Australian gp confrimed postponed. Dear me.
Italy’s attempt to close all shops, restaurants and bars isn’t really resolving that issue – how are people eating?!
They’re keeping grocery and pharmacies open.
The evidence also shows that if we do nothing or do it too late then the mortality rate will be much higher, and we’ll inevitably have to impose much more drastic measures later.
And again, we're not doing nothing. Which evidence?
Germany has had it longer then Italy, its not gone off the charts and its not a police state.
We've had it just as long and it's not gone the way you insist it should have.
Your evidence is a graph [week old that said a week ago we'd be Italy in two weeks if that was true we should be much worse off than we are by now] that only shows the data which looks vaguely similar to the worst case, disregards the bits which are completely disparate from that case but markedly similar to each other, and only shows a handfull of sets of that truncated data to show how we're going to look like the global worst case scenario rather than tracing all the not-worst cases and saying hmm "whoa something is odd in Italy but these look alike, and then Japan is an outlier too, the solution is likely to be somewhere in the middle".
Add to that you've got different populations with different dispersal, different habits, different concentration, different environments, different ages, different public reactions, different national responses the list goes on.
You're likely comparing apples with bananas because the data to narrow it down to apples and pears, let alone just apples simply doesn't exist.
The outcome might be the same but just because I can set fire to a tree with matches doesn't mean they're lighting.
So what’s the plan?
So what’s the plan?
The plan is to attempt to control the rate at which people fall ill and require hospitalisation. Otherwise some people who require intensive care will not receive it. And, if it's a sensible one, to take major steps to reduce the exposure of the people in the most vulnerable groups.
Basically, everyone getting it in the next six weeks - bad. Everyone getting it over the next six to nine months - much better.
There is a halfway house between everyone staying home and a free-for-all where grandma is still going to bingo every week.
Italy’s attempt to close all shops, restaurants and bars isn’t really resolving that issue – how are people eating?!
They’re keeping grocery and pharmacies open.
Ah, didn't know that, makes sense. It's the tradeoff we have though - it allows some spread, but also means people can eat.
The outcome might be the same but just because I can set fire to a tree with matches doesn’t mean they’re lighting.
- shit analogy alert !
– shit analogy alert !
Yeah I rather struggled for one which was in sight of a reasonable one, feel free to improve on it!
Interesting about the temperature not being an indicator. I was refused a test here in Denmark because my temperature was not over 38, but been ill since Saturday and been exposed to someone ill after skiing in northern Italy. Been self isolating though and now it's severe testing only here as the number of cases has mushroomed.
When does the number of cases in the UK (590) overtake the number of posts in this thread (2017) ?
About six days, if we continue to follow Italy's trajectory.
Is that Brazilian John Oliver?
Oh….
he'll be fine, no other health conditions to worry about.
Mr Trump has had no significant medical problems. Mr Trump has had a recent complete medical examination that showed only positive results. Actually, his blood pressure, 110/65, and laboratory test results were astonishingly excellent.
A lengthy but (possibly?) interesting anaysis:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
We done this yet?
https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2011/10/18/boris-reveals-his-political-hero-the-mayor-fr
Cougar
SubscriberA lengthy but (possibly?) interesting anaysis:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca/blockquote >
+1 or actually +2 because I linked it on page 49. Really is a very useful explanation of how this works
I think links to that article are growing exponentially...
Three weeks now until Eurodisney holiday yay!
No sign of advice not to go so no chance of getting my 2k back yay!
I've seen ^ that post being shared many times on twitter but i dunno if id base my actions on someone who's only major publication is regarding the hidden structure behind star wars, it reads like hes gathered a lot of data together and wrote it up in a particular way to gain traction for his career.
I could be wrong but a quick search on his previous publications/writings contain mostly fluff media pieces
The Brazilian government has confirmed that president Jair Bolsonaro’s communications secretary Fabio Wajngarten has coronavirus just days after meeting Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Dom Phillips, in Rio de Janeiro, reports.
It said in a statement, confirming an earlier newspaper report:
<div class="quoted__contents">
The medical service of the Presidency of the Republic adopted and is adopting all the necessary preventative measures to preserve the health of the president of the Republic and the entire presidential committee which accompanied him on the recent trip to the United States, as well as presidential palace staff.
</div>
It added:
<div class="quoted__contents">
This is because one of the members of the group, Fabio Wajngarten, secretary of communication of the presidency of the Republic, is carrying the new coronavirus Covid-19, confirmed in a control test.
</div>
Wajngarten shared photos of himself with Trump and Mike Pence during the trip, as well as Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro and Trump dined on Saturday at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. In one video Wajngarten (wearing glasses) is seen just behind Trump and Bolsonaro.
The US government has been informed “so that they can adopt the necessary cautionary measures,” the statement said. Wajngarten is in home quarantine.
Would be such a shame if Orange Donnie has it.
Three weeks now until Eurodisney holiday yay!
No sign of advice not to go so no chance of getting my 2k back yay!
I'd give it a week before you're filling in a travel insurance form. You lucky Devil you, not many get to dodge the hell that is Eurodisney.
he's (Trump) not added brazil to the travel ban yet then ?
I’d give it a week before you’re filling in a travel insurance form
I do wonder if we're going to see a lot of insurers going bump in the not so distant future over this.
Which given how much pensions used to invest in them could turn out to be doubly crap for old folk.
I could be wrong but a quick search on his previous publications/writings contain mostly fluff media pieces
The data, charts and logic he presents are very easy to follow and make fairly good sense. it doesn't need a genius in data modelling and statistics to understand the simple concept of exponential growth, but it does require a decent story teller who can put the pieces together from available data. The fact that this is popular is that it easily explains something in non-academic language.
I linked it on page 49.
Ah, sorry for the duplicate, I missed it first time around.
Scarfolk Council have this sorted
I do wonder if we’re going to see a lot of insurers going bump in the not so distant future over this.
How many airlines and holiday companies are still going to be in business by the end of the year if this carries on?
The fact that this is popular is that it easily explains something in non-academic language.
It is "popular" - I haven't seen anyone credible post it - because it confirms some people's biases, if you want some proper information, follow the links I posted yesterday.
it doesn’t need a genius in data modelling and statistics to understand the simple concept of exponential growth
Ah, like all those expert epidemiologist types who aren't publishing this then?
We've had enough of experts thank you very much
BJ is about to give a press conference, I see schools being closed, advice to work from home/self distance people etc. Its getting pretty real now.
I was just made redundant and have 2 interviews lined up, chances of them being delayed seem worryingly high...
Schools aren’t being closed (yet).
Jp
Re. the herd immunity, a few weeks ago researchers were saying more young poeple were dying in the far east than expected becasue they had been previously exposed to various coronaviruses and the body was going into overdrive then failing. Has this now been disproven/dropped as a theory? Because if not I'm not convinced herd immunity is the gretest idea.
that chap on he news conference just now - 590 confirmed cases means about 10k actual cases.
that chap on he news conference just now – 590 confirmed cases means about 10k actual cases
Which is what the guy in the Medium article said. The article people are shouting down.
Re. the herd immunity, a few weeks ago researchers were saying more young poeple were dying in the far east than expected becasue they had been previously exposed to various coronaviruses and the body was going into overdrive then failing. Has this now been disproven/dropped as a theory? Because if not I’m not convinced herd immunity is the gretest idea.
Young people? All the stats say unless over 65, mortality rates are negligible at best
^ due to increase of immune system cytokine response in which antibodies produced to combat the virus start a cascade effect on the body and the immune system turns on itself, similar effects can happen in very healthy/fit young people with a strong immune system and also pregnant women as their immune system is on high alert to protect the foetus.
the look on his face doesn't inspire confidence
So one of the bits of advise coming out of cobra this afternoon, where the leaders of our great country and health experts gathered to keep us safe..
Old people over 70 should avoid going on cruises...
Is that it? The great pearl of wisdom these people have come up with to keep us safe...thats pretty much the best they have.. ?
Time is fast running out to minimise the impact of this and the government don't seem remotely willing to make some tough calls.
that chap on he news conference just now – 590 confirmed cases means about 10k actual cases.
Folks say same about italy. I can't work it if that's a good thing ie death rate is much lower than recorded) of if it just means we are even more fxxxxx
So containment phase lasted a week?
Doesn't seem to have been much containment.
Problem with meftys links is that reports commissioned 7 years ago when we had 1000s more hospital beds & austerity hadnt spent quite so long hammering social care sector in the nuts.
the look on his face doesn’t inspire confidence
He looks a bit ill. Stress from being completely out of his depth? That medical officer looks terrified too. This thing about fatigue at being isolated is rubbish. If old people are at risk they should stay in. I have no idea why they are shying away from this message.
Theres a lot of sense being made in Telly. Theres a lot of politically influenced negative conjecture on here.
I guess they know that (a) people are not great at taking orders for a long time - if you stayed home for 3 weeks solid, and felt fine, then you'd increasingly get tempted to venture out, and (b) the weakest simply *can't* be left alone for too long without other significant consequences.
I'm pretty sure that all options lead to potential bad outcomes, but I've no idea how to choose which is going to be least bad. On the face of it at least, they are listening to experts for once. Would be reassuring if the experts around the world were concluding more similar things though!
Cheers @somafunk couldn't remember the reasoning- so is it an issue if we all get it now and then reappears at a later date?
