says is a lie.
That's populism for ya !
Maybe the same as the South Korean ones did?
I can understand the logic of not closing schools...you cause massive disruption, for what? When Ireland's schools reopen in April, you can guarantee there'll be far more cases in the wild in Ireland than there are now, so what have they achieved?
Thing is, this isn’t a subjective thing like politics where you can argue round and round until you can prove you were right all along, even when you are wrong. On this one you are going to be proved emphatically right or (more likely) wrong in fairly short order.
My betting on this is that you are wrong. We are going to end up in the same place Italy is now in 9-14 days. There is no reason to suppose otherwise. You either go draconian early or you ride it out. It is now too late to do anything other than ride it out.
With the long incubation period and the high transmitability (is that even a word) the only thing that can realistically slow the spread significantly is personal hygiene and distancing.
Mind you, I reckon there is a higher chance of me pegging it from a rage-induced coronary trying to get rid of the ads on this site that seem to have adopted a cross in the top right hand corner as meaning “Yes, yes, I would love to be directed to a site selling me a naff Mason’s car” rather than “Get your intrusive shit out of my face”.
Anyway, I think a combination of arrogance, laziness and disdain is what the U.K. response to Coronavirus will be remembered for.
It was all just too much bother and it was too embarrassing to admit we just didn’t have the will or the facilities to deal with it early and decisively.
No, there’s lots more but you know it just doesn’t sound as dramatic and scary as you’re claim.
This.
I had a very, very long chat with our Infection Control department yesterday, for various reasons.
They seem to think the current guidelines are sensible, which is good enough for me.
I've also been to one of the testing stations and would be happy to work there again.
Lots of ordinary 'flu about atm as well, which isn't helping.
Why do a lot of people on this thread believe that they and some internet bloggers know better than the medical advisors. They aren’t hiding anything – they said it is likely there are 5-10k cases in all likelihood. South Korea brought it under control without resorting to mass restrictions on people.
The UK strategy is very different to Korea. Korea have tested 200K people and meticulously traced contacts. Their cases have been dropping for over a week and they might get away with 10K cases.
Our strategy is to let it go through the whole population and they aren’t interested in testing non hospital cases now. They will let it infect 10’s Millions of people in the next 6 month.
When Ireland’s schools reopen in April, you can guarantee there’ll be far more cases in the wild in Ireland than there are now, so what have they achieved?
Delay?
Whay do the irish not see it as you do?
I’ll ask again what do our experts see differently from irish or danish ones?
I would like an answer to this too.
Even if they go into full-on lockdown now, there’s no way in hell the social and emergency services can cope – my guess is that the Government is thinking exactly the same and rather than panic everyone more than they already are, it’s a case of hiding as much as they can and blustering over the cracks.
This is basically where I am at.
The NHS gets ****ed over when there are a few icy pavements. Population of 65m with 60% getting the virus and at least 5% of them needing care that cannot be administered at home? That’s nearly 2 million people in a period of time that is likely less than six months. Anyone been to an average city hospital recently? Not a ****ing chance this can be satisfactorily treated in the NHS.
What wasn't stated in johnson's presser earlier is that having an STW P gives immunity.
I wonder what's going to happen in those EU countries with large migrant makeshift camps...
Our strategy is to let it go through the whole population and they aren’t interested in testing non hospital cases now.
If that is the strategy, and it would appear it is, then it's going to backfire massively when the deaths start accumulating and people start coming into contact with those either directly or by knowing others who have lost family members. They will very quickly come to the conclusion that they've been abandoned to fend for themselves. And if the death rate here increases above other countries there will be hell to pay.
All French schools, nurseries and universities shut from Monday till necessary.
All medicine students in last year and recently retired asked to go and help.
Public transport remain open but people encouraged to work from home.
Government will pay for people to stay at home without loosing their job. Especially employed and self employed.
Taxes due in March delayed for as long as possible.
Whay do the irish not see it as you do?
Look I don’t care what the other countries are doing AA you’re still going to school tomorrow, now get to your room.
I know the focus is on NHS but does government have option to call in private facilities? How many extra resources are available if you start to reach out to those. My wife for example works for a hospice mainly providing palliative care so has a modest number of beds, nurses etc. I assume there’s hundreds of places up and down the country that could be enlisted if needed?
Dunno if this has been covered but im curious to know why on earth our Gov and Health Advisers think herd immunity is the best way to go about this
The crazy thing is other experts are saying you might not get herd immunity with this.
Some Coronavirus can be caught again and again.
Will be a bit embarrassing if we have a few million dead in 3-4 months and people still getting reinfected.
Personally I think we should go all out like China/Korea, if ultimately it starts to come back when measures are lifted then put the brakes on again. In 1 year we could have a vaccine, better to try and hold it at bay until then.
There’s a good video in which Patrick Vallance explains the approach being recommended by the scientific advisers to the government here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51857856
There’s already a lot of pretty lame political point scoring on this thread but the approach the government are taking seems to be evidenced based and credible.
Just because other countries are isolating now doesn’t mean they will effectively control this disease over the long term.
Dunno if this has been covered but im curious to know why on earth our Gov and Health Advisers think herd immunity is the best way to go about this
Because they have weighed up the pros and cons differently than you would.
Look I don’t care what the other countries are doing AA you’re still going to school tomorrow, now get to your room.
Bastard!
Because they have weighed up the pros and cons differently than you would.
But I think its a fair question to ask why a lot of near neighbours are doing things differently.
I know the focus is on NHS but does government have option to call in private facilities?
I’m not sure they’d be much good, the vast majority of private hospitals are geared towards elective surgery not medicine as such and they tell you (via a disclaimer) if anything goes wrong while you’re at Spire / Bupa etc they’re going to call an Ambo and ship you off to the closest NHS hospital that has the right people and kit to deal with more than tit jobs, vasectomies and carpel tunnel surgery.
I thought this was alluded to in the press conference. If you close the schools then what do people do with their kids? They send them to the grandparents
I missed that bit, it does seems to have a certain logic... not sure I agree with it. Boris covered please wash your hands, if could have easily been added “don’t ship your little germ factories off to their grandparents are they’ll die”.
@kerley You're right, they appear to be holding the economy with a greater value than human lives. Also, my job is to analyse this virus and report back to the company. My team researches mortality longevity and thus monitors outbreaks of pandemics and disease etc. Many of them have never heard nor seen a Gov react to an outbreak/pandemic/illness by letting it rampage through a country...
Shut down the country and people will rebel.
Introduce a lot of complex and onerous instructions and people will ignore them
Introduce a few simple guidelines that are easy to follow and most people will follow them.
If you want people to do something you have to keep it simple.
I know the focus is on NHS but does government have option to call in private facilities?
Yes is the simple answer.
The Italians say that the lock down is working for them:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51852320
France have just shut all schools.
I know the focus is on NHS but does government have option to call in private facilities?
All those hospice beds are going to be useful!!!
I'm not getting drawn into the speculation and grandstanding.
What I can say is that being on the train and public spaces today there is a change of behaviour. People are waving, not shaking hands. We, and every other table, in Costa had a seat between us. People were using elbows to press train door button. Even walking across a busy pedestrian area folk seemed to be zig zagging around, not direct and close pass. Our business park is half empty - anyone who can work at home, is working from home.
Folk are washing door handles after deliveries.
Let's keep doing this. It seems reasonable and skulls help.
