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This is such a complex issue. Its basically everyone HAS to get the vaccine no choice, there is a choice and we hope that enough people choose to get it to make it effective. My partner works for the NHS and will likely get it first which we are both a bit iffy on taking something thats been pushed though so quick, but there will be a lot of social pressure within the NHS for all the staff to have it. And the danger is whee does this mandate on state required vaccines end?
It should end at the barrel of a gun.
This guy and Saddam have/had the right idea on governance 😛
Covid symptom study app is showing declining cases today and estimate R=1
0.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
Curious to know how you would put in place enough beds to deal with an exponential spread of infection? And then enough care to deal with the long term effects.
I don't believe it will be an exponential spread. It seems to be peaking around 20,000 cases similar to Spain. I agree with having measures and think they should be enforced better than they have been and better financial aid to badly hit areas to help people to isolate.
It's not really that out there to have doubts about this full lockdown at this time and people who I talk with in the real world are mostly of the same mindset and this is people of all different ages, risk factors and backgrounds but I'm aware there is a very hard set group on this thread who can only see things one way so not sure there's much point continuing to discuss here.
Re: the whole vaccine thing I agree it should be mandatory but also we should acknowledge that as a society we are asking people to put a lot of trust in 'the state' which has spent the last decade working hard to lose it.
It will be a massive uphill battle for sure.
Compulsory vaccination on the way…
https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/9253/pdf/
This is such a complex issue. Its basically everyone HAS to get the vaccine no choice, there is a choice and we hope that enough people choose to get it to make it effective. My partner works for the NHS and will likely get it first which we are both a bit iffy on taking something thats been pushed though so quick, but there will be a lot of social pressure within the NHS for all the staff to have it. And the danger is whee does this mandate on state required vaccines end?
I can't see that becoming a law, even if you ignore the anti-vaxxer types, the UK / World has become a lot more pig headed, how many anti-maskers hold such a view entirely because they don't like being told what to do?
I would guess it depends on their covid-exit strategy. I think there's two models being considered at the moment and again I'm far form sure but it comes down to how effective they are.
Model 1 is the vaccinate the vulnerable, high-risk people. Basically everyone over-65, anyone with a underlying condition and healthcare workers, this is broadly how we vaccinate for Flu now. This would need to be done annually in "Covid Season". The downside would be every years potentially thousands of people who aren't over 65 and don't have an underlying condition being hospitalised, like what happens with flu now, but far greater in number.
Model 2 to vaccinate everyone they can, they need to 'hit' 65% or so in order to reach herd immunity, so plenty of leeway for people to abstain and take their chances. The downside of this is that unless they're prepared to do it every year we run the risk of Covid19 or a new strain of it entering the UK from a country that doesn't go for mass vaccination and starting the whole process again.
I personally think the biggest danger is someone like Farage making it political, we know he doesn't care about lock-downs, he just likes the sound of his own voice and taking money from mugs. He might decide that his next route to power is to help protect those who don't want to take a "dangerous, untested drug compulsorily" and he's got enough sway with the public to delay and even derail it, just to be a dick. At that point, a I think a state sponsored 'hit' would be justified. 😉
It’s not really that out there to have doubts about this full lockdown at this time
Of course not. But, of course, there is no "full lockdown".... so which measures that are coming in this week do you think we could do away with, without allowing the pandemic to overwhelm hospitals... making non-covid care all but impossible and covid care being dangerously rationed? There are some measures I'd like to see being dropped/loosened... but I accept that while we're keeping schools open, we simply have to have greater restrictions elsewhere if we wish hospital care to be available to those that need it. Close schools, and other measures could be left out... but that political decision has been made. That's the trade off. I'm not sure the balance is right, personally... closing schools for a few weeks, earlier, so that restrictions could be in place for less time and be less harsh, would have been better for many sectors and people.
Keep the measures we have currently. Different levels depending on how bad an area is. Enforce the rules in these areas, use army to help bump up our pathetic police numbers, night curfews, masks in busy, outdoor public places and in schools even and again actually enforce this stuff properly.
If an areas hospital is overwhelmed move people to other hospitals. Pay private hospitals to help.
If some areas are managing to keep their cases at manageable levels it's obviously possible and is good for people to see this as hopefully that will inspire them to get to the same place. I don't think people are going to stick to the lockdown enough to make it work. The ones who are breaking the rules now and causing spread will still do that in lockdown.
closing schools for a few weeks, earlier, so that restrictions could be in place for less time and be less harsh, would have been better for many sectors and people.
Maybe it could have been combined with planned school holidays, eh?
use army to help bump up our pathetic police numbers,
As I discovered a few months ago, that view isn't popular here. Though no one could suggest to me how rules could be effectively enforced, given that the number of people willing to bend or break the rules appears to be growing.
I think we'll find, same as last time, that the 'rules' will mostly be followed and the number of infections will stabilise and then drop.
If an areas hospital is overwhelmed move people to other hospitals. Pay private hospitals to help
Already being done. Friend of mine works in a facility that does out patient stuff for the NHS. They're re-tasked to support the nearby major hospital for minors.
I’m aware there is a very hard set group on this thread who can only see things one way so not sure there’s much point continuing to discuss here.
I agree that there may not be much point in you continuing, as you came in saying you were prepared to look at both sides of the argument, but then started using emotive language - 'locking people up', and despite relatively little engagement and pretty gentle 'What would you do then?' you've thrown in the towel. Still, it really doesn't matter what any of us here think does it? With the possible exception of TiRed 😄
If an areas hospital is overwhelmed move people to other hospitals.
This is one of the reasons why (right now) we need national measures, not just local ones. We need to look at NHS capacity as a whole. Many of the more rural areas with low incidence have rising cases, and very little capacity to deal with a bigger outbreak if they get there... and they won't be able to make use of hospitals in other regions (as they so often do in more normal years) if those regions have hospitals already at, or beyond, full capacity due to their own outbreaks.
that view isn’t popular here
It's popular with me. Having the armed forces involved would help with compliance with the rules... many people who won't listen to the police, or the council, will listen to "friendly advice" from "one of our brave boys".
Well ****ing great. A new paper ready to go to print and our publishing partner isn't answering the phone.
I've had e****ing nuff.
It’s popular with me. Having the armed forces involved would help with compliance with the rules… many people who won’t listen to the police, or the council, will listen to “friendly advice” from “one of our brave boys”.
Some long standing and normally reasonable posters on the forum tore into me with some fairly unpleasant personal remarks.
It gets too heated at times, for sure. I think I backed you up then is well. Others have good reasons to be dubious about the armed forced being involved... no need for personal attacks over it though.
that view isn’t popular here
It’s popular with me. Having the armed forces involved would help with compliance with the rules… many people who won’t listen to the police, or the council, will listen to “friendly advice” from “one of our brave boys”.
There's more than a few problems with that.
Apart from a small number of RPs and RMPs it's not like they've got thousands of "our Boys" with any sort of Police Experience, and when they've been pressed into that role before, as in NI it's been nothing short of a disaster, so short of given the Gammons a bit of a chubby, I don't see much benefit.
They also have no Police powers in the UK.
Having the Army on the streets helping to build field hospitals or helping with natural disasters has a great, positive effect on the Public. Having a Aggressively spoken (relative to most members of the public) 19 year old Squadie on every street corner asking to where you're going all the time, will have the opposite effect.
It’s popular with me. Having the armed forces involved would help with compliance with the rules… many people who won’t listen to the police, or the council, will listen to “friendly advice” from “one of our brave boys”.
Im of the opinion that this is an absolutely awful idea. The army should never be used enforce rules on the public. Im all for them offering logistic services around distribution of drugs and potentially if we need a helicopter to move someone between hospitals. But as an additional enforcement arm of the police no thanks.
so short of given the Gammons a bit of a chubby, I don’t see much benefit
This is the benefit. It's a very real benefit. It would increase compliance and buy-in with that exact demographic. "Sod what Farage says, our lads are asking us to do our bit for our country".
They also have no Police powers in the UK.
They don't need powers. They just need to be around and ask people to do their bit.
If an areas hospital is overwhelmed move people to other hospitals. Pay private hospitals to help.
You know they did that last time?
I think there is evidence that the more intensive restrictions of Tier 2 and 3 have led to a reduction of transmissions and subsequent admissions. Rates have been highest in regions with lowest restrictions, albeit from lowest levels. It takes about two weeks to see the impact. Further lockdown will reduce transmission levels universally as they did last time.
Mortality for week ending 12 days ago was about 10,700 - 700 higher than the highest value recorded in the past 10 years and 10% above expected. I expect an increase to 20-25% above normal for year. A lot better than the 200% in April!
Finally we won't have compulsory vaccinations. I'd be satisfied if we have any vaccinations! There will probably not be enough for a first round and prioritization will be necessary.
They don’t need powers. They just need to be around and ask people to do their bit.
That was my simplistic take on it too. I understand the flaws, but it's a step up from Covid Marshalls, surely 🤔
It’s popular with me. Having the armed forces involved would help with compliance with the rules… many people who won’t listen to the police, or the council, will listen to “friendly advice” from “one of our brave boys”.
When you say "friendly advice" is that like the "friendly advice" they liked to give the last time they were deployed into a significant civil emergency in the UK? This is a terrible idea and would end in mayhem, murder, acrimony, and litigation (again).
England is not NI. The comparison between being on the streets during the troubles, and politely asking Covid sceptic Brexit fans to break up their gatherings, is, quite frankly, offensive. My dad served in NI, and said it was far worse than anything he saw in multiple overseas stints in peace keeping forces for NATO, UN & others.
492 deaths reported today.
You’d need to have emergency legislation to mobilise the military onto UK streets. Quite rightly, we have strict laws on what the military can do and I don’t think telling pi$$heads to go home or making chubby gammons do some PT is what a professional military is there to do.
Using military personal during a health emergency seems entirely proportionate to me. They spend most of their time in the field saving lives… why not here? Using them for logistics rather than something some people might want to portray as “policing” (I’m not proposing that) is the way we’ll go this winter though, I’m sure.
I thought they spent most of their time in the field ending lives?
Most people think that. It’s not the case.
Finally we won’t have compulsory vaccinations. I’d be satisfied if we have any vaccinations! There will probably not be enough for a first round and prioritization will be necessary.
Ive kind of assumed first round they’ll vaccinate (if a vaccine is available) the vulnerable, those in high risk positions and any left over is a bonus.
And Anti Vaxxers later down the line assuming widespread availability will just be thrown under a bus as eradicating this is unlikely.
Considering we're the best part of a year into this thing, the idea of deploying the armed forces now with poor preperation and very limited training in working with the UK population, to deal with a shortage of police that's been completely obvious for years, is just a spectacularly awful answer. I appreciate that none of these issues are down to you, morecash 😉 But increasing the role of the forces now, without having used the last 9 months to prepare in every detail for it, would be as big a failure as any this government's made in their year of total failure.
Police numbers have actually gone up a wee bit this year! Admittedly an awful lot of those are senior officers and therefore not terribly useful for breaking up house parties but there's more officers on the street than there was this time last year. Still, rather inevitably, less than there was 10 years ago.
As Kelvin has pointed out, our armed forces are constantly involved in civilian support work across the world, it really isn't a big stretch to ask them to do it here.
So what are the alternative suggestions? Not enough Police to do it on their own. Enough people followed the guidelines to make the last lockdown work, but are we sure that that will work this time with lockdown fatigue? Not much point having rules that aren't effectively enforced, just look at driving standards.
it really isn’t a big stretch to ask them to do it here.
‘Cause international travel is banned from midnight?
Ticklish toes
Im of the opinion that this is an absolutely awful idea. The army should never be used enforce rules on the public.
Then who does?
So what are the alternative suggestions? Not enough Police to do it on their own. Enough people followed the guidelines to make the last lockdown work, but are we sure that that will work this time with lockdown fatigue?
I dunno but this seems to have disaster written across it.
Not much point having rules that aren’t effectively enforced, just look at driving standards.
I just thought the same... just had to go to the pharmacy and can't leave a bike outside this time of night and expect it to still be there so took the car.
As per last time I went free parking spaces next to Sainsbury's local and people parking on double yellow lines.
If there were no other spaces or they had to cross a road I could half see this (still a hazard but I could see it) but this is quite simply a case of knowing noone will do anything after the community enforcement idiots go home at 5:30. Not that they'd wander this far anyway ...
Myti, my view is we're too far down the road to gamble on localised restrictions working out. This time around, we've had a brief look at what the regional measures could achieve. But we went from 2k to 20k daily cases (tested) in 6 weeks, and we all know that testing was limited. As pointed out, continuing with regional means T1 areas easily get out of control, and you'd expect some transmission from T3 to T1 where people break the rules.
I don't think it's a bad thing at all to question lockdown, it's pretty punishing! I like what TiRed has said about the different options available. I want to believe ((#massiveoptimist) that evidence gathered in these phases will help the govt make better choices for LD3.
I think in Australia they deployed the army to check if people were complying with isolation orders. That would seem a fairly non-invasive and useful task.
Then who does?
The police simple.
Our armed forces are constantly involved in civilian support work across the world, it really isn’t a big stretch to ask them to do it here.
There is a difference between support work ie running supplies around the country and enforcing law by "politely asking Covid sceptic Brexit fans to break up their gatherings." (nice way to categorise people - because surly no middle class leftie would have a party...) Just imagine the scene of a few army official breaking up a party in what world would that end well.
Myti, my view is we’re too far down the road to gamble on localised restrictions working out. This time around, we’ve had a brief look at what the regional measures could achieve
I suspect we'll come out of lockdown into some form of regional Tiers as we have for another four hours. Christmas is too far away for a decent prediction! But give the lockdown 1-2 weeks for ONS data to turn over, three for admissions and four for deaths. We'll see a flattening in the all-cause mortality in week 47/48 - oooooh Christmas present. I'll take that.
As for vaccine being available - well FT are reporting AZ won't be able to deliver enough doses perhaps until 2H. Under-promise and over-deliver. That is the rule here.
The police simple.
I quite honestly can't remember the last time I saw a uniformed police officer not in a car.
Our police station for the small 100,000 borough is all but closed (just traffic now) and being moved 16 miles away which google says is 23mins without flashing lights.
Apparently some sit in the council offices during council office hours... though I've never seen one as far as I remember.
Local FB a bike was stolen from right outside the council offices today... lock cut in daylight.
So I think its an absolute fantasy they could effectively police anything in my town.
Using the army to police the lockdown is such an obviously stupid and counter-productive move that I expect it to happen any second now
Nice to see the caged mink population taking the opportunity to settle some scores with humans. Farm our fur? Well, have some of this!
I quite honestly can’t remember the last time I saw a uniformed police officer not in a car.
Our police station for the small 100,000 borough is all but closed (just traffic now) and being moved 16 miles away which google says is 23mins without flashing lights.
So rather than redistribute said police who are trained, equipped and skilled at dealing with the public your answer is... The army.
It's just an awful precedent to set.
(nice way to categorise people – because surly no middle class leftie would have a party…)
There seems to be a (weak) correlation between people being enthusiastic about Brexit, and being against the social distancing rules. Many of these people are also very pro military, and I suggested we might be more likely to get their buy-in if someone from the military had a chat to them, rather than a more formal approach from the police or local authority. I didn't mention class, or anything about left or right. Or parties.
It’s just an awful precedent to set.
The thing is... unlike "covid marshalls" or whatever Johnson invents when next under pressure... there are lots of trained people in the military that could be of use this winter... and when things get worse, they will be made use of... probably in logistics rather than mixing more generally with the public. I'd be getting them to sort out the testing sites if it was me, but have no qualms at all about them have a public presence as regards encouraging people to stick to social distancing rules.
.
There’s another angle to consider with putting the military on the streets. If we are talking about just the Army, then the obvious advantages would be to logistics, support and communication. If you need something constructed, moved or staffed, then they would be good choice, but would need at the very least a solid plan.
But... The Army, like the other arms, has seen a reduction in numbers of permanent roles and a move to bulk up the reserves (which has has questionable success). Whilst it may have a number of medical units on its books, mobilising both the regular and reserve ones would strip staff from the NHS, especially in acute care and surgical roles.
With the move to furlough, some reserve roles could actually be filled more easily, but you’d have to work out whether this counts as employment and whether to pay people furlough or military wages during that time.
Most importantly, if you want the Army on the streets, then they need to be protected just like everyone else. A half-arsed mobilisation will mean infections and then you could easily take out whole regiments.
Post-Brexit the Army will be fully employed distributing turnips to a starving population, no time to bust raves and illegal tennis foursomes.
Lockdown 2 begins. Unlike the first time the trains seem as busy as they did last week. Wondering if it will make much of a difference this time. Hope it does.