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I'm 39, no health issues and pretty fit. I'd happily have it, not because I think I'll be seriously ill or die but because I'd like to see mine and the Mrs's family. I also really, really don't want the long term issues.
On a side note, my cousin who is 2-3 years older but pretty overweight, was on a ventilator for 10 days really early on, is now back to being healthier and fitter than he's ever been.
I think I might get it not because I'm worried about infection, but for the simple pleasure I will derive from pissing off all those mad anti-vaxxers, 5G conspiracists and HCQ fantasists out there.
dantsw13
Free MemberIf me and mine all have it, what is the risk to me if the anti-vaxxers refuse?
It's not 100% effective, is the thing. But 95% effective plus massive reduction of prevalence = pretty damn good, 5% of not much is very not much. 95% effective but not enough people getting it to really smash prevalence (because of course infection rates will be reduced by vaxxination but increased by returning to normal)- not so good.
Still, I think once they've seen the benefits and the lack of downsides, most doubters'll change their minds and only the actual idiots will refuse it. That's a much smaller demographic. I don't know about anyone else but, I've met enough sensible adults who're worried about the vaccine that I've had to stop thinking about it as the work of idiots.
It's a bigger scale vaccination program than I was expecting? A lot of the chat seemed to be moving away from mass vaccination and really focusing on targeting the vulnerable/exposed but this feels like it's almost closer to eradication than it is to that limited plan...
Reduction in risk of hospital admissions and protection against COVID19 (the disease) would be good outcomes for all. Such a therapeutic vaccine would be a huge advance because we’d still be able to open up contacts.
Instead of viewing it as sterile protection from the virus, think of it as giving you the lifetime of past infections you did not have. Kids will continue to build up their immunity as they do for other cornoaviruses.
The sterile protection and reduced transmission might be upsides.
Cases are not a true representation of underlying community transmission. They are confounded by testing practices. Look at hospital admissions, which are based on symptoms not testing. Analysis of hospital admissions at the acute trust level shows that the Tier 2/3 hospitals had a slower rate of growth (longer doubling time) than those in Tier 1. This is also evident at the NHS region data. Which is publicly available. North West (lots of Tier 2/3) admissions turned over from the end of October. South West (Tier 1) did not.
North West – showing turnover due to Tiers 2/3 from Oct 14 feeding in a week later
South West – showing limited effect of Tier 1 and later turnover due to lockdown from Nov 04 feeding in a week later
This is not immunity in the NW and not the SE, immunity is only about 10-20% of any restriction of growth. It is contact restrictions working.
Tier 3 appears to restrict spread, Lockdown will add to that, but the additional incremental benefit of lockdown with schools open is still being studied.
Tired, thanks for the reply. I agree that hospital admissions are a more reliable metric so I have found what appears to be the same data set that you are using and have broken down the data for the Liverpool City Region hospitals.
Just trying to figure out how to link the charts...
Think the analysis is sound but happy to be challenged on anything that doesn’t look right.
Do the charts not suggest that the hospital admissions in the Liverpool City Region had already plateaued before tier 3 was introduced? Am I missing something?
I use postimage for images. I only share analyses of public domain data. My other analyses are based on trust-level admissions across all tiers. I’m not sure if those are public, but point me in the right direction of the source. Wales abs Northern Ireland admissions fell off a cliff during their restrictions. I’m working on a policy plot to show this more clearly.
Looking at that data, it looks like tiers have an effect, but it’s also possible that other hospital admissions policies might have also helped with Liverpool university(did they move to other hospitals instead?) or not. Single trusts have relatively noisy data, but aggregation to regions shows a clearer less noisy picture. But it is nice data
Have had a search and have found reports of Liverpool hospitals approaching capacity but can’t find anything suggesting people were being directed to hospitals outside the region. Also, the flat spot in the overall North West line coincides with the beginning of the drop in Liverpool. If people were being transferred to other hospitals this flat spot wouldn’t be there would it?
Have added the trend line for cases on top. I can’t find the data for positivity rate. Nevertheless, assuming they haven’t reduced the quantity of testing while the region is experiencing a surge (why would they?) the infection rate is dropping long before tier 3 restrictions were introduced.
Note that the hospital admissions appear to drop 8 days after the case rate starts to drop (as would be expected).
I’m by no means suggesting that they shouldn’t have gone into tier 3 but the data available seems to suggest (to me at least) that infection rate was dropping about 2 weeks before we would expect to see any effects of the tier 3 restrictions.
Can anyone explain this? Have I missed something?
I don't really count cases as truly informative due to sampling, other than ONS and REACT (which are randomized). universities returned last week of September, at which point there was a bit of a testing epidemic in university towns and cities.
The admissions shows a more expected shape. With dip from Tier 3 - which also coincides with school holidays so as to confound things further. Also admissions fall slower than cases, again implying sampling bias in cases.
Squaredog - thanks for the graphics - very clear and easy to understand.
Tired.
Thanks for the reply.
I don’t have any data to suggest otherwise but do you have any data to demonstrate that the shape of the cases curve reflects an increase in testing in Liverpool?
Also, why do the hospital admissions peak about a week later than the peak in cases? Isn’t this what we would expect to see?
Irrespective of whether case rate reflects actual infection rate this still does not explain why hospital admissions started dropping before tier 3 was introduced.
There are two independent data sets, cases (even if less reliable) and hospital admissions, both suggesting that infection rate was dropping before tier 3 was introduced.
Haven't read all the comments but seems to be a lot of hate for people who might choose not to vaccinate.
I'm but no means an anti-vaxxer, and probably wouldn't have given it much thought had I not been working with someone who's son was one of a minority who developed narcolepsy from the swine flu vaccine and heard just how much impact on his life it's had.
Even if the risk is low, I think I'll let others go first on this one thanks.
the infection rate is dropping long before tier 3 restrictions were introduced
You could well be correct… but without admissions being seen to be dropping, deciding not to act at that point could well have been dooming hospitals to cope with a continuing rise. The decision was made working with figures that suggested admissions could keep rising… and rising from a high point. The hindsight knowledge about admissions dropping (but still high) might well have made a different decision possible (for a time traveller)… but even then you could have been missing an opportunity to drive admissions down before we get into winter proper, and the now usual winter hospital crisis.
Each vaccine already has been put into approx 50,000 people, and millions by the time it gets to you or I.
Even if the risk is low, I think I’ll let others go first on this one thanks.
That’s alright, we’ll take it for you. For the sake of you and your family, just hope that there is enough of us to do so to help keep you safe as well.
Also some of the vaccines (not so sure about the new RNA type but attenuated virus types) are essentially based on old technology with years of safe use, so the changes are relatively minor and pretty well understood from a safety POV
Kind of like having to redo the whole NCAP testing on a car because you changed the colour of the upholstery (massive exaggeration but....)
Sure, but the point made is that in the not too distant past we have an example of a rushed out vaccine causing problems, and whether slightly irrational or not, it is understandable that people may be hesitant about taking it until it’s more of a known quantity.
Don’t have the vaccine then. Just hope that enough other people do. I’m not judging.
Every drug has potential for side effects.
I work in big pharma, albeit on a different scale, we produce penicillin in its bulk form, before it goes into the secondary process, and you wouldn't believe the quality and validation that it goes through, even on an age old, tried and tested process.
There's no hate btw, just frustration at people making decisions without being informed. If you've done your homework and not sure, fair enough, it's your choice.
Don’t have the vaccine then.
That’s what he said he was going to do
I'd say throughout this thread there is hate & I think judgement clearly is being made.
If the government wants a high uptake then it has got to really understand the reasons why people might be fearful of this and do more to address that; because those fears are not unfounded.
It will have to do more to spell out exactly why it is in people's interests to vaccinate, and even more so if they are in a group that feels invulnerable to this disease because statistics are overwhelmingly in their favour.
You could well be correct… but without admissions being seen to be dropping, deciding not to act at that point could well have been dooming hospitals to cope with a continuing rise. The decision was made working with figures that suggested admissions could keep rising… and rising from a high point. The hindsight knowledge about admissions dropping (but still high) might well have made a different decision possible (for a time traveller)… but even then you could have been missing an opportunity to drive admissions down before we get into winter proper, and the now usual winter hospital crisis.
100% agree with everything you said Kelvin.
I accept that what I presented is based on a limited data set and am happy for this to be challenged. Assuming the analysis is sound though, I think it is interesting that the infection rate appears to have been attenuated by something other than additional restrictions.
Squaredog – thanks for the graphics – very clear and easy to understand.
Thanks dantsw13.
Here’s another interesting one which I created recently. This shows the ‘Registered Deaths/Expected Deaths’ by week for each region and plots the first wave against the second wave. Data up ton 6th November.
This is based on Public Health England data from here....
I think someone (pondlife?) had suggested earlier in the thread that London was the region hit hardest during the first wave of the pandemic.
If we are using these metrics, he/she appears to be correct.
If the government wants a high uptake then it has got to really understand the reasons why people might be fearful of this and do more to address that; because those fears are not unfounded.
How do they do this exactly? They've said it will be fully tested and appropriate regulatory scrutiny applied. I'd argue that Joe Public knows more about the testing regime of these vaccines than almost any other given how much of it has been headline news. It appears to me that you are saying that you are aware of that but aren't going to take it anyway because of the side effects of a completely different vaccine. Not entirely sure of the logic.
Chances of an adverse reaction to the vaccine..I'd say given 50000 have taken it so far and it's deemed safe, probably reasonably low. Whether it causes us all to become zombies in 6 months, who knows..
Chances of long covid, a debilitating illness ..1 in 10 cases apparently
Chances of myocarditis of the heart if you get covid.. Well according to one report I saw it was 50% ..
I'm more than happy to be getting a dose..
Squaredog - do you have any graphics on hospitalisation rates from 1st/2nd wave?
Im down in E Sussex, which has been one of the lowest hit throughout the pandemic. In the last few weeks its gone crazy though. I know of 5 households in the village with positive cases. In all cases the vector seems to have been 6th form age children.
Well according to one report I saw it was 50% ..
If you can remember where it was I'd appreciate a link to show my doctor.
I think someone (pondlife?) had suggested earlier in the thread that London was the region hit hardest during the first wave of the pandemic.
If we are using these metrics, he/she appears to be correct.
I did some numbers in a post a couple of days ago that also appeared to show this contention is correct.
Nobeerinthefridge
Free MemberThere’s no hate btw, just frustration at people making decisions without being informed.
Speaking for myself, I absolutely do hate anyone and everyone who's trying to discourage people from getting the vaccine, and who actively works to undermine health measures. Doing it yourself is one thing, trying to get other people to do it? Hate is the proportionate response.
There will be a high number of adverse reactions, but the vast majority will be mild. It is simply a reflection of the massive numbers being produced.
It however shouldn't put people off the vaccine, as anyone who has ever read the pack insert for any medicine will tell you, the list is terrifying.
my particular favourite found in a load is 'may cause death'
Judging from the various trial numbers and also the numbers the Chinese and Russians are coming out with (not that those 2 examples should give any faith in safety reporting) there will have been way over 1 million given one of the various vaccines by now
I develop drugs for a living. It's my day job. And I will state that I believe everyone should have the right to remove treatment consent. The only time that falls over is for children, where matters are more complex. But I don't believe in mandatory vaccination. I certainly believe in vaccination though!
The Moderna vaccine reported Grade 3 adverse event at about 2%. Grade 3 is severe, so for 1/50 it may not be the most pleasant experience. For 1/50 with infection, worse is true. For 1/200 the outcome is much much worse.
I think they have to be expecting sae's at 1-2% for the traditional vaccines. Which has to be in line with normal levels anyway
Edit, the moderna levels are way higher than the astra stage 2 trial. But the scale was significantly smaller
When sampling raw sewage was one of my tasks I was vacinated against a long list of tropical illnesses. One of them gave a reaction not far short of flu, but I didn't catch any tropical diseases. 🙂
I had the H1N1 vaccine, one of roughly a tenth of the French population who turned up to be vaccinated. If you think take up is likely to be low in the UK I reckon it wil be a lot lower in France. I'll turn up for the Covid vaccine, the lower you think turnout will be the more reason to go yourself.
The UK has some of the highest influenza vaccine take-up in the world (about 75% of target and about 75% effective). SARS-CoV-2 won't be short of people who will want vaccination. It's just media noise.
Those reactions in full - it might smart a bit but that's your immune system at work.
Grade 3 (severe) events greater than or equal to 2% in frequency after the first dose included injection site pain (2.7%), and after the second dose included fatigue (9.7%), myalgia (8.9%), arthralgia (5.2%), headache (4.5%), pain (4.1%) and erythema/redness at the injection site (2.0%).
It is simply a reflection of the massive numbers being produced.
It however shouldn’t put people off the vaccine, as anyone who has ever read the pack insert for any medicine will tell you, the list is terrifying.
The problem is that the covid sceptics, anti maskers etc will seize on every example as proof it's dangerous
Agreed, can't have it both ways though. Hide the numbers and it makes things worse. Plus regulators won't let you
Seems to bear out points above
WSJ write up of long haul covid
You would hope this might make people think of the consequences of not having the vaccine
TiRed - thought you may be interested in my friend: She is an NHS worker, who (she's pretty sure she caught C19 last week of January with all the symptoms except loss of smell and taste) still has the antibodies months later. She is tested often due to now working on a covid ward.
You would hope this might make people think of the consequences of not having the vaccine
Are you against anyone making their own informed decision?
What a fING farce of an afternoon I've had. I'll share my experience in the hope it helps others.... And maybe sharing will help me feel better.
Upon waking today my 3 year old daughter had a cough. It seemed better at breakfast but returned at lunch. Wife and talk it over.. Decide it probably fits 'continuous cough'. Quickly online I book a test at the nearest centre, 1.1 miles away, walk in testing at Streatham common. No 3yo will enjoy the test so wife and I try and explain what will happen, calmly. Leaving wife with 5 yo and 20 wo, I head off with sweets for bribes, Peppa pig on the phone, and the very nervous 3 yo. Arrive. Directed to a bay in a marquee....all fine until this point. Now it all goes wrong. In the next bay a little kid is really upset.... Understandable. His incredibly selfish mother is going batsh1t crazy at him, ranting that he has to do the test. Now it's going to be a stressful experience for a little kid, and I'll vouch for the fact that it's also stressful for parents.. But FFS,AS A PARENT YOU HAVE TO MANAGE THAT STRESS. SHOUTING AT YOUR CHILD FOR 20 MINUTES ISN'T GOING TO HELP THEM.... AND HAS A BIG IMPACT ON OTHER KIDS IN THE MARQUEE! I spent 30 minutes just cuddling and trying to calm my now crying daughter before giving up and leaving. I've now ordered a home test kit.... But the 3yo (a determined little minx at the best of times) currently won't consider that even. I'm not convinced I'd have succeeded if I'd tried, but I'm wishing I'd got in the car for the 6 mile journey to the nearest drive in centre, where I'd have had my daughter in familiar surroundings (the car) and without the distractions of other SELFISH FING IDIOTS! I chose the walk in as it was closer and had more slots/less demand.... My mistake.
The 5yo is now crying that she'll miss school, the 3 yo is determined she won't do the test....15 days of self isolation awaits....oh balls.
If you need to get a little'un tested, I hope you don't have batsh1t crazy people in the test centre, and I hope your little'un doesn't get too upset.
@cinnamon_girl
I didn't say that, I believe everyone should be accurately educated in the risks of having the vaccine against the risks from having the virus.
eliminating the hysteria and misinformation should lead to a simple conclusion which is that the vaccine should be taken
eliminating the hysteria and misinformation should lead to a simple conclusion which is that the vaccine should be taken
It’s a generalisation currently though? What about complications with existing illness, do we have any data in that? Mrs K is in he No camp because she has Lupus. A bad reaction to a vaccine could be very serious for her, and the trials of that combo could take years to work through (Lupus displays very varied symptoms across individuals). In her world she’s a better chance of everyone else taking it to avoid a C19 infection by overall reduced chance of transmission.
Yes agreed. Where medical conditions are there then consultants have that decision. My cousin will be in exactly the same place as she has sle too.
for people without medical issues then they should work on the general risk
It's really quite simple. If you don't have a genuine medical reason for not being vaccinated (supported by a certificate of exemption from your GP) then you either take the vaccination or self-isolate permanently.